looks like its hit oil, don't know whats gonna happen, any idea's ???

Thanks Gerry. In view of the bargains that will surely arise from this period of selling, I think it's a safe bet that somehow right will be on one's side. Even if NOP goes ballistic and we turn out to regret our conservative approach, I think there'll be so much else out there going begging that we'll actually be quite pleased in the long run.

BTW as enthusiastic as I am about NOP I think the SP may have been destined to move sideways over the summer even without current events taking their toll. That's fine by itself, but in a bear market you have to play safe.

All IMO, WDIK, etc.

ST, I certainly agree. Have you any SEY. I feel there are exciting times ahead with SEY. Incidentally, it was pleasing to see CDL nudge ahead slightly after the recent falls.

Gerry

I have no SEY in the matter (what an awful pun!). Am perusing the thread regularly tho.

You may be right. EOG (Warrants) are worth a look too. Am thinking of waiting with my cash until the end of the summer. Got a lot going on right now besides the stock market, so it may be prudent for me to wait.

I like it! ha ha... Yes. I have decided not to place any new cash for the forseeable future. Talk to you later ST.

Gerry

I was thinking this earlier but didn't want to seem like a traitor too, but we have to follow a golden rule of not getting attached to stock, i'm switching to eoagw because it's near term prospects are better, there will still be upside on northern
when it starts production early next year and as it gradually increases output, albeit maybe less. Hellyeah!

Good stuff B.

Northern Petroleum PLC - Holding(s) in Company
For immediate release: 18 May 2006

Northern Petroleum Plc

('the Company')

Notification of Shareholding

The Board of Northern Petroleum Plc has today received notification from
Artemis Investment Management Limited that Artemis Special Situations is the
beneficial owner of 1,767,000 ordinary shares, which represents 3.28% of the
issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

There is a morning note from Panmure Gordon on NP website stating that, because of the dilution of stock, their target price has been reduced to 320p from 360p, and that NP dutch assets will be cashflow positive by 2008.

Any comments?

Fine by me - the reduction in the target price is natural following such a dilution. Obviously one would prefer to avoid the dilution altogether, but it's all in a day's work and at least the cash is being invested in a project that will bring positive cashflow, unlike in the case of some E&P co's which spend hundreds of millions funding unsuccessful exploration bids.

The gas-to-electric projects "should be operational by 2007" - not sure if that literally means that this will be up and running by Christmas, but it does indicate how far along we are with NOP going into a more serious rate of revenue generation. It may take a further year for this project to start banking profits, but if other good news is added along the way, then I see good potential for the SP and would continue to hold my remaining core holding, possibly adding once the broader market has settled down.

The analyst also added, "Extensive exploration upside exists with Northerns operatorship and 50% working interest in 21 Italian licences. We particularly like the potential in the assets obtained on the Italian/Tunisian border in the Mediterranean, which are on trend with the significant gas and oil fields of Algeria and Tunisia."

This augurs well for the medium term, IMO.

Good news from the Netherlands!! RNS out today:


Northern Petroleum PLC - Award of Production Licence & Reserve Upgrade
Embargoed for release: 0700 on 09 March 2006

Northern Petroleum Plc

('Northern' or the 'Company')

NORTHERN AWARDED PRODUCTION LICENCE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PAPEKOP OIL
FIELD WITH RESERVES OF 11.4 MILLION BOE NET TO NORTHERN

Northern is delighted to announce that NP Netherlands Limited, ('NPN'), a
wholly owned subsidiary, has been awarded a 25 year Production Licence for
Papekop from the Ministerie van Economische Zaken ('the Ministry') dated 7th
June 2006.

NPN has been informed that there will be a 40% State participation in the
licence, with NPN the holder of the remaining 60%. Such participation will be
on the basis of being a fully paying partner in all respects from licence
award, and payment of applicable back costs.

During the application process, further work has been undertaken and audited by
RPS Energy resulting in an upward revision of gross proven plus probable
recoverable reserves from those previously announced to 39.4 Bscf of gas and
12.2 million bbls of oil. (NPN's share is 23.7 Bscf and 7.3 million bbls of
oil). This is an increase of 1.5 million bbls of oil and brings the total
Netherlands reserves to 56 million boe. (14.2 million bbls and 242.6 Bscf).

Northern has also been advised that the Ministry has approved the transfer of
the Papekop Production Licence from NPN, the original applicant, to the
Company's wholly owned Dutch subsidiary, NP Netherlands B.V.

Derek Musgrove, MD of Northern, stated:

'It has been a process requiring a patient understanding of the Netherlands
regulations and laws.

We now embark upon an intense period of work to bring the Papekop field
on-stream. We can now confirm various contractual relationships which have
awaited this event and thank those that have given their full support during
what has often been a time of waiting.

We now go forward with financing in place from the recent placing of 20
million gross and the project finance facility of up to Euro 40 million
approved by the Credit Committee of Standard Bank Plc.'

