dreamcatcher
- 23 Jun 2012 12:28
- 4308 of 5221
Lets hope Range gets in gear before the 4th July, otherwise reading the boards PL
is not going to have a pleasant evening.
HARRYCAT
- 23 Jun 2012 13:24
- 4309 of 5221
SC, seems fine for stock trading, but be aware that Traders Own uses CMC for spread betting & CFD trades. Will be interesting to see what happens to their trading platform when things get really busy. Some of the smaller companies really struggle with very large volumes. Am very happy with Selftrade for the time being, but will keep my eye on TO.
dreamcatcher
- 23 Jun 2012 16:56
- 4310 of 5221
HC, that was a point I was concerned about, would they come under stress in busy periods ?
dreamcatcher
- 26 Jun 2012 15:45
- 4313 of 5221
Our revised target price of 28p per share (fully diluted) represents a reduction of only 2p compared to our
previous target price. Given that we have yet to ascribe a comprehensive risked valuation to Range’s exciting
new interests in Colombia, we believe that there is significant upside to our current estimate and we
recommend that investors buy the shares.
http://www.rangeresources.com.au/fileadmin/user_upload/Media_Releases/Range%20Orientated%2026.06.2012.pdf
dreamcatcher
- 28 Jun 2012 23:20
- 4314 of 5221
It would be a very good time now for Range to divide off Puntland into its own investment as the management have stated doing so. Looking at today RMP lifted 8%
driven on Puntland and Range struggled to stay level. It would be good for Range shareholders to see the kind of leverage RMP and Horn are seeing with the Puntland side of the investment. Range is going to I hope come good in the long term but in the short term if Puntland turns out well, will be left for dust with investors picking RMP over Range for the far better returns.
dreamcatcher
- 03 Jul 2012 18:32
- 4315 of 5221
RRL presentation tomorrow evening , lets hope for a good update.
3 monkies
- 04 Jul 2012 18:29
- 4317 of 5221
Hi DC,
Lets hope this is now going to go somewhere, it has been a pain in the butt of late as we all know. RMP doing good for you. Wonder what the update will be on this if any. Sick of dusting my empty picture frame haha!! Trust you are well. My old arthritic back is goosed -probably due to the wonderful wet climate I live in - rain, rain hail stones etc. chuffing great.
dreamcatcher
- 04 Jul 2012 19:08
- 4318 of 5221
Are you a new member 3m.lol only joking .
3 monkies
- 04 Jul 2012 19:43
- 4319 of 5221
A member of the old folks club - 64 now and have been for 1 week today. Need to make some cash now even if it is to pay for funeral hahahahaha!!!!!!!!!!
dreamcatcher
- 04 Jul 2012 19:46
- 4320 of 5221
lol. Presentation tonight, should get some answers to the poor sp of date. Happy birthday, bit belated :-))
pumben
- 05 Jul 2012 00:20
- 4323 of 5221
All depends if the presentation provides any new information not provided in his presentation in the Far East held before we received the T&T and Texas updates. If no new updates, the sp will stay low until we do get some new news.
Did anyone go to the presentation ?
Fingers crossed, it gives the SP a boost it's been a big of dog of late
dreamcatcher
- 05 Jul 2012 05:06
- 4324 of 5221
From ll, thanks to pearlexporter of his view of the presentation.
Author Pearlexporter
Date posted today 00:52
Subject Presentation - How I saw it.... )
Opinion Strong BUY
Votes for this Posting Voted 13 times.
Long post to follow I fear.... )
OK, just got home now after a very intriguing afternoon / evening at the presentation... It's always something that I ummm and ahhh about whether I should go or not to presentations and usually , like tonight, I am very happy to have gone and directly connected with the powers that run the company.
Well, let's start off with the Mark, Anthony and Pete (who all delivered the presentation, allbeit in different quantities). The collective body language at the start seemed a little nervous, whether this was genuine or if they were seeking to show a little humility considering the quantity of investors present and the current SP, I don't know. I sat in the front row and just before the off I could see PL trying to count the numbers of people, I think, due to the large rows, that the X14 table defeated him and he never worked out how many he was addressing.... )
TRINIDAD
Now, every clown on the RMP BB (even the ones not in attendance) will have you think that the Presentation was all about Puntland (of course this is in their interest to emphasise). However, in reality, the largest chunk of the presentation, the dodgy PR video and the Q+As that took place after was based upon Trinidad. In PL's own words his aim of the presentation was to give RRL holders a better 'technical understanding' of our producing assets.
