What a chart, further to go, or not
Comments please

you've called a few very well in recent days .... well done
thought you were out of PMO now

With oil price having a new low recently this morning, oil shares had also move lower but are on the bounce from earlier lows. which is the best to bounce from the recent bout?

ENQ and IAE - steady rise

GENL and PANR - rising fast

PMO and TLW - still on the way down

with WTI now being barely $41, oilies do not look the place to be at the moment

And oil prices should be down again at the pumps which they are not .

look at £/$ ROE .... might give you a clue

MOVEMENT during the last 2 months

PMO is having a couple of days with large fall as oil prices moved to $40, but not long ago is having a bit of a bounce to $41.40 and being up for the day, but PMO is still down -3.2 (-5.51%).

How 3 stocks of much the same cap have performed during the last year

taking current sp v one year high:
PMO 55 v 132 so it needs 120% rise
TLW 185 v 280 so it needs 55% rise
OPH 67 v 118, so it needs 77% rise
------------------
RNS
Schroders below 5%
Date of the transaction and date on which the threshold is crossed 29.07.16
before 38,338,530
now 25,375,179 4.968%

Bought some at 56p

after following for a while their movement on the order book and the movement with a double intraday low, Order book has change for the last 10 minutes and now is stronger on the bid side 69 v 62 after being the other way all day. There is support around 55p and Oil price is recovering but PMO is still well down for the day

an interesting punt with reasonable logic with sp just touching 200 dma .... always presupposing oil also recovers somewhat, which is also far from impossible

57.625p +1.875 +3.36%

On the up for the last couple days as late lat night the OIL PRICE HAS FINALLY reached that $40 twice and bounce from there.

58.50p +2.75p

With the interest cuts just announced to 0.25%, the ones to benefit most would be stocks with plenty of borrowing and PMO is one of them

63p +3.50p

PREMIER OIL
The 13/25-1 well, which was targeting the Bagpuss prospect, on the Halibut Horst in the Outer Moray Firth, has reached a total depth of 1,532 feet (TVDSS) in granite basement.

The well encountered 41 feet of hydrocarbon-bearing sands within a 68 feet hydrocarbon column. This is in line with pre-drill estimates. The sands have between 25 per cent and 33 per cent porosity and indications are that the oil is heavy. The well is now being plugged and abandoned.

Robin Allan, Director of Exploration and North Sea, commented:

"The Bagpuss well has proven a significant volume of oil in place. We will now work with our partners to carry out a full analysis of the hydrocarbons and reservoir encountered to ascertain whether commerciality can be established."

73.50p +3.75p

TELEGRAPH- Jillian Ambrose 13 AUGUST 2016 • 6:30PM Premier Oil (PMO) poised to unveil £2bn refinancing kickstart

London-based Premier Oil is on the brink of agreeing a full-scale £2.6bn restructuring deal

The UK’s largest independent oil company is on the brink of agreeing a full-scale £2.6bn restructuring deal which is expected to secure its survival.

Premier Oil has been locked in talks with its lenders for months over fears that the crushing oil market downturn could push the company into default on its loans. Premier is weighed down with £2.6bn of debt that was taken on to finance the development of two significant North Sea oil projects.

The projects are both expected to reach their peak production rates by the end of next year and, in the absence of any further large spending commitments, will start to repay their financing costs.

City analysts say a fresh debt restructuring could help Premier’s dragging share price to almost double its current level. Premier is expected to reveal further detail of its rescue package this week alongside first-half financial results. Full details are expected to emerge in the following weeks.

Since the oil price collapse two years ago almost 80pc has been wiped from Premier’s value, leaving the company unable to pass its mid-year financial covenant tests, while its share price stutters around the 70p a share mark.

Under the terms of its lender agreements, the company is expected to keep within a net debt to earnings ratio of 4.75. However, the collapse in oil prices means Premier would be in breach of its covenant with a ratio of 5.2 if the reviews were carried out.

Premier has been granted repeated waivers by its banks, but with the most recent stay of execution set to expire at the end of this month City analysts are anxious to hear further detail of its plans.

The final deal is expected to include a relaxing of its debt covenants from 4.75 to 6 times its earnings. The explorer is also expected to receive extensions on its loan maturities across its revolving credit facility and its loans, which should allow time to shore up Premier’s balance sheet through stronger oil production rates as market prices rise.

Analysts at Macquarie said that early hints from the company seemed to suggest that the banks will allow it to continue reinvesting and that the new structure will be non-amortising, “which is also a plus, and rare in the sector”.

In return, Premier may need to offer its banks some security against the debt portfolio, all of which is currently unsecured.

We believe Premier can outline the operational progress needed to see the business through the current oil price downturn

Barclays
“If Premier manages to deliver on the refinancing, we believe this could be a significant positive catalyst for the share price,” Macquarie added, saying its shares could reach 127p each compared to its current value of about 70p. Premier has maintained the support of city analysts and its lending syndicate due to its success in driving costs lower, while its production rate climbs.

It raised eyebrows this year after paying out $120m (£93m) to snap up North Sea gas assets from Germany’s Eon, but far from hitting its already bruised balance sheet the bumper acquisition is expected to boost earnings by lifting production.

