New Projects and good prospects. will be the winner in 2004. IMO
25p in early 2004

Morning all,

Saw this yesterday from the Sundat Business Post:

High-risk oil shares may pay off

01/08/04 00:00

By Eamon Quinn
Surging crude oil prices and positive news announcements sent Irish oil explorers' shares gushing to all-time highs last week, but analysts and industry observers are divided on whether the high-risk bets will continue to pay out.

The junior oil sector has been the star performer and has continued to attract investor interest through the summer as stock market returns have flagged.

At $41 a barrel, world crude oil prices peaked at a new 21-year high last week, underlining that high energy costs are here to stay.

Despite more oil being pumped from the Saudi Arabia-led Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and by Russia, the world's second largest exporter, hedge fund investors have bet that the major oil producers will fail to pump enough oil for long enough to cap prices.





High prices have sparked a new investor oil rush and the winners on stock markets have been many energy exploration companies which have advanced plans to drill for new reserves.

``It's a very exciting area,'' said Stuart Draper, head of research at Dolmen Securities.

``There are a number around which will likely pick up because many of these companies have the cash raised to do the drilling.

``High energy prices have helped their valuations and any success, given that they are drilling now, will be rewarded,'' he said. Draper has ranked the prospects of the Irish energy explorers in the following order: Petroceltic International, Pan Andean and Providence Resources.

Petroceltic shares, which have more than tripled this year, hit a new all-time high last week of 18.5 pence sterling after the company won a ``milestone'' contract in Algeria.

The company, which has extended its reach beyond offshore Ireland, has promising interests in Tunisia and Italy where it will start drilling later this year. Its shares soared last June when it acquired stakes in two Italian oil permits.

``I think it has further to go on low-risk prospects,'' said Draper. ``It has good management and attractive deal potential. The exciting one this year is Tunisia where they are drilling this autumn and the really exciting one is their ability to use equity they have now to buy in some attractive assets.''

Petroceltic told its shareholders last April that its evaluation of the Sidi Toui oil prospect in Tunisia was ``very encouraging'' and that it was looking to fast track the development of a prospect at the Old Head of Kinsale in the Celtic Sea.

However, it will not start drilling there this year. Draper forecasts the stock could rise as high as 30 pence sterling by the end of the year if drilling in Tunisia proves positive.

Industry participants caution that buying assets in North Africa and other relatively risk-free Mediterranean countries attracted other exploration companies and that the price of acquiring assets could be high as a result.

Draper rates Pan Andean Resources, the company chaired by John Teeling, as the second best prospect among the junior Irish energy explorers.

The company has interests at Danbury Dome in on-shore Texas. It also linked to a BP-owned company in Bolivia, where it is likely to announce soon that it will start drilling, according to industry sources.

``It's cash flow positive and it makes profits. It has exciting exploration acreage in on-shore Texas and there are rumours that will get the Bolivian assets off the ground,'' said Draper. He forecasts the share price, which was trading last week at 14.75 pence sterling, could reach the mid-20s by the end of the year.

Pan Andean shares, which have risen 34 per cent this year, have fallen back from the all-time high of 24.75 pence they hit in late February.

Draper ranks Providence Resources, third among the Irish energy explorers. It is a riskier investment because the prospects for the company, whose major shareholder is Tony O'Reilly, lies with the success of this year's drilling in Blackrock off Cork.

Providence shares, which have climbed 66 per cent this year, hit an all-time high of 6.5 cent in Dublin last Friday.

``If it is successful it will be fantastic. If it is a failure then they will be struggling. The price could be into the double digits given a successful outcome in Blackrock,'' said Draper.

Among the higher risk bets, Petrel Resources is hoping that its hard and dangerous work in Iraq will pay off. Petrel chairman John Teeling and chief executive David Horgan told shareholders last week the company is focusing on two of three bids to develop oil fields in northern and mid-Iraq.

News of whether Petrel has won the contracts will be known soon. Petrel shares have climbed 87 per cent this year to 46 pence sterling. The shares had hit a record high of 52 pence in mid-July.

