Proselenes
- 13 Aug 2011 04:53
.
kimoldfield
- 23 Apr 2012 08:12
- 371 of 2393
Cynic, for first thing in the morning that's a cracker! :o)
aldwickk
- 23 Apr 2012 08:20
- 372 of 2393
Its the way he tell's them
kimoldfield
- 23 Apr 2012 09:02
- 373 of 2393
So it is!
aldwickk
- 23 Apr 2012 09:25
- 374 of 2393
So it is , Frank Carson New's at Ten
Proselenes
- 23 Apr 2012 12:52
- 375 of 2393
From Merchant Securities, and I agree very much with the last part ref-FOGL
Borders & Southern Petroleum (BOR.L) Oil & Gas
UNDER REVIEW
Darwin well makes gas condensate discovery
Borders & Southern announced a “significant gas condensate discovery”. Good hydrocarbon shows were encountered from 4,633m down to 4,810m. Net pay of 67.8m was encountered (above the 55m pre-drill estimate). Average porosity is 22%. The company will be able to comment on the liquid content of the reservoir after fluid samples are analysed.
The question now becomes one of assessing whether the liquid content in the gas will be sufficient for the reservoir to be commercially viable on a liquids-only basis. We are very cautious about arriving too early at a positive conclusion for the commerciality of the condensates. At present, we are reluctant to ascribe value to the gas discovery. We keep an open mind for this eventuality, especially given the excellent quality of the reservoir (high recovery rates) and the liquids rich nature of the gas.
; The presence of condensate confirms that the South Falkland basin is conducive to the generation of liquid hydrocarbons. However, due to the close proximity of the Darwin and Stebbing prospects we believe that the probability of finding gas condensate at Stebbing has increased and the probability of finding black oil has decreased.
The read across for Falkland Oil & Gas is somewhat more positive to the extent that the larger scale prospects of Falkland Oil & Gas would make a liquefied natural gas project more viable. We also note that Falkland Oil & Gas has prospects which are deeper into the area that is conducive to oil generation.
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 13:22
- 376 of 2393
there is no shortage of gas worldwide especially in the US, it may wll be the case that the huge cost of development and extraction will mean this discovery has little or no commercial value.
cynic
- 23 Apr 2012 13:42
- 377 of 2393
hali - i think you're right; see also my comment just posted on BOR
cynic
- 23 Apr 2012 13:53
- 378 of 2393
have bitten the bullet on these too ..... if i read correctly, fogl's drilling prog is now delayed 6 weeks, so there is little immediate upside with the bor find now pretty much confirmed as just gas (condensate) - it's in the wrong region i'm afraid
Proselenes
- 23 Apr 2012 14:13
- 379 of 2393
Bought another 26K FOGL just now. Bought more BOR earlier at 87p.
There is MORE news to come from BOR, imo.
cynic
- 23 Apr 2012 14:18
- 380 of 2393
i don't dispute that there's more news to come, but unless it's a confirmation of oil, and at least a fair bit of it, then ..... :-(
required field
- 23 Apr 2012 14:28
- 381 of 2393
My portfolio is starting to turn into these.....could not resist ....so I snapped up some more....
Proselenes
- 23 Apr 2012 14:42
- 382 of 2393
Well, I now hold 326K fully paid for FOGL's :)
Proselenes
- 23 Apr 2012 15:32
- 383 of 2393
Summary of the BOR broker comments today.
From Merchant Securities, and I agree very much with the last part ref-FOGL
Borders & Southern Petroleum (BOR.L) Oil & Gas
UNDER REVIEW
Darwin well makes gas condensate discovery
Borders & Southern announced a “significant gas condensate discovery”. Good hydrocarbon shows were encountered from 4,633m down to 4,810m. Net pay of 67.8m was encountered (above the 55m pre-drill estimate). Average porosity is 22%. The company will be able to comment on the liquid content of the reservoir after fluid samples are analysed.
The question now becomes one of assessing whether the liquid content in the gas will be sufficient for the reservoir to be commercially viable on a liquids-only basis. We are very cautious about arriving too early at a positive conclusion for the commerciality of the condensates. At present, we are reluctant to ascribe value to the gas discovery. We keep an open mind for this eventuality, especially given the excellent quality of the reservoir (high recovery rates) and the liquids rich nature of the gas.
; The presence of condensate confirms that the South Falkland basin is conducive to the generation of liquid hydrocarbons. However, due to the close proximity of the Darwin and Stebbing prospects we believe that the probability of finding gas condensate at Stebbing has increased and the probability of finding black oil has decreased.
The read across for Falkland Oil & Gas is somewhat more positive to the extent that the larger scale prospects of Falkland Oil & Gas would make a liquefied natural gas project more viable. We also note that Falkland Oil & Gas has prospects which are deeper into the area that is conducive to oil generation.
-----------------------
Part of the Canaccord note:
"The overall structure is large and the seismic anomaly covers 26km2, so the company believes Darwin East is likely to contain significant volumes.
The well will be shortly plugged and abandoned and the rig will then move to the Stebbing location for the second well in the programme, which we expect to take 45- 60 days to drill.
