http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Kurdistan Regional Government

An ocean of reserves waiting to be tapped

By Guy Chazan, the Financial Times

Richard Lowe faces a dilemma most oilmen can only dream about: what on earth is he to do with 14 billion barrels of crude?

Mr Lowe’s company, a small London-listed explorer called Gulf Keystone, found the oil in question in Shaikan, in Iraqi Kurdistan, in 2009. It was one of the world’s largest onshore discoveries in more than 20 years.

Stretching for miles under a ridge of brown, rugged hills near the Turkish border, Shaikan is huge. Yet its sheer size is problematic. “The big question is – where do you start?” says Mr Lowe, Gulf Keystone’s drilling manager. “The field is almost too big.”

Oil finds such as Shaikan have made Kurdistan, an autonomous region in the north of Iraq, one of the biggest draws in the global oil industry. It has attracted $10bn in investment from foreign oil companies – a vast amount for a country of only 4.9m people.

“It is almost the only place in the Middle East where the private sector can explore virgin territory,” says Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP who runs the Kurdistan-focused oil explorer Genel Energy.
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The full post

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&it=le&action=detail&id=10583963

sp starting to rock along and on heavy volume too ...... no announcements and prob nothing to get excited about, but worth watching

Is now on the move UP WITH SPIKE after the profit taking of yesterday 150p +5

From yesterday.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/update-on-move-to-official-list-of-the-lse/201305290700077372F/

And todays,

0 May 2013



Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)

("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")



Commercial Discovery in Ber Bahr-1 Exploration Well



Gulf Keystone notes today's announcement by Genel Energy plc ("Genel Energy"), regarding a commercial oil discovery at the Ber Bahr-1 exploration well on the Ber Bahr block in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Genel Energy, as operator, made the following statement:



"The Ber Bahr 1 well original TD was 3933m in the upper Permian Chia Zairi formation. It encountered good oil shows over a c.300m interval in the Jurassic. Two drill stem tests over this interval failed to flow. The original well has now been successfully side tracked and in several tests, conducted over a period of days, achieved a sustainable flow rate of 2100 STB/day of 15 API oil from the Middle Jurassic age Sargelu Formation."



The operator has also stated their intention to begin a phased development of the field in the second half of this year.



Gulf Keystone and Genel Energy both hold a 40 per cent working interest in the Ber Bahr block. The Kurdistan Regional Government has a 20 per cent carried interest in the Ber Bahr Production Sharing Contract.



John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer, commented:



"This is another significant discovery and the fifth across the four blocks the Company has an interest in. It comes during an exciting year for the Company as we move towards becoming a significant producer in

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/commercial-discovery---ber-bahr-1-exploration-well/201305300705028504F/

From WHI:-

Gulf Keystone~ (GKP) – Buy
Market Cap £1.2bn Price 152p Target 315p

- Genel Energy (N/R) who operate the Ber Bahr-1 exploration well (40% stake) have announced a successful side track well achieving a commercial flow rate of 2,100bpd (of good quality 15 API in the Middle Jurassic age Sargelu formation.

- Gulf Keystone own 40% of this exploration well, where we have a value of 6p/26p (risked/unrisked) value to our total NAV of 315p. We view this announcement combined with yesterday’s announcement of the company’s intention to seek a main market listing which will require a splitting of Chairman and CEO roles (under listing rules) as positive for the stock which has underperformed significantly.

- We believe a resolution of the outstanding legal case in the commercial court in London in June will mark the end of a significant impasse for the company and lead to a significant re-rating. The company’s confidence that it is seeking a listing on the main market underlines our belief that this impasse will be overcome successfully. Operationally and financially the company is well positioned, and we therefore maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of 315p

Nevertheless, the broker above said: "Market implying 75% chance of judgement against GKP" so it's a bit of a lottery which way this goes.

Hi harry,so the SP has a egative result built in? If it goes against GKP,i believe an initial dip might happen,if however the judgement is positive then the reverse would be the case.
But the true value of a company which has the largest structure in the world(outside of the Super majors,ref; oilbarrel), is the key to where this company will go?imho

Yes, that was written in early may when the sp was about 130p, so assuming a 25% hit if the judgement goes against, sp would just nudge under 100p. At the moment I prefer to trade GKP rather than hold long term, so these kinds of details matter, but of course you are correct, imo, that the long term prospects are potentially very good.

Just came across this,interesting.


From iii - greedandfear

Firstly, I wonder how many people will shoot me down this time, with more of my "generic insight"?
Anyway, I will post this to provide more information to the sensible masses out there.

At the recent IRaq Energy conference in Abu Dhabi, there were some interesting attendees, including Dr Mohammad Al-Gailani - a Director from GeoDesign Ltd. One of his previous clients just happened to be GKP and he did make reference to the find at Shaikan being 10 billion plus. he admitted that he was erring on the conservative with that value.

Also in attendance were employees of Iraq State Oil Company and interestingly, it appears that the Iraq government has signed some oil contracts with companies based in Kurdistan. They would not confirm who they were with...but nonetheless I thought that it was interesting that they were doing business with companies based in the region. So, maybe there is a route for the oil through Iraq.

