STRATEGY

•FOGL seeks to add shareholder value by pursuing an aggressive exploration programme in its licences to the south and east of the Falkland Islands. Exploration drilling will continue in the deep water areas of FOGL’s licences in the first half of 2012. If successful, this drilling could lead to the development of a new hydrocarbon province in the South Atlantic.

Next Phase of drilling

In the first half of 2012 FOGL is planning to drill two wells in the deep water area of its licences.
FOGL has contracted the Leiv Eiriksson rig to undertake this drilling programme. The rig is due to arrive in the Falklands in early 2012 when it will initially drill two wells for Borders and Southern Plc (B&S), before commencing the FOGL drilling programme. The B&S wells are to be drilled on the Darwin and Stebbing prospects. The results of these wells will be of interest to FOGL, because we have similar plays and prospects within the southern part of our licence area.

The first well to be drilled in the FOGL programme will be on the Loligo prospect. A number of options exist for the second well, including potentially a well on Scotia, a prospect within the Mid Cretaceous Fan Play. The final decision on which prospect will be targeted by the second well will be guided by the results from Loligo.

Funding

As at 7 September 2011 FOGL's available funds, including the BHP Billiton settlement, were $150.8 million. The Company is debt free.


2012 Drilling Programme

The Leiv Eiriksson a harsh environment rig has been drilling wells offshore Greenland for Cairn Energy. That campaign is expected to finish by the end of November 2011 after which the rig will head south to the Falkland Islands. The rig will first drill two wells (about 90 days drilling) for Borders and Southern Plc (B&S) before moving on to the FOGL programme. The transit time from Greenland is expected to be approximately 60 days.

A great deal of work has gone into the planning of the FOGL drilling campaign and over the preceding years a large amount of data has had to be collected to so that the drilling can take place.

Seismic data was acquired from 2004 to 2007 and again in 2011, CSEM in 2007, site surveys in 2009 and 2011 and metocean data, from permanent current meters, in 2009/10. Well planning essentially started in 2009 with the drilling of three, 200m deep, geotechnical boreholes. This data helped with the planning of the shallow section of the Toroa well (FI 61/05-1) and has been extensively used in the planning of the deep water programme.

The first well in the FOGL programme will be on the giant Loligo prospect. A second well will also be drilled by FOGL using the Leiv Eiriksson and site surveys have been acquired over the following prospects: The Nimrod Complex and the Vinson prospect in the Tertiary Channel Play, the Scotia or Hero prospects in the Mid Cretaceous Fan Play and the Inflexible or Endeavour prospect in the Springhill Sandstone Play. Options that are currently being considered depend upon the results of the first well on Loligo. The final play in the FOGL acreage is in the Fold Belt in the south west of the FOGL acreage. This play is being tested by B&S at their Stebbing prospect. Similar features exist within the FOGL acreage and the results of the well will be closely monitored. In addition the B&S, Darwin well is targeting a tilted fault block which again shows great similarities with several prospects in the FOGL portfolio (Inflexible, Thulla etc.). Depending on the results of Darwin FOGL may consider a well on Inflexible as the second well in the programme.

FOGL’s main focus is on the two younger plays, the Tertiary Channel and the Mid Cretaceous Fan play. FOGL has been working on the Mid Cretaceous play for some time but it was only in late 2009, when the seismic data had been fully reprocessed, that it became clear that this major new play was viable. The play is analogous to the ones being successfully targeted in West Africa (the Tullow Jubilee field in Ghana and other discoveries along that margin) and the general geology, depositional setting and even the AVO response (Class II response over Scotia and Hero) are remarkably similar. The two main prospects, Scotia and Hero, both contain prospective resources in excess of 1 billion bbls. One of the key features that makes this play so attractive is that the reservoir sands sit directly above the mature Aptian oil source rocks which were sampled in the DSDP wells to the East of the FOGL acreage.

2012 DRLLING TARGET LOLIGO

The shallowest target alone covers an area of over 600sqkm. The Loligo prospect was first mapped in 2006 and has been re-mapped and re analysed several times since then. It is a large stratigraphic trap which is supported by a very consistent Class III AVO response on the seismic data. It is an ‘easy to map’ anomaly which stands out clearly above the background seismic responses when compared to the entire basin. In addition, it sits directly above an old high which used to separate the Southern basin (Fitzroy sub-basin) from the Northern basin (Volunteer sub-basin). This old high seems to be acting as a focus for hydrocarbon migration from deeply buried source rocks in each of the sub basins.

