http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100359429

Kurdistan's Vast Reserves Draw Oil Majors

Published: Tuesday, 8 Jan 2013 | 1:19 AM ET
By: Guy ChazanIrbil

For decades, the rugged hills of northern Iraq were the sole preserve of sheep herders and the Kurdish militia known as peshmergas. Now they play host to some of the largest oil and gas companies in the world, drawn by its estimated 45 billion barrels of oil.

"We are driving over huge reserves," says Richard Lowe, drilling manager for oil explorer Gulf Keystone, as he crosses Iraqi Kurdistan's oil-rich northern corner.

Off to the right, he says, lie Ain Sifni and Barda Rash, where the London-listed oil company Afren has made two big oil discoveries. On the left are vast unexplored fields. "That's where ExxonMobil will be drilling," he says.

The region's oil is so plentiful it literally oozes out of the ground. Near Gulf Keystone's Shaikan field - one of the world's largest onshore oil finds of recent years - Mr Lowe points to crude oil leaking out of the limestone rock and dribbling down in thick black seeps.

Barely on the oil majors' radar five years ago, the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq is now one of the biggest draws in the energy industry. But the enthusiasm is tempered by escalating tension between the region and Baghdad, which has led to border skirmishes and rows over oil. Last month, regional crude exports - which feed into a centrally controlled pipeline system - fell to a trickle because of a row over payments.

Observers in Irbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, say the row reflects a broader crisis at the heart of the Iraqi government. "There are clearly big problems with its ability to govern," says one official. "No one knows what's going to happen next."

Despite the problems, Iraq's oil industry is seeing a major rebirth - a revival so strong that it is helping to dispel fears of a future global oil shortage. The country's production, long suppressed by war, sanctions and neglect, is expected to double to more than 6m barrels a day by 2020, according to the International Energy Agency. By the 2030s, the IEA says, Iraq will be the world's second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

The Kurdish region's contribution to this revival is small but growing. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) sees production from the region - now about 200,000 barrels a day - rising to 1m b/d by 2015 and 2m b/d by 2019.

That has made it Big Oil's hottest real estate.

Its largest oilfields - Tawke, Taq Taq and Shaikan - have become household names in the industry.

"Kurdistan is the oil exploration capital of the world," says Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP, now chief executive of Genel Energy, the largest independent oil producer in the region.

Exxon's decision to enter the region in 2011 was a turning point, with Chevron, Total and Gazprom following in its wake.

The KRG says their arrival should silence critics who question the legality of the production-sharing contracts it has signed with international energy groups. "[Exxon's arrival] is an endorsement of our policy," says Ashti Hawrami, the KRG's minister of natural resources.

Baghdad says the Exxon contract - and the roughly 50 other deals the KRG has signed - are unconstitutional and has barred oil companies that enter the north from participating in Iraqi oil licensing rounds. It has also made life hard for oil companies operating in KRG-controlled areas who often have to wait months for Baghdad to pay them for the oil they produce.

Nearly 10 years after US-led forces invaded Iraq and removed Saddam Hussein, relations between the Kurds and Iraq's Sunnis and Shia remain strained.

That has translated not just into tensions between Baghdad and Irbil over oil but also skirmishes in disputed territories - including oil-rich Kirkuk - on the border between KRG territory and Iraq. The illness of Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, an ethnic Kurd, makes the situation even more febrile.

Tensions flared up in dramatic fashion last November, with a shoot-out between Iraqi and Kurdish forces in the small town of Tuz Khormato in which one person was killed and several wounded. On December 17, explosions in a Shia district of the town killed at least five people and wounded 24, while a truck bomb killed seven near Mosul.

New security arrangements in the disputed areas - with a joint command replaced by one led by Baghdad - has also fuelled concerns. "They're worried about what they see as the creeping militarisation of Kirkuk," says a diplomat based in Irbil. "They say that makes it even less likely that there will be a proper political settlement of the status of the disputed areas."

For now, there are hopes that ultimately the export issue will be resolved - hopes that rest on the KRG's plans to build a new 1m b/d oil pipeline to the Turkish border.

Though there is no clear date for construction, under current proposals, it will tie in to Iraq's existing export pipeline between Kirkuk and Turkey's port of Ceyhan. But the KRG could seek to develop a separate route across the border into Turkey, effectively giving it control of its own exports. Already, Iraqi Kurdistan is shipping small amounts of oil by truck across the Turkish border.

"This [dispute] will not resolve itself until Kurdistan has the infrastructure to allow it to export oil directly to Turkey and be independent from Baghdad," says one foreign oil executive active in KRG territory.

Experts say such an outcome would inevitably hasten a full, comprehensive agreement on exports and oil rights because the KRG would have much more leverage in any negotiations with the central government.

