What a chart, further to go, or not
Comments please

Nothing did happen for the rest of the afternoon, but the oil price has recovered and just now has gone positive for the day with a nice spike Up
should see a better day tomorrow if the price holds
futures
Brent $ 48.32 +0.10
light $ 47.76 +0.19

re - would not RDSB be a better bet

you suppose to know I do not go for dividends like you but a fast buck, no time for waiting recorded day.

that is the way shares move up today, you can make up your own mind why I have chosen PMO "cynic "

PMO 68p +4.62%
RDSB 2100p +0.86%

fair comment
i prefer RDSB (for my sipp) more as a defensive due to the source of its earnings as well the divi

ditto BATS and IMB which have performed very well all things considered

A view from " capra " of crude oil wave

Below is oil chart with how I see things playing out so far and what we could be looking at. If on the higher degree charts we are in corrective wave 2 of a 5 wave motive oil still has 2 large impulse moves to the upside with a further corrective move (wave 4) before the larger correction comes into play after the 5th wave on the higher degree.

Commodities have their cycles but are by far and large influenced by current and forward supply and demand forecasts. In case of PMO (and others) the data available from say OPEC and other producers-US stocks-Far East demand -available hydrocarbons currently held on "floating" storage due contango (not to be sneezed at) amongst others is far more relevant than technicals.

A weak pound is good for BP , Premier Oil and Enquest - By Motley Fool | Mon, 11th July 2016 - 16:14

One of the biggest beneficiaries of the pound's fall in the wake of Brexit has been oil stocks. That's because, like most commodities, oil is priced in dollars. London-listed oil stocks therefore have large dollar-based incomes that would benefit UK investors as they translate their foreign currency earnings back into sterling.

Dividend benefit

Shares in BP (LSE:BP) have benefitted massively from the recent fall in the pound, with shares up 20% since the EU referendum on 23 June.

Just like its earnings, BP's dividends are also declared in dollars, which means its dividends would also benefit from sterling's recent fall. The improved sterling value of BP's dividends mean UK investors would effectively get a 12% dividend rise, simply because of the fall in the value of the pound. Although this is a meaningful benefit for UK investors, sterling's weakness may not persist.

In addition, the pound's strength also pales in significance when compared to the fall in oil prices. Weaker sterling could add around 12% to the oil major's 2016 profits, but that still forecasts at less than half of its 2014 levels.

What's more, BP's dividends aren't fully covered by earnings and a dividend cut remains a very real possibility. BP's dividend futures, which are traded on Eurex, are currently pricing-in an 18% cut in its dividend for 2017.

Cost benefit

UK North Sea oil producers also have an additional benefit from weaker sterling: that is, improved competitiveness. Because a significant share of costs, including wages and a good proportion of equipment and services are paid in local currencies, UK North Sea producers have become relatively more competitive than their global peers.

The oil majors, including BP and Shell, have some big North Sea wells, but overall production from the UK accounts for a very small proportion of their total revenues. Instead, smaller producers, such as Premier Oil (LSE:PMO) and Enquest (LSE:ENQ), which have the bulk of their operations in the UK, stand to benefit more greatly from the improved cost competitiveness of UK North Sea.

Premier Oil is in a particularly good place to benefit from weaker sterling following its recent acquisition of Eon's North Sea assets back in April this year. But even before this recent deal, both producers generated a majority of revenues from the UK North Sea.

However, a weak pound may be too little too late for these oil producers. Both are quite heavily indebted and what they really need is a substantial rebound in oil prices. Although these companies earn most of their income in dollars, their debt is in the US currency too. So while the weaker pound does help in terms of competitiveness, it doesn't have an immediate benefit for debt as well.

Neither producer is expected to report a profit for the next two years, which makes it difficult to see whether their stocks are worth buying. The market seems optimistic though. Shares in Premier Oil are up 40% since the start of the year, while Enquest's shares have gained 61% over the same period.

StockMarketWire.com
Premier Oil said in the half year to June 30 it has delivered a robust production performance, achieved first oil from Solan, completed the E.ON acquisition and reached key milestones on the Catcher project.

HIGHLIGHTS:
* Strong production of 61.0 kboepd, with recent record rates above 80 kboepd; full year production expected to be at or above the upper end of earlier guidance of 65-70 kboepd

* Solan ramping up to 14 kbopd from P1, currently at 11 kbopd; P2 completed, successfully tested and will be tied in shortly

* Integration of E.ON UK assets completed; portfolio performing strongly

* Catcher on schedule with the FPSO hull now in Singapore; further cost reductions secured, with capex now 20 per cent lower than at sanction

* Opex for the period of $16/boe, 14 per cent below budget; weaker sterling exchange rate will reduce cost of sterling denominated opex, capex and debt

* Net debt of c. $2.6 billion at period end, flat on end Q1 2016 position; as previously announced, negotiations with lenders are progressing well with the main covenant test deferred while discussions are finalised.

