.

My portfolio is starting to turn into these.....could not resist ....so I snapped up some more....

Well, I now hold 326K fully paid for FOGL's :)

Summary of the BOR broker comments today.



From Merchant Securities, and I agree very much with the last part ref-FOGL


Borders & Southern Petroleum (BOR.L) Oil & Gas
UNDER REVIEW

Darwin well makes gas condensate discovery

Borders & Southern announced a “significant gas condensate discovery”. Good hydrocarbon shows were encountered from 4,633m down to 4,810m. Net pay of 67.8m was encountered (above the 55m pre-drill estimate). Average porosity is 22%. The company will be able to comment on the liquid content of the reservoir after fluid samples are analysed.

The question now becomes one of assessing whether the liquid content in the gas will be sufficient for the reservoir to be commercially viable on a liquids-only basis. We are very cautious about arriving too early at a positive conclusion for the commerciality of the condensates. At present, we are reluctant to ascribe value to the gas discovery. We keep an open mind for this eventuality, especially given the excellent quality of the reservoir (high recovery rates) and the liquids rich nature of the gas.

; The presence of condensate confirms that the South Falkland basin is conducive to the generation of liquid hydrocarbons. However, due to the close proximity of the Darwin and Stebbing prospects we believe that the probability of finding gas condensate at Stebbing has increased and the probability of finding black oil has decreased.

The read across for Falkland Oil & Gas is somewhat more positive to the extent that the larger scale prospects of Falkland Oil & Gas would make a liquefied natural gas project more viable. We also note that Falkland Oil & Gas has prospects which are deeper into the area that is conducive to oil generation.

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Part of the Canaccord note:

"The overall structure is large and the seismic anomaly covers 26km2, so the company believes Darwin East is likely to contain significant volumes.
The well will be shortly plugged and abandoned and the rig will then move to the Stebbing location for the second well in the programme, which we expect to take 45- 60 days to drill.

The discovery of hydrocarbons to the south of the Falkland Islands is a very positive step. However, there is clearly much to do to understand the liquids content of the samples and this find, and then to extrapoloate that information to the other nearby prospects and leads. That process is likely to take several months. In the meantime, the market can only speculate on the possibility of Darwin being a commercial discovery. What is certain, is that the company will seek to expand its exploration campaign (perhaps this year, but certainly next) and will likely need to appraise the Darwin East discovery. That would imply additional financing will be required. Investors may want to wait for that, or at least greater clarity on the find.

Valuation at present is nearly impossible. However, given the potential of Darwin and the remaining portfolio, we believe a revised and increased target price of 150p/share is reasonable (previously 100p/share). That equates to around 225 mmbbls contingent liquids resources based on the current market rating for Rockhopper (US$4.5/bbl)."

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From FD's daily monitor:

Borders and Southern (BOR LN, 100.5p, ▼ 23.3%) - Oil? Gas? Does it Matter:

Today's news is a terrific technical success, and one that the Company should be proud of; they announce the arrival of a new hydrocarbon basin, the South Falklands Basin ("SFB") and given that it contains gas and condensate, these results suggest thermal maturity (thermo genic gas opposed to biogenic gas which tends to be drier). Now for the cloud with the silver lining.

A technical discovery is a long way from a commercial discovery, and while the shares will be marked upwards, as they have been already, if predominantly gas the find will have a long wait for commercialisation, if it is commercial at all. On the back of this news, we are raising our price target from 150p to 220p and reiterating our BUY recommendation, but proffer a note of caution.

A gas find will not be what the market is looking for, and there may well be weakness in the share price as a result. In this news:

Good hydrocarbon shows from 4,633m down to 4,810m

The main reservoir interval, comprising good quality massive sandstone, was found to be 84.5m thick with net pay of 67.8m.

Average porosity for this interval is 22%, with maximum values reaching 30%.

Fluid samples from the reservoir have been recovered and will be brought back to the UK for analysis.

