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SHELL  announces further cuts in its oil reserves: For the 3rd time Shell has cut its oil reserves by a further 500 million barrels. It has also announced the resignation of it's Chief Financial Officer Judith Boynton after the huge cuts in oil and gas reserves this year but she will remain with the company. The total effect of the cut in reserves will cost the company approximately 100 million dollars per year. WH Smith has confirmed Permira, the private U.K. private equity firm, has approached about a possible take over of the company worth 375 pence a share Spear & Jackson The FSA is probing the CEO regarding making illegal sales of company stock in secret through brokerage accounts in the British Virgin Islands over the last two years Stagecoach said its annual results would beat market expectations and unveiled plans to return up to 250 million pounds to shareholders.

Calendar: United Kingdom	United States (GMT)	Europe & World (GMT)
Caldwell Investments (F), Cyprotex (F), Minmet (F), Compass Group (I), ITV (AGM), Griffin Group (EGM), Reckitt Benckiser (Trading), Stagecoach (Trading) 08:30 March PPI 17:30 March BRC monthly retail sales monitor 23:30 RICS March housing market survey	Safeco Corp, Eli Lilly, 3M, Cendant, Fannie Mae,Hasbro, Lexmark 15:00 Leading Indicators Mar 0.3%	D

Data Download	Calendar	US Zone	HTML Edit		Currency Calc			Broker Upgrades	Director Dealings
David@SnappyTrader.com    www .SnappyTrader.com		Pre Market Futures	FTSE -6	DAX -2	DOW -26	S&P -2.8	NAS -4	Tips & Recommendations

many thx again croc ..P.S how do u see the latest Middle East situation effecting the market tomorrow am ( latest assasination etc )

Evening all, hope you all had a good Easter Break, I did.

Can't deny Croc's trend channel, just wondering when it's going
to end as all channels eventually do.

Looking at the last 4 months, we could say that we are stagnant
in a sideways trading pattern.
The price action and levels over the Easter break look mighty
similar to the price action and levels over the Christmas break
to me.

Swing chart made a lower low in March and has yet to set a lower
or higher high to help confirm or deny a change in trend.
Indices are at/near their highs at the moment, so unless folk
decide that the US is under-valued at these levels, I'm still
looking to short pops in preference to buying dips.
Won't stop me scalping Blue Chip Divi paying longs that get smashed
down, though. They are always in demand by funds and High Yield LTBH
investors and usually bounce back up quite nicely.

Up, down or sideways, doesn't matter, as long as you go with the flow
and don't try and fight it.

It didn't work last year, due to the strong trend up from very
low levels, but don't forget we are now coming up to the old
saying of 'Sell in May, come back again on St. Ledger's Day.'
Wonder if it will work this year. ;-)

Melnibone.

O

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4600

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4500

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4400

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4300

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4200

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4100

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3300

Updated PnF chart that starts from when we were last at these levels years ago.

To me it's currently showing a sideways trading range that's tried to breakout higher and

lower and failed each time. To me it seems pointless trying to call the direction. I'll

let the market speak to me instead and take a smaller profit by following the direction

rather than risk a potential large loss by guessing and pre-empting a move.

Melnibone.

6 Month swing chart.
Note the swing low in March that was lower than the swing lows
in February and December.

Some folk say this was due to the Madrid bombings that exarcerbated
a down swing. Until it makes a higher swing high, and I'm not saying
it won't, I'll follow the chart.
The market has a habit of 'selecting' news items to give it an excuse
to do what it wants to do anyway.

I don't know of anyone that has a firm conviction on market direction
at the moment.

Fundies and Brokers need people to invest, so they'll always be Bullish
anyway, unless they're a Hedge fund of course ;-), so I rarely listen
to them.

Melnibone.

Melnibone
Many thanks for your comments, currently I am considering how to make a profit by using the consistent angles of the uptrend for daytrading futures. Interesting huh!

Kantona Yes it has to make the market nervous, but it still seems to head in the direction it wants to after a small correction. Probably because the market is mainly computer traded and they do not have emotions.
What are your thoughts on it?

D,

Evening all,

Croc, your comment on LLOY - pity you couldn't have done it in 2 weeks. That is after I've got back in, rather than before - if it picks up in the next week, I'll just have to pass on it this time!

