http://t1ps.com/shop/page-article/action-article.show/id-130020762
"Trap Oil (TRAP) was floated at 43p in earlyish 2011 and it has been downhill thereafter to, now, 16p, capitalising the company at £36m. Regardless of merit, many junior oil exploration shares have been similarly treated this last two years. I am not sure of the reason but I am certain that the result has been foolish - institutional investors having taken their placing tire of hanging around. The result is a constant drip drip drip of sales and, in a sense, it is impossible to know when it comes to an end.
Trap's MD, Mark Groves-Gidney, feels aggrieved. This is partly because he has put his life's savings on the line in this company to no effect yet in market terms but mainly because Trap has delivered on the balance of probabilities and the market flatly refuses to recognise this.
He is 53 years old and cannot jump ship and start off again elsewhere. He is a poker player by nature and keeps his eye firmly on the prize and therefore does not needlessly go out on a limb. For instance, I tried to induce him into agreeing that Clegg is a moron - a palpably sensibly proposition. But he was not having any of it. He demurred - no doubt on the grounds that he might just conceivably end up dealing with a LibDem in HMG where there is no case for antagonising those with whom he must do business. Mark is a serious player.
He is an expert on North Sea oil exploration licences and Trap's business is to identify opportunities and get others to finance them. Very sensible. But not easy.
Until last Friday, it kept a large supply of cash to fund its betting. Banks do not lend to companies like Trap and investors can't be bothered. Caution dominates Trap's policy.
However, on Friday, Trap came out to play and completed a deal with Dyas in respect of its 15% interest in Ithaca Energy (IAE)'s Athena producing field. Trap paid £19m, leaving £8m over for whatever. For this Trap gets £2m a month for, Trap hope, considerably more than twelve months. Trap reckon on 14m barrels coming their way whilst Ithaca think it might be 26m (it all depends upon recoverability in practice). But, with a bit of luck, Trap might make a very good profit. As ever, luck plays its part but Trap's shareholders are betting on Mark's judgement. That does not seem silly to me.
Elsewhere there is drill result after drill result on its way. One is Romeo where Trap has 12.5% and operated by SunCor. Drilling started here 97 days ago and target depth (circa 15,000 ft.) should have been hit at 75 days. Why is the operator still down there? It might be drilling delays followed by a plug and abandonment. But there might be oil there: if so, will it flow averagely or big time? Either way it is, on the balance of the probabilities, worth millions of pounds to Trap. This could be between 10p and 40p per share to Trap.
Trap also has hopes at Scotney, Magnolia, Crazy Horse, Brule, Bordeaux, Niobe and others. It is of course impossible to value these with a high degree of accuracy. But, on a per share basis, these might tot up to 200p collectively. Trap can surely only go upwards. 16p is ridiculously low."