http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

One thing that stands out is that there 3D seismic model must be bang on as they just scratched the end of sea lion, who know if we drilled half a mile in we might have all been jumping around.

http://en.mercopress.com/2011/02/12/unilateral-fact-ii

A little off subject but all about the history of the Falklands and why Argies havent got a leg to stand on.

Had to go to Lille for a couple of days & just got back to find that RKH had hit the rocks & RRL had rocketed! Win some, lose some.
Have read through the posts for the last few days to bring myself up to speed and one thing springs to mind immediately. Many posters are seeing what they want to see rather than the obvious (for which I am sure I have been guilty in the past). This may be the outer limit of the Sea Lion formation, but until it's proven, surely it's best to assume it's not? Apologies to all RKH holders who are sitting on a loss. I had ARG (@40p) as my play on this attempt as I considered the risk too high with RKH.

Surely Harry RKH are not high risk as they re underpinned by there oil find in Sea Lion which gives them a value of about 3 and have 200 million sitting in the bank which would roughly let them sink about 16 + drills if need be.

I think with the next drill been an appraisal drill on Sea Lion we might get an upgrade on reserves after the mistake on the guns not going off in the flow test so plenty of pluses on next drill and I would not be surprised instead of the rig going back to Desire that RKH keep it and carry on with more appraisal drilling which would give Desire and RKH more time on modelling the new 3D which I would think some of its been analysed as we speak.

Yes, as per my post #4190, I agree that fair value is somewhere near the 300p level. I did consider buying recently at 340p just for a punt on this particular drill, but glad I didn't in the end (which is the risk I was referring to).

This is the time to buy RKH.....crazy those who sold on friday.....it's obvious that the sp is going to climb...perhaps tomorrow morning a few nervous investors and those who have been forced out will sell, but the sp has to go up...it just has....it's now undervalued and in the event of good result with the next well an increase back to 500p could be on the cards.

RF what football team do you support?

258m shares @ 2.78 = company valued at 717,242,000.

We have 170m barrels. lets say 4 a barrel....that's worth 680,000,000

We have approx 200,000,000 in the bank.

So, on these calculations RKH are worth 880m.....or 3.41 a share.

well i did not think that rns was that bad and the market has misread this - i expect to be buying early monday and would expect a finish next week around 300 min. / spikes in between 320 at best

it should be remebered that this well was the first to be drilled in that area, 8 km to the north west of the Sea Lion discovery, and was in fact was encouraging, the results of the well are complex and will take some time to interpret fully - so it is not exactly known what is there or not as yet + the quality sands encountered confirm the understanding of the depositional system within the basin

potential is massive again: 'The company said: Further technical work is required to understand why the mini DST produced water while the standard MDT recovered 20 percent live oil from the same sand interval.

Rockhopper adds: pressure readings taken over Sand 3 indicate that it appears to be lying on the same oil pressure gradient as the main Sea Lion fan in well 14/10-2, indicating the potential for good lateral communication.

Further wells and technical work will be required to determine if this is the case.

must bounce monday!

just mass panic selling and auto sells triggered etc in light of des desaster imo

Just got in and having a little read up on iii and I dont think I can remember the thread been so bullish that RKH will bounce back tomorrow I know I have a lot of people on ignore list but its tick after tick on posts.

I hope it dose bounce as I hold many shares and bought a few on Friday as I thought they were cheap.


Roll on Monday, this next drill I would think will take less time depending if they do coring and how many, this next drill is RKH most important one.

Hi Markymar,

I agree that Rockhopper should jump back a fair few points today as I feel the sp was hit too much on Friday.
As to iii, I used to regularly follow RKH on iii although I tend to read only a few posts these days by those that I believe are very knowledgeable in the ways of the Oilies.
I stopped wading through the hundreds of posts per day (one day I think it was well over 500) and even take no notice of the 'ticks given' unless they are for those posts from the few that I know talk sense.
The RKH thread on iii is almost a waste of time wading through, as many posters are ticked up for absolute rubbish.
About a weeks ago were posts that contained nothing but around 50 smilies, another was a long yerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr, both these got over 20 ticks.
All you have to do to get a multitude of ticks is to post Buy Buy Buy repeatedly.

People who post such rubbish and those that tick up those posts do nothing but clog up the site, making it almost impossible to sort out the good content posts.

I have also noticed that a few of the best posters on iii have given up and stopped posting.

I appreciate we see the odd Muppet post on MoneyAm RKH but usually every post on here is easily worth double figures on iii.

As to the next drill being the important one, fully agree, as if that drill comes in with poor results then the sp will take an even bigger knock than it did on Friday. But if it comes in good, then the high of Septembers 5 will become history.

be busy here today - onwards & upwards - quote up means rise expected = shares needed by mms

Canaccord

Rockhopper Exploration plc (RKH : AIM): So close -- BUY, target 494p
Rockhopper Exploration plc

RKH : AIM : 278p | 717.0M | Buy, 494p

So close -- BUY, target 494p
Richard Slape, 44.20.7050.6643

Plenty of encouragement but not much oil

Rockhopper has announced the results of well 14/10-3 offshore the Falkland Islands. It encountered good quality reservoir at a depth from 2,425 metres to 2,535 metres in a sequence of four main sandstone intervals. Within these, 64 metres of gross reservoir sand was encountered with net sand of 54 metres.