So, in terms of our jewel (and in my eyes future pension plan) - Trinidad, we all know that we have a 16 / 16 success rate thus far with 5 results due. The tone of the '5 due' statement implied that they also have at least hit expectations and are waiting to be signed off.
Rig 8 is, annoyingly, waiting for a spare part, but then is due to spud a 6500 well later this month. Then, HERE'S THE EXCITING PART, Rig 8 is then due to drill 5 Herrera drills back to back. That's the money and the value that 'could' see multiples of value added to our company. In fairness to PL he said repeatedly that he 'must manage expectations' in a better way. And, on par with this, he claimed that he expects by the end of 2012 results from the 1st Herrera drill and at least a spudding of the 2nd - which at least seems achievable. Actually, the Trinidad timetable on the presentation was quite impressive and will hopefully be available on the RRL website soon.
Mark, who massively impressed me actually, spoke of how the Trinidad source rock was generating much more oil than could be contained in the oil traps within our licences. And that how eventually tapping directly into the source itself could create a truly world class find. He cited a similar example in Argentina that found (I hope I remembered this correctly) 600M recoverable from directly accessing the source rock. C0188 (neighbouring Herrera in Trinidad with a higher vantage point) proves further that we have an excellent chance of success with these deeper drills and that we may have benefited from migration into our licence area.
Trinidad is a long game, effectively RRL have been picking 'the low hanging fruit' as MP stated at one point. And why not, the payback is incredibly quick and there is sh#tloads of fruit. Target by June 2013 is 62 wells completed in total. So, effectively (if you subtract the 16 + 5) that leaves us with 41 wells targeted in Trinidad alone over the next 11 months. Or in more fun terms, roughly 1 well per 8/9 days....
2013 is Range's 'Banner Year' I believe PL quoted at one point.... By June 2013 he said that 4000BOPD was the plan, then add in Herrera success and the start of the waterflood campaign and Trinidad does start looking pretty sweet. 10000BOPD = $12 Per annum. With the upside of Waterflood and deeper drills there is every chance that RRL could be generating somewhere around $80M through Trinidad alone.
Petrotrin's royalty reductions. Negotations are due imminently. Petrotrin are desperate to get figures up to their past highs and all the onshore producers have got together to work on a better overall deal for producers. These negotiations are looking at basic base fees as well as accelerated capital reduction, especially on secondary recovery targets. PL implied that as early as September this year we could gain the benefits of any changes. Actually, anothe rimportant point, the Lenigas deal in Trinidad will probably go ahead if better rates and deals can be put in place with Petrotrin.
As I say, take his figures with a pinch of salt by all means - he certainly doesn't deserve to have his words treated as gospel anymore. But I really liked the enthusiasm and energy throughout, in particular, the talk about Trinidad. It was also great to finally put a face to Walter, our German on the ground leader in Trinidad, allbeit through a rather cheesy Trinidad PR video!!! )
COLOMBIA - Re-entry still possible in 2012 for PUT-7 well. Which I didn't know was actually formerly drilled by Texaco. So, RRL are due to fund 350KM 3D seismic, but it was made very clear that this isn't just a wild shot in the dark hoping for some lucky data back. 2D seismic already has highlighed 20 or so strong targets, 3D seismic will just focus in further and produce more accurate estimates and a CPR. When pushed by a very plump man during the Q+A session at the end, PL - after exchanging a few glances with AE, said that, in his opinion, there would be at least 200-400M barrels recoverable from our two basins. Bare in mind, this was moments after he had stated that he wanted to be more responsible with managing investors expectations - he looked like he wanted to give a much bolder answer, but reeled himself in.
TEXAS - Interesting that PL stated that he believes it is worth $170M, but that RRL would most likely accept an offer of $30/40M - gas prices in US horrendously low and PL has hardly kept his plans or expectations to sell a secret. It's not great, BUT, if that $40 for example, can actively be used to do a share buyback during the consolidation process then it still has a key role to play in RRL's development. (see corporate 3 step plan for more on this). We will know in the next 6 weeks what offers we have and IF we accept. As I say, the upside of holding on to Texas is not huge unless oil and gas prices considerably rise. Let's hope we get an acceptable prize and use this money in more exciting ways (such as a strategically timed buyback). If a sale does not come, it was stressed that an up to 30 wells programme could proceed, that would not be ideal, but very profitable for RRL in terms of P1 upgrades etc.