Updated 4/16 for Monday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 4/19
UP Above 10,460
DN Below 10,420

Upside Break
Dow trends slowly higher, breaks range to upside.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow is gearing up for a solid break from the range, but the direction is still in the air...An upside break through the top of the range at 10,430 will make for a serious rally. Watch the boundaries closely tomorrow..."
The Dow moved slowly higher throughout the session today, eventually getting an upside break from the trading range at 10,430, which increased the day's momentum. Today's upmove was good for 55 points and may continue higher Monday.

Looking at the 15 Minute Chart shows that the Dow has formed a very tight consolidation at the highs of today's upmove from 10,420 to 10,460. The consolidation has formed above resistance, which makes a solid case for an upside continuation Monday. Watch for a break through 10,460 to indicate that another push higher will occur.

Otherwise, a downside break from the consolidation at 10,420 will make for another wave lower within the wide trading range. Watch this level closely, as a break could push the index back down toward recent lows at 10,320.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow has formed a tight consolidation at the highs of the 5 Minute Chart from 10,420 to 10,460. Watch for a break from this range for direction at the Open.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we entered the market Long today at 10,440 and are still in the trade. We will continue to hold stops at 10,420, and will stay Long above 10,460. We will enter Shorts below 10,420, using 20 point stops.

NASDAQ & S&P

The NASDAQ held within its clear downtrend today, while the S&P is holding near the upper boundary of its trading range. Each index provides clear boundaries to watch for Monday's trading. *

Summary

The Dow pushed slowly, but steadily off the lows this morning, which led to an upside break through resistance at 10,430. Look for continued strength Monday, should the consolidation be broken to the upside. Otherwise, a downside break will make for another move lower within the range.

Morning all, nice sunny start to the day here in the West Midlands

Morning all

Sunny here in the South too - an almost cloud free morning!

Looks like we're hogging all your rain up in Cheshire.:-(

Never mind, we'll sell you some expensive water in the Summer
when you all get the 'Wrong Kind of Rain'. ;-)

Market doesn't seem to know where to go until the US opens.
Typical Monday morning, I suppose.

Melnibone.

Croc, ref your comment that computers trade the markets and
are free from emotion.

I'm not arguing with that point, but surely computers do what
they are programmed to do and this is done by Humans who are
heavily influenced by emotions?

Also, I think that most daytraders and floor traders use 'seat of
the pants' reaction trading which can clearly be seen by the rapid
moves on News Items.

Will computer programming then cause the computer trading to follow
the lead of the 'Human' traders, or will they blindly follow their
'orders' and reverse the 'Human' trading direction to that originally set by
their Human programmers?

If they are programmed to follow the market direction with automatic
buys and sells at pre-determined levels then they will be led by
the nose by Human traders and used to set off a move in a required
direction.

All interesting stuff.

Melnibone.

Just had the info from BT about the new phone charges. The monthly charge is going up slightly, but the call charges are dropping substancially. It certainly makes it less attractive to pay someone else of calls.

Melnibone
They are automatic with very little human intervention nowadays. Hence the continuation of trends from the previous nights close through the following mornings open. If there is news over night and the market moves away from the trend it is normally pulled back very quickly by programmed trading.

Out of interest I went long FTSE 4522 this morning based on this crazy idea!


D.

Just added SMWH (347p) to my long 10 long term buys. It is 10% below the offer with a reasonable chance of another buyer pushing the price higher.
Havent put a fortune on it ...

Will be at the E*Trade Manchester seminar on Friday afternoon if anyone fancies saying hello. Its advertised every so often above if you want details

Wish you well with SMWH Croc - did anyone else manage to
get in first thing this morning? If you did - congratulations!
All the usual retail take-over suspects are gaining today!

Hope your trend works Croc.

Out of interest, if the S@P is in a sideways trading range then
it has approx 30 points upside to the top of the range.
If the FTSE follows at the same rate this will give potential
upside of 4650(ish). This is not a million miles away from your
latest chart analysis at the top of this thread.
That would be nice from your 4522 entry point, wouldn't it. :-)

Melnibone.

Melnibone
Just took a 19 point profit while the other markets look weak I might as well sell into the FTSe strengh :-)

This is going to put the cat amongst the pigeons - but if you know what you're doing - the little-known principle of Equitable Liability may
help where the amount of tax being demanded is wrong.


Stung by the recent National Audit Office report which revealed
that 14bn pounds in tax remained unpaid at March 2003, the
Revenue is now chasing up unpaid tax from up to 30 years ago.
The department is dusting off pre-self assessment case files
where tax had been stood over following an appeal, but never
collected.

wel done croc