Once the lab analysis is complete and the results integrated with other data collected from the well, the Company will be able to comment on the liquid content of the reservoir

Too early to give an accurate resource estimate, but this large simple structure
Seismic amplitude anomaly measuring 26sq km


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Target price upgrade to 450p a share.

Borders & Southern – Darwinian revolution....Mirabaud

Today Borders & Southern Petroleum announced a basin-opening gas-condensate discovery at the Darwin East exploration well – the first ever deep water well in the South Falkland Basin (SFB). Borders’ 61/17-1 well encountered 68m of net hydrocarbon pay in a good quality (up to 30% porosity), shallow marine reservoir which corresponds directly to the area of high amplitude identified on 3D seismic data pre drill.

Although the exact liquids content of the discovery remains unclear at this stage, the structure covers some 26 sq km and our back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the field could contain c.480 mmboe of recoverable condensate and gas. Furthermore, looking forward there are numerous lookalike prospects across Border’s acreage with similar structural and seismic attributes that have been materially de-risked as a result, and we would point to the success of explorers offshore East Africa as an example of how a string of remote gas discoveries can lead to the creation of very substantial value utilising a cluster LNG approach.

Overall, we view the results of Darwin East as a promising start to the current SFB drilling campaign and maintain our BUY recommendation on an upgraded target price of 450p/shr – offering some 266% upside to Friday’s close.

I have put the Darwin, Stebbing, Loligo and Scotia locations on here.

As you can see Darwin is prime for gas. Stebbing is more likely to be oil

Loligo and Scotia targets for FOGL are in the oil window - much more likely to be oil



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rampety, rampety, ramp........boring.

It's far from boring halifax.....this is great stuff.....wait till it's FOGL's turn....the targets are of Saudi size....!.

rf you mean like big fat arabs?

Driving Ferraries and Porskies......yeah.....

MrP - unless I am much mistaken, one of the anlayst reports you quoted (Merchant Securities) said that Stebbing was now (even) LESS likely to have oil than previously thought

Stebbing is inside the oil window (Darwin is inside the gas window). So it will really depend on whats been happening with the geology.

Stebbing has the same source rock which has produced oil for Darwin, but this oil is now condensate.

Has Stebbing also been overcooked ? or still oil ?

We will know in about 6 to 7 weeks time.


Pre-drill, even though they share the same source rock, BOR were predicting if oil is found then Darwin would be 32API and Stebbing would be 25API.

Stebbing is shallower and has had different conditions to Darwin, its oil mature and potentially 25API, if there is any.

Proselenes,

I for one don't care a jot if your posts are ramping or not (who does not put a slightly bias slant on a share they are invested in), but most of your posts are very interesting an informative.
Keep them coming.

regards Greek

Greek, do not worry, the abuse, insults and pathetic childish remarks some people make are water off of a ducks back.

They come from people who are jealous, its the only reason they do it, and as such I forgive them for their jealousness and ignore them.

Never going to stop be posting on any stock with any info :)

interesting day here so far - better fogl than bor for now maybe

I put this on the BOR thread - info for here.

As some people seem to struggle to understand what gas condensate is, I have put the following together quickly, apologies for errors in advance - this is just a simple way of giving an idea of what "gas condensate" is.


The most interesting question is what is the bngl/mmscf for the gas condensate ?

The company has said, in effect, this is not a "wet gas" find, they have said this is a "gas condensate" discovery.


"Wet gas" is as it says, its gas with fluids in it. Wet gas can be anything from tea cup of Natural Gas Liquids per MMSCF to around 10 barrels of NGL/MMSCF.

BNGL/MMSCF is Barrels of Natural Gas Liquids / Million SCF of gas.


Now, gas condensate discoveries, as opposed to wet gas discoveries, tend to have a value for bngl/mmscf from 10 barrels of NGL/MMSCF up to around 500 barrels of NGL per MMSCF at which point above 500 its into the realms of "volatile oil" before becoming "black liquid oil" at around 1000 BNGL/MMSCF equivalent values.