Given that reservoir quality is regarded as a significant risk in the area, Rockhopper said it was pleased to have encountered a thick sequence of sand with average porosity of 18-20% and peaks of up to 25%. Unfortunately, samples from the first, second and fourth sands contained only water.

Samples recovered from the third sand contained approximately 20% live oil that appears to be of medium gravity. Furthermore, pressure readings taken from this interval indicate that it is lying on the same oil pressure gradient as the main Sea Lion fan in well 14/10-2. However, when Rockhopper performed a mini Drill Stem Test (DST) on this horizon, it produced only water into the well.

Only the upper end of the resources range should be affected

The result of 14/10-3 is disappointing but investors should not forget that it was an exploration well located 8 kilometres from the Sea Lion discovery. So, while it now seems unlikely that the upper end of the previous range of resource estimates (669 mmbbl on a P10 basis) for the field will be realised, we do not think this will have an adverse impact on earlier P50 resource estimates.

Disappointment creates a buying opportunity

Assuming it contains reserves 170 mmbbl, we estimate the Sea Lion oil field is worth equivalent of 402p per Rockhopper share when allied to an oil price of US$70/barrel flat real and a 12% discount rate. Adding an estimated 92p/share of net cash increases the total to 494p, which is our target.

We reiterate our BUY rating.

Oriel...brokers all up on this

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH, BUY, 277p) - Sea Lion appraisal drilling, some encouragement but not definitive

Rockhopper has announced the results of the first appraisal well (14/10-3) drilled on the Sea Lion oil discovery in the North Falklands

The well was a bold step-out drilled 8km to the north-west of the original well testing the northern lobe of the field and the P10 resource upside case of >600mmb

The well encountered good quality reservoir sands in 4 intervals with net sands of 54m (out of gross sands 64m)

Three of the four sands (1,2 and 4) were water bearing while one sand (3) had net oil pay of 7.3m, albeit with high water saturation cut-offs. MDT samples recovered live oil however a mini Drill Stem Test recovered water, the reason for which has yet to be determined.

The Lower Sand 4 appears to form the downdip lobe of the S2 fan. Oil staining in the cores gives some encouragement that the fan could be oil bearing updip

This result has been viewed negatively by the market, understandable given its complexity, but there is certainly significant encouragement from a number of factors

The fact that decent, thick reservoir sequences was encountered was a key pre-drill risk while it appears that the sands, particularly the oil bearing Sand 3, are in pressure communication with the original discovery well.

The results have limited the upside resource case in the field (P10 upside pre-drill seen as >600mmb) but has done nothing to impact the P50 potential of c170-240mmb centred on the southern part of the Sea Lion fan. The rig will now move to a location 2.3km to the north-west of the original discovery well, a lower risk appraisal location and one which will make or break the investment case in the shares in our view.

Our NAV stands at 491p/sh after taking account of the 14/10-3 well costs made up of cash of (c80p/sh) and Sea Lion resources of 240mmb risked at 66% (411p/sh)

We re-iterate our BUY recommendation. The company is fully funded for a multi-well appraisal and exploration programme this year around Sea Lion and we are looking to the next appraisal well to help de-risk the P50 resource case and our valuation

Taken a punt at 281p, it seems is due for the bounce back.
There is some help on the order book with stronger bid side

Back to 350p within a couple of weeks.....now have almost as many as before the original strike when they were 33p.....

marky, cielo good posts dudes - i'm also in this morning again!!! bouncing now!

Hi cielo,

I also topped up on Fri at 281p. Don't know if you are aware but due to the IT change at the LSE today, some orders are missing from the order book, meaning the bid/offer price is not quite accurate, IE on a couple of companies the mid price has been a tad more than the offers price. They hope to have rectified the problem soon.

Greek.

greekman

I am aware of the LSE problems are affecting the prices, my broker said that too when I placed my order, saying "I am not sure I will able to buy at this price due to the showing on my screen is not the price trading, he did eventually on a T+15 basis.

I had to give him some guidence from my Level 2 not money am, that has been very good from the start, I can not say the same for my monitor prices in different places

edison.....

Although a significant oil find would have been the optimal outcome from well 14/10-3, two out of three successful wells would be at the upper stretch of exploration odds. This aggressively located exploration well was testing the extent of the Sea Lion fan and located 8km from the Sea Lion discovery. We see some clear positives from the result: the well encountered good quality reservoir; hydrocarbons were present; and the sands were charged. Reservoir development looks encouraging in the northern lobe of the fan and potentially in the newly identified S2 feature. RKH will now focus on drilling a number of appraisal wells on the southern lobe of the Sea Lion feature. We do not believe this result has any impact on the P50 for Sea Lion. The work moves from exploration geology to development geology. The sharp fall in the share price presents an interesting opportunity ahead of the lower risk first appraisal well, located within the Sea Lion Discovery Area.

rkh are worth 4 to 5 on previous discovery alone - talk about looking a gift horse in the preverbials!!! bargain basement at the moment but bouncing nicely

commmmmmmmmmmmmmmmeeeeeeeeeee onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn lol!

Looking at chart Indicators, 2 points to take from them

Share price well below the lower Bollinger band ( buy signal )
And Slow Stochastick bouncing from oversold position ( Buy signal )