.

I use this metric.

If BOR strikes big oil then FOGL will be over 400p before spudding Loligo.

If BOR strikes not so big oil, but oil, FOGL will be over 250p before spudding Loligo.

If BOR strikes no oil then FOGL will be 50p before spudding of Loligo.

Thats what I like about BOR drilling 2 wells before FOGL.

FOGL farm out news due next month or January.

Pretty much at this stage a risk free bet IMO.

Worth remembering the potential upside with BOR and FOGL.



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FOGL have 16 billion barrels of potential in their prospect list. Looking closer at what the BOR drills could mean for FOGL.

Borders and Southern's Darwin prospect and drill, if good, will light up circa 2.78 Billion barrels prospective from same play type leads that FOGL have.

Borders and Southern's Stebbing prospect and drill, if good, will light up circa 1 Billion barrels prospective from the same play type leads that FOGL have.

And if they both fail FOGL still have 12 Billion barrels potential in their own play types - with first drill at Loligo for a mere 4.7 Billion barrels........ ;)




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FOGL are presently funded for 2 drills, but they have to be specific.

They will drill Loligo (Tertiary Channel Play) first, and are funded to follow up with Nimrod (again Tertiary Channel Play).

However, they want to drill Scotia (Mid-Cretaceous Fan Play) but the cost of drilling Scotia is a lot more than Nimrod, and so they need to farm down if they want the second drill to be Scotia. No need to farm down if they drill Nimrod second.

But in reality based on the excellent reservoir sands encountered in the Mid-Cretaceous Fan at Toroa it has made Scotia the number 2 drill target, but FOGL need a dollop of extra cash/farm down to do this.

Therefore the farm out deal will likely include a portion of Scotia and a portion of Loligo IMO.

What FOGL will want to end up with is enough cash / free carry to drill Loligo and then Scotia and then either Nimrod/Vinson or Inflexible/Endeavour IMO.


At the end of the farm out FOGL will likely be in the position to commit to 3 firm drills via their cash/free carry position.

Off to a nice start today :)

Once you look at all the facts after a period of reflection the result of coal at Toroa was not a surprise really. It was shallow and basin edge, and that is how coal is made.

For a quick easy to see "how is coal and how is oil made" - see the link below :

http://www.hk-phy.org/energy/power/source_phy/flash/formation_e.html


Now, looking at the location of Toroa, well, it makes sense.




But Toroa did throw up some exciting news and that was the Springhill sands were ok for reservoir BUT the mid-cretaceous sands were very good quality reservoir sands.

This is good news for the Scotia prospect, which should be drilled after Loligo.

Loligo is a giant with as much potential recoverable oil as say Shaikan for GKP on a P50 basis given recovery rates.

But Scotia is now derisked somewhat in terms of whether the mid-cretaceous sands will be viable for reservoir, it now seems they are excellent for reservoir.




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Should be back at the prior 70p placing level in the coming weeks, before the big move upwards on farm out news and also BOR getting nearer and nearer to spud.

Well...the "Foilkies" are doing well at the mo....

Yes , RKH is zooming up this morning , wouldn't like to be out of those

Good oilies to be in RKH, BOR, FOGL...and perhaps ARG...not sure about DES...

Nice day yesterday for FOGL, up again.

Unsurprisingly ARG is not going to drill, its not a surprise as their targets ended up being small when the 3D seismic revealed all.

Not long before everyone sells RKH and DES and piles into BOR and FOGL.

Going to be exciting times ahead for FOGL.

Up to 4.7 billion recoverable barrels on the first drill.......... life changing potential :)

No oil has been found at all in the SFB apart from a big coal field...pro is a ramper so dont be fooled by him.

Fogl dont even have enough money to drill the second prospect at this time ,they havent even a COS on the prospects they will drill it could be only 10%.very very risky

imo, DES hasn't got much better prospects, but at least it abutts the known field of sealion, whereas FOGL merely abutts an awful lot of nasty south atlantic!

marky

Even you must admit that the Des performance has been shambolic from beginning to end. PP may have an angle but then we all do. Personally I like Borders because their board seems to have the sort of professional quality lacking in Des, but more akin to RHK. The rig will be on its way quite soon and I am with PP that those with a penchant for high risk explorations will pile in to FOGL and BOR. I hold BOR in preference to FOGL as I think RAB will be looking to offload and that overhang might hold back the FOGL's share price.

Better performance from RKH 261p today , Pro changed horse's before the race had finished.

Still not interested Pro ?

Having sold out of RKH at 300p - its still below where I sold, and on top of that the sold money has made more money in the meantime - so if RKH were to get up to 400p then it would make my decision to sell them at 300p a poor one.

But they have not - so I am very relaxed :)

And yes, still not interested. This is the last drill, then there is big fund raising.

Look what happened to XEL from being 400p on the last drill - then stopping drilling - then boredom and fund raising - and everyone sells bit by bit, and down to 100p they go.

An oil price rally just as FOGL begin drilling would be very nice :)

http://moneymorning.com/2011/12/15/2012-oil-price-outlook-how-to-profit-from-150-oil/

2012 Oil Price Outlook: How to Profit From $150 Oil
December 15, 2011

By Jason Simpkins, Managing Editor, Money Morning

2011 was an up-and-down year for oil prices, but don't expect that pattern to repeat in 2012. No, next year, the trajectory for oil prices will be far more linear - and it's pointed up.

In fact, we could even see $150 oil by mid-summer.

There are two key reasons why:

Despite the economic crisis in Europe, oil demand proved resilient in 2011. It is poised to remain steady in 2012, and then escalate drastically for the foreseeable future.

Supplies will once again be constrained, and the potential for political upheaval in major oil-producing nations has increased.

These are the principal reasons oil prices have surged about 30% since dipping below $80 a barrel in early October. They're also why the world's upper-echelon of energy forecasters has oil prices building a floor above $90 a barrel and rising from there.


Indeed, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) recently recommended that traders buy July 2012 Brent crude futures in anticipation of a rally to $120 a barrel. It was one of the bank's top six trades for 2012 published in its "Global Economics Weekly" report.

Barclays Capital agrees. "Even in the worst case scenario, the.....................

what a stupid article everybody knows the vampire squid is a big speculator in oil futures.

BOR spud should be late Jan, or first week of Feb - depending on sailing conditions for the rig, time from Greenland to South Falklands was expected to be circa 60 days.

BOR's 2 wells should take 90 days, which means FOGL spudding end May or early June one would hope.