New Projects and good prospects. will be the winner in 2004. IMO
25p in early 2004

A snippet from Davy's daily note;

Petroceltic (PCI LN)
Previous close: 15.5p
Tunisia drilling contract signed
job.langbroek@davy.ie
Petroceltic has signed a contract to drill the Sidi Toui well in southern Tunisia. The rig is currently operating for OMV and is
expected to move to Petroceltic in the coming weeks. A September start to the well is expected. The well will be relatively
shallow, at around 3,000 ft., and should be finished by the end of October.
Petroceltic has a net 95% share of the licence in which the Sidi Toui well is located. The target has already been drilled and
encountered oil in a fractured Ordovician quartzite. The target could contain up to 400m barrels of oil.
We believe that there is a good chance that Petroceltic's well will encounter oil. The unknown factor at this stage is the
extent to which the fractured reservoir will deliver the oil to surface.
The key issue remains oil. Every 1% point change in the oil price effects EPS by 0.8c.

Also from Dolmen brokers daily note - mostly a rehash;

Todays Recommendations
Petroceltic (15.5p) Drilling rig contract Stuart Draper
Drilling contract : Petroceltic has announced a drilling contract
with the Great Wall Drilling Co., to provide the rig for
next months drilling of the Sidi Toui 3 Well in southern Tunisia.
The Great Wall Drilling Co. is an affiliate of the Chinese
National Petroleum Company, and provides land-drilling services
to multinational oil companies in over 16 countries.
Second rig : The contract is for one well with a second well
option which can be exercised during the drilling of the first
well. The first rig, GW 92, is expected to mobilise to the Sidi
Toui 3 location over the next few weeks, once it has finished
its current drilling for the Austrian oil and gas company, OMV.
Preparation commenced : Drilling operations and site preparation
have already commenced at Sidi Toui under the supervision
of Norwell Ltd., a major Aberdeen based drilling project
management and well control company.
Massive prospect : The Sidi Toui prospect has the potential to
contain over 400m barrels of recoverable light crude oil within
a large fault block structure. Petroceltic has also identified a
second major prospect close to Sidi Toui, called Oryx, which
may be drilled by the end of this year.
Further upside : Petroceltic was recently awarded the Isarene
Permit, covering over 10,000 square kms in the prolific Illizi
Basin of southern Algeria. The permit contains existing reserves
of 380 billion cubic feet of gas, as well as possible reserves
of more than 4 trillion cubic feet of gas and of more
than 400 million barrels of oil. Being less than 100 kilometres
from a major operating gas infrastructure will enable these
reserves to be commercialised at a relatively low cost.
Cash position : Crucially for equity investors, Petroceltic has
no near term funding risk and has cash reserves of c.$15m. In
addition, the company has a small royalty interest in the
Celtic Sea which generates net cashflow of 0.25m per annum.
Sector outperformer : While any potential risk adjusted valuation
for Petroceltic is still very subjective, the projects are
lower risk than many oil and gas exploration projects. Given
the current buoyancy of peer valuations in the sector and the
companys strong cash position, with a current market cap of
c.$35m, we would continue to rate Petroceltic as a sector outperformer.
Petroceltics share price has now risen by 229%
since our BUY note of 23/01/04 : Speculative BUY.

Some recent news articles this week, Ireland On Line:

Petroceltic signs drilling contract for Tunisian well
19/08/2004 - 11:02:22

Petroceltic has signed a contract with Great Wall Drilling Company (Tunisia) to provide the GW 92 land drilling rig for Petroceltic's forthcoming Sidi Toui 3 Well in the Ksar Hadada Permit Area in southern Tunisia.

The contract is for one well with a second well option which can be exercised during the drilling of the first well.

The Great Wall rig G W 92 is working in Tunisia for the Austrian oil and gas company OMV. This work is expected to finish over the next few weeks after which the rig will mobilise to the Sidi Toui 3 location to commence drilling for Petroceltic.

