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Earthport: Ready to fly (EPO)     

jdubb - 04 Mar 2004 17:44

Some good news at last from this weeks Shares mag. Tim Freeborn revisits the company and altho no firm details are given about new deals he says they will be announced this quarter. I would think that this could be at the same time as the interim results are announced. I for one will be holding on cos they will fly sooner rather than later! ( 8.30% up today!)

draw?epic=EPO

Paulvoigt - 19 Aug 2004 10:33 - 433 of 706

this is truly an astounding state of afairs, i had my last post edited, thank you Shares Magazine, beyond criticism are we?

For the record I am requesting that you remove me from your mailing list and cease sending the magazine to my home immediately.

Is that fair?

IanT(MoneyAM) - 19 Aug 2004 11:38 - 434 of 706

Paul,

I am sorry that you feel this way, and I will remove you from teh MoneyAM mailing lists.

If you would like to cancel your subscription to the magazine, please let me know ian@moneyam.com and I will contact Shares magazine on your behalf.

Regards

Ian

IanT(MoneyAM) - 19 Aug 2004 13:31 - 435 of 706

oneill,

We reserve the right to remove or edit any post we see fit - yours and other peoples views have received fair airing on this thread, and Mike (Managing Director - MoneyAM) has decided to remove or edit posts that we have not deemed acceptable.

As he has suggested - if you have an issue with the magazine please send a letter to the editor at the address already supplied.

Ian

Helly - 19 Aug 2004 13:32 - 436 of 706

Has anyone tried contacting EPO for a comment regarding the current share price and the sell recommendation in todays Shares magazine ? I have sent an e-mail but have had no reply. I bought a substantial holding on Shares mag earlier buy recommendation but feel we should be contacting the company for information not hounding Shares mag staff, despite my obvious disappointment.

fur - 19 Aug 2004 14:09 - 437 of 706

I have found me password. What is going on with PCM, EPO is obviuosly raising more moeny, or being bought by baltimore.

Helly - 19 Aug 2004 14:28 - 438 of 706

O'Neill, I have just spoken to Peter Chappell who has confirmed the same. Statement will be released tomorrow or Monday at the latest. He intimated this would be positive.

Stonealone - 19 Aug 2004 15:57 - 439 of 706

Fred1new - 19 Aug 2004 16:00 - 440 of 706

One ill. Charming and endearing as ever!!!

Stonealone - 19 Aug 2004 16:05 - 441 of 706

If TF can (I assume) sell his stock out the day before the ShareMag issue then he had no option but to call it as a Sell. I can appreciate his reasoning but at this price we are talking basic option money with no time erosion. Maybe now is a good time for EPO Directors to show their commitment to their company and buy some stock . In the meantime the MM's have it all their own way and the small guys once again get ground down.

Stonealone - 19 Aug 2004 16:13 - 442 of 706

Stonealone - 19 Aug 2004 16:14 - 443 of 706

Just picked up some stock (not difficult) between 1.35 and 1.41 I am definately not going to lose any sleep over it.

jonny wilkinson - 19 Aug 2004 18:29 - 444 of 706

i've been slated on this board since my first posting, my view has not changed on the company and its management no matter how positive the trading statement is when it finally appears. Take a very close look at the revenue numbers when they appear and ask yourself if these no's contain real revenues from actual sales, check debtors / creditors, interesting to see if ernst & young sign the same no's off at audit stage.
Im very unhappy with what is possibly inc in these revenues ( to satisfy new investors i might ask, bear in mind RC told shareholders that epo did not need to raise more money.
This man s position is untenable, he must go , its best for everyone concerned

jdubb - 19 Aug 2004 18:40 - 445 of 706

JW

You where right all along! I take my hat off to you cos ive given you stick too(Rob67 on ADVFN)but you have stuck to your guns about RC and i for one now believe you!! Shame ive wasted stacks of cash on this pile of shite too!!

paul30661 - 19 Aug 2004 18:56 - 446 of 706

So if the trading statement doesn't appear tomorrow (Fri) or by close of business on Monday can we assume that both of the EPO people, whose comments to Qu's were posted on here are blaggers, (always assuming that the posters on here are correct).