In accordance with the AIM Rules - Guidance for Mining and Oil & Gas Companies,
the information contained in this announcement has been reviewed and signed off
by the Exploration Manager of Northern, Mr Graham Heard BSc (Hons), who has
over 30 years experience as a petroleum geologist. The reserve estimates
reported are based on the joint reserve and resource definitions of the Society
of Petroleum Engineers, the World Petroleum Congress and the American
Association of Petroleum Geologists.

This is good news, i hope the share price reaches it's justified value by christmas.
this market is frustrating.

I believe we will be pleasantly surprised with the share price by Xmas.

Embargoed for release: 0700 on 12 March 2006

Northern Petroleum Plc

("Northern" or the "Company")

Upgrade of Reserves - Weald Basin

Northern is delighted to announce the completion of a report commissioned by
the Company to re-examine some of the Group's Weald Basin assets to reflect a
$40/bbl oil price.

The report was carried out by Exploration Consultants Limited ("ECL"), a
leading independent reservoir engineering consultancy group, as a follow up to
their review completed last year which was announced by the Company on 4 May
2005.

The following results were obtained:-

Net Northern Reserves

Proved Proved +

Probable +

1.58MMstb * 4.51MMstb

The previously reported Weald Basin reserves were 1.27MMstb proved and
3.61MMstb proved plus probable.

Derek Musgrove, Managing Director of Northern commented:

"These further improvements in reserves are as a direct result of the increase
in commodity prices, which improve the economics and therefore enable more
reserves to be extracted profitably. I would add however that the report does
not cover all the leads and prospects within the Weald Basin that Northern is
working on.

The Avington-3 well, in which we have a 5% interest, is shortly to be tested
and we are planning, as operator, the drilling of two further Weald Basin wells
in which Northern holds a 50% interest. "

In accordance with the AIM Rules - Guidance for Mining and Oil & Gas Companies,
the information contained in this announcement has been reviewed and signed off
by the Exploration Manager of Northern, Mr Graham Heard BSc (Hons), who has
over 30 years experience as a petroleum geologist. The reserve estimates
reported are based on the joint reserve and resource definitions of the Society
of Petroleum Engineers, the World Petroleum Congress and the American
Association of Petroleum Geologists.

For further information please contact:

Northern Petroleum Plc

Derek Musgrove, Managing Director

Graham Heard, Exploration Manager

Tel: +44(0)20 7743 6080

Investec

Michael Ansell

Tel: +44(0)20 7597 5000

Panmure Gordon & Co

Katherine Roe

Tel: +44(0)20 7459 3600

Hansard Communications

Chris Roberts

Ben Simons

Tel. +44(0)20 7245 1100

Further information on Northern Petroleum Plc is available via our website,

www.northpet.com


* MMstb - millions of stock tank barrels of oil

There's a good article on Oilbarrel.com as well.

Lemme read it !!

Final results out today. No surprises, which is probably why the SP has dipped, but all in all the news is very encouraging, and if the market were not so nervous at the moment would probably be causing the SP to rise, IMO.


Here's an extract:

Northern Petroleum PLC - Final Results
Embargoed for release: 0700 on 19 June 2006


Northern Petroleum Plc

('Northern' or the 'Company')


Final Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2005

Highlights


On track to achieve gross field production levels of 1,000 bopd and 40MW of
electricity in the next eighteen months


Increase to 60.5 million barrels of oil equivalent in Proven + Probable
reserves


* Through a 19 million (net) fund raising and Standard Bank Plc Credit
Committee approval of project finance facility, the Group is now well
funded to finance the development of six oil and gas fields in the
Netherlands and other projects


* Built major position in Italy, No.2, after ENI/Agip, in permit area under
management with activities set to accelerate in 2006 on a number of
potentially 'company making' prospects


* New UK drilling programme in the Weald Basin


* Profitable sale of Spanish licences and production, with carried interest
retained


Chairman's Statement


I believe Northern Petroleum can now be considered a project rich company. We
are moving forward to develop two oil fields and four gas fields in The
Netherlands to secure what I like to think of as the cash engine for the future
development of our substantial project base of 49 licences and applications in
The Netherlands, the United Kingdom and Italy where we are second only to ENI/
Agip in terms of exploration area under our operations.


Following the award of the Papekop Production Licence on 7th June 2006 the
company's attributable proven plus probable reserves have now increased to 60.5
million barrels of oil equivalence ('boe').


Equal attention should be given to the exploration licence position obtained
through our agreements with Nederlandse Aardolie Maatschappij B.V. ('NAM')
which we anticipate will be supplemented with the success of our three licence
applications. This would create a position of 2,080km in what is the most
southerly part of the North Sea Gas Basin, or approximately 10 UKCS full sized
blocks, in which we have now mapped six prospects.


NAM will be drilling Steenwijk-1, a gas prospect with a gross target of 150-240
Bcf of gas in place in the eastern part of The Netherlands later this year. It
will be a farm-in well under the terms of an agreement with NAM through which
we will earn a 50% net profit interest.