Spangel comment today:
"Here is a scientific paradox which revolves around a cat in a box that may be dead or alive. How do you know unless you open the box and look? How can you tell that the action of opening the box doesn't kill the cat, or bring it back to life? In short, does observing whether the cat is dead or alive create the outcome?
In this respect we believe that PMO is in the same position with its debt. If it looks, it will breach its covenants, but if it doesn't ask the question, it can say that it doesn't breach. We get the impression in this instance that Management know that their debt cat in the box is dead, but until they open it up and look, they can say that it isn't; QED: no breach.
This doesn't change the fact, however, that outside of the Management team, the way in which this has been articulated, strongly suggests, with a high degree of confidence, that the covenants have been breached, otherwise, why would the Management team leave the Company's future in limbo for so long while they renegotiate the covenants?
We would expect the share price to stage a rally in the short term as the Company’s owners express relief, but this does not escape the fact that the outlook for the Company is less in the hands of management, and more in the hands of its creditors. This could be terminal for the Durant reign, which let’s not forget signalled that the Company was ex-growth by initiating a share buyback programme in a falling oil price environment to generate shareholder value.
In the longer term however we are more confident that the Company will survive as there is a significant number of highly regarded members of the Management team that can step in seamlessly if the need arises, to help navigate the Company’s future, potentially through what is becoming an increasingly difficult time.
Once the outlook for the Company stabilises, or at least the path that it will follow becomes more certain, we believe that attention will start to turn towards the decisions that have been made, when and how. As with all companies in these positions, we believe that the Management team need to start to articulate what the future plan will be, and what portfolio action they will take, because against this backdrop, we can’t see its Falklands ambitions surviving.

72p +3.25p

Should you play the oil price recovery with PMO?
By Motley Fool | Tue, 12th July 2016 - 14:24

North Sea-focused

Premier Oil came under the spotlight this year when shares crashed to 19p from their 2015 peak of 180p. The update from Premier today is a strong one but the balance sheet remains a serious worry even though recent production rates have been above 80,000 bopd and full-year guidance is likely to beat expectations. This was due to Premier's new Solan development coming online and producing 11,000 bopd. It's also encouraging that opex is $14 per barrel below budget and the integration of E.ON's North Sea assets is complete.

CEO Tony Durrant stated that Premier has "delivered a robust production performance." He also added: "At current oil prices, we start to generate free cash flow later this year, which positions us well to manage the balance sheet whilst retaining some optionality for future growth projects."

The Oil Man - By Malcolm Graham-Wood | Tue, 12th July 2016 - 13:53

Premier Oil

A trading and operations update from Premier (PMO) today, but whatever I write I know that the prophets of doom will be on my case about the debt situation.

Now I am aware, as is the management, that the debt is an issue - but I do still feel that on the operational side Premier is continuing to deliver the goods. Production at 61/- barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) was good in the first half and has hit 80/- on recent days, so the full year will be at or above the top end of recent guidance of 65-70/- boe/d.

Solan is ramping up (I will get hassle about this, no doubt), Catcher is on schedule to be live in second-half 2017 and operational expenditure is $16 per barrel, 14% below budget although currency does help a bit. That net debt I mentioned is $2.6 billion, flat on first-quarter, but discussions to alter covenants and maturities continue.

Elsewhere, operations appear to be sound enough and the carrot of being free cash flow-positive at current prices later this year, added to falling capital expenditure, should be enough to silence the critics - but somehow I doubt it.

Never mind, it's in the bucket list for a reason: from a low of 19p in January to the current level of 72p is an outstanding return even taking into account the oil price. And with Sea Lion looking most interesting at this cost base and the EON assets delivering well, that has proved to be a smart move.

I am happy to stay positive, fully aware of the risks, and will stand by for the incoming later…

you've called a few very well in recent days .... well done
thought you were out of PMO now

With oil price having a new low recently this morning, oil shares had also move lower but are on the bounce from earlier lows. which is the best to bounce from the recent bout?

ENQ and IAE - steady rise

GENL and PANR - rising fast

PMO and TLW - still on the way down

with WTI now being barely $41, oilies do not look the place to be at the moment

And oil prices should be down again at the pumps which they are not .

look at £/$ ROE .... might give you a clue

MOVEMENT during the last 2 months

PMO is having a couple of days with large fall as oil prices moved to $40, but not long ago is having a bit of a bounce to $41.40 and being up for the day, but PMO is still down -3.2 (-5.51%).

How 3 stocks of much the same cap have performed during the last year

taking current sp v one year high:
PMO 55 v 132 so it needs 120% rise
TLW 185 v 280 so it needs 55% rise
OPH 67 v 118, so it needs 77% rise
------------------
RNS
Schroders below 5%
Date of the transaction and date on which the threshold is crossed 29.07.16
before 38,338,530
now 25,375,179 4.968%

Bought some at 56p

after following for a while their movement on the order book and the movement with a double intraday low, Order book has change for the last 10 minutes and now is stronger on the bid side 69 v 62 after being the other way all day. There is support around 55p and Oil price is recovering but PMO is still well down for the day

an interesting punt with reasonable logic with sp just touching 200 dma .... always presupposing oil also recovers somewhat, which is also far from impossible