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The latest 2012 preliminary statement from this engineering services provider to the international oil and gas industry shows its new management team achieving a platform for recovery after serial woes last year. The FTSE SmallCap shares in Lamprell (LAM) are testing 150p, up at least 50% since I featured them as a recovery play for 2013, then reiterated it in January following news of waivers on bank covenants.
While the pick was a good one - an essentially sound business with actionable temporary problems - the turnaround is also benefiting from "a robust and expansive oil and gas industry" and the shares' rally also from the "risk-on" sentiment fuelled partly by quantitative easing. This has largely anaesthetised markets against ongoing global risks, yet as the news over Cyprus shows, some are inflammable. Operationally and financially the business appears to have passed its nadir, so the main future risk is whether the oil and gas industry gets hit by external factors.
Lamprell financial highlights Year to 31 December 2012 2011
Revenue ($ million) 1,045.50 1,147.90
Operating loss/profit ($m) -84.5 90.2
Loss/profit before income tax and before exceptional items ($m) -105 74
Loss/profit before income tax and after exceptional items ($m) -109.7 63.5
Loss/profit after income tax ($m) -110.5 63.3
Diluted loss/earnings per share (US cents) -42.4 26.5
Net cash/debt as at 31 December ($m) 104.1 -101.7
Dividend per share (US cents) 0 8
In terms of limiting downside risk, there is an equivalent 47.2p a share of net tangible assets, although the real prop is customers' confidence after last year's publicity over mismanaged contracts.
This is shown by new contracts with an aggregate value of $930 million (£614 million) last year supporting a current backlog (order book) of $1.3 billion and a bid pipeline of $4.1 billion. Just recently the Jindal Group has entered a second jack-up rig contract, which underlines market credibility. The preliminary statement notes a joint venture for land drilling rig services in Saudi Arabia, "enhancing our strong presence in that market... we plan to leverage our long-term relationships with our Saudi partners and our well-established expertise in the land rig sector".
A new chief executive and finance director are now in place and there has been a clean sweep of the previous senior management team - a desirable yet rarely achieved goal in recovery situations. Usually certain individuals are kept under the guise of ensuring continuity and because wholesale replacement is difficult and expensive; however this may not achieve a break with the past.
Yet Lamprell appears to have achieved such in four months, with a new organisational structure prioritising project management and execution aligned with reporting structures. This should cut, if not eliminate, nasty surprises.
While the losses story conveys "Lamprell in the red" with no dividend, this is historic news, hence the shares firming near 150p despite wider market falls. Bear in mind that projections are difficult at this stage and what forecasts exist do not anticipate significant profit; hence the forward price/earnings multiple is currently high, over 20 times. This reflects the board's expectation for 2013 as "a recovery year, with stable revenues as compared to 2012 and a gradual return to profitability during the year". Timing issues make it hard to determine whether profit or loss will result but the circa 50% re-rating in the shares shows the market recognises the stepping stones put in place.
Recent broker views and targets are mixed, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch (the company's broker) upgrading from 140p to 180p and advising 'buy' while JP Morgan Cazenove reiterates 'underweight' with a 114p target. Yet this is typical of a situation where brokers promoting the shares became embarrassed and moved on, such that the company is left with its own in support and others cautious.
Besides ongoing contract news, a restructure of debt facilities with revised covenants is the next milestone to watch for, although the preliminary statement does not give clues as to timing. The profile of borrowings is short term, however they have been cut from $251.1 million to $159.3 million in context of balance sheet cash up from $149.4 million to $263.4 million, which altogether removes the risk of catastrophic loss to shareholders - among the reasons for a sub-70p share price low last year. The rather rapid improvement in the debt/cash profile also shows Lamprell's problems as relatively short term and manageable.
The new team looks to be defining the art of the modern turnaround; I believe doubts that remain relate more to general industry risk (according to global economics and politics). Among reasons for the decline in 2012 turnover was a substantial fall in the renewables segment which saw lower activity, not solely delays in Lamprell's execution. Yet offshore platform construction saw an approximate trebling of revenue and it is likely going to need some major geopolitical event to compromise momentum in oil and gas activity.
I would therefore distinguish Lamprell from the kind of recovery shares that can be a flash in the new year pan - rising with the classic January risk rally then reversing. This happens when the industry involved remains weak, company finances challenged and past cultures/people continue.
While this set of results is red-inked, it crucially underlines a radical departure from the past, and in a healthy industry, hence patient shareholders should continue to be rewarded.