Eon’s assets are forecast to add 17,000 barrels a day to Premier’s production portfolio. The company is also on track to begin full production from its Solan gas field near the Shetland islands, which will add a further 25,000 barrels a day to its portfolio when it reaches its full rate later this year.

By the third quarter of next year its Catcher oilfield is expected to come onstream and deliver a peak production rate of 50,000 barrels of oil a day.

The upgraded production profile is a stark step-change from its average rate of 61,000 barrels a day in the first half of the year.

Premier also expects to receive a boost from the pound’s post-Brexit slump against the dollar because the UK-listed company is able to pay the start-up costs of its new Catcher North Sea oil project in sterling while receiving revenue in a stronger dollar currency.

Analysts at Barclays said: “Although worries about the balance sheet and the stock’s sensitivity to the oil price outlook continue to dominate investor sentiment, we believe Premier can outline the operational progress needed to see the business through the current oil price downturn.”

Close position T+11 @ 75.58p

It was getting toppish on the Bollinger Band and Stochastic

A 35% gain on 9 days

Half-Yearly Results for the six months to 30 June 2016

Tony Durrant, Chief Executive, commented:
"Delivery of a step change in production levels and a leaner operating cost base has addressed the lower commodity price environment. Full year production guidance is now increased, which will drive free cash flow generation. We have made substantial progress with our lending group on the principal terms of a refinancing. Our project portfolio has been expanded, positioning Premier for future growth at lower cost."

Entering new phase
· Moving to positive cash flow following a period of substantial investment
· E.On UK acquisition brings portfolio and financial benefits
· Full year production guidance raised to 68-73 kboepd
· Cost base reset
· Progress being made with lending group to amend financial covenants and to revise debt maturities

Strong operational performance
· Production averaged 61.0 kboepd (2015 H1: 60.4 kboepd)
· 93 per cent production efficiency
· Recent record production rates above 95 kboepd
· Solan on-stream

Solid financial performance
· Profit after tax of US$167.1 million, including E.On negative goodwill credit of US$106.9 million (2015 H1: loss of US$375.2 million)
· Operating cash flow of US$108.7 million (2015 H1: US$513.0 million)
· H1 operating costs of US$16.5/boe, 14 per cent below budget
· Weaker sterling exchange rate positively impacts forward opex, capex and debt
· Net debt slightly lower on end Q1 position at US$2.63 billion (31 December 2015: US$2.2 billion)

Future growth
· Catcher on schedule for 2017 first oil, capex 20 per cent lower than at sanction
· High return infill drilling in UK and Asia
· New development projects benefitting from improved economics
· Exploration prospects in Mexico, Brazil and UK Southern Gas Basin

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5400116

Bought some at 66.96p

The large fall today and and now bounce back with strong order book on the bid side. Had a very large retracement from the 80p high.
Oil price have stagnated so far today after the the recent 2 weeks fall
Both PMO and Light oil had about 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

already at 69p
and the dollar has stopped rising and about time getting weak so oil prices and metals rising

intraday chart of MAM as usual not working properly showing 68.38p

Pound againts Dollar

Bloomberg - September 4, 2016

Saudi Arabia raises oil prices amid signs of growing demand

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, has raised pricing for October oil sales to Asia and the United States in a sign of strengthening demand.

The state-owned Aramco increased its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents a barrel, to 20 cents below the regional benchmark, it said on Sunday. The company had been expected to raise Arab Light prices by 50 cents a barrel, to 60 cents less than the benchmark for Asian buyers, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of seven refiners and traders in the region.

Brent crude has dropped about half from its average price in 2014, when Saudi Arabia led Opec to maintain production to drive out higher-cost suppliers. The group decided at a June 2 meeting in Vienna to stick to its policy of unfettered production, with ministers united in their optimism that global oil markets are improving. Opec will meet again this month in Algiers.

Saudi Arabia will not boost output to its full 12.5 million barrel-a-day capacity and flood the market, the kingdom’s energy minister Khalid Al Falih said last week. Saudi Arabia is not concerned about global demand in spite of a drop in prices and a slower economy, he said while on a state visit to Asian nations including China and Japan.

Saudi Aramco raised pricing for all other crude grades to Asia by a range of 70 to 95 cents a barrel against the benchmark, while it boosted pricing for all grades to the US by a range of 20 to 30 cents. The company cut all prices to north-west Europe and the Mediterranean region.

Global oil-market stability is impossible without the cooperation of Russia and Saudi Arabia, said Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Saudi Arabia hopes to work with Russia for stability in oil markets, Prince Mohammed said Sunday in a meeting with the Russian president in Hangzhou, China. World leaders are gathering in China this week for a summit of Group of 20 nations. Russia and Saudi Arabia will meet with other producers in Algeria this month to discuss oil markets.

"Our countries are the two biggest oil producers, that’s why there can’t be a stable policy in the sphere of oil without the participation of Russia and Saudi Arabia," said Prince Mohammed. Mr Putin said it is important for the two countries to "maintain a permanent dialogue".

70.25p +1.75p

the bounce continues, as the oil price has spike up