looks like its hit oil, don't know whats gonna happen, any idea's ???

Yes, me too. I am in on average @ 64 pence... Does anyone have any estimates as to the likely value / share price once oil starts flowing in the Netherlands?

Gerry

RNS out just now: CSSEL has changed its mind! I wonder what on earth they must have bought with the proceeds that they thought would be a better investment. Anyhow, mine not to reason why.

Northern Petroleum PLC - Holding(s) in Company
For immediate release: 07 April 2006

Northern Petroleum Plc

('the Company')

Notification of Shareholding

The Board of Northern Petroleum Plc received notification on 06 April from
Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited ('CSSEL') that, as a result of
disposals on 04 April, CSSEL no longer has a notifiable interest in the issued
ordinary share capital of the Company.

-Ends-

Panmure Brokers have put a price target of 360 for NOP , how realistic this is I don't know .

Gerry,

I've seen no estimates of NOP's likely performance - a bit of an oversight I'd say, given this company's recent upturn in its fortunes. However with Papekop and its associated power generation plus the gas from the other Dutch licences, I'd say pick a number between 220 and the broker target of 360.

So definitely looks like a long term hold. Thank you sould traders.

Gerry, how's this for a consolation prize? Panmure's reports are all posted on the company website at

http://www.northpet.com/research/index.html

Anyhoo, here's the detail of their upgraded reserves report of 23rd March. (note the bits about which reserves are stated gross and which are net to Northern!)

The juciy part is that NAV is actually reckoned at 341p per share and Panmure think that the current low market valuations are grossly unfair.

NORTHERN PETROLEUM

Buy 94.5p (Remains Unchanged) Target Price: 360.0p (145.0p) Stock Codes: NOP.L / NOP.LN EPS Dec 2004A -0.91p Dec 2005E -2.04p Dec 2006E -1.67p
Panmure Gordon Estimates
Market Cap: 51m
Analyst Tim Heeley +44 (0)20 7459 3606 tim.heeley@panmure.com

Northern Petroleum Reserves update

Northern Petroleum has released a competent-party update on the new NAM licences.

The addition of 21mmboe 2P net to Northern is a significant addition to its reserve base.

The recent loan from Standard Bank for 40m is for the development of these reserves.

Sorry, I'm having difficulty posting the whole article in one go.

Here's the rest (I hope).

The report was done for the Andel, Brakel, Geesbrug, Grolloo and Ottoland fields, and states 1P reserves of 35mmboe gross, 2P reserves of 72.6mmboe gross and 3P reserves of 91.7mmboe gross.

The reserves are stated gross. The licence interests are subject to the Minister of Economic Affairs designating Energie Beheer Nederland BV, a state-owned company, as a 40% participant in the field developments in return for a pro-rata share of sunk costs and a pro-rata share of all future costs of the joint ventures. The Northern interests are subject to a NAM 50% Net Profits Interest (NPI) after Northern has recovered 130% of its capital costs. Northern effectively, therefore, has a 30% working interest.

The vast majority of the reserves are behind pipe and Proven and, as such, can be relatively easily monetised. Being mostly gas and situated at a major hub in the European gas distribution network, the market for the gas is certainly present. The project financing for this project has been secured from Standard Bank.

Based on these additional reserves, Northern is now booking 34.6mmboe net 2P reserves and we move our NAV to 341p and our target to 360p from 145p. Shares should thus experience solid growth, but keep an eye out for a potential takeover as NOP is trading so significantly below Proven and Probable reserves.

Very pretty chart today, which I'd love to paste here, but after the uphill struggle that was posting the broker report, I'm just going to say "163/166, up 11" !!

Thank you soul traders. Since purchasing shares before the Isle of Wight exploration I haven't kept up with their news. I've recently invested in CDL (hoping for another JKX - which I missed out on when it was tipped at about 25 pence) and SEY. I know I'm not diversifying in the truse sense of the word but I am diversifying in the oil sector!

Gerry, on the subject of "long term hold" (your post No. 400), I have just one word to say:

"Italy".

I'm viewing Holland as a very respectable starter, but Italy could turn out to be the main course. Avington-3 is the breadsticks and if I'm feeling really frivolous I might say that Guyane is the after-dinner mints.

