I don't believe that the mentioned "African Gold Zimbabwe" is AFG, but the article does demonstrate rapid resurgence of E&P in Zimbabwe:

Mining Giants Plan Massive Diamond Prospecting

The Herald (Harare)

January 22, 2004
Posted to the web January 22, 2004

Harare

MINING giants, De Beers Zimbabwe Prospecting Limited and Circle Three Mining Corporation are proposing a massive diamond prospecting project that will see the two companies prospecting for the mineral in Gweru, Harare, Bulawayo and Kadoma mining districts.

The two mining companies intend to prospect for diamond in areas covering a total of 448 180 hectares.


Another company, African Gold Zimbabwe, has also undertaken to prospect for gold on two areas measuring 120 550 hectares within the Harare and Gweru mining districts.

De Beers Zimbabwe Prospecting Limited, Circle Three Mining Corporation and African Gold Zimbabwe have applied to the Mining Affairs Board for an exclusive prospecting order for 12 areas under the four mining districts.

In the latest issue of the Government gazette, the Mining Affairs Board said De Beers, Circle Three Mining and African Gold Zimbabwe intend to prospect for diamonds and gold over an area of approximately 568 730 hectares from the three areas.

"The applicants intend to prospect for diamond within the areas, which have been reserved against prospecting pending determination of this application.

"Prospecting authority is sought upon registered base mineral blocks within the reservation," read part of the notice.

One of the two diamond prospecting projects to be undertaken by Circle Three Mining measures 65 000 hectares and is bounded by a line commencing on the Zimbabwe-Zambia border approximating five kilometres.

All areas, which have been earmarked for prospecting are within the 15 000 hectares and 65 000 hectares range and are mostly in the traditional mineral bearing areas of the country.

The proposal to prospect for diamond in the country comes at a time when the US$41 million Murowa Diamond Mine has started to operate following the successful relocation of 141 families which were on the mining site.

Mining is one of the sectors which has been depressed over the last five years but some of the players in the industry have said investors should look at non-traditional minerals.

An example that is often given is that of platinum, which is fast becoming the world's most lucrative mineral.

The mining of diamond in Zimbabwe is also fast gaining pace and it is expected that some of the mining projects would create a lot of employment.

Relevant Links

Southern Africa
Mining
Zimbabwe

BUSINESS NEWS
Gold touches $412 month high
Justin Brown
Posted Thu, 18 Mar 2004

Spot gold on Thursday touched a month high, due to increasing security concerns following bombings in Spain and Iraq, as well as expectations that the US dollar could weaken further, especially against the yen.

At 5.20pm, gold was quoted at $411.70 a troy ounce, up $4.32/oz from Wednesday's New York close of $407.38/oz. Earlier in the afternoon gold touched a month high of $412.40/oz.

"Gold is up, like silver, on good investor buying. Gold is also up on increased security concerns, following the bombings in Madrid and Iraq. There are expectations that there will be a more broad based weakening of the dollar, following the news that Japan won't intervene as much in the foreign exchange market," said London-based Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi.

Short-term Naqvi sees gold targeting $418/oz to $420/oz.

At 5.20pm, the euro was quoted at $1.2353 up $0.0116 from late trade in New York of $1.2237, while the yen last traded at 106.64 to the dollar, 1.61 yen firmer than late trade in New York of 108.25 on Wednesday.

The yen is currently trading at month highs.

"After the profit taking seen in late January and February, there are strong indications that speculators have begun to rebuild their long positions in gold," London-based UBS analyst John Reade said in a note on Thursday.

There has also been a reasonable increase in Asian physical demand for gold, due to seasonal demand out of India, which has been boosted by a good Monsoon, Reade added.

UBS is forecasting a higher dollar gold price with a one-month target of $420/oz and if the dollar does weaken sufficiently then a year-end target of $480/oz.

I-Net Bridge

There was a 250,000 buy today at 9.37 pence earlier on.

BUYS = 1,209,226 vs SELLS = 567,484 including trades reported after close.

Big return of buyers today with better volume closing at 1,841,710.

Buys outweighing Sells by more than 2:1.

Interest setting in again and with news on the horizon the share price is going to go very far north.

Make a change from going south!

Good news and should help confidence all round....breaking news from Sky

AL QAEDA TARGET TRAPPED



Osama bin Laden's second in command has been surrounded in Pakistan, officials have said.

Troops say they have cornered Ayman al-Zawahri in an operation near the Afghan border.

The operation, involving hundreds of troops and paramilitary rangers, has been carried out in the South Waziristan region.