Despite the problems, oil companies in the region are willing to persevere. They "are used to working in very ambiguous circumstances", says one Irbil-based energy consultant. "With Kurdistan, they feel the risk is worth it."

Going well today, as time goes buy more of those who recently sold out will buy back in and the price will rise more and more building up and building up to when the court case ends, either surprisingly early or on schedule.

Turkish analyst: Ankara to invest in oil...
pathai
http://www.shafaaq.com/en/news/4665-turkish-analyst-ankara-to-invest-in-oil-and-housing-field-in-kurdistan.html

Wednesday, 09 January 2013 10:47

Shafaq News / A Turkish economic analyst revealed on Wednesday, that Ankara is considering to invest in oil field in Kurdistan region , while stressing that the expansion of investment in housing field was be under study also.

The Turkish economic analyst, Okan Ayoub told "Shafaq News", that "Turkey plans to invest in oil field in Kurdistan Region;" adding that "Ankara didn’t start this step previously for fear of its impact on relations between the province and the center in Iraq."

He added that "this fear does not exist on reality on the evidence that U.S. companies and other oil companies are investing in the oil field within Kurdistan," pointing out that "Turkey is considering it now and there is a big possibility that the Turkish companies would invest in oil field in the region."

"The housing field investment issue will depend on if it will serve the Turkish economy,” he added.

The relations between Baghdad and Ankara are witnessing significant tension over the past few months because the Iraqi government accused Turkey of interfering in its internal affairs, supporting opposition parties and the different viewpoints of the two sides on the Syrian crisis

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/fox-davies-capital/11702/gulf-keystone-petroleum-ltd-feature-in-fox-davies-newsflash-11702.html

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. feature in Fox-Davies Newsflash

9:56 am

Daily Oil & Gas Monitor

Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) – Kurdistan – A Small Step for the Oil Sector, a Giant Leap for Kurdistan: Genel has today disclosed that it has started to ship crude into turkey, admittedly in small quantities. While the amount is small, what it does do is clearly demonstrate that the Kurdistan is keeping to its timetable of permitting exports independently of Baghdad. The volumes may be small, but this is a significant step forward, and paves the way for the wholesale export of crude in the next 12 to 18 months. We believe that this is excellent news for the region, as well as the players within it. On the back of this news, we are reiterating our BUY Recommendation and 350p Target Price for Gulf Keystone.

GKP closing in on the golden crossover,200dma just above 200p.SP now at 194p.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/68033/genels-kurdistan-shipments-raise-hopes-gulf-keystone

Genel's Kurdistan shipments raise hopes for Gulf Keystone
By Darshini Shah | Wed, 09/01/2013 - 10:37

Genel Energy (GENL) has started to ship crude oil into Turkey from the Kurdistan region of Iraq in small quantities.

"While the amount is small, what it does do is clearly demonstrate that the Kurdistan [Regional Government] is keeping to its timetable of permitting exports independently of Baghdad," stated analysts at FoxDavies.

"The volumes may be small, but this is a significant step forward, and paves the way for the wholesale export of crude in the next 12 to 18 months."

Should investors buy Gulf Keystone?
The news bodes well for the region, as well as for the companies operating there, including Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP).

Last year was a rollercoaster for the company, which saw the shares reach a peak of 433p in February, before falling 60% to end the year at 177p.

However, the clouds seem to be clearing for the oil and gas explorer.

One of the big problems Gulf Keystone has faced is a ban on oil exports caused by disputes between the Kurdistan Regional Government and Iraq's central government. However, Wednesday's news appeared to be paving the way for exports to flow from the region once more. In fact, plans to build a new pipeline to increase export capacity are already underway.

Secondly, Gulf Keystone has been engaged in a legal dispute with a company called Excalibur Ventures, which is claiming that an agreement dating back to 2006 entitles it to a 30% share of Gulf Keystone's subsequent discoveries.

However, January should see the matter settled one way or another and remove any uncertainties. Winning the case would likely pave the way for a move to the FTSE 250, which would give it greater exposure to large, institutional investors.

Thirdly, Kurdistan has an estimated 45 billion barrels of oil, with Gulf Keystone's 51%-owned Shaikan asset estimated to hold 14 billion barrels in place. Even if investors assume only a quarter of this is recovered, that equates to just 95p per barrel at the company's current market capitalisation of approximately £1.65 billion.

Finally, with Shaikan the biggest asset in Kurdistan, the explorer could be on the radar for other players in the region, including Chevron (CVX), Total (TTA) or ExxonMobil (XOM). Gulf Keystone's attractiveness could be further augmented if the company wins the court case, as this would remove any obstacle to a takeover bid

Eyes also on MOL this quarter for news that could have a very positive impact on GKP (20% share of the AB license)

News is due on Bakrman-1 well testing and also Gulak-1 well testing - MOL say Q1 2013 but of course that means "at any time" in the quarter, could be Jan or Feb or March. Could well be end of Jan. (Not forgetting Aqra-1 testing news as well is due).