Seriously, I would be very interested to see what comes out of the Italian scenario; naturally it's being overshadowed at present by near-term events in Holland and quite rightly so. In the future, however, who knows? I like the idea that NOP could turn out to be one of those E&P's that just grows, and grows, and grows and grows as they keep adding producing assets from a large and well-diversified portfolio. There's no reason why not, IMHO.
DYOR, etc :o)

Actually Gerry, it was JKX I had in mind when writing my last post. I think NOP could very well do a good impersonation of JKX and maybe even outstrip it. I missed out on JKX too though! My other tip for anybody who likes a decent-sized E&P portfolio in an undervalued company is Black Rock Oil & Gas (BLR). It might not be for the faint-hearted or widows and orphans though!!

I too am heavily concentrated on the oil & gas sector, plus a few plays in mining. I know that like you mentioned, some would criticise this as being insufficiently diversified HOWEVER with emerging E&P's you have a lot of potential upside, plus the market is easy to keep track of because they publish commodity prices every day, and you know they can sell their product. I mean, where else can you go to find a company in which you know with reasonable certainty how much their product is worth at any given moment AND that they can sell it without getting landed with returns/duds/stuff nobody likes that they have to dispose of at a massive discount? For me that's worth a lot more than diversifying my plays on the High Street or into other, more risky, small-cap sectors where you have less of an overview. Particularly when you live in Germany and can't go and visit Woolies or Dixons to see how they're getting along.

I'm open to contrary views, of course, but feel at the moment I have developed a good understanding of - and confidence in - a sector in which profits are there for the taking.

I wholeheartedly agree with you. Whatever I invest is a gamble and gives more thrills per buck than FTSE 100. The profits are certainly there for the taking, and where can you find quick returns like we've had with NOP on the FTSE? All the best with yours and talk with you again.

Morning All. Sad news from NOP this morning; however, I doubt that this has much to do with this morning's dip.

Northern Petroleum PLC - Death of Director

For immediate release: 10 April 2006

Northern Petroleum Plc

('the Company')

Death of Director

Northern Petroleum is sad to announce the death, during the weekend, of David
Roberts, aged 65, a non-executive director of the Company.

Another nice little push today, up 4.5 to 162/165, getting close to recent high of 166p.

Anyone have any idea what the recent rise is for? There is no news out today, but
something tells me were heading for 200p and over very shortly!

We've beat our recent high Soul Traders, good luck everybody!

Barclay

I hope my pacemaker keeps up with this rise. :-)

Yeehaaah!!! I love this stock! I go away for three days - it jumps 10%!!

This Trader's Soul is Happy.

(I think I should go away more often, too) :o)

Barclay - no news, just big boys picking up a bargain, IMHO. Lots of purchases about in the 100,000-share ballpark. Many look like sales because of the way these trades are identified, with bigger ones getting reported later. This stock surely has the legs for a good long run. (DYOR though!)

Myownmoney - if you don't post on this thread after the bank holiday, should I call the paramedics?? :o)

Soul trader, I agree what a lovely stock, it helps the pension a bit...
Be nice to see some news though.

I have a sneaky feeling that the newsflow may be a bit thin for a month or two, Myown. Last year NOP released its results in June and September, so we've probably still got a while to wait for figures, but since they're not actually producing yet, there won't be much to report. Meanwhile Papekop and the other Dutch stuff is targeted for development. I guess that sometime in the next few months we should be hearing announcements that they will be drilling production wells in Holland. The exciting news according to the Chairman's Statement in the last Interims is that "We will now pursue this opportunity (in Holland) to bring a total of six oil and gas discoveries into production during the period of late 2006 and into 2007." And maybe Avington-3 will yield something positive. Additionally, Hardman Resources may make an announcement about the prospectivity of the Guyane explorations if we're really lucky. This too ought to be drilled this year, although as we're all well aware, drilling schedules are notorious for slipping.

I do think that the SP has further to go just on the basis of the NAV mentioned in earlier posts, however positive newsflow will certainly ease the upward progression. Just be prepared to wait a bit longer for anything concrete, IMO.