http://www.fox-davies.com/media/325569/fdcrockhopperfeb112011.pdf
Rockhopper Exploration Flashnote 11th February 2011
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Comment
Well 14/10-3 was a bold outstep 8km to the north of the initial Sea Lion discovery well. As such we are not surprised if
initially at least, the drilling results seem to raise more questions than provide answers.
We take away that the reservoir section thins towards the northern source and while S3 seems to be in communication
with the main Sea Lion body to the south, S1 and S2 be must isolated from charge by internal seals.
The presence of a
good reservoir in S4, located on a deeper stratigraphic level than Sea Lion and sourced from a northernmost third entry
point, is an indication that other sand bodies, along the eastern edge of the basin, have also access to charge, even
though the extent of that trap might not be as significant.
Without further information we would assume that the P10-P90 range should narrow with P10 possibly decreasing;
however we are not necessarily assuming that P50 should change at this stage.
One thing to remember is that some
volume upside is almost guaranteed once the interpretation of the new 3D dataset covering the southern portion of the
Sea Lion lobe is available.
Hence we are not changing our forecasts and we see the negative share price reaction as a
buying opportunity.
Recommendation
We maintain our Buy rating with an unchanged 500p price target