I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Worth a wee punt in the run up to interims Thurs, was hoping for below 150.0 late Frid, didn't happen. Got in @ 153.5 Tgt 180.0 stop 140.0.

Added @ 148.5
This was the price I hoped to get in on friday. Probably a suicide trade but this company are so inept at the mo, there is every chance they will press the wrong button and get it right just to naff off the shorters. :O)

Chris - I've decided to stay clear - so your trades will be just fine :-)

skinny - I doubt it, he who dares :O)

Possibly some fallout from the news today that MF Global U.S.(which was spun off from Man Grp) has stopped accepting CFD trades and is likely to declare bankruptcy.

"STATEMENT ON MF GLOBAL

Man Group notes that its former subsidiary, MF Global Holdings Ltd, has today filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

Man Group confirms that MF Global is an entirely independent company. Neither Man nor its wholly owned single managers have counterparty exposure to MF Global."

This is a clear SELL.

so which creditors has MF Global sought protection from and is there going to be any "knock on" effect?

interesting that their CEO was former CEO of the "vampyre squid" lets see if they have lost in the demise of MFGlobal.

indeed - chrisc good luck - you may need it i am afraid - still skinny has given you a helping hand by not buying!!! as you say he who dares.......... hope it goes well for you - i am still undecided - waiting more info

I'm buying... not.

Will be stopped out very shortly, not one of my better trading decisions this year -13.5

Sub 140p.

Down 10% now ..incredible.

Note from Credit Suisse:
"We do not expect any material surprises in the interim results given the company released its pre close trading update on the 28 Septemeber. The key financials from the pre close trading update, included AuM at end Sept of $65bn, H1 adjusted PBT of $185m, H1 adjusted EPS of 7.5cents and net cash of $700m. The company also committed to holding the dividend constant for the 9 months ending 31 Dec 11 on a pro rata basis at 16.5c (22c full year).
Expect further decline in AuM at 1 Nov 2011: We expect AuM to have declined further over the past month to c$63bn. We attribute the decline to weaker investment performance (c-$1bn) predominately in AHL with some offset from long only funds. We expect FX to add c$1.8bn due to US$ weakness. On top of the $0.8bn de-gear on 1 October (as announced in pre close) we estimate a further $0.8bn due to AHL weakness. Finally on flows, this is more difficult to predict but we expect further net redemptions due to the general risk aversion across the industry in October which we believe could result in net redemption up to c$1bn.
No exposure to MF Global: Man has confirmed that the company or its wholly owned single managers have no counterparty exposure to MG Global.
Valuation implying zero performance fees: The shares are trading on FY12E PE of 8.4x or c7.3x (ex net cash) vs.sector on c11x. We accept there remains downside risk to performance fees but even excluding all FY12 performance fees and net of cash the shares trade on c11.5x.

FT sector watcher comment on AHL fund:
"AHL - a decrease of 0.6% week-on-week (for comparison, the MSCI World Index week-on-week change was an increase of 0.4%). These figures are as of 31 October 2011. In the past four weeks, the MSCI World Index has had weekly increases, and has risen 13.3% since 3 October. On the other hand, AHL has had four consecutive weeks of declines, and is off 7.6% in the same time period. We note, however, that if we incorporate AHLs hot streak of seven consecutive weeks of weekly NAV increases (which started on 4 July), AHL is up 2.1% against the MSCI World Index being off 9.7%
Off 10% yesterday. I think the market doesnt believe they have no exposure to MF Global. Truth is they did a lot of trade with MF Global but pulled it 3 months ago. Great trick. Sell a business for a $1.7bn profit then pull your business which triggers an unexpected quarterly loss which leads to increased risk taking by the company on the balance sheet."

Is the honeymoon over for Man Group and GLG?

Laurence Fletcher, 17:21, Wednesday 2 November 2011

LONDON (Reuters) - A tumbling share price and further client outflows have made for a rocky first year for a combined Man Group (LSE: EMG.L - news) and GLG (Berlin: G7G.BE - news) , leaving some asking if the union will ever find its 'happily ever after'.

