I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

right on gibby.

Freefall..

Bounce coming?

dead cat?

Dead duck more like.,.

Comment from Cazenove:
"The continued weakness of the Man Group share price raises inevitable questions as to whether the bottom has yet been reached, and whether after five years of underperformance relative to the sector the situation is about to reverse. The key in this respect remains, we believe, the direction of earnings estimates. Once again, however, we are reducing estimates to reflect weaker investment performance into the year end.
The operational gearing of earnings estimates to investment performance assumptions remains marked because of the influence of performance fees. Simply put, current NAVs suggest that the core AHL business is some 10% below high water marks, and given our assumption of 10% annualised returns from the product we are, once again, 12 months away from expecting material performance fees to be earned. Inevitably this situation can change quickly, the fillip in (Vuma) consensus earnings estimates at the time of the Q1 IMS last June comes to mind, but at this stage the prospect for performance fees in the 2012E financial year looks bleak.
The fact that we are now assuming negligible performance fees in the current year should suggest that our earnings estimates are now near a base. Unfortunately there remains the issue that – in common with our assumption set across the sector – we continue to assume positive fund investment returns for the year, and also that these fund returns will beget fund inflows in due course. As was seen so markedly in 2011, these are not sacrosanct assumptions, and our 2011E earnings have been revised lower to reflect the combined impacts of degearing at AHL, higher redemptions, lower gross sales and lower fund values. It is perhaps sobering to note that our 2011E year end AUM estimate for the group of $58bn is around three quarters of the level of AUM in March 2008, since when the company has acquired GLG, which itself brought some $20bn of AUM.
Marked impact on 2012E where our group EPS estimate falls to just 9c per share, from a prior estimate of 32c. Within this, our performance fee earnings estimate has fallen to 0.4c per share from 10.2c, but we have also reduced our management earnings estimate from 10.2c to 9.0c, a 12% reduction. We would note that this is despite the benefit of the share repurchase programme executed in the last two months of 2011 which saw the company repurchase 3% of its equity.
At this level of earnings, dividend cover again becomes a pertinent issue despite the dividend per share having been halved in the year to March 2011. The company has already indicated that it intends to pay a final dividend of 7 cents per share for the final quarter of the shortened financial period to December 2011, making a payment for the nine months of 16.5c. This is meant to represent three quarters of a pro rated maintained dividend of 22c, but assuming that this was the intended payment for 2012E, estimated earnings would cover less than half of the payment. Clearly on our assumptions, earnings would recover rapidly into 2013E, driven by performance fees, and would re-establish dividend cover of 1.2x. The management maintained the dividend in 2009 despite modest cover, and again in 2010 although the dividend was uncovered, before halving the payment in 2011. Obviously the result would almost certainly end up having to be a result of better performance from both sides, but in our view this maths does highlight the risk that consensus earnings estimates for 2012E still have further to fall."

..FTSE 100: Man Group retreats as large-caps recover

By Rachel Cooper | Telegraph – 2 hours 36 minutes ago



......
Man Group and fellow asset managers came under pressure on Friday as a clutch of analysts sounded a note of caution on the sector.

Shares in Man have come under pressure since the hedge fund manager revealed in September that clients had pulled out more than $2bn in funds over the summer amid "extreme" market volatility.

Writing on the sector, analysts at Credit Suisse (NYSEArca: CSMA - news) said that despite a recovery in equity market performance in late 2011, it remains cautious on the sustainability of the recovery given the lingering macro issues in Europe (Chicago Options: ^REURUSD - news) , which has lead to subdued net fund flows.

"We remain particularly cautious on fund flows in Europe as banks which are major distributors of funds continue to focus on shoring up deposits, with Euro area deposits increasing by over 400 billion euros for 12 months ending Oct (KOSDAQ: 039200.KQ - news) 11," it said.

RBC Capital Markets added its voice to the chorus of caution, cutting its rating on Man to “sector perform” from “outperform”.

Ahead of a trading update from Man on January 18, analysts said they were now taking “an even more pessimistic view of performance in the final quarter of 2011”. While Man continues to offer an attractive dividend yield, analysts added this was countered by challenges such as the potential for continuing market volatility that could hamper the hedge fund manager.

