I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

lol.

130p low.

I notice that EMG has been, as informed, gradually executing it's buy-back program of shares, so at some point, when the markets pick up, these should see a pretty healthy bounce.
On a slightly different topic, there is a lengthy article in this week's Shares Mag about AHL fund and algorithmic trading, which puts our PI trading of equities + spread betting & CFD trading into a very basic category. I wonder if EMG is really a suitable stock to be traded by us mortals as the AHL way of trading is light years ahead of anything we can get to grips with.

10 day chart fall of 25p.

will fall to 70p imo.

Deutche Bank downgrade to Sell.

"Man Group plc announces that on 19 December 2011 it purchased for cancellation 2,315,000 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 124.5946 pence per ordinary share."

This has been going on for quite a few weeks now, so at some point the brokers will have to review their figures and maybe change their stance.

I think they should have waited a while longer Harry.

Difficult to judge.

I am waiting for 110p.

shorters paradise!!

right on gibby.

Freefall..

Bounce coming?

dead cat?

Dead duck more like.,.

Comment from Cazenove:
"The continued weakness of the Man Group share price raises inevitable questions as to whether the bottom has yet been reached, and whether after five years of underperformance relative to the sector the situation is about to reverse. The key in this respect remains, we believe, the direction of earnings estimates. Once again, however, we are reducing estimates to reflect weaker investment performance into the year end.
The operational gearing of earnings estimates to investment performance assumptions remains marked because of the influence of performance fees. Simply put, current NAVs suggest that the core AHL business is some 10% below high water marks, and given our assumption of 10% annualised returns from the product we are, once again, 12 months away from expecting material performance fees to be earned. Inevitably this situation can change quickly, the fillip in (Vuma) consensus earnings estimates at the time of the Q1 IMS last June comes to mind, but at this stage the prospect for performance fees in the 2012E financial year looks bleak.
The fact that we are now assuming negligible performance fees in the current year should suggest that our earnings estimates are now near a base. Unfortunately there remains the issue that – in common with our assumption set across the sector – we continue to assume positive fund investment returns for the year, and also that these fund returns will beget fund inflows in due course. As was seen so markedly in 2011, these are not sacrosanct assumptions, and our 2011E earnings have been revised lower to reflect the combined impacts of degearing at AHL, higher redemptions, lower gross sales and lower fund values. It is perhaps sobering to note that our 2011E year end AUM estimate for the group of $58bn is around three quarters of the level of AUM in March 2008, since when the company has acquired GLG, which itself brought some $20bn of AUM.
Marked impact on 2012E where our group EPS estimate falls to just 9c per share, from a prior estimate of 32c. Within this, our performance fee earnings estimate has fallen to 0.4c per share from 10.2c, but we have also reduced our management earnings estimate from 10.2c to 9.0c, a 12% reduction. We would note that this is despite the benefit of the share repurchase programme executed in the last two months of 2011 which saw the company repurchase 3% of its equity.
At this level of earnings, dividend cover again becomes a pertinent issue despite the dividend per share having been halved in the year to March 2011. The company has already indicated that it intends to pay a final dividend of 7 cents per share for the final quarter of the shortened financial period to December 2011, making a payment for the nine months of 16.5c. This is meant to represent three quarters of a pro rated maintained dividend of 22c, but assuming that this was the intended payment for 2012E, estimated earnings would cover less than half of the payment. Clearly on our assumptions, earnings would recover rapidly into 2013E, driven by performance fees, and would re-establish dividend cover of 1.2x. The management maintained the dividend in 2009 despite modest cover, and again in 2010 although the dividend was uncovered, before halving the payment in 2011. Obviously the result would almost certainly end up having to be a result of better performance from both sides, but in our view this maths does highlight the risk that consensus earnings estimates for 2012E still have further to fall."

..FTSE 100: Man Group retreats as large-caps recover

By Rachel Cooper | Telegraph – 2 hours 36 minutes ago



......
Man Group and fellow asset managers came under pressure on Friday as a clutch of analysts sounded a note of caution on the sector.

Shares in Man have come under pressure since the hedge fund manager revealed in September that clients had pulled out more than $2bn in funds over the summer amid "extreme" market volatility.

Writing on the sector, analysts at Credit Suisse (NYSEArca: CSMA - news) said that despite a recovery in equity market performance in late 2011, it remains cautious on the sustainability of the recovery given the lingering macro issues in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) , which has lead to subdued net fund flows.

"We remain particularly cautious on fund flows in Europe as banks which are major distributors of funds continue to focus on shoring up deposits, with Euro area deposits increasing by over 400 billion euros for 12 months ending Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) 11," it said.

RBC Capital Markets added its voice to the chorus of caution, cutting its rating on Man to “sector perform” from “outperform”.

Ahead of a trading update from Man on January 18, analysts said they were now taking “an even more pessimistic view of performance in the final quarter of 2011”. While Man continues to offer an attractive dividend yield, analysts added this was countered by challenges such as the potential for continuing market volatility that could hamper the hedge fund manager.

Man sank 10.3 to 112.7p

to find support watch for the next update this month.

Still heavy buy back program continuing, so at some point this should recover.

"Transaction in own shares

Man Group plc announces that on 11 January 2012 it purchased for cancellation 500,000 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 104.3684 pence per ordinary share.
Following this cancellation the total number of ordinary shares in issue will be 1,820,489,840. The Company does not hold any shares in Treasury."

Sub 100p tomorrow..?

Wednesday January 18

• Analysts have rounded on Man Group (LSE: EMG.L - news) over the past few months cutting their earning forecasts on the company and warning of a further outflow of funds in the three months to the end of December. Earlier this month, JP Morgan Cazenove, Credit Suisse (NYSEArca: CSMA - news) and RBC (MCX: RBCI.ME - news) all downgraded their estimates on the world's largest-listed hedge fund, which will be desperate to convince investors that it can withstand the current economic downturn.