I have copied a couple of posts from TMF that cover and disect todays news,
(Superhard)
March Quarterly Report:
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20060424/pdf/00608196.pdf
Suriname Announcement:
http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20060424/pdf/00608195.pdf
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(618)"Hardman ... has signed Heads of Agreement with Suriname's State Oil Company, Staatsolie Maatschappij Surinam N.V. ('Staatsolie') and its affiliate, Paradise Oil NV, to acquire a 40% working interest in the onshore Uitkijk and Coronie concessions in Suriname, South America. Hardman is now in the process of concluding ...arrangements for a third party potentially to participate in a small portion of Hardman's acquired interest.
The concessions are both large and prospective, covering a total area of approximately 3300 km2, and lying directly adjacent to Suriname's main producing oil fields, Tambaredjo and Calcutta (Figure 1).... Hardman will earn its interest via the funding of an initial exploration campaign of up to 25 wells capped at a maximum expenditure of US$ 8.5million; drilling is anticipated to commence in the 4th quarter of 2006..."
Another fairly low cost entry to new acreage, and it's in line with their focus on Atlantic basin plays although this is onshore acreage. With drilling of up to 25 wells commencing in Q4 this year, they are not mucking around!!! I like the acreage because of its proximity to the Tambaredjo oil field, which as per previously discussed by Scotty and Dean at the 2004 Melb presentation session, is a very prospective region with the clear presence of a good source kitchen, now all they need is a good migrating path and a trap! *Tongue in cheek* :)
In the Qtrly Report, the information I find most useful was the bit on Tiof...
"...The concept being optimised by the field operator, Woodside, is based on a dry tree unit, either a tension leg platform (TLP) or possibly a spar platform, with a light-weight integral drilling facility. Under this scenario, initial development would cover the central area of the Tiof field, with subsequent further development to be determined once production history has been obtained.
The key advantage of this proposed route... is that drilling and subsea equipment costs would be significantly reduced, thus bringing down the economic threshold of recoverable reserves per well. However, this concept does carry a higher initial facilities capital cost than a leased FPSO, with project capex indicatively in the range US$650-700 million. Given the complexity of the Tiof reservoir, and particularly concerns about the connectivity within the reservoir, reducing costs per well may be a key determinant of ultimate economic recovery. The next step would be a joint venture decision anticipated in the current quarter to take the selected concept forward..."
Sounds like very prudent risk management. For those of you wondering what a DTU is and its purpose, here's a useful PDF to read (page 4 to 8)...
http://www.slb.com/media/services/resources/oilfieldreview/ors00/win00/p2_9.pdf
Also, it sounds like they are very close to reaching an consensus over the proposed action plan going forward.
"...At this stage the concept is provisionally for six initial production wells which would access reserves in the region of 40-60 mmbbls and first oil should be by 2009. With the facility having some 15 to 18 well slots to allow for future expansion, there would be considerable potential for additional reserves to be accessed from further development drilling. Potential reserves could be further enhanced by better-than-assumed reservoir parameters. Indicatively, the first phase would be designed to handle oil production of approximately 50 mbopd. The Chinguetti FPSO could be used for final processing and storage prior to export, at least for the initial phase of development, although a dedicated floating storage and offtake vessel is also an option..."
So if we assume the impact of an additional 50MBO of production from Tiof by 2009, that's a significant boost to Hardman's earnings. Of the top of my head, with the expected upfront capex as well as the equity position of each JV partner very similar to Chinguetti, the DCF model should reflect approximately double the current 2009 expected earnings estimate. Actually, it would be slightly less then double because of the lower general consensus oil price projection for 2009 - which is around US35-US40. But based on that and a start up date of Q1 2009, Hardman should be earning around 250-300 million by 2009 - or more if higher oil price is sustained through till then. Based on today's price, that would put Hardman on a perspective PE of between 6.5x to 5.4x.
And that's not including any projected earnings from Uganda, which if found to be productive and commercial, would definitely be producing before then given that they are onshore/near the lake-shore. While on Uganda, testing equipment is already being mobilised on site for production testing of Mputa and Waraga. A second rig is also being mobilised to drill Mputa-2/Mputa-C at the same time. Should be quite an action-packed two months to say the least.