MOL also say development plan for Shaikan is due Feb 2013 with full production from Shaikan commencing Jan 2014.

For those thinking no news soon, there is plenty of news coming end of Jan and early February......

Just came across this,


11:19
MOL good news end January
broadford bay
8
I response to some enquiries I had made, I received the following from MOL's head of investor relations:

"Dear James,
Yes the Aqra-1 (or Bijell-3, how we officially call it) appraisal well reached its final depth. Status is under testing.
Most probably we will give an operational update about the Akri Bijeel block in this month, including news about the even more important exploration well(s), Bakrman-1 and Gulak-1.

Kind regards,
Ádám Horváth"

Note the emphasis he places on the Bakrman-1 and Gulak-1 news.

">

From MOL November 2012 presentation, showing Bakrman-1 and Gulak-1 due for completion around end of Dec 12. Key milestones shows update for these in Q1 2013. (Bijell-3 = Aqra-1)

Very possible late January, so not long to go.



.

From the same presentation, note Feb 2013 for the Shaikan development plan.



.

from same article:

The KRG halted exports through the Baghdad-controlled Iraq-Turkey pipeline last month in a dispute over payments to oil companies operating in Kurdistan, and officials in Baghdad say the trade of Kurdish oil would make it even more difficult to reach a deal on payments.

A new 75 km pipeline linking the Taq Taq oilfield to the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan export infrastructure should be up and running soon, Hayward said. "It'll be mechanically completed by the end of the month and fully operational in mid-February."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/09/iraq-turkey-oil-idUSL5E9C936R20130109

Wed Jan 9, 2013 8:39am EST

* Exports to Turkey from Taq Taq field to rise up to 20,000 bpd

* Genel says happy to finance new proposed Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline

* Taq Taq-Khurmala pipeline seen operational in mid-Feb

By Humeyra Pamuk

ABU DHABI, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Trucked exports of crude oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey may reach 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) in a few weeks, the chief executive of Genel Energy said, in a growing trade that central government in Baghdad sees as illegal.

The export of crude from the Taq Taq oil field by truck to Turkey shows the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) growing frustration with Baghdad as it moves towards greater economic independence.

"The KRG has given us approval to begin trucking relatively small volumes of crude," Genel CEO Tony Hayward told reporters on Wednesday, adding that exports of the oil would probably rise to 10,000-20,000 bpd in the next few weeks.

Taq Taq produces around 100,000 bpd and 35,000 bpd is fed into the Bazian refinery. Genel Energy has a 45 percent stake in the field and apart from the direct exports to Turkey, the majority of the oil is shipped to local refineries.

Hayward, former head of oil major BP, said the Anglo-Turkish company he now leads was going to be compensated for the oil shippped to Turkey by the KRG, which will receive oil products from Turkey in return for the crude.

"Because Kurdistan is short of some particular products, gasoline mainly, they are sending their oil to Turkey and taking products in exchange," he said in an interview with Reuters.

The KRG halted exports through the Baghdad-controlled Iraq-Turkey pipeline last month in a dispute over payments to oil companies operating in Kurdistan, and officials in Baghdad say such a unilateraly move to increase the trade of Kurdish oil could make it even more difficult to reach a deal on payments.

Genel's activities proceed on track nevertheless.

A new 75 km pipeline linking the Taq Taq oilfield to Khurmala - the entry point to the existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan export infrastructure - should be up and running soon, Hayward said. "It'll be mechanically completed by the end of the month and should be fully operational in mid-February."

If Baghdad and the KRG reach an agreement, the new link would make exports through the federal pipeline system easier.

Talks over a new proposed pipeline that will link Kurdistan's oil fields to the Turkish border, which the KRG had pledged to put in place in 2013, are also ongoing, Hayward said. "We have said to KRG that we'd be very happy to finance it and we're still in discussions on how to proceed."

Such a pipeline would cost around $150 million, he said, adding that Genel, which has $1 billion in cash, would comfortably finance that. He said the construction could start in the first half of the year given KRG's target to have it operational by the end of the year.

NO INTENTION TO SURRENDER

For over a year, Kurdistan has upset Baghdad by signing deals with oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron , providing lucrative production-sharing contracts and better operating conditions than in Iraq's south.

The KRG says its right to grant contracts to foreign oil firms is enshrined in the Iraqi constitution, drawn up following the 2003 invasion that ousted Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein.

Baghdad said last month it would not pay oil firms operating in Kurdistan because the region had failed to export the volume of crude it pledged under a deal struck in September.

