looks like its hit oil, don't know whats gonna happen, any idea's ???

Morning All. Sad news from NOP this morning; however, I doubt that this has much to do with this morning's dip.

Northern Petroleum PLC - Death of Director

For immediate release: 10 April 2006

Northern Petroleum Plc

('the Company')

Death of Director

Northern Petroleum is sad to announce the death, during the weekend, of David
Roberts, aged 65, a non-executive director of the Company.

Another nice little push today, up 4.5 to 162/165, getting close to recent high of 166p.

Anyone have any idea what the recent rise is for? There is no news out today, but
something tells me were heading for 200p and over very shortly!

We've beat our recent high Soul Traders, good luck everybody!

Barclay

I hope my pacemaker keeps up with this rise. :-)

Yeehaaah!!! I love this stock! I go away for three days - it jumps 10%!!

This Trader's Soul is Happy.

(I think I should go away more often, too) :o)

Barclay - no news, just big boys picking up a bargain, IMHO. Lots of purchases about in the 100,000-share ballpark. Many look like sales because of the way these trades are identified, with bigger ones getting reported later. This stock surely has the legs for a good long run. (DYOR though!)

Myownmoney - if you don't post on this thread after the bank holiday, should I call the paramedics?? :o)

Soul trader, I agree what a lovely stock, it helps the pension a bit...
Be nice to see some news though.

I have a sneaky feeling that the newsflow may be a bit thin for a month or two, Myown. Last year NOP released its results in June and September, so we've probably still got a while to wait for figures, but since they're not actually producing yet, there won't be much to report. Meanwhile Papekop and the other Dutch stuff is targeted for development. I guess that sometime in the next few months we should be hearing announcements that they will be drilling production wells in Holland. The exciting news according to the Chairman's Statement in the last Interims is that "We will now pursue this opportunity (in Holland) to bring a total of six oil and gas discoveries into production during the period of late 2006 and into 2007." And maybe Avington-3 will yield something positive. Additionally, Hardman Resources may make an announcement about the prospectivity of the Guyane explorations if we're really lucky. This too ought to be drilled this year, although as we're all well aware, drilling schedules are notorious for slipping.

I do think that the SP has further to go just on the basis of the NAV mentioned in earlier posts, however positive newsflow will certainly ease the upward progression. Just be prepared to wait a bit longer for anything concrete, IMO.

Has anyone any idea on all the sells today??? Or is this just profit taking.

It is profit taking...NOP has more upside

I didn't want to be the first one to say it - but I agree!!

So this week's skid looks to have rubbed out last week's gains. Pity, but could be a buying opportunity, IMO.

A drop to 153p this morning, followed by a slight pull-back to 156/159. Could this be the end of the recent falls?

Hang, on Soul, I tell myself. Your patience will be rewarded. In a few years, this could out-perform JKX.

Can't wait for May, though - good news on VOG and BLR??

I'd just like to say guys that Northern's net asset value of 360p is based on oil at 40 dollars a barrel; the current price is nearly twice that and rising!

When we start production this year or early next year, the shares will get valued on
the price earnings ratio for that sector, based on spot oil prices, which nearly every anaylst agrees won't go back down to 40 dollars again: because of the scarcity of oil.

The current price dip doesn't worry me one bit: i have bought the most liquid asset in the world at 100 per cent discount to net asset value - even at the very conservative 40 dollars a barrel estimate.

barclay

Great post, Barclay - I'm not sure how NAV will translate into P/E as obviously it depends on the amount of production involved, but I agree that the higher resources prices will drive profits higher, and that clearly the sensible, conservative figures used in NOP's feasibility study are going to be far outstripped by the spot prices in the real world, at least for the near future.

Don't forget that much of the Dutch stuff in the near future is going to be gas-to-electricity. Naturally this is expected to be very profitable - indeed, it is an ideal situation as NOP and its JV partner will have a more vertically-integrated business with fewer middlemen, but it is the price of electricity at the wall socket in Holland, that will dictate revenue rates for the G2E project and not the price of crude. Just an observation - in the end, though, it should still all mean higher profits at the end of the day.

The bottom line? NOP is still a great buy, IMVHO. DYOR, etc.

Credit Suisse still buying.

Northern Petroleum PLC - Holding(s) in Company
For immediate release: 25 April 2006 Northern Petroleum Plc ('the Company') Notification of Shareholding The Board of Northern Petroleum Plc received notification on 24 April fromCredit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited ('CSSEL') that, as a result ofacquisitions on 20 April, CSSEL has an interest in 2,225,000 ordinary shares,which represents 4.13% of the issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

Great news about Credit Suisse: it gives us a vote of confidence.

You are absolutely right about the gas thing soul trader, the gas totally outweighs the oil bit, but what i meant to say was 19 million 2p barrels of oil in the dutch portfolio doesn't seem like a lot, but when you do the maths, at say a conservative 40 dollars a barrel *19 million barrels: it works out at circa 800 million dollars!

This of which is discounted over so many years and costs deducted of course which if it was say 650 million would still leave 150 million dollars left - 85 to 90 million pounds, around what our current market cap is.
.
in my view this on its own, without the gas probably supports the share price of today - even without the oil and gas at papekop.

barclay

Keep in mind that costs will be covered by the 1.30 pounds refund from NAM for every pound NOP spend!

Barclay, I believe you're making the right noises, as my old maths teacher used to say, but please bear in mind that the standard method of valuing oil and gas reserves uses the "risked" basis, which takes the estimated reserves x guideline oil price and applies a percentage value to arrive at the net asset value. The percentage value used as a rule of thumb is usually 10%, although I have occasionally seen 15%. I'm not sure of the underlying criteria for which rate to apply.

The following figures are from Panmure's estimate:

"Based on these additional reserves, Northern is now booking 34.6mmboe net 2P reserves and we move our NAV to 341p and our target to 360p from 145p."

Full text under: http://www.northpet.com/research/files/Panmure_Morning_Note_24-03-06.pdf

I'd like to break down the maths a bit further but as I cannot do so with any certainty, I shall refrain. You'll agree that the above is good news, though.

Indeed, very good news and NOP looking cheap at this rate