.

rocking in Toronto tonight on monster volume!!

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=XEL

not quite true ..... it really only closed an additional $0.14 higher from opening, which itself would have reflected london

Taking the post from SH, copied over and highlighted below in italics, it is interesting consider and could explain the decision to drawdown, the Jurassic certainly is in play now, thats why they drilled the pilot down deeper to see if it was oil bearing, which it is.

A sidetrack test of it up-dip, along with some logging and coring could certainly excite things, in particular if the results are good, it might be a nice Christmas bonus for Xcite holders.

Certainly I have been and still am expecting flow test results on the main target around the middle of this month, but a sidetrack test of the now known to exist secondary target might prove quite interesting.

Nice strong close in Canada as well, closed rising upwards at C$3.59 which is circa 2.20



"..........The weather window for testing seems to be excellent. Over the next 7 days the waves are expected to be mainly below 3 meters and the wind to be mainly under 20 kmh. Couldn't have hoped for better weather, especially at this time of year in the North Sea.

They booked the rig for 65 days just in case the weather did not co-operate. This did not happen. Therefore, they should probably finish testing by mid November, leaving about 20 days on the rig availability, more than enough to drill a sidetrack.

At the same time, in their pilot well they hit 15 feet of Jurrasic oil pay below Bentley, hopefully light oil. As their primary goal was not the Jurassic, the hole was at the very fringe of the Jurassic, thus the limited thickness.

I would not be surprised that once they finish testing Bentley, hopefully by mid November, and if everything goes according to plan, that they will decide to drill a sidetrack that would hit the Jurassic about 500 meters or more towards the centre. The Jurassic's aerial extent is quite large per the company's maps. So if they can establish a thickness of say 50 feet and do at least a log test, the value of the company would increase considerably and we would have two oil plays stacked above each other. Not bad.

This is just conjecture on my part, but it could explain why they decided to drawdown on the SEDA facility today at a lower price than they could have got in a week's time."...........

I said it earlier and I'll say it again :

To put things into perspective.

Encore (EO.) have about, taking in their percentages, presently only about 20 million recoverable barrels on their books they could claim, and hope for more.

Their market cap is over 360 million pounds.


Xcite (XEL) could soon be able to stick a 200 million recoverable barrels claim on their books and yet the market cap is still, at this moment, below that of EO.

Now yes, XEL has heavy oil but the discount is nowhere near what is presently priced by the market for XEL. Therefore I do easily see, on good news with good flow rates a rise into the 400p to 600p range, or more. Certainly if flow rates are very good and also good comments on the upside of the structure due to the better than expected gross to net pay (confirmed 100%) and also the thicker nature of the pay zone than anticipated then it should be nearer the 600p than the 400p.

That may demonstrate just how much upside potential there is here....... XEL does not have the good or the bad news priced in - it remains presently floating in the never land of uncertainty but its floating higher as with each day that passes and each drilling op or completion op thats finished, the risk level lowers, but should good news come then by any metric and comparison to peers, a very solid re-rating upwards is going to happen, for what will become the 3rd largest independent operating in the North Sea in terms of "reserves".

My view, on good flow test and good upside is that XEL, with what will be proven reserves at that time, should be approaching a billion pounds valuation - and today its below 350 million. They have a lot of recoverable oil, and soon, all being well, it will be declared commercial and can be moved to being "booked reserves", and along with that comes the re-rating.

Where it goes past a billion pounds depends on the upsides and what is said...........and what happens down the line.

PROS - without having a serious dig at you, did you not also say that RKH should be north of 600p even on 140 mmbl?

giving the viscous nature of XEL's oil, i wonder what % of "reserves" are reckoned as truly recoverable ...... i suspect that by year end (at the latest) that XEL's sp will be higher than it is now, but by how much is a good question, as is the extent of the almost undoubted hefty profit-taking on the announcement re the flow test

600p less dilution from the placing would be about 400p, and its not far from there and if/when DES finally strike some oil it should be about there.

All figures so far have been very conservative and the company reckon they can recover more than you read in the broker notes/reports.

All in all, it should make a serious move upwards.

To me this is rather like RKH at 180p where so many were screaming they have sold and locked in profits and its overvalued...... only to be buying back again after yet another big move up, and then another and another.