Man sank 10.3 to 112.7p

to find support watch for the next update this month.

Still heavy buy back program continuing, so at some point this should recover.

"Transaction in own shares

Man Group plc announces that on 11 January 2012 it purchased for cancellation 500,000 of its ordinary shares at an average price of 104.3684 pence per ordinary share.
Following this cancellation the total number of ordinary shares in issue will be 1,820,489,840. The Company does not hold any shares in Treasury."

Sub 100p tomorrow..?

Wednesday January 18

• Analysts have rounded on Man Group (LSE: EMG.L - news) over the past few months cutting their earning forecasts on the company and warning of a further outflow of funds in the three months to the end of December. Earlier this month, JP Morgan Cazenove, Credit Suisse (NYSEArca: CSMA - news) and RBC (MCX: RBCI.ME - news) all downgraded their estimates on the world's largest-listed hedge fund, which will be desperate to convince investors that it can withstand the current economic downturn.

good to see man buying their own shares - no one else wants them lol!!!

however ripe for a t/o soon if this keeps up is the chatter!!!

trading update due tomorrow i believe...............................

Better be good.

i think the red today maybe an indicator of whats coming??? really a flip of the coin but last i knew there is nothing to cheer about unless a t/o approach has been received already!! gl

12 month low 103.10. I don't hold, but I guess they could turn quickly on a reasonable TU?

Or fall 10p on a bad day.

Trading Statement.

18 January 2012

NOAM GOTTESMAN APPOINTED NON EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN OF GLG (US)

On 17 January 2012, Noam Gottesman, a founding partner and Principal of GLG Partners, Inc., stood down as co-CEO of GLG and has taken on the role of non-executive Chairman of GLG's business and interests in the US ("GLG (US)"). Manny Roman continues as sole CEO of GLG and Chief Operating Officer of Man Group plc.

Jon Aisbitt, Chairman of Man Group, said: "We thank Noam for his contribution in helping to integrate GLG into Man. He has outstanding entrepreneurial talents and market expertise which will continue to be available to Man in his new role as non-executive Chairman of GLG (US)."

Noam Gottesman said: "The first priority following the combination of Man and GLG was to complete the integration of the two businesses. This has now been successfully achieved and therefore I have decided to move to a non-executive role. This will give me the time to develop a portfolio of non-competing business and other interests. I remain fully committed to Man as a significant shareholder in the company and investor in GLG funds."

The fund lock up and share lock up arrangements entered into by Mr Gottesman at the time of Man's acquisition of GLG remain unaltered and the restrictive covenants also remain in place.

StockMarketWire.com
Hedge fund manager Man Group said Funds under Management (FUM) at end- December 2011 were $58.4bn, down from $64.5bn at end-September and $69.1bn at end-March 2011. There was a net outflow of $2.5bn in the quarter.

Sales in the quarter to end-December were $3.1bn and redemptions were $5.6bn, giving a net outflow of $2.5bn.

There were negative investment movements of $1.5bn, with AHL Diversified plc down 7.7% in the quarter, but a positive overall performance at GLG.

FX and other movements were a negative $2.1bn, driven principally by previously announced guaranteed product degears of $1.6bn and FX translation effects of $0.3bn.

Man continues to review operating costs and efficiencies. In addition to the previously announced savings, a further $75m of cost reductions from the 31st December 2011 cost run rate will be implemented by the end of 2012. $50 million of these additional savings are expected to be realised in 2012 and the balance in 2013.

Further details, including any exceptional costs to deliver these savings, will be contained in the final results statement on 1st March. The previously announced savings of $40m relating to outsourcing and reduced finance expense are on track for 2012.

Man said its financial position remains robust, with net tangible assets of $1.6bn, net cash of $600m and total available liquidity resources of $3.2bn. After the repurchase of shares and the payment of the interim dividend, the regulatory capital surplus on 31st December 2011 was around $850m.

As previously announced, the Board expects to propose a final dividend for the three month period to 31st December 2011 of 7.0 cents per share, to give a maintained total dividend, pro-rated for the nine month period, of 16.5 cents per share.