PCI get a write up on Oil Barrel this morning re the Algerian deal. Worth reading.

http://www.oilbarrel.com/home.html

Moving up again now. MM's bought at 16.5, now 16.5 on the bid.

Can someone post the article from Oil Barrel pls. I cant access somehow

Here it is Xmortal:

09.08.2004
Petroceltic Boosts Its International Standing With Algerian Acreage Award
Petroceltic International has, in the words of chairman Brain Cusack, “bought itself a seat at the big card table” with the award of the Isarene Permit in Algeria’s fifth international licensing round. London AIM-quoted Petroceltic has scored a real coup in picking up the 10,000 sq km permit in the Illizi Basin in southern Algeria to join the other bid round winners: international oil majors Statoil, Sinopec, BHP/Woodside, Amerada Hess and Repsol.

“We are really chuffed with ourselves,” Cusack told oilbarrel.com. “This is a company-transforming deal.”

Six wells have already been drilled on the permit, flowing gas at rates of up to 25 million cubic feet per day of gas from several Palaeozoic reservoirs. Wells drilled in the northern portion of the permit found oil.

Algerian state energy giant Sonatrach reckons the acreage contains existing discovered reserves of 380 billion cubic feet of gas and 28 million barrels of oil plus possible resources in excess of 4 trillion cubic feet of gas and more than 400 million barrels of oil.

Cusack reckons the Petroceltic team will hit the ground running in Algeria because of the work already undertaken by Sonatrach over the acreage.

“The project has already seen a lot of money invested so our lead in time is that much shorter,” said Cusack. “There has already been 9,000 km of 2D and a total of 16 wells drilled, of which 6 were discoveries. And there’s another 500 km 2D shoot underway on the block now that will be handed to us too. It means we are now ready to walk in and press the button.”

The target reservoirs are at shallow drilling depths and within 100 km of established gas infrastructure. The Illizi Basin is home to giant oil and gas fields, including the producing Tin Fouye Tabenkort oil and gas field which lies 100 km to the north of the Isarene Permit.

Petroceltic will hold 75 per cent of the equity in the permit with Sonatrach holding the remaining 25 per cent. The production sharing contract terms include a commitment to drill one well. Petroceltic said it plans to drill “a number of wells” in 2005.

Algeria makes a strong addition to the fast-growing Petroceltic portfolio, which has already attracted investor attention with its highly prospective acreage in Tunisia. A number of independent companies, most notably Canada’s First Calgary Petroleums, have transformed their fortunes through successful exploration work in the prolific desert sands of the North African country. Algeria produces 1.2 million barrels of oil per day and boasts gas production capacity of 2.9 trillion cubic feet of gas per year. It is the second largest producer of LNG in the world and supplies 25 per cent of the EU’s gas imports.

I feel I bought back in at the right time but these are so jumpy at the mo. My holding is such that I'm getting a bit worried about a pending holiday....the thing is with my stop losses is I like to 'change' them, te he :>)

so whats the story on this - oil prices rising - good short and long term prospects - lots of drilling news soon - yet the share has dropped back? Is this MM moving it back to buy in cheaper - do we hang on for the next surge?

m100

There is a good chance they will go back up at some point, but whether they stay there is another matter. My guess is that the current base is 15p, mainly because that is where the institutions were buying. I can't see them going much cheaper with drilling about to start. I sold at 18p and have just started buying back on the fall. These are all puff and wind until they hit some oil, and the puff seems to be mainly coming from the management. If you have them, always keep one eye on the exit is my opinion because they don't come with a three year warrenty.

If you want a more solid based investment there is always PRE, which is cash generative and has prospects similar to PCI. I bought some more this morning and I don't think they will drop much now because they have started drilling in SA and have a big chance with their Texas program.

Any opinions welcomed. I will be delighted to have my mind changed if it stops me losing money!