So

Up to 10 BNGL/MMSCF is "wet gas"
>10 BNGL/MMSCF up to 500 BNGL/MMSCF is "gas condensate".
>500 BGNL/MMSCF up to 1000 BNGL/MMSCF is "volatile oil".
>1000 BNGL/MMSCF equivalent is liquid black oil


To put that into perspective - if lets say the Darwin East + Darwin West structure is joined and has 5 Tcf of gas equivalent value and that "Gas Condensate" has a BNGL/MMSCF value of 100.

You would get :

5,000,000 MMSCF x 100 BNGL = 500 million barrels of condensate.

If its 2 Tcf and 200 BNGL = 400 million barrels of condensate.

If its 2 Tcf and 20 BNGL = 40 million barrels of condensate.


This is why at the moment its very hard to value this "gas condensate" discovery, but its certainly not a "wet gas" discovery as per RNS is clear, this is into the realms of gas condensate.

We await the fluid samples and therefore a value for the BNGL/MMSCF of the fluid recovered from Darwin.

If they recovered fluid from the reservoir it is possible this is actually in the borderline between gas condensate and volatile oil - if the BNGL/MMSCF were to be 500 then it would be fluid like, on the borderline state between condensate and volatile oil.

Stebbing is green area so more likely oil, as are Loligo and Scotia for FOGL - BUT the area where Darwin was drilled is distinctly in the small red area there - gas.




As you can see Darwin is prime for gas (red area). Stebbing is more likely to be oil (green area)

Loligo and Scotia targets for FOGL are in the oil window (green) - much more likely to be oil



.

Here is all the explo blocks.



.

Well, this is my main stock now.....retained some BOR....drop becoming ridiculous for that share now....3 wells it looks like for FOGL......that'll keep them busy till october by the look of things......sp looking far too low for such potential.....

Just printed out the whole 2012 pdf presentation.....lovely evening read....I'm going to have to be careful not to fall in love with this share.....

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/FoxDavies_Daily_Monitor_Borders_and_Southern_Falkland_Oil_and_Gas_and_Aurelian_Oil_Gas/73e9a27378df.aspx



FoxDavies Daily Monitor - Borders and Southern, Falkland Oil and Gas and Aurelian Oil & Gas

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Falklands Oil and Gas (FOGL LN, 91.25p, 2.7%) - Concept Proven:

Today's BOR LN results will boost south Falkland's players, such as FOGL as it diminishes one of the key risks associated with the SFB- that it is a viable hydrocarbon basin with mature source rock. With this news, we are raising our target price from 250p to 275p and reiterating our BUY recommendation.

Falklands - That Thick Silver Lining Still has a Cloud…: Today's news that there is a viable hydrocarbon province in the shape of the SFB benefits everybody, not just the players in that basin, but those in the North Falkland's Basin like Desire, Rockhopper and Argos. With the prospects of the SFB being a viable commercial discovery, there will soon be a claim to have critical mass, and the risks associated with the development of the regional as a whole will lift all the players in the region.

It will also raise the tempo in the fight for the Falklands between Argentina and the UK, which given the recent nationalisation of YPF was a shameless populist driven event, there will be little holding the government back from whipping up another fervour over the Falklands.

But here is the rub. YPF's nationalisation (the "Nationalisation") actually helps the Falklands. Prior to the Nationalisation, Argentina had been indulged in its claims for the Falklands by its LatAm peers, even in the wake of PetroBras' licence revocation, despite what we have been led to believe was its compliance with the terms of the licence. However, the Nationalisation has attracted international condemnation, such that Argentina's next "cab of the rank," i.e. the Falklands, shall be used to make an example of it, which is good for the Falklands.

Argentina won't get any help from Spain....I'm sure as we progress that the sp for FOGL will climb...so many very large prospects and 3 wells.....4 if you count Stebbing...