Reference was also made to the amount of oil reserves in Iraq / Kurdistan). The scientists in attendance were referencing 300 - 400 billion (not proven) and one guy [a geologist] even implied that the true number is probably somewhere significantly north of this point. I will not quote the value as I will look like a ramper.

With all the political noise from south, it would appear that Kirkuk (1 million barrels per day potential) would like to join the Kurdistan bandwagon. No doubt it would not be allowed by Baghdad but it appears that the success of the Kurds is attracting attention from elsewhere.

I could post lots more but some of it is commercially sensitive.

From Fox Davis

BUY--350p

Management’s disclosure that Ber Bahr is commercial (30th May 2013) is a significant step
forwards, but what isn’t clear from this announcement is the size of the reserves, what the
development will look like, i.e. how many wells will it need, what infrastructure will be required
(in addition to what is already planned for Shaikan and Sheik Adi) and more importantly,
whether the payback period will be; not all profitable barrels are equal.
While there is infrastructure planned in this part of the world, and Ber Bahr’s development
could be dovetailed in with that of Shaikan and Sheik Adi, there could also be a scenario where
the Company elects to dispose of its interest in Ber Bahr, completely or partially, in order to
fund its share of costs for Shaikan’s and Sheik Adi’s development.
Nevertheless, this is a positive update, and one that supports our existing 350p Target Price,
which we are maintaining until we get further details on Ber Bahr.
We are also reiterating our BUY Recommendation.

Its now all about the credibility of GKP's management.

A lot of noise aroud the BB's concernibg the CC,Simon Fisher is the PI who attended all the sessions, is a good source and genuine.

Simon Fisher ‏@simonfishybits 3h
@TraderjohnBaker Judge Clarke is back in his office on Monday

--------------------------------------------------------------

Direct from @simonfishybits:
Judgement has been with CC & MC since last Friday

To reply, type 'DM @simonfishybits [your message]'

Yes harry, the choice and appointment of the new Chairman is of greatest importence. Looks like it's all coming together,interesting times( aybe exciting)ahead?

Perhaps why it's worth consideringg GKP,with CC judgement in the near future,a much clearer picture should appear? Early July( 4 weeks)a pre-pensentation(AGM) is ue,which i believe is in London?
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Thanks to pathai
http://www.oneiraqidinar.com/is-iraq-capable-of-becoming-the-largest-oil-producer-in-the-world/

une 2/13

In recent times Euan Mearns has written of the potential for oil production in the Kurdish region in the north. In total this is estimated to hold around 4 billion barrels of oil, or around 17% of the national reserve. However, as exploration of the potential fields in Kurdistan continues, this estimate has been increased by the local government to a possible 45 billion barrels. Euan, for example, wrote about the development of the Shaikan oil field and the potential size of between 8 and 13.4 billion barrels that it showed in January 2012. Current plans are for production to reach 40,000 bpd “soon”, with production ramping up to 400,000 bpd. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) see it playing a considerable role in achieving their target of 400 kbd this year, 1 mbd by 2015, and 2 mbd by 2019. The field is being developed by Gulf Keystone Petroleum.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/03/us-iraq-kurds-idUSBRE9520GZ20130603

Goldman Sachs take.


GKP
Source of opportunity
Recent performance of Gulf Keystone shares has been poor (-15% vs. our larger E&Ps ytd). We believe that this
has, in part, been driven by concerns over the outcome of the Excalibur court case (in which Excalibur is
claiming a stake in the Gulf Keystone assets in Kurdistan), but believe that the stock is now pricing in too
negative an outcome. We believe that the progress that has been made in bringing Kurdistan exports to fruition
is not being recognized in the share price. We currently assume a 25% chance of Gulf Keystone losing the case
at a cost of US$1.6 bn and see significant upside despite this approach. We regard Kurdistan as a highly
attractive source of low cost growth in the oil complex, with breakevens below US$30/bl and believe that further
progress towards exports should help crystallize this value. Given the low breakevens and large scale of the
assets, we believe that these assets will be attractive to larger oil companies, struggling to find growth at current
oil prices. Our backtesting of strategic assets from our Top 380 database suggests such asset transactions take
place at discount rates of 8%; 50% of our target price is based on a valuation of Gulf Keystone using this 5% cost
of capital. Of the names under our coverage with exposure to Kurdistan, Gulf Keystone is the most inexpensive
on our estimates; the Shaikan asset offers significant scale and potential for production growth. We have
revisited our model for Shaikan: we now assume higher costs for light oil as a result of the sulphur content and
assume that heavy oil is developed before light. We also adjust our assumptions on the recoverable split
between heavy and light oil (we assume heavy oil makes up c.75% of the total vs. 70% previously).
Catalyst
We believe that independent export infrastructure linking Kurdistan and Turkey should be in place by end 2013 /
early 2014 and that commencement of exports and payment should lead to a de-risking of assets by the equity
market and increasing speculation around high-value M&A in the region. Asset sales by peers or sales of
peripheral assets by GKP (such as the Akri Bijeel block) should result in a boost to the share price as should
imminent commencement of production at Shaikan (expected mid-2013). A resolution of the court case that
does not involve a significant cash payment should also be a significant positive catalyst in our view.
Valuation
Our 12-month SOTP-based target price is 258p (from 292p) and is calculated using an oil price of US$100/bl.
Discoveries and exploration assets are valued using a risked NPV/bbl approach. We assume a 50% M&A
weighting in which strategic assets (i.e. Shaikan) are valued using an 8% cost of capital.
Key risks
The key short-term risk is a worse than expected resolution to the court case. Deterioration in the political
environment in Kurdistan or poor flow rates from production facilities at Shaikan would also be negative.

