aberdeen asset managemnt this company has fallen from 1.90 per share in may down to 1.34 now. despite having really good broker recommendations, as being a strong buy. Lets hear views and whether or not if you thing they have a good chance of recovery. I have quite a few shares and am wondering whether to stick with or move the money into something else.

370p breached.

Out 367.5 left buy order on spreads @ 371p

Final Results http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5163113

Final Results

Released : 30 Nov 2015


RNS Number : 2853H

Aberdeen Asset Management PLC

30 November 2015










ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC

RESULTS FOR THE YEAR TO 30 SEPTEMBER 2015 (AUDITED)





Highlights



· Net revenue is up 5% to £1,169.0 million (2014: £1,117.6 million)

· Underlying profit before tax increased to £491.6 million (2014: £490.3 million)

· Continued strong year-end cash position of £567.7 million

· Final dividend of 12.0p per share (2014: 11.25p), making 19.5p for the full year (2014: 18.0p)

· AuM £283.7 billion (2014: £324.4 billion) reflecting negative sentiment towards Emerging Markets

· Product diversification and cost discipline progress in line with strategy

Just said that..you blind or what

Just putting up the highlights Stanley, you know it makes sense :o)

Little respite from emerging market pressure for AAM

Read more: http://www.scotsman.com/business/management/little-respite-from-emerging-market-pressure-for-aam-1-3962943#ixzz3t5qG45d0
Follow us: @TheScotsman on Twitter | TheScotsmanNewspaper on Facebook



The chill winds from emerging markets show few signs of easing soon, Aberdeen Asset Management (AAM) admitted yesterday, as the fund manager posted flat profits and its tenth consecutive quarter of an outflow of funds.

Unveiling annual pre-tax profits of £491.6 million against £490.3m, AAM chief executive Martin Gilbert said: “The cyclical correction in Asian and emerging markets and resulting negative investor sentiment has, as expected, led to further outflows from our equities business.”


However, Gilbert said that, while “the current weakness may have some way to run” he believed that the argument for investing in high-growth emerging economies remained “compelling for patient investors”.





AAM’s assets under management at the end of its financial year on 30 September totalled £283.7 billion, compared with £324.4bn in the year-ago period. Net equities’ outflows lifted from £13bn in 2014 to £16.4bn in the latest financial year.



The fund manager said this was exacerbated by a number of sovereign wealth funds cutting their market exposure in response to the low oil price.

The company has been diversifying its portfolio to reduce its exposure to emerging markets (excluding Asia), which now stands at about £26bn compared with £40bn three years ago.

Bill Rattray, AAM’s finance director, said: “We are still saying they will be quite volatile for a while, although maybe sentiment is just beginning to improve. It’s impossible to call the markets. I suspect it will be geared to when is the first Federal Reserve interest rate rise. It could go either way.”

On further potential outflow of funds from AAM, the finance director said it was difficult to predict but there was potential for further asset haemorrhaging “in the next two quarters”.





AAM completed a number of acquisitions in the financial year, the most notable being the Scottish Widows Investment Partnership (SWIP) deal.

Rattray said there had been about £50m of cost synergies achieved from the integration of SWIP, which included 150 job losses out of a headcount of 3,000.

He added that the fund manager would continue to focus on cost saving to protect profit margins in 2016, but it was expected to be mainly focused on back office and support operations. “We have not put a headcount number on it,” he said, regarding possible future potential job losses, but suggested it was likely to be much lower than the numbers lost in the past year.

AAM’s involvement in the takeover scene, and buffeting from the extended emerging market downturn, has led to some analysts to suggest it might be a takeover target itself.

“I guess you could argue that it is always possible to be seen as a target, but our job as management is just to get on and run the company,” Rattray said.

A final dividend of 12p makes a total payout for the year of 19.5p – up 8.3 per cent.

Been in this range since beginning of September, if it's going to bounce 300p (ish) has been consistant. Not sure how a US interest rise will affect SP. History would suggest that IF we get a Santa rally it performs. Place your bets.

With low and probably lower oil prices, Soveriegn Wealth Funds are having to withdraw deposits to meet ongoing budget needs - i.e. Saudi Arabia etc etc

With the new UK pension regulations I have just withdrawn the 25% of my pension fund tax free and will be drawing down the taxable amounts as best I can.