The identity of the man surrounded has not been confirmed.

But President Pervez Musharraf said: "(Judging by) the resistance that is being offered by the people there, we feel that there may be a high value target."

Sky News' Foreign Affairs Editor Tim Marshall said: "Most people believe the number two is actually the brains (behind the al Qaeda network)."

And he added: "If it's true it is an enormous strike. It cannot be underestimated."

On Tuesday at least 41 people, including 15 soldiers and 26 suspected militants were killed in fighting in the area.

Army spokesman General Shaukat Sultan said there had been an unknown number of casualties in continuing action Thursday.

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-1127982,00.html

The "surprise inside" awaiting the bears

By Clif Droke
March 17, 2004

www.clifdroke.com

(A positive for gold stock investors?)

There is a potent "surprise inside" the broad market awaiting the bears like a trap in the forest. Once this trap springs shut it will produce the bears worst nightmare in the form of a massive short-covering rally. It could also produce a nice rally in the gold stocks, particularly among those listed on the NASDAQ.

What am I referring to? The "surprise inside" awaiting the bears when they start growling too loudly is the phenomenally high level of short interest on the QQQ. Right now it reads something like 60%, which is undoubtedly an all-time high reading. Do you realize what that means? That means the majority of all shares outstanding in the "Cubes" (which track the NASDAQ 100 index) are sold short. This high reading, in and of itself, is a major support undergirding this market and will also be the catalyst for a huge short covering rally in the not-too-distant future. I fail to see how this market can outright collapse in the face of such astronomical short interest. I also would be very surprised if this market didnt get an extraordinary short-covering rally in the near future based on this high reading. This should also have the effect of boosting the recently-depressed gold stocks, particularly on the NASDAQ.

To take one example, there is a well-known gold stock listed on the NASDAQ which currently has a short interest of over 11%! Thats pretty high for a gold stock, especially given where we are in the overall gold stock cycle (i.e., still early in the cycle). This could easily result in a nice-sized rally off the recent lows in this stock, especially once that tech sector short interest kicks in.

Speaking of the tech sector, some would undoubtedly find it strange that the XAU in recent months has actually been somewhat of a leading indicator for the NASDAQ itself. Strange? Not really, especially when you consider what is driving this market right now, which is inflation from the past two years financial stimulus efforts of the Fed. In an inflation-driven market the sectors that are closest to real wealth will always lead the pack. This is now the time for the natural resource sector to shine.



As for the recent stock market decline, it was mainly a function of the terrorist scare in Spain on Thursday. If you look back at the Dows recent history youll see that a few days before a major terrorist episode hits, the market will have a 3-5 day plunge before reversing after the event is over and has been completely discounted. Usually thereafter the previous losses are retraced and the market continues its upward path.

Last week was the anniversary date of the 2003 major stock market low. Does this have any significance right now? Of course it does, especially since the famed trader and market technician W.D. Gann put such a big emphasis on the concept of anniversary dates in the market. A breakdown below the 1-year uptrend line in the Dow this week would have been an extremely bearish signal for this market, but by holding up and reversing above the 1-year uptrend (and 30-week moving average) the Dow keeps its uptrend intact and passes its first major test of the trend in terms of time.

Assuming the market finds support near its recent lows and turns around this week we should finally get a taste of that "surprise inside" that the bears will find so distasteful, yet gold bulls and stock bulls should enjoy.




***

Clif Droke is the editor of the Bear Market Report newsletter, a 3-times weekly forecast and analysis of stocks, markets, gold stocks, and equity cycles. He is also the author of numerous books on finance and investing, including the top-selling "Moving Averages Simplified." Visit his web site for free samples of his analysis at www.clifdroke.com

Asia

Gold Futures Rise to One-Month High as Dollar Falls Against Yen
March 18 (Bloomberg) -- Gold futures in New York rose to a one-month high as the dollar fell against the euro and yen, boosting the appeal of precious metals that hold their value better than stocks and bonds priced in U.S. dollars. Silver also rose, extending a rally to a six-year high.

The four-day rally in gold is its longest this year, mirroring the dollar's drop this week against the yen. Pierre Lassonde, president of Newmont Mining Corp., the world's largest gold producer, said last month that gold would rally as Asian currencies rise against the dollar, catching up with the two-year drop in the dollar against the euro.

``The next step is for gold to ignore currencies and go up even when the dollar is stable or going up because it would be a sign that gold has truly become a substitute currency,'' said Jean-Marie Eveillard, manager of the New York-based First Eagle Gold Fund, with $525 million in gold investments, including $55 million in gold bars. ``Instead of cash under the mattress, people will have gold there.''