ETCV - Frac results = 130 barrels per day, of which 100 was Frac fluid and 30 was oil. So, some hope there, but all a little hazy still, but hopes that the licence could yield 5-7 M barrels over it's lifespan.
TANGIERS - PL was asked directly and it would seem that we have no plan to extend our stake in Tangiers Petroleum. In fact, it appeared quite clear that this doesn't fit in with our longer term plan, so RRL will cash in their 5% at a later date when TPET's projects have realised more upside. We are already well in profit here, but I think that the board would prefer to use this money to move along our other projects.
PUNTLAND - Approaching 1500M as of today. End of next week should be interesting. Obviously RMP BB will have false rumors etc starting already and the usual somalian taxi drivers and swedish DIY shop workers with insider knowledge rubbish... ) TD is due by the end of the month, so with testing I would suggest the 'big' announcement (amazing or shocking) should be Mid August. Obviously horn pull the strings, but this seems to be about right given how Horn dealt with the initial drill. Nugaal is still planned for Sep - 2 sites have been 'prepared', but I am sensing a lot depends on the outcome of Shabeel-North. If it is not commercial I as not convinced anymore that we will automatically move on to Nugaal. The body language became very guarded at this point.
MP actually confirmed something that a few were debating on a different BB the other day, that Shabeel-1 was on the outer SW of the basin. He did not overly explain the logic as to why this strategy was chosen, but needless to say, he believes that we have an excellent chance of a much bigger payzone / quantity of oil. Shabeel-North is a '3 way dip closure' which is what the most successful producing wells in Yemen were.
CORPORATE 3 STEP PLAN
The 3 step plan to move RRL forwards:
1) Puntland Vehicle - Working title = Rover Resources (funny, but I can see that name actually being used). 80/90% of new entity to current RRL holders. 10% held by RRL. Market cap of new entity likely to be more than RMP as it includes Offshore. the plan is to have Rover Resources set up prior to a third Puntland drill. If this is logistically possible, I don't know.... PL says that this spin off is likely to happen regardless of if Dharoor is commercial or not. Also, PL stated categorically that the spin off vehicle will NOT be RMP - a new entity will be created.
2) Consolidate 10-1 shares, so bringing down the total to about 230M shares. PL stated that he was aware that consolidations normally equated to a loss of 20/30% in value. Thus part 3.
3) Buy back as the consolidation process occurs. Historically this has counter acted the dip after consolidating and is the perfect tool to set the company up with some stability in it's new position.
PL- I like the man. He's not overly erudite or a great speaker, but he's a decent guy and he actually won over most investors there. He's messed up with timelines and strategies etc, but I genuinely think he is the right man to move RRL forward. I can going to get behind him and give him a real chance to meet these new targets he has given RRL. This really is a very special, if incredibly frustrating, company - Long term I know my money is safe here. Trinidad will be worth over $1B at some stage, so you have a definite multi bagger here at some point.... I am keeping the faith and will reassess next June - just gradual accumulation for me now....
Excuse loads of typos etc, it's 1am and my brain is now shutting down....
)
dreamcatcher
- 05 Jul 2012 05:18
- 4325 of 5221
Not sure about the share consolidation ? Not to keen on the two points below taken from the above report of the presentation. Just wonder then will Range start to issue more shares once they do this?
2) Consolidate 10-1 shares, so bringing down the total to about 230M shares. PL stated that he was aware that consolidations normally equated to a loss of 20/30% in value. Thus part 3.
3) Buy back as the consolidation process occurs. Historically this has counter acted the dip after consolidating and is the perfect tool to set the company up with some stability in it's new position.
dreamcatcher
- 05 Jul 2012 05:35
- 4326 of 5221
Sounds like some big changes coming for Range investors in the form of a share
consolidation of 10 for 1 and a share buy back. Also spin off of Puntland for investors.
TT looks like the driving force for Range. All looking like a several year investment . Investors will have to make some choices to sit tight or is it time to move on ?