2 large delayed buys just went through, wonder if news may be released soon. Looks as if the drop earlier may just have been MM tactics to shake some out then drop the price.

chinapete
I could have sold at 18p - so regret that - but thought they would go higher given the current oil scenario - surprised they are not around 20p
the algerian project has (allegedly) 30% strike rate - so they seem to be in the right area - well - drill enough holes and you are bound to hit something!
might as well hold on for a while

m100

Have I missed something....PCI are no puff in the wind.

I took the plunge with PCI Nov last year and have been watching them very carefully, ups and downs and all......it did take a knocking earlier today but be assured it's an excellent bet....... PCI will be heading for new highs soon, when is the question, patience is the game.......but expect the unexpected......as it will happen..... I suggest you hold, you will be rewarded......For PRE, are they worth a punt?? I need convincing... eg, @ 31/5/04 - PRE 14.5p, PCI 7.5p!!!! no way does PRE match the huge rewards and potential that awaits PCI around the corner......PCI will be BIG and is a classic success story waiting to unfold!!

interesting reading that oil barrel piece on pci , i am presentlu not holding any shares in this company but i will very soon as the algerian licence alone looks ominous. Apart from hnr (hardman resources) this company is the best oil stock in the sector for growth potential .

regards bowman

Good to see the bounce back from the fall early today and the large trades near the close. Hopefully will set things up nicely for tomorrow.

rooandu
it was chinapete who referred to wind, pre etc, my comment was that PCI should be higher given the market, just want to make a modest small profit, wish I had bought at 7.5p!

m100

no probs.......we are all waaiting to hear of the Tunisian status.... drilling schedule etc....it's all about patience...... but they will be moving north soon" I could of bailed out months ago on PCI's impressive performance but I did'nt on the basis that they have fantastic potential.......I am holding tight!!! and no way will sell at this stage. A great buying opp was yesterday when they slid back to c.15p with excellent short term returns in the offering, how short, well, that's the question, only time will tell!! expect the unexpected...

Rooandu - agree with what you said. I'm not interested in selling at 18p, holding out for a much better price hopefully. Could have sold at 18 and bought back yesterday and increased the amount of shares I have. But im not a trader, would rather hold than trade. Lots of potential here re Tunisia and Algeria. The problem with trading a share like this is what happens if you are on the sidelines waiting to buy in and news is released, sp will be moved up very quickly if news is good and you end up paying more to get back in.

"The problem with trading a share like this is what happens if you are on the sidelines waiting to buy in and news is released, sp will be moved up very quickly if news is good and you end up paying more to get back in."

A very good point. I am holding a core block of x shares and trading up to an additional 2x.

If they start to rise the whole 2x goes in and 1.5x is sold if they make a decent (20+) price, cutting the potential reward if they soar, but also cutting the risk of major losses on a very chancy share. If they hit 15p, and they're heading that way, I am going in with the 2x because I don't see them getting much cheaper.

That's my theory, for what it's worth.

Chinapete - thats a good strategy. You probably hold a lot more shares than I do so what you're saying makes a lot of sense re risk/reward. I got in at 7ish and more at 11ish so am happy holding right now. Right now, Im happy with my level of risk/reward in this share. Should that change, I would probably sell some but keep some as well.

Ther seems to be support at the 15+ level today. Anyone got an opinion on when we might get some drilling news?

Chinapete - I emailed the company this morning asking if drilling had started or if not, could they give me a date when they would be starting. Not had a reply yet. When I get one I will post here with any details. As far as I know, drilling was meant to start in Aug, but read in a few places that it might be in Sept.

This is part of an article dated 30/6/04 from Oil Barrel.com:
"The new acreage fits well with the companys existing properties offshore Ireland and onshore Tunisia. These are exiting times for the company, said Cusack, with drilling expected to get underway on two structures in the 7,000 sq km Ksar Hadada exploration concession in southern Tunisia within the next six to eight weeks. The drilling campaign in Tunisia has the potential to transform Petroceltic: the Sidi Toui structure alone could hold up to 400 million barrels of recoverable light crude."

So perhaps drilling will start end Aug start Sept at the latest.

Cheers

Gav