Gold for April delivery rose $4.40, or 1.1 percent, to $411.50 an ounce at 10:48 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, after earlier touching $412.70, the highest price for a most-active contract since Feb. 18. The four- day rally is the longest since the end of December.

Gold has climbed 22 percent in the past year, reaching a 15- year high of $431.50 on Jan. 6.

The lowest U.S. interest rates in more than 45 years contributed to a 14 percent decline in the dollar against the euro during the past year and a 10 percent drop against the yen. Some investors buy gold as a hedge against declines in the dollar against other currencies.

Currency Link

Gold has tended to rise when the euro gains against the dollar since mid-September. The correlation between daily moves in the metal and the euro is 0.887. The figure can be between 0, showing no relationship between the two, and 1, indicating they move in lockstep.

Hedge funds and other large speculators bought 60,539 more gold futures than they had sold as of March 9, up 38 percent from a week earlier and the first increase since Feb. 17, a weekly report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index, which tracks 12 mining companies such as Newmont, Barrick Gold Corp. and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., had its biggest gain in almost six weeks. The index rose 3.28 to 102.32, the biggest gain since Feb. 6.

Shares of Denver-based Newmont rose $4.20, or 1.8 percent to $44.87 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. New Orleans- based Freeport rose $1.42, or 3.4 percent, to $42.80.

Silver for May delivery rose 13 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $7.39 an ounce on the Comex. A close at that price would be the highest since reaching $7.50 in February 1998, when Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. disclosed he had acquired 130 million ounces of silver, or about a quarter of global production at the time.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Claudia Carpenter in New York at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor of this story:
Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: March 18, 2004 11:12 EST

HI sue, you talked about tips.com I have tried to find the website, could you please give me the full web address. thanks.

http://https://www.t1ps.com/default.asp

Thanks sue

We need to see very positive drilling and the gold if found has to be economically viable. then the shares will take off. The price will not move up greatly even when the last land tenement is announced. As drilling and pre-feasability reports takes time, the shares are more like a dedium to long term investment. Just in time when the US elections take place and when the USD may start gaining ground agains XUA. Sue, would be good to state the fundamentals here cos the momentum and specualtion has faded.

Something good happening very soon.

Price closing at 9.0-10.5 pence, up 12.0% today. Very heavy big buying reported in the afternoon. All of them appeared in the sell column.

Gold futures rise over 4% for the week
Silver caps trading with fresh rally; shares up 2% on week

By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:46 PM ET March 19, 2004

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures closed higher Friday, logging a five-session winning streak and ending the week with a gain of more than 4 percent.

Ongoing concerns over inflation and terrorism, as well as expectations for continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, sparked the rally in the precious metal.

Gold for April delivery closed at $412.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.40 on the session. The contract closed higher every day this week, tacking on a total of $17.10.

April gold saw a brief pullback during Friday's session to touch the $409 mark, but it turned higher and managed to end at a fresh, one-month high.

"It would take a mighty bold bear to go out on a limb and short this gold market," said Kevin Kerr, editor of newsletter Kwest Market Edge. "It could be a very costly and painful conviction to live by."

Gold has been soaring, playing in part off inflation fears that seemed to be confirmed by a higher-than-expected reading on U.S. inflation at the wholesale level, he said.

The nation's producer prices rose 0.6 percent in January as energy prices jumped 4.7 percent, the Labor Department said on Thursday. See Economic Report.

"The real question is: Did economists really expect that number to be lower or was that just wishful thinking?" said Kerr.

"Energy prices are a big driver, but commodities prices in general have been blasting off," he said. "The picture is getting even darker on the inflation front as everything from copper to cocoa is on a surge."

Dollar debate

The dollar, back on the defensive, has repeatedly been used as the reason for gold's latest move higher. Market participants don't expect that excuse to be worn out soon.

The bruised greenback got at least a short-term break on Friday, rising from one-month yen lows as intervention speculation continued to dominate foreign-exchange trading. See Currencies Report.

"The Japanese are spending hand over fist, $190 billion in yen in 2003 and another $95 billion in yen in the first two months of this year, intervening in order to prop up the dollar," said Kerr. "Now they are having second thoughts and pulling back."

"This spells trouble for the dollar, and more weakness may be the push gold prices need to breach my critical $425 level," he said.

Silver, copper end higher

Also on Nymex, May silver rose 9.8 cents to close at $7.563 per ounce after a $7.72 intraday high, while May copper rose 0.7 cent to end at $1.378 per pound.