We can now foresee the fulfilment of our ambitious strategy in Italy. When all
the licences are finally gazetted we will have established ourselves as the
second largest exploration company in Italy in terms of licensed area under
management. I ask you to note that most of the licences were selected and
applied for before the recent substantial increases in oil and gas prices. This
is the result of an aggressive strategy to acquire offshore and Po Valley
licences in prospective areas. I expect to provide more news on Italy as field
activity levels increase over the coming year.


Since the end of 2005 we have placed 15,384,616 shares to provide 19 million
net and the Credit Committee of Standard Bank Plc ('Standard Bank') have agreed
the terms of a project finance facility of up to Euro40 million, which will
together finance the cash generating base in the Netherlands and allow us to
move forward in Italy. In the competitive environment driven by higher oil and
gas prices, I am delighted to have succeeded in attracting the highly
experienced staff necessary to manage and execute our ambitions.


It is always a hard decision to sell producing assets but the sale of our
assets in Spain was undertaken to enable our re-deployment into the
Netherlands. This decision was, I believe, correctly taken on the grounds of
the materiality of the added value potential in return for the financial and
human resources deployed. We wish much success to the buyers, particularly as
Northern has retained a 1.25% gross overriding royalty over the three
exploration licences. We also have gained valuable experience during our period
of tenure in Spain and realised a profit on sale of 419,000.


In the South of England activity now moves forward to the Weald Basin where
attributed proven reserves have increased and an appraisal well and one
prospect have been selected for drilling in the next year. One site is the
mapped extension of a producing oil field on a licence in which we hold a 50%
interest. The drilling on the Isle of Wight last year was disappointing for our
hopes in the Wessex Basin. We have absorbed the good points arising from sand
prediction in Bouldnor Copse-1 and issues arising from now presumed
bio-degraded oil at Sandhills. We have also taken note and are proud of the
rapid improvement of drilling cost performance at Bouldnor Copse-1. In the
shorter term the currently suspended Avington-3 well, in which we have a 5%
interest, is to be tested.


Whilst we should all take pleasure in the reporting of the significant proven
plus probable reserve position of 60.5 million boe and look forward to placing
the six fields onshore Netherlands in production, the real significance will be
demonstrated as we build yet further on this income base to develop the
projects that we already have in-hand in what would otherwise be a highly
competitive market.


On the wider front we have been reported as having been recognised by Hemscott
as the best performing Exploration and Production Company on AIM in terms of
total shareholder returns over the three years to 9th May 2006, just before the
subsequent change in market conditions. This progress has been made possible by
the huge efforts over that period of the executive directors, staff and
consultants. I also wish to acknowledge the support of Standard Bank and our
new stockbrokers Investec Securities ('Investec') and Panmure Gordon & Co., who
are achieving an ever wider recognition of Northern throughout the British and
Netherlands financial communities. Of necessity John East & Partners have
passed the role of Nominated Financial Advisor to Investec. They deserve the
thanks of both the Board of Directors and shareholders.

ST, i calculated 1000 bopd at 60 pounds pb0e and the gross revenue came to 16.5 million 19.5 pence per share. On ten times p/e ratio thats 195p.

Of course there is a profit share, but Northern aims to up production to 7000 bopde
eventually which is 7 times 195p on a 10 times ratio.
Take away costs tax and profit share i agree with michael walters that he thinks Northerns medium term worth is 400p per share at least.
We are just in a frustrating market and have to be patient.

Barclay why use 60 pounds pboe?

Barclay, you might need to show me your working before I could agree with those figures (and I agree with Rutherford that one does have to remember to convert US$ to Sterling at some point!). Don't forget that "earnings" in the price/earnings ratio is the expression of profits per share, not turnover.

From 1,000 boepd at US$60 per barrel, I can't find more than about 80p per share at a P/E of 15, and that's using some fairly wild assumptions about profit margins.

Northern is more than likely worth 400p per share, given time, but it'll take more than a couple of thousand bopd to get it there.

All IMO, etc.

I used 60dboe because current world events could see oil going to this price in
the short term, i could l go lower, but because oil production has peaked i thought this long term figure was reasonable.

I multiplied 1000 bopde by 60dollars (sorry my mistake using pounds)
I then used a 5 day week to multiply by this figure, (it could be seven which would change the figures a lot) and then by 52 weeks

this came to 16600000 turnover, because i dont know the exact costs and profit
share i should have halved this amount and divided it by the current market cap which gave 19.5cents, half of 19.5cents per share 9.75 which on p/e ten gives 97.5, but northern will be aiming to do 7000bopde by 2008
so all things being equal 7 times 9.75 = 6.825 dollars=3.61p

Thats on a lower oil price and the figures are very rough and the oil price could be 80 dollars by then, i just thought i'd try to cheer everybody up!

Thanks Barclay - we're cheered :o)

I think you can probably use a seven-day week for the calculation of oil output, as the nodding donkey doesn't get weekends off! I usually use a 360-day year, which is an old habit picked up from how banks calculate interest in certain currencies.