Can someone post an email address on here on how to contact RC or the chairman if the trading statement doesn't arrive. I'm sure that I could look it up on the EPO website but I can't be arsed to spend any more time than I have to on this stock!

Also do we know for sure whether Tim Freeborn has sold. Could he confirm whether he still holds his stock, either in full or part, (I can't see by him disclosing whether he holds a few million shares when there are 500 ml. in circulation is going to affect the price). Also we don't know what price he bought at. So he might not be well down - just bruised ?!

Also, what about the big bear position reported here earlier this week and last. Presumably these people have cleaned up on the latest fall and if the trading statement contains more puffed up promises, they will want to close their positions and take profits just in case some of it is true. Will this not be positive for the share and give a time for those remaining bears who hold stock to exit at a higher price than now ?

Just my thoughts :-)


drunker50 - 19 Aug 2004 20:53 - 447 of 706

why is it so difficult to get the wording right on a trading update,probly cos they are working extra hard at making mutton look like lamb

dvarcher - 19 Aug 2004 22:34 - 448 of 706

jonny

Like you, I will be watching with interest to see how much revenue Cunningham is claiming on the full year results. If it is greater than 1.5m then we should look long and hard at the figures because this will not ring true.

Cunningham is now in the last chance saloon and he will no doubt be looking out for no. 1. As you say, he will be trying to raise cash and the inference is that he will be looking for private money. I'm presuming that the trading update is not audited and therefore it would be probable that any revenue figures posted will be 'amended' once an audited financial statement is issued. This is standard practice of course but just how much they will be amended - and for what reasons - will be interesting to see. A private investor would be very brave to invest in earthport if revenues are between 1m and 1.5 as expected (by me) because the company cannot survive with such low revenues and totally disproportionate cost base.

I'm actually surprised that Cunningham is going ahead with the trading update.

You and I could have got it wrong of course but I doubt it.

Regards

(All in my most humble opinion of course)

EWRobson - 20 Aug 2004 00:53 - 449 of 706

Been on the road for the day so fascinated to see the hornet's nest stirred up. My concern is that there is something like a lemming-style rush for the exit; if so why now? Three points:
1) Understandably Shares Magazine has lost patience. They must value their readers (!) and are clearly angry themselves at putting out comment on a trading statement which had not in fact appeared. However, I question the logic for changing their advice from Hold on this basis. It is clear that the trading statement will be positive, although I agree that it needs to be read with caution, but it makes more sense to hold until it arrives.
2) The price was marked down, ascribed to the Shares Magazine advice. However, the trading voume was evenly matched between buys and sells. The 3.7M sales were spread over about 40 sales of average 100,000 each or some 1100. The 3.6M buys were dominated by purchases of 2million and 750,000. There is no rush for the exit by larger holders. The volumes hardly warrant the change in share price; expect the MMs expected greater volume so marked the price down.
3) dvarcher puts the discussion on a more sensible basis. Interim revenue was 416K so his range of revenues (1M to 1.5M) seems reasonable, possibly nearer the latter with additional revenue lines coming on stream. Interim pre-tax loss was 2.81M but this was sharply down. It would not be surprising if there was further fund-raising, although a share placing is now not an attractive route. I think the key factor is the institutional view of revenue and profit projections; this is probably tied in with their view of the credibility of the directors. The interim statement was impressive - the view on this bb is that it was over-cooked. However, the technology appeared extremely impressive (unique?) and the client list includes important players.

Conclusion? Hold until the trading statement. Little point in selling at this level. Market capitalisation is down to 8million. What is value of technology to other players? The Hong Kong contract alone was claimed to be worth far more than that (I accept speed of roll-out was and maybe still is uncertain). Can we have views on this bb on the trading statement which are as objective as possible? (I accept a hard ask!) I suspect that 'this may be the darkest hour' and the conclusion may well be Buy.