For the week, silver futures rose 7 percent and copper futures advanced 5 percent.

Silver prices haven't traded at levels above $7.50 since 1988, according to Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com.

"Fundamentally, silver is difficult to assess because as much as 75 percent of silver production is a byproduct of mining gold, copper, lead and zinc," he said.

But "technically, silver futures prices broke above a 16-year downtrend last year, signaling the end of two rough decades for silver producers," he said. "Silver has found new life, thanks to increased Asian demand and the weak U.S. dollar."

And as long as the Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate low, "silver prices should continue to work higher," he said.

Meanwhile, the copper market is being "driven by technical buyers as skittish shorts hold back," said Grady Garrett, chief trading strategist at EnergyTrendAlert.com, a commodity information provider. "Copper is also picking up some support from the general bull markets we are seeing all around the commodity trading world," he said.

On the supply end, copper supplies were down 1,532 short tons at 226,640 short tons as of late Thursday, according to Nymex. Silver stocks were down 13,563 troy ounces at 122.2 million troy ounces.

Gold inventories stood at 3.57 million troy ounces, down 5,829 troy ounces from the previous session.

In other metals trading, June palladium fell $1.95 an ounce to $280. The April contract for sister metal platinum fell to $892.50 an ounce, down $6.20.

Mining indexes end mixed

Metals mining shares closed on a mixed note Friday after rising over the prior three sessions.

Looking ahead, however, "inflation-fearing investors will be ... quick to seek the greener pastures of the gold and mining stock markets," said Brien Lundin, editor of investment publication Gold Newsletter.

Tracking the sector as a whole, Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index ($XAU: news, chart, profile) closed at 101.43, up 0.3 percent for the session, while the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, chart, profile) fell less than 0.1 percent to close at 228.52. The two indexes are up nearly 3 percent from their week-ago close.

The CBOE Gold Index ($GOX: news, chart, profile) declined 0.2 percent to close at 86.86 -- up 2.1 percent for the week.

Leading the declines in the sector, shares of Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM: news, chart, profile) lost 57 cents, or 3.9 percent, to end at $14.06.

Late Thursday, the Canadian miner said the staff of the Ontario Securities Commission is mulling whether it should start proceedings against the company and some members of management. The proceedings would be related to the "timing and content" of Agnico-Eagle's disclosure following a rock fall at the LaRonde mine in Quebec in early 2003.

Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.

There was sudden burst in buying volume after lunchtime. Lines of 100K buys going through. IMHO, this is an excellent sign that more good news is coming very soon and the rises should continue with another rise expected on Monday.
The price has crossed the ten day moving average which will provide a further boost.

MACD signals are turning and we should soon see the blue line above the green line which will be very positive.