These stormy seas are very bad news for fund managers, and most of them can not even attain the performances of our indexes.

Probably best to keep out of Aberdeen A M and Mann Group etc, as assets under management may take some time to be rising again.

I suspect we shall soon see some mergers and take overs in this sector

Currently sp at 3 year low.

I know ADN is a punt on EM's which are out of favour due in part to weak commodities but at some point this will reverse. Meanwhile there is a punchy dividend whilst waiting for the rebound. ex-div 7th Jan (12p). Any thoughts?
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True George, plus an outside chance of a bid. Been a great trading stock for me personally as well.

Cheers Chris I think it could be quite profitable at there current 290p. I see from another thread your off now, have a good Christmas and all the best for the New Year.
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Cheers George, All The Best!

Barclay's have an under weight on ADN with a TP of 250p, at their current 269p they will be quite close to 250p when they go ex div (12p) this thursday. At a 3 year low atm.

In my post above I can't believe I put 'there' instead of 'their'.
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"In my post above I can't believe I put 'there' instead of 'their'.
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Nor can anyone else on this bored so I woodn't worrie about it...

I don't hold ADN, but am always on the lookout for high yielding stocks. However, apart from the 6.5% projected yield for 2016, there are only 2 brokers of the 17 quoted which are bullish on the stock, the EPS growth figure is -24% for 2016 and surely if the sp continues to decline the divi may be under threat?
Hopefully someone has a counter argument .............. though the 'It's cheap so may be open to a bid' is very speculative?

A bit more meat on the Barclays note:
"More than just an EM play – Downgrading to UW: The Aberdeen share strongly underperformed in 2015, down 33% vs the avg UK Asset Manager in our coverage universe +16%. It is tempting to view the share as solely a macro call on EM sentiment.
However, we highlight that significant other areas remain vulnerable to outflow risk. This would include the underperforming Global Equities desk, HY in Fixed Income, the SWIP life book and the Multi-Asset area of Aberdeen Solutions. We forecast a slowing of group outflows to £20bn in FY16 (from £34bn in FY15) but believe that risks are to the downside. With a significantly lower asset base in 2016 yoy, revenue declines of - 13% yoy are projected. Cost rationalization plans appear modest in response. The share is trading at 12.6x calendar 2016 PE for a projected 25% decline in EPS yoy. In the light of this negative earnings momentum and outflow risk, we downgrade the stock to Underweight, new target price 250p from 350p. The reduction in PT reflects lower EPS estimates and a lower chosen 2016 PE multiple of 11x (from 11.5x previously).
2/3 of stock of AUM in areas of outflow risk: Aberdeen’s flow outlook is not just at risk from macro EM sentiment, in our opinion. We highlight in 2015 there have been significant outflows from Global Equities (£6bn) and the Multi-Asset area of Aberdeen Solutions (£7bn). In total we identify ~£191bn or 2/3 of Aberdeen’s stock of AUM as concentrated in areas of significant outflows in 2015, and sentiment into 2016 still appears negative. This suggests outflow risk is firmly to the downside.
Limited cost cutting response: Management identified £50m of potential cost saves to offset the downwards pressure on management fees from lower average AUM base. However, precise details on these savings were lacking and management asserted they would be heavily back-loaded into 2017. This suggests operating margins are likely to significantly decline in 2016 - we project down to 37% (from 42% in FY15). 8% downgrade to 2016E EPS: Our forecast changes cause an 8% cut to 2016E EPS to 22.5p and 6% to 2017E to 24.2p. We are now forecasting a 25% decline in EPS yoy in FY16, then a 7% recovery in 2017. The share is trading at 12.6x calendar 2016E PE or 6.7% yield, although DPS cover looks thin for FY16. Our preference amongst the Asset Management names is our top sector pick Henderson (OW, PT320p)."

I'm not in either (yet), I would like to see the directors buying back in, Martin Gilbert CEO and with the co since 1983; Bill Rattray FD with co since 1985 both sold the vast majority of their shares 12 months ago (Dec 2014) @ 461p as did Andrew Laing. No purchases since then by these 3 directors.
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