http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/26526/rockhopper-shares-rocket-as-the-latest-drill-result-underlines-sea-lions-potential--26526.html
Rockhopper shares rocket as the latest drill result underlines Sea Lion's potential
Shares in Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) shot up by a third after the Falkland Islands explorer said its latest well had discovered a significant column of oil which has increased the companys confidence in the commerciality of the Sea Lion Field.
Well 14/10-4 uncovered 33 metres of net pay in what it describes as a good quality reservoir package with 20 per cent average porosity. It was drilled to a depth of 2,801 metres, finding the oil-water contact level at 2,477 metres.
Rockhopper has announced a successful appraisal of the Sea Lion discovery which should significantly increase the P90 estimate and overall confidence in the discovery proving commercial, said David Farrell, oil and gas analyst at Evolution Securities.
After a period of unsuccessful exploration wells in the Falkland Islands todays news could well ignite renewed investor appetite.
And so it was as the shares climbed 70 pence to 287 pence in a frenetic early session of trade.
The well was spudded in last month and lies just over 2 kilometres away from 14/10-2 discovery well. It is designed investigate just how deep the reservoir is.
The top Sea Lion reservoir sands were encountered 66 metres downdip from the 14/10-2 discovery well.
A total reservoir package of 107 metres was drilled, comprising four main sands with a net to gross of 76 per cent.
Rockhopper said 30 metres of net pay was encountered in the upper of the four sands, representing the main Sea Lion southern fan. It means the gross oil column now proven in this southern fan is 104 metres.
Chief executive Sam Moody said: "Following this positive result we believe Sea Lion is highly likely to prove commercially viable.
The well has confirmed our ability to identify good reservoir units on the seismic in our acreage with the sands coming in very close to prognosis.
We can now continue to appraise the Sea Lion discovery and to explore additional prospectivity within our acreage with added confidence."
Evolution said todays news adds 50 pence a share to the Rockhoppers core risked net asset value which rises to 617 pence a share. Farrells price target moves to 450 pence a share price from 400 pence.
Fox Davies analyst Lionel Therond is a little more aggressive with a 500 pence valuation.
He said of todays announcement: Even though net pay was a little lower than that in the discovery well, we view the thick development of good quality sands providing plenty of upside both updip in the northern fan, here intersected in the water leg, and downdip in a potential additional oil column.
Clearly the Sea Lion fan complex needs a few more appraisal wells before being fully unraveled.
However the results of this latest well are very positive.
The company has indicated a probable increase of P90, effectively de-risking a commercial development.
We would also anticipate a higher P50 estimate with a lower risk attached, increasing the value of the asset. We are keeping forecasts unchanged for now.
In May 2010 the original Sea Lion well put the North Falkland basin on the map as a credible new oil frontier.
Rockhopper subsequently set the discoverys recoverable resource estimate at 242 million barrels.
The result lit the blue-touch paper under a group of explorers with assets in the region - Rockhopper, Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) and Argos Resources (LON:ARG).
However efforts to build on this initial oil discovery have resulted in something of a riddle for the companies as well as top analysts in the Square Mile.
Last month its second well, 14/10-3, was drilled to 2,830 metres - 8 kilometres away from the original Sea Lion discovery well - and it hit four separate reservoir section with 64 gross metres of good quality reservoirs.
Oil and gas shows were detected throughout drilling and live oil was recovered to surface, however on further testing three of the four reservoirs were found to have high water saturation (above 90 percent).
Meanwhile in the remaining reservoir Rockhopper recovered samples via a mini drill stem test (DST) - with 20 percent live oil, which is indicated to be medium gravity.
This reservoir, referred to as Sand 3, had 64 percent water saturation. Although Rockhopper described the results as encouraging the fell short of expectations and the shares tumbled.
Todays results appear to have reinvigorated interest in the story and restored faith in the Falklands as a potential new frontier.