Brian Cusack. Chairman of Petroceltic commented: "I am delighted that Petroceltic has secured the services of Great Wall and Norwell for our Sidi Toui 3 well. They have both earned an excellent reputation internationally for the provision of drilling services and we are all eagerly looking forward to this next phase of the company's development."

Petroceltic has a 100% working (95% net) interest in the 7,500 square kilometres Ksar Hadada Contract Area in Southern Tunisia through a Production Sharing Agreement with ETAP the Tunisian state oil company.

RTE Business:

Petroceltic in deal with Great Wall Drilling

August 19, 2004 11:16
Petroceltic has signed a contract with the Great Wall Drilling Company to provide the land drilling rig for the company's Sidi Toui 3 Well in the Ksar Hadada permit area in southern Tunisia. The contract is for one well with a second well option.

Drilling operations and site preparation have started for Sidi Toui under the supervision of Norwell, a major Scottish based drilling project management and well control company.

The Great Wall Rig is currently working in Tunisia for the Austrian oil and gas company OMV. This work is expected to finish over the next few weeks.


Petroceltic has a 100% working interest in the Ksar Hadada area in a deal with Tunisian state oil company, ETAP. One of the site's prospects, Sidi Toui, has the potential to host over 400 million barrels of recoverable oil. Another similar prospect, Oryx, has also been identified in the southern part of the site.

Great Wall Drilling Company, an affiliate of the Chinese National Petroleum Company, owns over 100 rigs and provides land drilling services in over 16 countries worldwide.

Business World:

Petroceltic wins Tunisian drill contract
Thursday, August 19 10:44:28

(BizWorld)

Petroceltic International today said it has signed a contract to drill for oil and gas in Tunisia.

The Irish registered exploration firm said it had signed a contract with Great Wall Drilling Co (Tunisia) for the GW 92 land drilling rig for its Sidi Toui 3 Well in the Ksar Hadada Permit Area in southern Tunisia.
In a statement, the company said the contract is for one well with a second well option, which can be exercised during the drilling of the first well. The Great Wall rig GW 92 is currently working in Tunisia for the Austrian oil and gas company OMV.


This work is expected to finish over the next few weeks after which the rig will relocate to the Sidi Toui 3 location to commence drilling for Petroceltic.

Petroceltic has a 100pc working, or a 95pc net interest in the 7,500 square kilometres Ksar Hadada Contract Area through a production sharing agreement with ETAP, the Tunisian state oil company.

Shares in Petroceltic gained 0.25p on the London exchange this morning to 14.75.

The Guardian:

Irish oil exploration group Petroceltic International gushed 1p to 15.5p as it announced plans to drill in Luke Skywalker's back garden. Petroceltic, which also has prospects offshore Ireland and Italy, has signed up Great Wall Drilling Co to drill on its land in Tunisia at a cost believed to be under $3m.

The site is close to the location used in the Star Wars films as the young jedi's home planet.

Traders believe that the drilling programme - which is for one well with the option of a second - could take just a matter of weeks and the potential represented by the site in southern Tunisia is very significant.

many thanks for the info.

They didn't hold 16p for long - falling again. I expect a drift back to 14p until drilling start.

Still time to get them on the cheap, but don't go mad, they're not the Bank of England!

you're probably right.....but all this is very temporary........history will be in the making...........it's just a matter of time.

From Oil Barrel.com this morning:

25.08.2004
Petroceltic Prepares To Spud The Eagerly Anticipated Sidi Toui-3 Well
Petroceltic is gearing up to spud its eagerly anticipated first well on its 7,500 sq km tranche of acreage in southern Tunisia. The company has contracted a land rig from the Great Wall Drilling Co, a subsidiary of Chinese state oil firm CNPC, for the Sidi Toui-3 well in the Ksar Hadada permit with an option to drill a second well. The rig, currently working for OMV elsewhere in Tunisia, is expected to mobilise to the Sidi Toui-3 location in the next few weeks. The well site is being prepared by Aberdeens Norwell Limited, on behalf of Petroceltic.