Beneath the southern part of Loligo several other prospects within the Tertiary Channel play, overlap and may be penetrated by one carefully located well. The deeper prospects (each covering an area similar to Loligo) have been called Trigg and the Three Bears. Together these prospects are called the Loligo Complex. The prospective resources (recoverable oil) associated with the Loligo complex, are in excess of 4 billion bbls of oil or over 25tcf of gas.




FOGL is focused exclusively on offshore oil and gas exploration in the Falkland Islands.

We are pursuing an aggressive exploration programme that could lead to the development of a new petroleum province in the South Atlantic. The joint venture operations have now moved into the drilling phase.
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Most prospects in 2,000 – 4,500 feet water depth (610 – 1372m)

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Target horizons: 6,000 – 13,000 feet below sea bed lever (1829 – 3962m)

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Falklands weather is similar to West of Shetland

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Remote location but there were no major issues during 1998 drilling campaign

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Anchored semi-submersible or drillship for exploration drilling

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Tried and tested technology for developments



Falkland Oil and Gas Limited Licence area.




FINANCIAL SUMMARY http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/Investors/performance

FOGL HOME http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/home

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/falkland-oil-and-gas-2012-its-time-63024/

29/09/2008 18:01 >> =DJ 2nd UPDATE: RAB Fund Closure Threat To Small-Cap Miners


By Elaine Mills DOW JONES NEWSWIRES LONDON (Dow Jones)--The potential liquidation of RAB Capital''s troubled natural resources fund, pending a shareholders'' vote later Monday, could have dire consequences for many AIM-listed miners already battered by a difficult trading environment, analysts said. Hedge fund manager RAB Capital''s $900 million Special Situations fund holds sizable stakes in dozens of small mining and oil exploration companies. Later Monday, shareholders in the fund are to vote on proposals to lock in their cash for three years in return for lower fees, following a run of bad performance. If they reject the proposals, the fund faces liquidation, RAB said. That would force it to sell off its holdings, which would drive down the share prices of many firms alreadybattling with tough market conditions as investors shun riskier stocks. The AIM market index has declined by around 40% over the past year. "If RAB suddenly dumped all its shares on the market it would be carnage," Andy Davidson, an analyst at Fox-Davies Capital, told Dow Jones Newswires. Another analyst, who declined to be named, said because RAB owns largely illiquid small mining stocks it wouldn''t be able to sell unless it was at a discounted price. The longer investor commitment period is intended to stem the fund''s accelerating rate of redemptions. The Special Situations strategy fell by an estimated 22% in August, taking the year-to-date estimated decline to 48%. Fuad Sillem, investor relations officer for Arian Silver CORP. (AGQ.V) in which RAB has a nearly 7% stake, conceded that the liquidation of the fund could impact negatively on Arian. Another company arguably at major risk is Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd. (FOGL.LN),in which RAB holds around 37%. However, it''s chief executive Tim Bushwell said he wasn''t "unduly concerned" as he thought there was a "reasonable chance" that shareholders would accept the proposals. He said although liquidation would cause short-term weakness in Falkland''s shares, it wouldn''t impact on its long-term growth story. Richard Williams, the CEO of Oxus Gold PLC (OXS.LN) in which RAB holds nearly 28%, also dismissed the threat posed by a potential selloff. Williams said he was confident investors would accept the proposals, but even if they didn''t, he expected an "orderly handover" of RAB''s shareholding rather than a "fire-sale." There is a whole swathe of institutional investors eager to take up a stake in Oxus, he said. At least one major shareholder, AP Pension, which holds 15% in RAB Special Situations, has come out in support of extending the commitment period. Its Chief Investment Officer, Claus Buchwald Christjansen, said the early-stage mining sector was initially capital-intensive and needed "sticky money," or longer-term funding, for any investment to come to fruition. Christjansen added that AP Pension had "great faith" in Philip Richards as an investment manager. The result of the RAB shareholder vote will be released before the close of business in the Cayman Islands Monday, which is around 1000 GMT, RAB Capital said. It declined to comment any further. Company Web sites: www.rabcap.com

RAB was also a huge buyer of NRK while it was vortexing down the plughole .... great bunch of professional managers!

sorry to post such a large timescale chart, but its purpose is pretty obvious .....



there would appear to be good support at 80p, but certainly several weeks ago, Daniel Stewart or similar was saying 20p was actually fair value ...... worth shorting? ...... perhaps, if only because FOGL don't even start drilling for another year, if memory serves me aright

as far as i can see, concrete(!!) results for any of these FI E&P companies is a very very long way off .... though i would anticipate oil to return to a "natural" level of say $95/100, that could still be 2/3 months away, and even at those levels, i wonder if any of these FI companies would be profitable, even if any of them actually found commercial quantities of oil.

with the markets likely to remain jittery for some time at least, i do not think it too late to short them, though FOGL would probably be my choice

All these oil type companies connected to the Falklands Area are long shots, that is why most of us have invested in them. Blue sky or bust.
Oil will for many years be a valuable commodity, with the share values of these companies being solely determined on the amount of oil found and the cost of retrieving it.
The so called natural level will be mainly down to supply and demand.
I doubt the price per barrel will fall to none retrievable profit levels for many years to come, should the amount anticipated on the surveys be forthcoming.
A huge gamble? definitely! but with a possible massive upside.

i am very lazy, so what is the estimated b/e level for oil and say FOGL then?

