looks like its hit oil, don't know whats gonna happen, any idea's ???

Gerry, on the subject of "long term hold" (your post No. 400), I have just one word to say:

"Italy".

I'm viewing Holland as a very respectable starter, but Italy could turn out to be the main course. Avington-3 is the breadsticks and if I'm feeling really frivolous I might say that Guyane is the after-dinner mints.

Seriously, I would be very interested to see what comes out of the Italian scenario; naturally it's being overshadowed at present by near-term events in Holland and quite rightly so. In the future, however, who knows? I like the idea that NOP could turn out to be one of those E&P's that just grows, and grows, and grows and grows as they keep adding producing assets from a large and well-diversified portfolio. There's no reason why not, IMHO.
DYOR, etc :o)

Actually Gerry, it was JKX I had in mind when writing my last post. I think NOP could very well do a good impersonation of JKX and maybe even outstrip it. I missed out on JKX too though! My other tip for anybody who likes a decent-sized E&P portfolio in an undervalued company is Black Rock Oil & Gas (BLR). It might not be for the faint-hearted or widows and orphans though!!

I too am heavily concentrated on the oil & gas sector, plus a few plays in mining. I know that like you mentioned, some would criticise this as being insufficiently diversified HOWEVER with emerging E&P's you have a lot of potential upside, plus the market is easy to keep track of because they publish commodity prices every day, and you know they can sell their product. I mean, where else can you go to find a company in which you know with reasonable certainty how much their product is worth at any given moment AND that they can sell it without getting landed with returns/duds/stuff nobody likes that they have to dispose of at a massive discount? For me that's worth a lot more than diversifying my plays on the High Street or into other, more risky, small-cap sectors where you have less of an overview. Particularly when you live in Germany and can't go and visit Woolies or Dixons to see how they're getting along.

I'm open to contrary views, of course, but feel at the moment I have developed a good understanding of - and confidence in - a sector in which profits are there for the taking.

I wholeheartedly agree with you. Whatever I invest is a gamble and gives more thrills per buck than FTSE 100. The profits are certainly there for the taking, and where can you find quick returns like we've had with NOP on the FTSE? All the best with yours and talk with you again.

Morning All. Sad news from NOP this morning; however, I doubt that this has much to do with this morning's dip.

Northern Petroleum PLC - Death of Director

For immediate release: 10 April 2006

Northern Petroleum Plc

('the Company')

Death of Director

Northern Petroleum is sad to announce the death, during the weekend, of David
Roberts, aged 65, a non-executive director of the Company.

Another nice little push today, up 4.5 to 162/165, getting close to recent high of 166p.

Anyone have any idea what the recent rise is for? There is no news out today, but
something tells me were heading for 200p and over very shortly!

We've beat our recent high Soul Traders, good luck everybody!

Barclay

I hope my pacemaker keeps up with this rise. :-)

Yeehaaah!!! I love this stock! I go away for three days - it jumps 10%!!

This Trader's Soul is Happy.

(I think I should go away more often, too) :o)

Barclay - no news, just big boys picking up a bargain, IMHO. Lots of purchases about in the 100,000-share ballpark. Many look like sales because of the way these trades are identified, with bigger ones getting reported later. This stock surely has the legs for a good long run. (DYOR though!)

Myownmoney - if you don't post on this thread after the bank holiday, should I call the paramedics?? :o)

Soul trader, I agree what a lovely stock, it helps the pension a bit...
Be nice to see some news though.

I have a sneaky feeling that the newsflow may be a bit thin for a month or two, Myown. Last year NOP released its results in June and September, so we've probably still got a while to wait for figures, but since they're not actually producing yet, there won't be much to report. Meanwhile Papekop and the other Dutch stuff is targeted for development. I guess that sometime in the next few months we should be hearing announcements that they will be drilling production wells in Holland. The exciting news according to the Chairman's Statement in the last Interims is that "We will now pursue this opportunity (in Holland) to bring a total of six oil and gas discoveries into production during the period of late 2006 and into 2007." And maybe Avington-3 will yield something positive. Additionally, Hardman Resources may make an announcement about the prospectivity of the Guyane explorations if we're really lucky. This too ought to be drilled this year, although as we're all well aware, drilling schedules are notorious for slipping.

I do think that the SP has further to go just on the basis of the NAV mentioned in earlier posts, however positive newsflow will certainly ease the upward progression. Just be prepared to wait a bit longer for anything concrete, IMO.

Has anyone any idea on all the sells today??? Or is this just profit taking.

It is profit taking...NOP has more upside

I didn't want to be the first one to say it - but I agree!!

So this week's skid looks to have rubbed out last week's gains. Pity, but could be a buying opportunity, IMO.

A drop to 153p this morning, followed by a slight pull-back to 156/159. Could this be the end of the recent falls?

Hang, on Soul, I tell myself. Your patience will be rewarded. In a few years, this could out-perform JKX.

Can't wait for May, though - good news on VOG and BLR??

I'd just like to say guys that Northern's net asset value of 360p is based on oil at 40 dollars a barrel; the current price is nearly twice that and rising!

When we start production this year or early next year, the shares will get valued on
the price earnings ratio for that sector, based on spot oil prices, which nearly every anaylst agrees won't go back down to 40 dollars again: because of the scarcity of oil.

The current price dip doesn't worry me one bit: i have bought the most liquid asset in the world at 100 per cent discount to net asset value - even at the very conservative 40 dollars a barrel estimate.

barclay

Great post, Barclay - I'm not sure how NAV will translate into P/E as obviously it depends on the amount of production involved, but I agree that the higher resources prices will drive profits higher, and that clearly the sensible, conservative figures used in NOP's feasibility study are going to be far outstripped by the spot prices in the real world, at least for the near future.

Don't forget that much of the Dutch stuff in the near future is going to be gas-to-electricity. Naturally this is expected to be very profitable - indeed, it is an ideal situation as NOP and its JV partner will have a more vertically-integrated business with fewer middlemen, but it is the price of electricity at the wall socket in Holland, that will dictate revenue rates for the G2E project and not the price of crude. Just an observation - in the end, though, it should still all mean higher profits at the end of the day.

The bottom line? NOP is still a great buy, IMVHO. DYOR, etc.

Credit Suisse still buying.

Northern Petroleum PLC - Holding(s) in Company
For immediate release: 25 April 2006 Northern Petroleum Plc ('the Company') Notification of Shareholding The Board of Northern Petroleum Plc received notification on 24 April fromCredit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited ('CSSEL') that, as a result ofacquisitions on 20 April, CSSEL has an interest in 2,225,000 ordinary shares,which represents 4.13% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

Great news about Credit Suisse: it gives us a vote of confidence.

You are absolutely right about the gas thing soul trader, the gas totally outweighs the oil bit, but what i meant to say was 19 million 2p barrels of oil in the dutch portfolio doesn't seem like a lot, but when you do the maths, at say a conservative 40 dollars a barrel *19 million barrels: it works out at circa 800 million dollars!

This of which is discounted over so many years and costs deducted of course which if it was say 650 million would still leave 150 million dollars left - 85 to 90 million pounds, around what our current market cap is.
.
in my view this on its own, without the gas probably supports the share price of today - even without the oil and gas at papekop.

barclay