Petroceltic owns 100 per cent of the Ksar Hadada permit, which appears to hold a number of substantial prospects, most notably the Sidi Toui structure, which could hold over 400 million barrels of recoverable oil within a large fault block structure. A well drilled on the flank of the structure in the 1950s encountered oil and gas in a fractured Ordovician quartzite sequence.

Petroceltic has carefully selected the location of Sidi Toui-3 well to be up dip on the same structure so as to optimally test the oil potential of this prospect, the company said in a statement.

A similar prospect, Oryx, has been identified in the southern part of the permit and is now under final technical assessment for drilling in the near future.

The drilling of Sidi Toui-3 will be a key milestone in the former mining companys transition to international E&P player.

We are all eagerly looking forward to this next phase of the company's development," said Petroceltic chairman Brian Cusack.

The company ended its first year as an oil and gas company with a pre-tax profit of US$1.38 million, reversing the 2002 loss of US$0.66 million. Over the course of 2003, the company, which enjoys a revenue stream from a royalty interest in the Kinsale gas field in the Celtic Sea, built up its finances, raising US$3.9 million from the sale of its stake in Faroe Petroleum and the Shaimerden zinc deposit in Kazakhstan and the issuing of shares for cash. 2004 saw further funds raised through a share and warrants placing, providing a cash store from which the company has built an exciting portfolio of E&P prospects in Tunisia, Italy and offshore Ireland, most recently adding a tranche of gas-prone acreage in southern Algeria to the inventory.

2003 was a transformation year for us, Cusack told oilbarrel.com at the time of the 2003 financial results.

Given the prospectivity of the Tunisian lands and the new acreage in Algeria, 2004 could also prove to be something of a transformation for the Irish firm

Went long again yesterday.

Big Al - You must have done well trading this one, lots of up's and downs! I prefer to buy and hold, no good at calling the top or bottom.

gavdfc - only just started playing with it. Can be a bit tricky, but only considering longs given surrounding news. Doing OK, but keeping it fairly small.

More news, From Oilvoice.com:

Petroceltic Set to Begin Onshore Drilling Program in Tunisia
26 August 2004
Petroceltic is preparing to spud its eagerly anticipated first well on its 7,500 sq km tranche of acreage in southern Tunisia. The company has contracted a land rig from the Great Wall Drilling Co, a subsidiary of Chinese state oil firm CNPC, for the Sidi Toui-3 well in the Ksar Hadada permit with an option to drill a second well. The rig, currently working for OMV in Tunisia, is expected to mobilise to the Sidi Toui-3 location in the next few weeks. Aberdeens Norwell Limited, on behalf of Petroceltic, is preparing the well site.
Petroceltic owns 100% of the Ksar Hadada permit, which appears to hold a number of substantial prospects, most notably the Sidi Toui structure, which could hold over 400 million barrels of recoverable oil within a large fault block structure. A well drilled on the flank of the structure in the 1950s encountered oil and gas in a fractured Ordovician quartzite sequence.
A similar prospect, Oryx, has been identified in the southern part of the permit and is now under final technical assessment for drilling in the near future. The drilling of Sidi Toui-3 will be a key milestone in the former mining companys transition to international E&P player.
The company ended its first year as an oil and gas company with a pre-tax profit of US$1.38 million, reversing the 2002 loss of US$0.66 million. Over the course of 2003, the company, which enjoys a revenue stream from a royalty interest in the Kinsale gas field in the Celtic Sea, built up its finances, raising US$3.9 million from the sale of its stake in Faroe Petroleum and the Shaimerden zinc deposit in Kazakhstan and the issuing of shares for cash.
2004 saw further funds raised through a share and warrants placing, providing a cash store from which the company has built an exciting portfolio of E&P prospects in Tunisia, Italy and offshore Ireland, most recently adding a tranche of gas-prone acreage in southern Algeria to the inventory. Given the prospectivity of the Tunisian lands and the new acreage in Algeria, 2004 could also prove to be something of a transformation for the Irish company.