I do not go for halves, I either believe the story or not, and if I believe I hold out for it and if not I sell it all.

Simple really.


I can either cross the road, or not. I do not walk half way out and then decide to go half back and then a bit forward and then 3 paces sideways.

i think you're probably right, though i certainly have no regrets at all in banking a large lump yesterday .... as i said, i still hold plenty, and i still think it more than likely that there will be some hefty, albeit short-lived profit-taking after the rns ..... that being the case, assuming the news is good, i'll jump in again

as for you, you silly bugger, you still don't seem to have woken up to the fact that a paper profit buys no shoes ..... it's fine being a smartarse while sp is rising, but you look damn stupid when it falls because the news is not quite as good as expected or similar

A superb share.

oil heading to $130 March.

this could rise 50% more.

It should rise about 150% on good news........

to follow on 454 ..... MATD was an excellent example of exactly that, wasn't it mitzy!

For one moment i thought you were talking to me then cynic :)) glad I still hold but will look very carefully before close of day.

BB .... remember i bought the last lump out of pure greed when i was already heavily o'weight ..... i (effectively) sold those at a damn good profit considering the timescale + a modest additional number ..... i remain o'weight at cost and heavily so at current sp level

To be fair, matd had the flow rate results and we knew there was no immeadiate drilling program ahead and so should have got out at 1.90 but as usual for me, hung on too long. Xel still waiting for what we hope are good result, can anyone say if they're drilling again straight away or will winter weather hold things up??

I've got a lovely pair of coconuts..lol.

a good selection of banana skins too i dare say .... sorry mitzy; a bit cruel i'm afraid, but i just wanted to make a point

Today we have good volume......buys out way the sells by double and no clues on level 2 but much better volume so it should motor.

I've bought a few more this morning...if it's rising ...buy more...the trend is for the sp to rise...so....on a good flow...and I think it should be a good result...300p...minimum....I was right about 2 kinds of oil discovered...just a guess, but that's what it seems they have discovered...super share...super company....

Quite a positive post from III......... :)


http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AXEL.L&threshold=10&it=le&action=detail&id=7165973


AmeriKnowHow - Lets Talk GROSS!!

My real concern is that Block 9/3b (now joined by 9/3c and 9/3d) is an Immature Asset.

I am a seller now (potentially) at 20 - This was my target for 2015.

My 2015 Target is now 40+

I had hoped to sit on my shares (1/2 in ISA - 1/2 Unwrapped) for the next 5yrs and then live on Dividends/Drawdown as part/all of my Pension Funding.


There are believed to be 900MMbbls OOIP in the Bentley Field - as of Today's Date.

That is for Bentley alone with the East Bentley Upside Case bringing 70MMbbls into this 900MMbbl Party.

Oilfields always grow with time and even with today's developing technology XEL can expect to extract WELL over 50% of this total standing on its Head.

The Bentley Field is a potentially Massive 1000MMbbls + Structure in its own right.

ADD - IN the Brunel Prospect (another Dornoch Structure)
ADD IN the West Jurassic and South East Jurassic
ADD -IN Blocks c and d.
(the Jurassics as part of the Viking Graben)

These Outstanding Prospects on Block 9/3b, 9/3c and 9/3dcould EASILY be expected to DOUBLE the 1000MMbbls in the Bentley Main Field.

So what are you going to SELL out for??

The Current GROSS Value of Bentley OOIP is:-

1000MMbbls / 148 Million Shares in Issue = 6.75 barrrels per Share

@ $69 per bbl x 6.75bbls/share = $466 per Share.

The Now DOUBLED Figure is $932 per share.

The Bentley Alliance are going to extract and market the Bentley Oil for a cost of $33/bbl throughout the lifetime of the field.

A discount of no more than 10% to Brent Crude will apply (probably nearer to7-8%)

Current Budgeted OPEX costs will be reduced by 5% with the use of the East Bentley Gas Cap.

A 20% reduction in North Sea Oil Taxes will apply.

Where else are you going to go the get such a MASSIVE return on your investment??
Why SELL - OUT now to some pathetic POXY operation like Statoil or BP?

Do you WANT to spend the next five years living with the very limited growth prospects offered by BP or Statoil shares??

That is CERTAINLY NOT what I want to Do!!!.

GLA/DYOR Oilf.