As it prepares to unveil interim results on Thursday, the world's largest listed hedge fund firm faces shareholder frustration after September's revelation of $2.6 billion (1.6 billion pound) of outflows -- with GLG in particular suffering -- which sent its shares plunging 25 percent in a single day.

While many of Thursday's figures were already flagged up in that update, some analysts think Man (Other OTC: MAGOF.PK - news) could use a chunk of its $1 billion regulatory capital surplus for a share buyback or special dividend.

Whether such a move would appease investor discontent over the $1.6 billion deal to buy GLG -- which CEO Peter Clarke once described as "the most significant move in alternative investment that we have seen" -- remains to be seen.

Opinion has so far fluctuated as to whether it was a shrewd move that diversified Man's business and rebuilt assets -- a view prevalent after GLG's inflows in the first half of 2011 -- or a costly, ill-judged departure from the firm's heritage of computer-driven funds.

"Man had a very tidy business, there was nothing wrong with that at all. But they forget the blonde that brought them to the party," said Chris Cruden, CEO of Insch Capital, referring to the now $24.9 billion AHL computer fund, of which he was one of the first employees.

"Clearly GLG was overpriced. If you were to price GLG as a stand-alone asset management business today, what value would you put on it? Man's share price is unquestionably being pulled down by GLG," he said.

A graph of Man's share price makes unpleasant viewing for all but hedge fund short-sellers.

STOCK FALLS

The stock has almost halved since the GLG deal closed a little over a year ago, while the FTSE 100 (Euronext: VFTSE.NX - news) in comparison has fallen just 5 percent.

Since Clarke took over from hedge fund industry 'godfather' Stanley Fink in March 2007 -- just months before the onset of the subprime crisis -- Man's shares are down by nearly three-quarters, although this does not take into account the $1.40 shareholders received after Man's sale of brokerage MF Global.

While some analysts point to the shares' cheap valuation, a number of shareholders question management's strategy and ask if a bid -- most likely from a U.S. asset manager -- could appear.

"They need to start thinking very, very carefully about what they do because otherwise they have to put themselves up for sale totally," said a top 30 investor who asked not to be named.

"Their track record with acquisitions has been less than brilliant to put it mildly ... Basically the market has written off the $1.6 billion (Man paid for GLG)."

Man Group declined to comment.

bit of blue today i see - in expectation of what tomorrow one wonders?! most not expecting much gla

I am hoping that any bad news is already in the price!

StockMarketWire.com
Man Group reported statutory pretax profit on continuing operations for the half-year to end-September of $154m compared to the pre-close estimate of $145m.

The hedge fund manager said adjusted PBT was $195m compared to the pre-close estimate of $185m after additional performance fees at period end.

Funds under management (FUM) at end-September were of $64.5bn, down from $69.1bn at end-March, reflecting inflows of $1bn, investment movement of -$2.5bn, FX translation effects of -$1.4bn and other movements of -$1.7bn.

FUM at end-October was around $63.5bn, with redemptions lower than in September. Further guaranteed product de-gear was $0.8bn on 1st November 2011.

Interim dividend maintained at 9.5 cents per share; final dividend for the three months to 31st December expected to be 7.0 cents per share, to give a maintained pro-rated dividend for the nine month period.

There will be an additional capital return by way of a share repurchase of up to $150m by calendar year end.

Peter Clarke, CEO, said: "The last six months began with record sales, but ended with a spike in redemptions as extreme volatility severely tested investor risk appetite in the late summer. Since period end we saw reduced redemptions in October, and we ended the month with around $63.5 billion under management.

"Liquid, diversifying returns are at the core of our offer to investors, and our broad range of alternative investment strategies produced overall outperformance in tough trading conditions.

"We remain focused on investment performance and profitable asset growth worldwide, but also on operational efficiency. Actions taken so far this year have secured $40 million of savings for 2012 from our debt repurchase and outsourcing initiatives. We are planning on the basis that investor appetite will remain subdued whilst markets remain volatile and uncertain, but are well positioned to capture demand when sentiment improves and investors return to markets."

Arbuthnot securities have a 192p target.