oil prices peaked......lol..............pull the other one....so all the fundamentals for the price rising have suddenly disappeared.......what a strange world we live in!!!!!

rooandu

I see this as nothing more than a pullback to uptrend support for oil prices at present and it can come back a few more bucks yet without breaking it.

thanks big al.

so is this morning start of an upward trend again? even with oil barrel price reduction to normal, its still high, when pci hit oil, should this not gain about 5p? c levelling at 23-25p a fair price?

no.....upward movement to mid 20's prior to drilling results.....if PCI strike oil.........then expect the price to rocket.....as to how much, that very much depends on how much is found along with all the other news that is expected from PCI's other activities over coming months i.e. Eire, Algeria, Italy..............and nodoubt, lots, lots more .......realistcally....can see PCI pushing towards the 1 mark by end of year (at the very least) by as they say.....no one really knows......and dyor......(you'll be impressed!!!!!!)

Rooandu

Hope you are right about a pre-drilling price of the mid 20's. There seems to be some kind of resistance at 18 to 19p at the moment. The odds on a strike? Perhaps 1 in 3 of commercial oil or worse, but no one really knows. But all is not lost if they hit sand this time round, there are other prospects, but then they might need more money.

I am still hoping to sell a chunk at a higher price to cut the risk of a big loss if they fall. At the moment a rise seems certain from the present position in the next few weeks, unless there is another 9/11 situation when they might crash with all the rest. Did I say certain? What's certain except death and taxes.

My position - just about got my whole pot riding on this one. It's S***t or bust time.

cinapete........1 in 3????........lets be more optimistic, 50:50 or even better!but as we say.......no one really knows........ we have to be realistic too so always good to have a back up plan..............life and success is certain for those seeking it...........

It's all out of our hands but I'm confident all will be on our side........and we shall be rewarded.................only time will tell :-)

fyi

best leave my cash in there then to make a modest profit?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3606406.stm

Oil prices cease five-day slide
Oil prices inched up on Friday, after five straight days of falls from the record highs hit a week ago.

The slide had seen the cost of a barrel of oil on the Nymex futures exchange in New York drop 13% from $49.40, an all-time high.

But concerns about global demand and supplies from Iraq in the wake of fresh sabotage saw a slim rise of 8 cents to $43.18 a barrel.

London's Brent crude also rose from its three-week low, gaining 0.8% to $40.64.

The question is now whether Friday's firming of energy prices is a pit-stop on the way down, or marks a return to the seemingly relentless rises seen over the past few months.

Renewed speculative interest has been blamed for a proportion of the recent surge in prices, with some estimates suggesting it has added $5-$10 to the cost of a barrel of oil.

Certainly the unwinding of "long" positions - bets by investors on continued price gains - contributed to the $6 fall and ensured that the $50 barrier was not breached.

But after two nights of sabotage near Basra and Baghdad, supplies from Iraq are 500,000 barrels down on the 2 million a day seen earlier this week.

Demand remains at 24-year highs as well, fed by both the US and the fast-growing Chinese economy.

Found this tonight in the International Herald Tribune, it's a few days old. It's about the Carmignac Gestion fund. The following is a snippet of the article.

"Oil will remain expensive, more than $35" a barrel, Carmignac said. A year ago, "oil wasn't in vogue. Now we're benefiting."
.
The Euro-Investissement fund has made a 140 percent return on the purchase of its biggest and best-performing holding, the Irish oil exploration company Petroceltic International.
.
The company has a stock market value of 71.5 million, or $128.5 million, which is less than 1 percent of the oil giant BP.
.
Simon Pickard, who manages the funds at Carmignac Gestion, said he liked Petroceltic because of its prospects in North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Irish Sea. The shares have nearly quadrupled this year.

Cheers

Gav