Some investors go for the gold
IHT Saturday, March 20, 2004
World of Investing

One of my heroes is the late Julian Simon, an economist at the University of Maryland, who challenged the conventional wisdom that the world was getting overpopulated and would soon run out of food and other critical resources.
.
The best evidence of increasing demand and diminishing supply is, of course, higher prices. So, to prove his point, Simon in 1980 made a famous bet with Paul Ehrlich, who had been predicting catastrophic shortages.
.
Ehrlich, a biologist at Stanford University, could pick any five metals he liked. If the inflation-adjusted price of the metals in 1990 was higher than in 1980, then Ehrlich would win. Each of the metals - copper, chrome, nickel, tin and tungsten - fell in price, by an average of about 40 percent.
.
"Simon's central point," wrote the columnist Ben Wattenberg in 1998, "was that natural resources are not finite in any serious way; they are created by the intellect of man, an always renewable resource."
.
In other words, human intelligence, with the right economic incentives, can find ways to get more oil out of the ground or substitute plastic for metal or use less copper, or none at all, to transmit telecommunications signals.
.
Partly because of Simon's influence, I have always been reluctant to buy stocks in the natural-resource, precious-metals or materials sectors. My motto is: "Don't invest in things. Invest in brains."
.
Yet there is one reason to invest in things that I can recommend without reservation. Things - or commodities, as they are also known - have very little correlation with stocks or bonds.
.
A recent brochure from Morgan Stanley made the point in a compelling way. The investment bank charted the performance of six asset classes - Nasdaq stocks, European stocks, large-capitalization U.S. stocks, corporate bonds, Treasury bills and managed futures - from 1980 to 2002. None of the six "has consistently outperformed all other types of investments," Morgan Stanley wrote.
.
The brochure was designed to persuade investors to spread their investments over several Morgan Stanley funds, to smooth out market cycles and "achieve greater returns."
.
I don't know about the latter, but I do know that by spreading your assets across several categories that don't move up and down together, you'll moderate the ups and downs of your portfolio's value.
.
Right now, there is a separate case for investing in commodities: They're going up in price. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has doubled since the end of 1999, and the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index has risen about three-quarters since mid-2001.
.
There are three reasons for these increases.
.
First, the dollar has fallen lately, which means that it requires more dollars to buy a commodity with constant value. Second, supplies have been tight because businesses cut back on expansion during a worldwide recession and are still reluctant to invest heavily in getting things out of the ground or turning them into products.
.
Finally, demand is rising, especially as China booms, gathering raw materials from around the globe to feed its people and its industries.
.
China, as Charles Allmon writes in his well-respected Growth Stock Outlook newsletter, "consumes more copper than any other nation, and they're growing as a formidable oil guzzler."
.
In the long term, according to Allmon, "China's demands on raw material and commodities could change the price equation drastically."
.
There are a number of ways to invest in commodities, depending on your net worth and your stomach for risk.
.
Managed futures look like mutual funds: pools of commodity futures overseen by managers who buy and sell contracts. They are typically limited partnerships with restrictions on who can invest - you need a high, or at least midlevel, net worth - and on when you can take your money out.
.
Managed futures are sold through brokerage firms, and the commissions are high - 4 percent a year is not unusual. Initial investments can be lofty, and, because trading is often frenetic, you can run up big tax liabilities in a good year. Be sure you understand what you are getting into.
.
Commodities futures contracts,which are promises to buy or sell a certain amount of stuff on a specific date - say, 1,000 barrels of light sweet crude oil in June 2005 - are an extremely risky business. Investors typically use tremendous leverage, putting up small amounts of cash to "control" large positions. If you have a "long" position and prices rise, you can make a lot of money in a short time; but if prices fall, you can get wiped out - and then some. This is an investment where you can lose more than you put up. Your liability is unlimited, and nine of 10 commodity speculators (let's not call them investors) lose money. My advice: Stay away.
.
Mutual funds exist that specialize not in commodities themselves but in companies that profit from the extraction and production of them. One of the best-known is T. Rowe Price New Era. For the 10 years through Feb. 29, New Era returned an annual average of 11 percent, or about four-tenths of a percentage point less than the S&P 500.
.
More important, however, its correlation to the stock market has been very, very loose - which is what you want in a portfolio. In 2000, when the S&P fell 9 percent, New Era rose 20 percent; in 1997, when the S&P rose 33 percent, New Era rose just 11 percent. Currently, 60 percent of its assets are in oil and gas stocks, including large holdings in Devon Energy, an Oklahoma-based exploration and production company, and Total, the integrated French oil giant.
.
New Era's second-largest holding, after Devon, is Newmont Mining, which has reserves of gold totaling 87 million ounces. Newmont also produces silver, copper and zinc. Precious metals like gold and silver are considered good stand-ins for commodities as a whole, and investors see them as a store of value in dangerous times. While you can buy the real thing in bars and coins, the paper version is more convenient.
.
One of the best precious-metals mutual funds is First Eagle Gold, co-managed by the talented Jean-Marie Eveillard and rated five-star by Morningstar, has more than tripled over the past three years, but its long-term record is more modest: an average of 7 percent a year since 1994.
.
Vanguard Precious Metals may be a wiser choice, with no load and annual expenses of only 0.6 percent. Although it has lagged First Eagle lately, the fund has returned an annual average of 22 percent over the past five years and 5 percent over the past 10. Top holdings include Cia. Minas de Buenaventura, a Peruvian company with shares that trade on the NYSE, and Placer Dome, based in Canada.
.
In the end, I still believe in betting on brains. But in an era of stock volatility, terrorism, a falling dollar and a rising China, it is not unreasonable to make at least a small side bet on things.
.
James K. Glassman's e-mail address is jglassman@aei.org.