Cynic ..... Just buy some you cheap skate ; ))

no, but shall almost certainly short

Shorting FOGL is a good idea, thanks cynic.

watch the 9 dma at about 74 ....

The SP of all the Falkland linked oil companies are linked to the oil price especially over the short term.
Who knows when the next terrorist threat, global financial problem and any of the many situations that effect the oil price, will occur. Next year, month, tomorrow or the next few minutes.
I appreciate any share can be effected by such news, but there are so many things that specifically effect oil prices.
Obviously a personal view but, I think you short these shares at your peril.

Aye !! I am in this long term !


But

Once upon a time in a place overrun with monkeys, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for 10 each.

The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest, and started catching them.

The man bought thousands at 10 and as supply started to diminish, they became harder to catch, so the villagers stopped their effort.

The man then announced that he would now pay 20 for each one. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.

But soon the supply diminished even further and they were ever harder to catch, so people started going back to their farms and forgot about monkey catching.

The man increased his price to 25 each and the supply of monkeys became so scarce that it was an effort to even see a monkey, much less catch one.

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys for 50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf.

While the man was away the assistant told the villagers 'Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has bought.

I will sell them to you at 35 each and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for 50 each.'

The villagers rounded up all their savings and bought all the monkeys.



They never saw the man or his assistant again and once more there were monkeys everywhere.

And that my friend is pretty much how the stock market works!

Smiler,

Excellent. One of the best and Funniest analogy of the workings of the market I have ever seen, and it contains a lot of truth.
Don't want to pinch this, so can you please put same post on the Talk to yourself thread as I am sure others not linked to FOGL will appreciate it.
Regards Greek.

Thats ok greekman you copy it ; ))

OK done. Cheers

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Direct Link: http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=14917&formato=html

BHP Billiton visits Falklands to organize oil drilling program
Representatives of global minerals giant, BHP Billiton, were in the Falkland Islands last week laying the groundwork for a Southern Ocean drilling programme, which they hope will begin in some 12 to 18 months time.


Zoom

Texas based Deb Pfeiffer, who is head of the Falklands exploration project and Julie Tushingham, who is the External Affairs Manager for subsidiary, BHP Billiton Petroleum (America) Inc. global exploration programme, said that it was still too early to say what impact drilling operations would have on the lives of people in the Falklands.

They seemed confident, however, that the companys programme would not be impeded by the melt-down of financial institutions going on in other parts of the world.

Since they entered into a licence farm-in agreement with Falkland Oil and Gas Ltd in October 2007 and acquired a 51% holding in the company, the presence of global exploration giant, BHP Billiton, has considerably increased interest in oil exploration in Falklands waters.

Described as the worlds largest diversified resources company, as at June 30, 2008, by their own reckoning BHP Billiton had some 41,000 employees working in over 100 operations in 25 countries.

BHP Billiton was formed in 2001 from a merger of two successful companies with historical roots going back on both sides to the 19th century.

The merged company, which has headquarters in Melbourne and London, has substantial interests in oil, gas, liquefied natural gas and diamonds. Other commodities in which the company has major interests include aluminium, energy coal and metallurgical coal, copper, manganese, iron ore, uranium, nickel, silver and titanium minerals.

Currently involved in oil exploration in ten different countries, BHP Billiton has extensive experience of drilling in deep water environments. (PN).-

Thanks, cynic...in profit now with shorting FOGL. This will go to 20-30p.

i didn't short, not because i didn't trust my judgment, but because the spread is silly - invariably 4-5p

If oil keeps on dropping there will come a time when the Falkland projects will be put on hold or some of them anyway, and all you need for these stocks to drop is a rumour !, one day they will come right but perhaps not right now !.

agreed Smiler! Once the fear subsides in the markets (and it will....) and the oil price comes back to $100 per barrel (and it will....) anyone buying at these levels or lower shall be rewarded as fogl SP comes back to its usual trading range. This is one to trade - who knows whether there is oil in economic amounts in the FIs (the experts THINK they may have a decent chance)? I hope and think too that they have a decent chance of drilling a gusher but in the meantime i am going to buy on the big dips and sell some on the rises.