Re: Malcolm Graham-Wood tweet
c/o Matty Miller iii

Gulf Keystone Petroleum- Part One

I visited Gulf Keystone last week and will issue a fuller report in the next few days, however it is worth noting a few points that became obvious either in extended viewing of the facilities, primarily in Shaikan or in conversation with senior management. I was accompanied by COO John Gerstenlauer and also had a number of conversations with Chairman and CEO Todd Kozel as well as other members of the GKP team who were in Erbil including the CFO Ewen Ainsworth. I was the only member of the financial community present and thus was fortunate to have access to the top management team all week as well as local politicians and senior officials who we met during the process.

The overriding view of GKP remains the significant upside waiting to be crystallised as and when either the market place, or maybe more likely an industry competitor, appreciate the huge potential of the prospect being accumulated in Kurdistan. With the KRG targeting 1m b/d by 2015 and 2m b/d by 2019, any chance of those forecasts being achievable must depend on a number of key projects and companies, in this case GKP in general and Shaikan in particular.

I visited all the wells in the region from the first to the most recent and also, maybe more importantly the two production facilities being built at the moment. Production facility 1 is virtually ready to go, some final electrical and cabling work and within weeks PF-1 will be able to produce 20,000 b/d and maybe more. PF-2 is a massive facility and should be ready to produce in early autumn and has larger storage tanks capable of taking 50,000 barrels each, although these facilities are designed at present for tanker distribution a tie-in to nearby pipeline facilities is the eventual goal. With another 20,000 target at PF-2 and opportunities with de-bottlenecking to expand to 60,000 – 75,000 of production from Shaikan and possibly Sheikh Adi as well longer term. After these are completed two more production facilities and maybe a central hub will take the company’s targets to as high as 150,000 b/d which is in the Shaikan field development plan currently waiting for approval.

A lot depends on FDP approval as well as the opportunity to sell in country and to potentially export, but the will is there and the oil ministry seem keen not to disappoint the large number of companies that have arrived in Kurdistan of late.



At this stage it is worth noting that the Genel Energy operated Ber Bahr-1 was announced as a commercial discovery whilst I was in the country and they will begin a phased development of the field in the second half of this year.



There are one or two potential reasons for the shares to hold back at the moment, the market is a touch optimistic about timings, for the completion of the production facilities and Shaikan wells 7 and 10 are a little behind mainly due to bad weather and at number 10 the need to build a new road to the site. At 7 the rig is a bigger one that ever used here in an attempt to reach the Permian successfully, at 10 the first real production well is going to be shallower.

There is also the court case which has finished but still awaiting a verdict, a loss would be bad for GKP but even that would still be bearable given the huge discount the shares trade at, a win would surely release the hand brake for the shares and pave the way for the premium listing expected to come in H1 2014.As this should be accompanied by a new CPR, the prospects at that stage would indeed look good.

Dougie has a target price of 475p for GKP and this is, in my view extremely realistic, if not in the longer term conservative which is why I have selected the 2 year chart in this case

via Simon Fisher...

http://pipelinesinternational.com/news/taq_taq_to_khurmala_pipeline_complete/081718/


Excellent news!

"
The Taq Taq to Khurmala Pipeline, which was constructed by local company KAR, forms part of a larger infrastructure plan by the Kurdistan Regional Government, which is planning to construct a 1 MMbbl capacity oil pipeline to export oil from the Kurdistan region to the Turkish border. The first phase of this project is to connect Taq Taq to the Erbil refinery and the existing Kirkuk to Ceyhan export infrastructure. The second phase of this project is to link the oil fields in the Kurdistan region directly to Fishkabur on the Turkish border.

The plan aims to reduce the bottleneck on oil supplies via the previous export method. Previously oil was trucked approximately 135 km to Khurmala or 255 km to Fishkabur, where it was metered and pumped into the Kirkuk to Ceyhan Pipeline.

Genel Energy has now begun construction on the second phase from Khurmala to the Fishkabur pump station on the border with Turkey. The pump station will have an initial capacity of 300,000 bbl/d.

The second phase is expected to be in operation by 2014.
"

4 WEEKS TOMOROW.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/investor-day---4-july-2013/201306050700153063G/

it would have been an interesting agm to attend and easy to get at too ..... unfortunately (hahaha!) i shall be on jolly hols in provence - hope it'll be hotter than long range forecasts indicate