That agreement stipulated that Kurdistan would pump crude through the Baghdad-controlled Iraq-Turkey pipeline in return for payment.

Hayward said KRG was left frustrated by not getting paid by Baghdad for the oil it sold and not receiving the oil products that Kurdistan says it is entitled to and is short of.

"I think they have been very clear they have no intention of surrendering what they consider to be their right to manage their own oil and gas. They've also been very clear if they can't find any accomodation with Baghdad about how to do that which so far seems to have eluded both parties, they would do their own thing," he said.

Baghdad transferred an initial sum of 650 billion Iraqi dinars ($560 million) to the KRG. But a second payment is still pending for the foreign companies in Kurdist

From iii board.
12:19
Re: MOL good news end January
investor48
37
Hello Everyone,

To add to BB's post:

The CEO of MOL in one of his presentation highlighted the Kurdistan will be a company maker.

Now,MOL is capitalised at circa 8.7Billion USD nearly 3times that of GKP currently.For a 8.7billion USD company to say that Kurdistan will be a Company maker tells us that Akri-bijeel must be significant,for it to transform a company that is already capitailsed at 8.7billion USD.

Well how much will this transformation be with it's assets in Kurdistan coming of 3blocks of which MOL has 50 plus percent stake in AB,which is most significant to MOL?Your guess is as good as mine!The discovery of Shaikan has transformed GKP from a small oil junior with a market cap of less than 30million pounds to an oil company with a market cap of more than 1billion pounds.

GKP with a net of 12.5percent of AB after back in rights,will indeed be very valuable,IMHO.

Best wishes to all.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Just recently a figure of 9500lbs/presure at the well head(which is very significant)was mentioned and it was hinted it referred to the AB well??

A ROAD MAP READY AND AGREED BY TURKS & ÖCALAN ?

ANKARA, REUTERS / RADIKAL / MESOP et.al. 9.1.2013 – The Turkish government and jailed Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan have agreed on a roadmap to end a three-decade-old insurgency that has claimed tens of thousands of lives, Turkish media reported Wednesday. The deal was reached during a new round of talks between Ankara and Ocalan and aims to have the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) lay down arms in March, private news network NTV and Radikal newspaper reported.

An initial cessation of hostilities was to evolve into a fully-fledged ceasefire agreement over the following months, they said, without revealing their sources for the reported breakthrough.

The government is expected to reciprocate the ceasefire by granting wider rights to Turkey’s Kurdish minority, whose population is estimated at up to 15 million in the 75-million nation, according to unofficial figures. But Turkey’s pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP) warned the talks were not at the stage of fully-fledged ceasefire negotiations, arguing Ocalan would have to be freed first and given a chance to consult the grassroots.

Gulf Keystone (LSE:GKP): November Bear Trap Rebound

Earlier this week I read with interest that Gulf Keystone is the most widely held AIM stock, and previously my intensive research has pointed to it being a takeover target and a potential FTSE 100 entrant. Not bad fundamental stuff from a chartist? But the main point of interest here is whether after today’s surge for the shares towards 200p this is merely a false dawn or the start of an extended recovery?

The technicals suggest that we have been treated to a bear trap from below the November intraday low of 170p. This is a major buy signal, one backed up by the way that after 170p was recovered on an end of day close basis o December 27th, the lowest price intraday was 172p.

The position now is that one would be looking for further upside while there is no end of day close back below the late December 187.75p intraday peak, with the initial target the 200 day moving average at 204p. But only once this has been conquered can we really say that Gulf Keystone is Back For Good, as in the Take That “masterpiece.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/turkey-beating-norway-as-biggest-regional-oil-driller-energy.html

TPAO et al
Turkey Beating Norway as Biggest Regional Oil Driller: Energy
By Selcan Hacaoglu & Brian Swint - Jan 10, 2013 12:00 AM GMT Facebook
Turkey is drilling for oil and natural gas with more rigs than any European country and plans new rules in 2013 to speed exploration of energy supplies for the fastest-growing major economy after China.

The country fielded 26 rigs at Dec. 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and the number has since risen to 34, Energy Ministry officials said yesterday. Turkey has leapfrogged Norway as offshore drilling increased in the Black and Mediterranean seas. Spending on exploration jumped to $610 million last year from $42 million a decade earlier.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/68033/genels-kurdistan-shipments-raise-hopes-gulf-keystone

Going lovely is it not.

As I said, it was a raging buy under 180p !! :)

Yes it most certainly is,broken througjh the 200DMA today. Interesting month, CC resumes on Monday and news of AB from MOL later in the month.GKP(apart from SA)have been unusually short of operational updates,the half year results on Sept.12th being the last such news. The next 50 days should give us a much better overall icture,so just a little more patiance needed?