Hi all
pretty new to all this. I have pumped some into Deltex - looks like a strong product with good growth. Could be a steady gainer.
Does anyone else have this, and anyone have some research on it? Someone with more experience than me!
thanks in advance.
Grajul

Upbeat mention in shares today.
2517

Yet another contract. It's not the tiny number of CardioQ's thats important, its the foot in the door of yet another hospital.
Also teaching hospitals are ideal for spreading the word, via those going out into the medical world.
This share is like a bolder stuck on a hill, very hard to move, but once it starts to roll, try stopping it.

greekman do you know how many probes are used per operation, I recollect each probe costs 60 to the end user, so how much profit per probe for DEMG any ideas. Thanks
2517

Hi George,

According to Deltex Corporate ( spoke to a very helpful lady ) it's 1 per operation.

She also informed me there are 3 different probes.

A 6 hour probe for short operations.
A 12 hour probe for longer ops.
A 10 day probe for ICU.

From the latest NHS figures, they carry out 7 million operations per year, so with ICU probes the profit per year could be substantial and thats just probes for the NHS.
So with the whole world as there potential customer, the profit from monitors and probes looks nice and juicy.

As a foot note.

I contact several companies per year re my shares and can say that very few are as forthcoming and as helpful as the lady I spoke to.

Thanks greekman, according to shares mag yesterday there are in excess of 1250 Cardio Q units in use in hospitals worldwide, and I just wondered how many probes were used because they generate profit for the co. Like you say the potential is substantial, and small contract wins such as Iraq and Berlin recently all help to spread the word. I contacted Andy Hill last year and was impressed myself, so I think the co does it's best to keep investors informed.
2517

Cheers for that,

With no competition, if Deltex expand to full extent, ie today GB, Europe, tomorrow the world, (OK perhaps getting carried away), but I wonder how many ops world wide are carried out per year. Things definitely on the move, even if it's not yet the sp.
The saying....When the sleeping giant awakes, could be apt re this share price.

Makes a nice change to see recent developments are a step in the right direction. Will be interesting to see how these translate to the profit and loss account. I fear it will take Deltex to at least breakeven with a minimal gearing before the markets wake up. at the moment yes this is a potential giant with a rather nasty bug that requires fixing first!!

Re the RNS placing and offer.

Don't mind raising of extra cash if it's for good reasons, and this appears to be so in this case.
The amount to be raised is low and will increase shares in issue by about 2.4%, which wont by itself make much difference to the sp.
Also the pricing is same as yesterdays close which leads me to believe they expect the sp to gain prior to the dealing date of the 21st. Not often the offer price is same of current sp.
I except that an open offer would not be practical for Deltex due to the said small amount of shares involved.
Deltex appear to be keeping ahead of the game.
Better to for-see potential future problems before they arise, IE personal use of the probes.
Let's hope the market agree with my views.

RNS....Very good news. This will completely open up the US market (roll on the 60 days). It will enable the CardioQ to be promoted with a no cash loss per unit by medical establishments in the USA, not to mention the cash saving benefits from the shorter hospital stays, less deaths and the fewer re admissions.
No wonder Deltex required the recent cash raising.

I expect the sp to creep northward for the next few weeks, then if the decision goes the way it looks, this must start to fly.

As regular followers of this thread know, I don't often allow my enthusiasm to show through, (re my comment " this must start to fly) but I feel this is a very important mile stone.

If all goes well re the reimbursement, I think that a 100% sp increase is easily attainable within 12 months.

IMHO of course

This is absolutely fantastic news.

There must be some major U.S. orders in the pipeline. U.S. hospitals know what this means and will now be more keen to buy. The U.S. Veterans Association has already been using the CardioQ, so this may prompt them to buy more.

Hi Arf,

Long time no hear.

Looks like closing 1.25p up. With the state of the UK and US markets any rise is good. Deltex is one of the very few showing blue today, in a sea of red.
Now where did my missus leave her cheque book!

THE COUNT--->ALL

I have read many posts on here which make the argument that if the technology is so great, which I am sure all are agreed on at least, then health services should be falling over themselves to implement the technology within a very short space of time.

Intuitively, that makes sense, especially to investors who are naturally optimistic.

The reality is very different, but it still doesn't mean it's the end of the world. Time frames for implementation are the only overestimate, and the length of time required for a normally conservative medical establishment to be convinced beyond a 'tipping point'.

