looking at the sp Inchcape appears to have withstood the big fall in sp. down c.50% since Aug07 - the start of the Credit Crunch . . . . .

By comparison look at INCH and PDG (Pendragon) - from abouit 2005/6 they are somewhat similar (ignore noise!) and then at Aug07 the charts change - such that Pendragon is now about 80% down.

Why has Inchcape fared so much better?

They claim they are "independent" - but I can't imagine this means they are not tied to the Manufacturers - otherwise they won't get the best discounts, will they?

So when will INCH suffer similar falls....?

Can't say I'm impressed by Inchcape's website - far too strong on investor relations...which really means no information at all.....where are the Best Car-Deals?

EDIT (12Nov08), some Director-buying boosted this to 78p, but it slipped back on Media News that car sales are dire (and Retail!), so I suppose no-one expect this to improve for another year - 50p someone?
(Last month Dir-Buy was minute - 7k which wouldn't buy a Dir-car....oops!)

Gets a buy rating from Investor Inteligence today -

Inchcape - Surged through the 200-day MA and the 20p sideways resistance. New long-term relative highs established. Buy.

"

We add a long in Inchcape on its stunning breakout.

" Inchcape will announce its Interim Results on 29th July 2009."
Sp seems to be building in better than expected results. May be a case of 'buy on rumour, sell on fact'?

Business Financial Newswire
"Auto trader Inchcape said it increased share in most markets in the half-year to end-June. However, sales of 2.8bn (2008: 3.3bn), were down 22.9% in constant currency terms and profit before tax fell to 47m from 130.3m the previous year.

Reported earnings per share were 0.7p, compared to 3.5p in 2008.

The group said it showed a significant like for like cost reduction of 13% and a reduction in net debt to 28m, down from 408m at year end.

Inchape reported strong operating cash flow generation of 217m, following net proceeds of 234m from is successful Rights Issue. "

Inchcape upgraded to buy from hold at Panmure Gordon, target price rising to 29p from 25p - 29.07.09
Business Financial Newswire
Inchcape has delivered better than expected first half, says broker. Its recovery strategy has some momentum, particularly in the UK, Australia and Singapore.

Increases forecasts through to 2011E. For 2009E adjusted PBT moves from 67.8m to 85.0m with new EPS of 1.0p, and in 2010E PBT of 75.7m moves to 98.0m with new EPS of 1.3p.

For 2011E, 'where we would expect recovery to really gather momentum', previous PBT of 87.1m moves to 120m."

A lot of Brokers getting behind this one now and 2 new BUYS yesterday...

Inchcape PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

SG Securities
05-08-09 BUY 1.82 2.08

Panmure Gordon
05-08-09 BUY 84.97 1.12 98.04 1.54

Numis Securities Ltd
03-08-09 HOLD 102.60 1.30 112.60 1.50

Arden Partners
03-08-09 ADD 111.00 1.80 115.00 1.60

Nomura Research Institute
31-07-09 BUY 107.40 1.77 114.00 1.64

Charles Stanley
31-07-09 HOLD 95.00 1.30 122.00 1.40 0.20

Investec Securities
28-07-09 HOLD 93.01 1.16 99.01 1.14

Brewin Dolphin Investment Banking
26-06-09 HOLD 85.00 1.10

2009 2010
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 97.08 1.26 113.87 1.54 0.10

1 Month Change 5.80 0.14 11.93 0.21 0.10
3 Month Change 32.76 0.52 33.22 0.62 0.10


GROWTH
2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

Norm. EPS -15.59% -74.70% 22.22%
DPS 4.66% % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS

2008 (A) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)

EBITDA 295.60m 169.72m 171.72m

EBIT 236.20m 146.50m 173.80m

Dividend Yield 9.58% % 0.35%

Dividend Cover 1.84x x 15.40x

PER 5.67x 22.41x 18.34x

PEG -0.36f -0.30f 0.82f

Net Asset Value PS 15.93p 29.00p 27.00p

Cars sales bounce as scrappage kicks in
Date: Thursday 06 Aug 2009

Car sales rose in July for the first time in a year as buyers took advantage of the governments scrappage scheme.

UK car sales rose by 2.4% in July compared with last year, according to the industry trade body the Society of Motor Manufacturers. It is the first rise is sales since April last year.

New car sales totalled 157,149 in July, with roughly 33,000 of those sold through the scrappage scheme. That scheme total is double the amount sold under the scheme in June.

