Investec slapped a BUY reco on this late yesterday whilst broker Panmure has a firm hold.


National Express Group PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Investec Securities
07-12-09 BUY 116.00 29.93 137.18 35.46

Panmure Gordon
07-12-09 HOLD 118.98 30.88 143.17 37.16

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has made a strong start to the year and remains on target to deliver its profit expectation and free cash flow and leverage targets for the year.

Total revenue was up 11% in the period Jan. 1 to April 30 on a constant currency basis, including the benefit from acquisitions and the start of German rail operations in December 2015.

After adjusting for these new operations, revenue was up 4% on an underlying basis. All divisions achieved an increase in revenue, supported by total underlying passenger growth across the Group of 3%.

HIGHLIGHTS:
* Group profit before tax is up year-on-year on a constant currency basis, despite higher bid costs and a significant increase in the c2c franchise premium.

* UK Bus had commercial revenue growth of 3%, with passenger volumes broadly flat. These results demonstrate that our partnership-based strategy continues to yield results.

* 4% underlying revenue growth in UK Coach, which was achieved despite a notable reduction in passenger numbers immediately following the terrorist attacks in Brussels in late March. Despite this, passenger volumes grew by 6% in the period. We expect revenue growth to recover from this weak April through to the half year, based on improvements starting to be seen in advance bookings.

* 7% like-for-like growth in passenger journeys at c2c. Following a surge in demand after the introduction of a new timetable in December 2015, agreement has been reached with the Department for Transport to bring 24 carriages into service later this year, three years ahead of schedule and at no net incremental cost to the Group.

* Passenger growth of 5% and revenue growth of 3% in Spain in the period, driven by further progress on Revenue Management as well as new contract wins and the acquisition of Herranz in December 2015.

* Morocco saw more than 50 million passenger journeys during the period, a growth of 11% year-on-year. Our operations in all four cities grew passengers and revenue and we now carry more passengers in Morocco than Spain.

* The North American School Bus bid season is well-progressed and has continued our very high retention rates, with 96% of contracts retained to-date. Where contracts have been renegotiated or renewed we have secured an average rate increase of 5%. This has resulted in an average increase across the entire portfolio of more than 3%. North America has had the best start to the year it has ever enjoyed, in part benefiting from less weather disruption than previous years.

* Continued growth in Transit, including securing a three year extension and $2 million of additional revenue from new routes on the largest contract acquired as part of the Trans Express purchase in June 2015.

* Successful mobilisation of German Rail operations: more than six million passengers carried already in 2016, in-line with expectations; punctuality and services operated already ahead of previous operator's performance with a steady improvement over the period. Consequently we expect our German rail operations to break even in the current year.

* Celebrated first full year of operations in Bahrain, where we now carry more than one million passengers on our buses every month.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express said it is on course to at least deliver its targets for profit, cash flow and gearing for the year.

"The Group has continued to make strong progress in the period," it said in a statement.

"Both revenue and profit are up year-on-year in constant currency, with operating profit up 9% in the third quarter driven by particularly strong performances in our overseas businesses, through both organic growth and the benefit of acquisitions.

"Year to date, like-for-like Group operating profit is 5% higher on a constant currency basis and up 12% on a reported basis, boosted by foreign currency movements on overseas earnings and after a significant increase in the c2c franchise premium."

CEO Dean Finch commented:
"With two thirds of our earnings generated outside of the UK this geographic diversity, combined with a focus on operational excellence and the deployment of technology, continues to deliver good growth, a strong cash flow and opens new market opportunities.

"We will stick to our fundamental principles of safe and punctual operations at affordable prices with particular emphasis on controlling costs to generate cash and keep fares low.

"The combination of our relatively resilient UK performance together with the strong growth we are seeing from our international operations enables us to selectively invest in growth opportunities subject to our strict financial criteria and continue to deliver attractive and sustainable returns to shareholders."

Looking for 400p here.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express Group has reached an in-principle agreement for Trenitalia, the passenger rail transportation company part of FS Italiane Group, to acquire the c2c franchise.

Completion of the acquisition is conditional upon final consent from the Department for Transport and is expected to occur within the next three to four weeks.

The total consideration is expected to be in the region of £70 million, resulting in a small net profit for National Express.

.

Blimey - that's a leap of faith!

Very slow recovery from the 2008/9 financial crisis.....Shame that brokers never give a time scale with their price predictions.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express lifted its FY statutory pretax profit by 11%, revenue by 20% and proposed dividend by 8.4% after what it called another strong performance.

"Our diversified portfolio has delivered another strong performance in 2016, with both revenue and profits up on a constant currency and statutory basis, improving returns and strong cash generation, and a growing dividend," it said.

The company had seen particularly strong growth in its overseas markets, both from acquisitions and organically.