If you all read the following excellent article by the FD, it should make things a lot clearer. There is also much in there that should read very bullishly.

The article can be found at.....

http://www.reducinglengthofstay.org/doc/ontarget.pdf

Each and every clinical study merely reinforces the argument and brings the day closer that this technology becomes the adopted standard of care, not just in the UK, but in all other 1st world territories as well.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

I think we all except that for the immediate to mid term, the future for the CardioQ is not via the NHS, but Europe, and the USA.
They may have to wait for sales of any volume in the NHS till next year and beyond.
The NHS can not go on the way it is. It MUST improve in many areas, mainly giving more value for money,IE less waste. It must either improve or disappear in it's current mode.
My own personal view is it will become similar to several countries Health Services, including the USA (similar but not exactly to the US model), part national, part private.
Whichever way it goes, it will be good for Deltex.
Never been so bullish for this share.

THE COUNT--->GREEKMAN

Despite the problems with the NHS, they are still by far the largest user of oesophaegeal doppler for fluid optimisation on the planet and, despite cash constraints, DEMG sales to them are increasing by about 25% pa.

Imagine what could happen if the purse strings were loosened a little to start fulfilling some of that pent up clinical demand (UK doctors that want to use the probes NOW but can't get finance for them) that is running at about a factor of 10 above actual present sales.

And whatever we say about the UK and its attitude to technology, the UK, as DEMG keep on telling me, is the world leader in the use of haemodynamic optimisation.

What we should now have, is the UK model rolled out into the USA and Europe as well. We wil get there eventually, either at a bit more than snail's pace, or some single catalyst could really make this one explode.

Regards,

THE COUNT!

Hi Count,
Fully agree. It is mainly the next couple of years I was referring to. This is when I feel the percentage of use of the doppler in the NHS will drop compared to the rest of the world, even allowing for a steady NHS use increase.
The UK has always been know as a world leader in many innovations. A huge percentage of these new products, technologies don't get the backing they deserve and end up taking off (because of foreign money) in these other countries. The UK then play catch up.
May be too early to judge, but already looking like another good day for the sp.

Cheers Greek

Duplicate Post

THE COUNT--->GREEKMAN

The following article in THE INDEPENDENT may just have something to do with it. Well, I doubt it will have harmed it.

The broker Charles Stanley reiterated its "strong buy" advice on Deltex Medical Group after Tuesday's preliminary decision to reimburse doctors their time and for the use of the company's blood fluid monitoring system. The broker believes that the ruling could be "company transforming" in the longer term as there is now an incentive for doctors to use the product, which has been clinically proved. The broker believes that the company could get taken over at anywhere between 50p and 100p. Despite the note, the stock closed a quarter of a penny worse at 17.5p.


Regards,

THE COUNT!

Usually take brokers advice with a good pinch of salt, but in this case all the indications are there.
I saw their report and the bit ,"that the ruling could be "company transforming" in the longer term says it all.
I would think the institutions will be keeping a keen eye on this and hopefully those already in will increasing their holdings. Also be nice to see others jumping on board.

THE COUNT--->ALL

The analyst at Charles Stanley has updated a paragraph in his guidance note yesterday which should excite most of you pop pickers out there.

Here are his words verbatim....


Why this may be transformational.

Prior to this announcement, we had considered that the long term potential for the Group was excellent based on the premise that market penetration would gradually increase and that revenues could increase by around 30% compound. That assumed that the status quo would be maintained and that the market penetration in the USA would also increase gradually. However, in the first public consultation period, although there were only four comments from physicians, these were all positive. In particular, twp physicians stated that, in their view, the Deltex ODM was more efficient and safer to use than the pulmonary artery catheter which is in common use in the US as physicians receive substantial sums in reimbursement for its use. One physician stated that he was able to optimise patients for some surgeries to the point that ICU (Intensive Care Unit) care was no longer the routine but the exception. As the ICU is expensive, that should lead to substantial savings for medical insurers.

With evidence such as this, we consider reimbursement (because of the potential savings) could be significant and that growth in the US from 2008 could be faster than we had anticipated. We also consider that the possibility of a large medical device company wishing to acquire the group has been increased.

We reiterate our Strong Buy opinion to clients who understand the risks of investing in small companies.



There, that reads pretty well on such a horrible day in the markets, doesn't it?

Regards,

THE COUNT!

I've been looking at this lot. Could be one for the SIPP for me.