< < Back to Start of Article World of Investing

One of my heroes is the late Julian Simon, an economist at the University of Maryland, who challenged the conventional wisdom that the world was getting overpopulated and would soon run out of food and other critical resources.
.
The best evidence of increasing demand and diminishing supply is, of course, higher prices. So, to prove his point, Simon in 1980 made a famous bet with Paul Ehrlich, who had been predicting catastrophic shortages.
.
Ehrlich, a biologist at Stanford University, could pick any five metals he liked. If the inflation-adjusted price of the metals in 1990 was higher than in 1980, then Ehrlich would win. Each of the metals - copper, chrome, nickel, tin and tungsten - fell in price, by an average of about 40 percent.
.
"Simon's central point," wrote the columnist Ben Wattenberg in 1998, "was that natural resources are not finite in any serious way; they are created by the intellect of man, an always renewable resource."
.
In other words, human intelligence, with the right economic incentives, can find ways to get more oil out of the ground or substitute plastic for metal or use less copper, or none at all, to transmit telecommunications signals.
.
Partly because of Simon's influence, I have always been reluctant to buy stocks in the natural-resource, precious-metals or materials sectors. My motto is: "Don't invest in things. Invest in brains."
.
Yet there is one reason to invest in things that I can recommend without reservation. Things - or commodities, as they are also known - have very little correlation with stocks or bonds.
.
A recent brochure from Morgan Stanley made the point in a compelling way. The investment bank charted the performance of six asset classes - Nasdaq stocks, European stocks, large-capitalization U.S. stocks, corporate bonds, Treasury bills and managed futures - from 1980 to 2002. None of the six "has consistently outperformed all other types of investments," Morgan Stanley wrote.
.
The brochure was designed to persuade investors to spread their investments over several Morgan Stanley funds, to smooth out market cycles and "achieve greater returns."
.
I don't know about the latter, but I do know that by spreading your assets across several categories that don't move up and down together, you'll moderate the ups and downs of your portfolio's value.
.
Right now, there is a separate case for investing in commodities: They're going up in price. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has doubled since the end of 1999, and the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index has risen about three-quarters since mid-2001.
.
There are three reasons for these increases.
.
First, the dollar has fallen lately, which means that it requires more dollars to buy a commodity with constant value. Second, supplies have been tight because businesses cut back on expansion during a worldwide recession and are still reluctant to invest heavily in getting things out of the ground or turning them into products.
.
Finally, demand is rising, especially as China booms, gathering raw materials from around the globe to feed its people and its industries.
.
China, as Charles Allmon writes in his well-respected Growth Stock Outlook newsletter, "consumes more copper than any other nation, and they're growing as a formidable oil guzzler."
.
In the long term, according to Allmon, "China's demands on raw material and commodities could change the price equation drastically."
.
There are a number of ways to invest in commodities, depending on your net worth and your stomach for risk.
.
Managed futures look like mutual funds: pools of commodity futures overseen by managers who buy and sell contracts. They are typically limited partnerships with restrictions on who can invest - you need a high, or at least midlevel, net worth - and on when you can take your money out.
.
Managed futures are sold through brokerage firms, and the commissions are high - 4 percent a year is not unusual. Initial investments can be lofty, and, because trading is often frenetic, you can run up big tax liabilities in a good year. Be sure you understand what you are getting into.
.
Commodities futures contracts,which are promises to buy or sell a certain amount of stuff on a specific date - say, 1,000 barrels of light sweet crude oil in June 2005 - are an extremely risky business. Investors typically use tremendous leverage, putting up small amounts of cash to "control" large positions. If you have a "long" position and prices rise, you can make a lot of money in a short time; but if prices fall, you can get wiped out - and then some. This is an investment where you can lose more than you put up. Your liability is unlimited, and nine of 10 commodity speculators (let's not call them investors) lose money. My advice: Stay away.
.
Mutual funds exist that specialize not in commodities themselves but in companies that profit from the extraction and production of them. One of the best-known is T. Rowe Price New Era. For the 10 years through Feb. 29, New Era returned an annual average of 11 percent, or about four-tenths of a percentage point less than the S&P 500.
.
More important, however, its correlation to the stock market has been very, very loose - which is what you want in a portfolio. In 2000, when the S&P fell 9 percent, New Era rose 20 percent; in 1997, when the S&P rose 33 percent, New Era rose just 11 percent. Currently, 60 percent of its assets are in oil and gas stocks, including large holdings in Devon Energy, an Oklahoma-based exploration and production company, and Total, the integrated French oil giant.
.
New Era's second-largest holding, after Devon, is Newmont Mining, which has reserves of gold totaling 87 million ounces. Newmont also produces silver, copper and zinc. Precious metals like gold and silver are considered good stand-ins for commodities as a whole, and investors see them as a store of value in dangerous times. While you can buy the real thing in bars and coins, the paper version is more convenient.
.
One of the best precious-metals mutual funds is First Eagle Gold, co-managed by the talented Jean-Marie Eveillard and rated five-star by Morningstar, has more than tripled over the past three years, but its long-term record is more modest: an average of 7 percent a year since 1994.
.
Vanguard Precious Metals may be a wiser choice, with no load and annual expenses of only 0.6 percent. Although it has lagged First Eagle lately, the fund has returned an annual average of 22 percent over the past five years and 5 percent over the past 10. Top holdings include Cia. Minas de Buenaventura, a Peruvian company with shares that trade on the NYSE, and Placer Dome, based in Canada.
.
In the end, I still believe in betting on brains. But in an era of stock volatility, terrorism, a falling dollar and a rising China, it is not unreasonable to make at least a small side bet on things.
.
James K. Glassman's e-mail address is jglassman@aei.org. World of Investing