The discovery of hydrocarbons to the south of the Falkland Islands is a very positive step. However, there is clearly much to do to understand the liquids content of the samples and this find, and then to extrapoloate that information to the other nearby prospects and leads. That process is likely to take several months. In the meantime, the market can only speculate on the possibility of Darwin being a commercial discovery. What is certain, is that the company will seek to expand its exploration campaign (perhaps this year, but certainly next) and will likely need to appraise the Darwin East discovery. That would imply additional financing will be required. Investors may want to wait for that, or at least greater clarity on the find.
Valuation at present is nearly impossible. However, given the potential of Darwin and the remaining portfolio, we believe a revised and increased target price of 150p/share is reasonable (previously 100p/share). That equates to around 225 mmbbls contingent liquids resources based on the current market rating for Rockhopper (US$4.5/bbl)."
------------------------
From FD's daily monitor:
Borders and Southern (BOR LN, 100.5p, ▼ 23.3%) - Oil? Gas? Does it Matter:
Today's news is a terrific technical success, and one that the Company should be proud of; they announce the arrival of a new hydrocarbon basin, the South Falklands Basin ("SFB") and given that it contains gas and condensate, these results suggest thermal maturity (thermo genic gas opposed to biogenic gas which tends to be drier). Now for the cloud with the silver lining.
A technical discovery is a long way from a commercial discovery, and while the shares will be marked upwards, as they have been already, if predominantly gas the find will have a long wait for commercialisation, if it is commercial at all. On the back of this news, we are raising our price target from 150p to 220p and reiterating our BUY recommendation, but proffer a note of caution.
A gas find will not be what the market is looking for, and there may well be weakness in the share price as a result. In this news:
Good hydrocarbon shows from 4,633m down to 4,810m
The main reservoir interval, comprising good quality massive sandstone, was found to be 84.5m thick with net pay of 67.8m.
Average porosity for this interval is 22%, with maximum values reaching 30%.
Fluid samples from the reservoir have been recovered and will be brought back to the UK for analysis.
Once the lab analysis is complete and the results integrated with other data collected from the well, the Company will be able to comment on the liquid content of the reservoir
Too early to give an accurate resource estimate, but this large simple structure
Seismic amplitude anomaly measuring 26sq km
---------------------
Target price upgrade to 450p a share.
Borders & Southern – Darwinian revolution....Mirabaud
Today Borders & Southern Petroleum announced a basin-opening gas-condensate discovery at the Darwin East exploration well – the first ever deep water well in the South Falkland Basin (SFB). Borders’ 61/17-1 well encountered 68m of net hydrocarbon pay in a good quality (up to 30% porosity), shallow marine reservoir which corresponds directly to the area of high amplitude identified on 3D seismic data pre drill.
Although the exact liquids content of the discovery remains unclear at this stage, the structure covers some 26 sq km and our back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the field could contain c.480 mmboe of recoverable condensate and gas. Furthermore, looking forward there are numerous lookalike prospects across Border’s acreage with similar structural and seismic attributes that have been materially de-risked as a result, and we would point to the success of explorers offshore East Africa as an example of how a string of remote gas discoveries can lead to the creation of very substantial value utilising a cluster LNG approach.
Overall, we view the results of Darwin East as a promising start to the current SFB drilling campaign and maintain our BUY recommendation on an upgraded target price of 450p/shr – offering some 266% upside to Friday’s close.
Proselenes
- 23 Apr 2012 17:15
- 384 of 2393
I have put the Darwin, Stebbing, Loligo and Scotia locations on here.
As you can see Darwin is prime for gas. Stebbing is more likely to be oil
Loligo and Scotia targets for FOGL are in the oil window - much more likely to be oil
.
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 17:17
- 385 of 2393
rampety, rampety, ramp........boring.
required field
- 23 Apr 2012 17:55
- 386 of 2393
It's far from boring halifax.....this is great stuff.....wait till it's FOGL's turn....the targets are of Saudi size....!.
halifax
- 23 Apr 2012 17:56
- 387 of 2393
rf you mean like big fat arabs?
required field
- 23 Apr 2012 17:57
- 388 of 2393
Driving Ferraries and Porskies......yeah.....
cynic
- 23 Apr 2012 18:02
- 389 of 2393
MrP - unless I am much mistaken, one of the anlayst reports you quoted (Merchant Securities) said that Stebbing was now (even) LESS likely to have oil than previously thought
Proselenes
- 23 Apr 2012 18:17
- 390 of 2393
Stebbing is inside the oil window (Darwin is inside the gas window). So it will really depend on whats been happening with the geology.
Stebbing has the same source rock which has produced oil for Darwin, but this oil is now condensate.
Has Stebbing also been overcooked ? or still oil ?
We will know in about 6 to 7 weeks time.
Pre-drill, even though they share the same source rock, BOR were predicting if oil is found then Darwin would be 32API and Stebbing would be 25API.
Stebbing is shallower and has had different conditions to Darwin, its oil mature and potentially 25API, if there is any.