"As we enter 2017, we have a number of tailwinds including the benefits from our successful refinancing of our bond, the full-year effect of acquisitions and lower fuel costs," it added in a statement.

National Express said it had a clear strategy for growth and remained focused on disciplined capital allocation, with a strong pipeline of opportunities for 2017 and beyond.

"The strength of our business, coupled with the removal of our c2c franchise commitments, means we are both raising our annual free cash flow guidance to £120m and we propose a 10% increase in the final dividend."

Earlier in February, National Express completed the sale of c2c to Trenitalia.

Statutory pretax profit was £136.3m, from £122.7m, while group revenue was £2.1bn, from £1.75bn. FY proposed dividend was 12.28p a share, from 11.33p.

An update on post 43 & 46.

RBC Capital Markets today reaffirms its outperform investment rating on National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX) and raised its price target to 440p (from 405p).

HSBC today (28/04/17) reaffirms its buy investment rating on National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX) and raised its price target to 440p (from 400p).

StockMarketWire.com
National Express Group said in a trading update for the period Jan. 1 to April 30 that it has maintained its strong momentum from 2016, and is on target to deliver its FY profit expectation.

There was an overall revenue increase from continuing operations of 5.4% on a constant currency basis, up 15.8% on a reported basis, benefiting from organic growth and a number of bolt-on acquisitions made last year, together with significant foreign exchange tailwinds.

"The group remains on target to deliver its profit expectation and free cash flow and leverage targets for the year," said National Express.

CEO Dean Finch was pleased National Express had maintained its strong momentum into 2017, with a good revenue performance driven by both organic growth and the benefit of our recent acquisitions.

"Our diversified portfolio is providing broad-based growth that is also providing additional opportunities for further expansion," he said.

"We will continue to focus on operational excellence to drive our growth by both delivering high standard services for our customers and generating cash and returns that we can invest in future expansion.

"These opportunities will continue to be sought in a disciplined manner and we will only pursue them if they meet our strict financial criteria. We remain on track to meet our full year profit and cash flow expectations."

JP Morgan Cazenove today upgrades its investment rating on National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX) to overweight (from neutral) and raised its price target to 404p (from 383p).

StockMarketWire.com
National Express (NEX) grew its normalised pre-tax profit by 11% at constant currency to £88.9m in the first half of the year.

Group revenues grew by 6.5% to £1.17bn.

The group increased its dividend by 10.1% to 4.26p.

The North American and ALSA divisions delivered a record half year, with profit increases of 8.2% an 9.2% respectively.

Dean Finch, National Express group chief executive, said this more than offset challenging trading in the UK.

"We continue to see the benefit of our recent acquisitions in driving good growth and creating shareholder value. These acquisitions are also helping us to expand in new growth markets, but we will remain disciplined in the opportunities we pursue," he added.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express Group said it had completed two small acquisitions in the US and Spain, while affirming that current trading conditions met its expectations.

The acquisitions, for which purchase prices weren't disclosed, included a school bus and coach business with 204 vehicles, based in Cincinnati, and a Madrid-based bus operator with 73 vehicles.

"We continued to see a good trading performance across all of our divisions during October and November, in line with the trends set out in our most recent trading update," the company said.

"We are encouraged by strong early Christmas trading in both our UK and Spanish coach businesses, with advanced sales higher than last year."

"Overall, we remain on course to deliver our profit, free cash flow and leverage targets for the full year."

StockMarketWire.com
National Express Group said an initial assessment of new US tax legislation indicated it would lead to a reduction in the company's effective tax rate from January 1 this year.

The company forecast that the rate would reduce to a percentage point figure in the low 20s, down from a previously anticipated high 20s.

"It is also expected that the measures outlined in the Act will lead to a small tax credit in 2017," the company said. "This is due to the revaluation of deferred tax balances and will be included in the group's 2017 full year results."

National Express said it closed 2017 with a continuation of the positive trading momentum identified in its December trading statement.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express made a profit before tax of £200m in 2017, up 11.7% on the previous year.

Group revenue increased by 6.1% to £2.32bn, with growth across all of the portfolio.

The group achieved particularly strong performances in both North America and ALSA, with revenues up 10.1% and 3.6% respectively.

The group's performance in the second half of 2017 in the UK reversed the declines seen in the first six months, to deliver annual revenue growth of 0.6% in the bus and coach businesses.

German rail saw a 20.4% increase in constant currency, in part due to a recognition of revenues that were not included in the 2016 accounts.

Free cash flow increased to £146.4 million (2016: £138.6m) and the group's gearing reduced to 2.3 times EBITDA.

The company is proposing a 10% increase in the final dividend to 13.51p

Deutsche Bank today reaffirms its hold investment rating on National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX) and raised its price target to 390p (from 380p).

Liberum Capital today downgrades its investment rating on National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX) to hold (from buy) and cut its price target to 410p (from 420p).