One of my heroes is the late Julian Simon, an economist at the University of Maryland, who challenged the conventional wisdom that the world was getting overpopulated and would soon run out of food and other critical resources.
.
The best evidence of increasing demand and diminishing supply is, of course, higher prices. So, to prove his point, Simon in 1980 made a famous bet with Paul Ehrlich, who had been predicting catastrophic shortages.
.
Ehrlich, a biologist at Stanford University, could pick any five metals he liked. If the inflation-adjusted price of the metals in 1990 was higher than in 1980, then Ehrlich would win. Each of the metals - copper, chrome, nickel, tin and tungsten - fell in price, by an average of about 40 percent.
.
"Simon's central point," wrote the columnist Ben Wattenberg in 1998, "was that natural resources are not finite in any serious way; they are created by the intellect of man, an always renewable resource."
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In other words, human intelligence, with the right economic incentives, can find ways to get more oil out of the ground or substitute plastic for metal or use less copper, or none at all, to transmit telecommunications signals.
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Partly because of Simon's influence, I have always been reluctant to buy stocks in the natural-resource, precious-metals or materials sectors. My motto is: "Don't invest in things. Invest in brains."
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Yet there is one reason to invest in things that I can recommend without reservation. Things - or commodities, as they are also known - have very little correlation with stocks or bonds.
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A recent brochure from Morgan Stanley made the point in a compelling way. The investment bank charted the performance of six asset classes - Nasdaq stocks, European stocks, large-capitalization U.S. stocks, corporate bonds, Treasury bills and managed futures - from 1980 to 2002. None of the six "has consistently outperformed all other types of investments," Morgan Stanley wrote.
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The brochure was designed to persuade investors to spread their investments over several Morgan Stanley funds, to smooth out market cycles and "achieve greater returns."
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I don't know about the latter, but I do know that by spreading your assets across several categories that don't move up and down together, you'll moderate the ups and downs of your portfolio's value.
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Right now, there is a separate case for investing in commodities: They're going up in price. The Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has doubled since the end of 1999, and the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index has risen about three-quarters since mid-2001.
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There are three reasons for these increases.
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First, the dollar has fallen lately, which means that it requires more dollars to buy a commodity with constant value. Second, supplies have been tight because businesses cut back on expansion during a worldwide recession and are still reluctant to invest heavily in getting things out of the ground or turning them into products.
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Finally, demand is rising, especially as China booms, gathering raw materials from around the globe to feed its people and its industries.
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China, as Charles Allmon writes in his well-respected Growth Stock Outlook newsletter, "consumes more copper than any other nation, and they're growing as a formidable oil guzzler."
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In the long term, according to Allmon, "China's demands on raw material and commodities could change the price equation drastically."
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There are a number of ways to invest in commodities, depending on your net worth and your stomach for risk.
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Managed futures look like mutual funds: pools of commodity futures overseen by managers who buy and sell contracts. They are typically limited partnerships with restrictions on who can invest - you need a high, or at least midlevel, net worth - and on when you can take your money out.
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Managed futures are sold through brokerage firms, and the commissions are high - 4 percent a year is not unusual. Initial investments can be lofty, and, because trading is often frenetic, you can run up big tax liabilities in a good year. Be sure you understand what you are getting into.
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Commodities futures contracts,which are promises to buy or sell a certain amount of stuff on a specific date - say, 1,000 barrels of light sweet crude oil in June 2005 - are an extremely risky business. Investors typically use tremendous leverage, putting up small amounts of cash to "control" large positions. If you have a "long" position and prices rise, you can make a lot of money in a short time; but if prices fall, you can get wiped out - and then some. This is an investment where you can lose more than you put up. Your liability is unlimited, and nine of 10 commodity speculators (let's not call them investors) lose money. My advice: Stay away.
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Mutual funds exist that specialize not in commodities themselves but in companies that profit from the extraction and production of them. One of the best-known is T. Rowe Price New Era. For the 10 years through Feb. 29, New Era returned an annual average of 11 percent, or about four-tenths of a percentage point less than the S&P 500.
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More important, however, its correlation to the stock market has been very, very loose - which is what you want in a portfolio. In 2000, when the S&P fell 9 percent, New Era rose 20 percent; in 1997, when the S&P rose 33 percent, New Era rose just 11 percent. Currently, 60 percent of its assets are in oil and gas stocks, including large holdings in Devon Energy, an Oklahoma-based exploration and production company, and Total, the integrated French oil giant.
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New Era's second-largest holding, after Devon, is Newmont Mining, which has reserves of gold totaling 87 million ounces. Newmont also produces silver, copper and zinc. Precious metals like gold and silver are considered good stand-ins for commodities as a whole, and investors see them as a store of value in dangerous times. While you can buy the real thing in bars and coins, the paper version is more convenient.
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One of the best precious-metals mutual funds is First Eagle Gold, co-managed by the talented Jean-Marie Eveillard and rated five-star by Morningstar, has more than tripled over the past three years, but its long-term record is more modest: an average of 7 percent a year since 1994.
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Vanguard Precious Metals may be a wiser choice, with no load and annual expenses of only 0.6 percent. Although it has lagged First Eagle lately, the fund has returned an annual average of 22 percent over the past five years and 5 percent over the past 10. Top holdings include Cia. Minas de Buenaventura, a Peruvian company with shares that trade on the NYSE, and Placer Dome, based in Canada.
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In the end, I still believe in betting on brains. But in an era of stock volatility, terrorism, a falling dollar and a rising China, it is not unreasonable to make at least a small side bet on things.
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James K. Glassman's e-mail address is jglassman@aei.org. World of Investing

