I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Its not a company I know much about - although I feel I should in terms of potential returns. That yearly low was hit (not surprisingly) in the last 4 weeks - 150 seems to have held on a few occasions.

As you say - interims next week - will the 9.07% yield hold?

Exactly. If the yield drops significantly, then recovery is going to be slow.

funds under mgmt way down about 40% - profits down - the only question really from thurs interims this week is is there anything to give back to share holders in the form of a cash divi - prob bit more red tomorrow then just maybe then some blue - roll on thurs - yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

if there is a divi here this year dont expect one next year apparently

oh and man flag ship fund under performing quite significantly - apart from that all is fine!!!! lol

gla

Worth a wee punt in the run up to interims Thurs, was hoping for below 150.0 late Frid, didn't happen. Got in @ 153.5 Tgt 180.0 stop 140.0.

Added @ 148.5
This was the price I hoped to get in on friday. Probably a suicide trade but this company are so inept at the mo, there is every chance they will press the wrong button and get it right just to naff off the shorters. :O)

Chris - I've decided to stay clear - so your trades will be just fine :-)

skinny - I doubt it, he who dares :O)

Possibly some fallout from the news today that MF Global U.S.(which was spun off from Man Grp) has stopped accepting CFD trades and is likely to declare bankruptcy.

"STATEMENT ON MF GLOBAL

Man Group notes that its former subsidiary, MF Global Holdings Ltd, has today filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Man Group confirms that MF Global is an entirely independent company. Neither Man nor its wholly owned single managers have counterparty exposure to MF Global."

This is a clear SELL.

so which creditors has MF Global sought protection from and is there going to be any "knock on" effect?

interesting that their CEO was former CEO of the "vampyre squid" lets see if they have lost in the demise of MFGlobal.

indeed - chrisc good luck - you may need it i am afraid - still skinny has given you a helping hand by not buying!!! as you say he who dares.......... hope it goes well for you - i am still undecided - waiting more info

I'm buying... not.

Will be stopped out very shortly, not one of my better trading decisions this year -13.5

Sub 140p.

Down 10% now ..incredible.

Note from Credit Suisse:
"We do not expect any material surprises in the interim results given the company released its pre close trading update on the 28 Septemeber. The key financials from the pre close trading update, included AuM at end Sept of $65bn, H1 adjusted PBT of $185m, H1 adjusted EPS of 7.5cents and net cash of $700m. The company also committed to holding the dividend constant for the 9 months ending 31 Dec 11 on a pro rata basis at 16.5c (22c full year).
Expect further decline in AuM at 1 Nov 2011: We expect AuM to have declined further over the past month to c$63bn. We attribute the decline to weaker investment performance (c-$1bn) predominately in AHL with some offset from long only funds. We expect FX to add c$1.8bn due to US$ weakness. On top of the $0.8bn de-gear on 1 October (as announced in pre close) we estimate a further $0.8bn due to AHL weakness. Finally on flows, this is more difficult to predict but we expect further net redemptions due to the general risk aversion across the industry in October which we believe could result in net redemption up to c$1bn.
No exposure to MF Global: Man has confirmed that the company or its wholly owned single managers have no counterparty exposure to MG Global.
Valuation implying zero performance fees: The shares are trading on FY12E PE of 8.4x or c7.3x (ex net cash) vs.sector on c11x. We accept there remains downside risk to performance fees but even excluding all FY12 performance fees and net of cash the shares trade on c11.5x.

FT sector watcher comment on AHL fund:
"AHL - a decrease of 0.6% week-on-week (for comparison, the MSCI World Index week-on-week change was an increase of 0.4%). These figures are as of 31 October 2011. In the past four weeks, the MSCI World Index has had weekly increases, and has risen 13.3% since 3 October. On the other hand, AHL has had four consecutive weeks of declines, and is off 7.6% in the same time period. We note, however, that if we incorporate AHLs hot streak of seven consecutive weeks of weekly NAV increases (which started on 4 July), AHL is up 2.1% against the MSCI World Index being off 9.7%
Off 10% yesterday. I think the market doesnt believe they have no exposure to MF Global. Truth is they did a lot of trade with MF Global but pulled it 3 months ago. Great trick. Sell a business for a $1.7bn profit then pull your business which triggers an unexpected quarterly loss which leads to increased risk taking by the company on the balance sheet."