Andyjfoth - 20 Aug 2004 07:39 - 450 of 706

I agree lets wait until Monday to see what they say it could well be a Buy !!
It would help also if the Directors put there money where there mouth is and make a substantail Investment in the company so to restore our faith.
Share prices only go up if there is good news.
Been no good news for months hence crappy share price.

Tradx - 20 Aug 2004 08:55 - 451 of 706

EWRobson,

Another excellent well-measured post!! But (to my mind at least) partly based on some inaccuracies;- Shares Magazine did not put the Sell recommendation out just because of the lack of a trading statement. They said

..But it is impossible to keep supporting a company that fails repeatedly to turn forecasts into reality. .

They took this stance because of a stream of information they have been given by the company has subsequently been shown to be completely unsubstantiated e.g. The UK Post Office deal (told to them that it had been completed in January/Feb) and only awaiting Cabinet Approval, I can tell you factually that I have spoken directly to contacts at the post office and NO SUCH deal has EVER been done. The litany of other info which proved to be inaccurate is on this thread (and others) for all to see/read.

A shareholder here, recorded a conversation with the CEO. This poster maintains that he had been lied to about a US deal (remember the interims said that a deal had been all but done in the US). There are so many other examples of inaccuracies and inconsistencies you could in the short time I have been watching/investigating this company write a book which I suspect would make compelling reading!!

I'm also amazed how calmly holders/posters seem to be accepting that previous assurances about not needing further funding are now seen to be so obviously wrong. Clearly, this shows that he/the board/both have (at best) been extremely over optimistic. This, along with other information brought to light here must mean as Executives their professional judgment must be questioned.

If you are not able to, or cannot deliver on your promises, then the least you should do is to stop setting expectations to be judged against, most especially if you are briefing the press!

As I have said before, they must learn to stop over-promising and under-delivering, until then, precisely as share magazine is suggesting their public credibility and believability will be continually questioned.

Surely, they must realise that investors asking these questions are a consequence of their inability to deliver on their guidance, not the cause of it?

If the trading statement that comes out today or Monday is more fluff than substance (like the notes/promises in the interims simply compare them to the reality of their public position) but is closer to the 4.2 million revenue expectation than some other figures that have been mentioned here, then they might just be able to redeem themselves.

Of course, it should also offer some explanation of what has happened to the blue-chip deals they talked so confidently about, their very credibility in investors eyes demands this as a bare minimum!

As for the technology, it does read as if it impressive, but thats pointless if the company is unable to consistently sell it for a profit and to now generate substantial revenues, it is beginning to look questionable after all this time if a sustainable market exists for its offerings.

Based on the interims and projecting them forward, I maintain that break-even for this company is somewhere between 5-6 million of annual revenue, which suggests at the current rate they will need at least a further 4-6 million of funding to get there, Im sure you can work out the dilution effect assuming this is accurate. Therefore the realistic short term outlook for the share price must be no higher than it is now, and in all likelihood probably lower.

How they can persuade any more investors to put in further funding based on the apparent track record of this executive is simply beyond me, I cannot see how they will manage to raise a single penny from normal city sources.. if nothing else, you have got to take your hat off to them! They obviously know how to spin a great yarn.

Conclusion?

Yes, hold until the trading statement, but then cast a very critical eye over what you are reading and understand that no professional advisor will have checked the figures for accuracy; the Nomads responsibility here is (from anything I can read) vague to say the least.

Remember, the COO/Director has resigned and they have still not officially told the market! Ive lost count, but how many is that now they have lost now? (Again, Im not sure what the AIM rules are about announcing this type of news to the market, but I cannot see how this cannot be a material news issue).

So, to borrow a phrase from a respected poster elsewhere,

Caveat Emptor!!!

As always, DYOR all IMHO and that entire BS!

Fred1new - 20 Aug 2004 09:25 - 452 of 706

Tradx.

Thank you. Well argued and reasonable. We await with some hope.When you take a punts on small caps, they are just punts however well informed you think you are and sometimes they don't live up to expectations.
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