One of my heroes is the late Julian Simon, an economist at the University of Maryland, who challenged the conventional wisdom that the world was getting overpopulated and would soon run out of food and other critical resources.
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The best evidence of increasing demand and diminishing supply is, of course, higher prices. So, to prove his point, Simon in 1980 made a famous bet with Paul Ehrlich, who had been predicting catastrophic shortages.
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Ehrlich, a biologist at Stanford University, could pick any five metals he liked. If the inflation-adjusted price of the metals in 1990 was higher than in 1980, then Ehrlich would win. Each of the metals - copper, chrome, nickel, tin and tungsten - fell in price, by an average of about 40 percent.
.
"Simon's central point," wrote the columnist Ben Wattenberg in 1998, "was that natural resources are not finite in any serious way; they are created by the intellect of man, an always renewable resource."
.
In other words, human intelligence, with the right economic incentives, can find ways to get more oil out of the ground or substitute plastic for metal or use less copper, or none at all, to transmit telecommunications signals.
.
Partly because of Simon's influence, I have always been reluctant to buy stocks in the natural-resource, precious-metals or materials sectors. My motto is: "Don't invest in things. Invest in brains."
.
Yet there is one reason to invest in things that I can recommend without reservation. Things - or commodities, as they are also known - have very little correlation with stocks or bonds.
.
A recent brochure from Morgan Stanley made the point in a compelling way. The investment bank charted the performance of six asset classes - Nasdaq stocks, European stocks, large-capitalization U.S. stocks, corporate bonds, Treasury bills and managed futures - from 1980 to 2002. None of the six "has consistently outperformed all other types of investments," Morgan Stanley wrote

Indicators are turning positive now, Investtech analysis tonight confirms this:

Neutral (Short term) - Mar 19, 2004
Has risen 425% since the bottom on 4 Nov 2003 at 1.75. Has broken the ceiling of the falling trend, which indicates a slower initial falling rate. The stock is approaching the support at p 8.00, which may give a positive reaction. High risk.

Upgraded from Negative candidate to Neutral.

Neutral (Medium term) - Mar 19, 2004
Has risen 1369% since the bottom on 7 Apr 2003 at 0.63. Has broken through the floor of a rising trend channel. This indicates a slower rising rate at first, or the start of a more horizontal development. The stock has support at p 2.00 and resistance at p 15.00. High risk.

Positive Candidate (Long term) - Mar 19, 2004
Has risen 1369% since the bottom on 7 Apr 2003 at 0.63. Has broken the floor of the rising trend, which indicates a weaker initial rising rate. The stock has support at p 3.00. High risk.

Upgraded from Neutral to Positive.