Sales this year are still very depressed even with the boost from the scrappage scheme. Totals are down 22.8% on the same period last year the SSMT said, even though July's sales were 10.4% higher than the SMMT's forecast for the month.

Sales were 10.1% lower than the July average between 1999 and 2008 of 174,879. Registrations to private buyers rose 33.4% in July to 77,911, but fleet purchases were down 18% at 72,014.

The Ford Fiesta remained the best-selling car in July but BMWs Mini seems to be the main beneficiary of the scrappage scheme as its sales trebled in July from this time last year.

"The impact of the scrappage scheme is clear and we are encouraged by the impact it has had, increasing new car registrations for the first time since April 2008," said Paul Everitt, SMMT chief executive.

However, the concern now is what might happen when the money for scheme runs out. New car buyers currently get a 2,000 incentive if they scrap a registered before 31 August 1999 to buy a new car. Half of the money is paid by the government and half by the car industry.

But the SSMT estimates the cash for the scheme could run out in October or early November.

Today is on the TURN from retracement

Turning with the FTSE and at the same time bouncing from the support as Indicators have reached oversold

Moving up nicely today, looks like the uptrend as started again.

Good movement UP today and the MACD is looking good as is ready for Covergence ( blue line crossing up red ) plus almost crossing 0

UK car sales rise 11.4 pct yy in Sept - SMMT

LONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - New car sales in Britain rose an annual 11.4 percent in September, their third consecutive rise, helped by a government incentive scheme, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said on Tuesday.

The industry body said there were 367,929 cars sold.

The government introduced a scrappage scheme earlier this year which gives drivers 2,000 pounds ($3,185) to trade in cars more than 10 years old against a more fuel-efficient newer model.

The government announced a 100 million pound extension to the scheme last week to include an additional 100,000 vehicles. The scheme is co-funded by the car industry.

The 300 million pounds originally allotted for the scheme was set to run out before the scheduled end of the programme next February, the SMMT said.

"The extension of the scheme will help to sustain demand through the latter part of this year and into 2010," said Paul Everitt, SMMT chief executive.

"This will allow economic recovery to strengthen and safeguard valuable industrial capability."

From Brokers recommendations, 2 buys and a hold over the past 2 days rather bullish I would say.....

Inchcape PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
13-10-09 BUY 105.93 1.64 118.56 1.77

SG Securities
12-10-09 BUY 1.82 2.08

Numis Securities Ltd
12-10-09 HOLD 103.00 1.30 113.00 1.50

Inchcape looks to have sprung back to life over the last few days after a period of sideways consolidation over the last few weeks.

The chart looks very bullish.....

From RNS today......

OUTLOOK

Our Group financial performance for the full year is expected to be significantly ahead of previous expectations..........

Says it all really.

Brokers starting to respond to todays upbeat outlook.... 42p target.....

20-Oct-09 Inchcape INCH Panmure Gordon Buy 35.17p 42.00p - Reiteration

have just bought some of these have missed a lot of upside but still think there is further to go, took my eye off the ball, concentrating on oillies.

I was looking at these when they were 28p ,only noticed today what was happening ,,trouble is i put so much on watchlists i dont know whether i'm coming or going... However after the compny statement and broker rec's i may see if there is a small pullback this week and try to buy a few.

Hurry up Jimmy.

Interesting to note how Brokers have slapped BUY recos on inch over the past couple of days, very bullish i reckon.......

Inchcape PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Nomura Research Institute
20-10-09 BUY 140.10 2.43 148.20 2.25 0.90

Numis Securities Ltd
20-10-09 HOLD 140.10 2.40 150.20 2.30

Panmure Gordon [A]
20-10-09 BUY 105.93 1.64 118.56 1.77

Investec Securities [A]
19-10-09 BUY 120.01 1.95 120.00 1.69

SG Securities [A]
19-10-09 BUY 1.82 2.08

execdir/finace director buys on 22 @33 something

AFTER THIS MORNING SPIKE TO 33.50p

Moving forward again as order book/level 2 has 12 extra trades at bid side

From Equity movers.......... INCHCAPE (LSE)

Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM		Hold
Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator	Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel	Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands		Hold
Short Term Indicators Average:	80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 27294375
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index		Hold
50 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price	Buy
Medium Term Indicators Average:	75% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 25712863
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index		Hold
100 Day Moving Average vs Price	Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator	Buy
Long Term Indicators Average:	67% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 25717621
Overall Average:	72% - Buy
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance 33.4000 29.8200 32.5900 35.3600