http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Hayward Says Completed Pipeline Turning Point for Kurdistan
By Brian Swint - Oct 25, 2013 10:00 AM GMT

Facebook Share
Tweet
LinkedIn
Google +1
COMMENTS
Print
QUEUE

Tony Hayward, the former BP Plc chief executive officer who now heads Kurdistan’s largest oil producer, said an export pipeline to Turkey is built, marking a turning point for the self-governing region of northern Iraq.

“The Kurdistan Regional Government has completed a 36-inch pipeline,” Hayward, CEO of Genel Energy Plc, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “The line has now been tied in and commissioning is taking place. This is a major inflection point for Kurdistan.”

Kurdistan, whose economy has boomed with oil exploration since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, estimates its reserves at 45 billion barrels, enough to meet U.S. needs for almost seven years. The new pipeline provides unhindered access to international markets for the first time after years of disputes with the government in Baghdad over export revenue.

While Hayward said Genel is already sending about 50,000 barrels of oil a day on trucks to Turkey, where it receives higher prices than in the domestic market, the pipeline will have capacity of about 300,000 barrels a day.

Genel shares reversed earlier losses, to gain as much as 0.8 percent. The stock traded at 973 pence as of 9:53 a.m. in London. DNO International ASA, a Norwegian producer in the region, climbed as much as 1.3 percent to 16.18 kroner in Oslo.

The Kurdistan pipeline joins Iraq’s main export pipeline to Turkey after a Baghdad-controlled metering station, Hayward said. That will give the Kurds full control, bypassing the federal government.
Track Record

The pipeline will become operational by the end of the year, Ashti Hawrami, the KRG minister of natural resources, said on Oct. 3. The KRG signed a deal in April to sell oil and gas directly to Turkey. Turkey also set up a state oil company that has taken stakes in Kurdish oilfields, Hayward said.

“There are always risks, but you have to look at the track record of delivery,” Hayward said. “That gives me confidence that the agreement between Turkey and the Kurdistan region is being followed through.”

The KRG halted crude exports through the government-run link in December amid disputes with the Oil Ministry in Baghdad over revenue from crude sales and payments owed to companies such as DNO and Genel. Hawrami said that the region will export 1 million barrels a day by 2015 and 2 million barrels a day by 2019.

mistyhodag
25 Oct'13 - 12:27 - 322209 of 322243 2 0

Fang - not sure what you are suggesting. Of course they were 'pushed'. They weren't going to be re-elected. My comments are in response to posters suggesting that the supporters of the so called M&G4 are responsible, and that, more importantly, the removal of the two middle eastern representatives of a company who's activities are all in the middle east (to paraphrase a certain poster) is somehow a mistake.
My post attempts to differentiate the roles of 'directors' and any other class of servant to the company (if you see what I mean by the term, 'servant').
I only post because of the the misinformation I perceive, from certain posters.
If I may continue along that line, I am surprised at the vitriol towards Anastasia.
The undoubted problems are not, IMO, her fault. She is an intelligent woman who is doing her best. I do not know exactly where she sits in the organisation, but she seems to have a direct line to TK. That is the problem.
I would find it more sensible to have either the Finance Director, Company Secretary, or someone such as Tony Peart ( Legal and Commercial) with principal responsibility. That said, given the experiences to date, I would also expect much closer involvement/supervision of the company's PR and IR by external Advisors.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-25/hayward-says-completed-pipeline-turning-point-for-kurdistan.html

C&Ped,trusted Pi.


Sorry, I was just really busy doing other stuff...There is no conspiracy.

She says she`s just got back from Erbil and sounded quite upbeat for her. Trouble is i was jumping about going back to missed targets etc especially when talking about the spur and the reserves figure. So I apologise if I cause any confusion or have something totally wrong- it is not my intention.....

*Production rate: She suggested this would be in next weeks IP(investor presentation update) It will increase towards the end of the year and when SH-4 flow-lines connected.

*SH-7 depth, hows it going : `Fine` but update as above next weeks in IP

*Final Judgement: Still waiting to hear from the Courts etc

*Why No Booked reserves: Long rambling answer- Reserves with CPR prior to main listing at end of year. `Why non already?` ...she said they were NOT in possession of a figure-I really pushed her on this and she said they really weren`t hiding anything. I said they really must have an idea, why hadn`t they released a figure/ was it because the figure was so low that the disconnect with OIP would unhinge the market- She said no. But she said GKP would have to fully explain the various figures and how they would likely increase as production and their understanding of the reservoirs improved over time, when they were finally issued. I asked her about the 2.25bn fig in various old presentations but can`t remember what she said...Something along the lines of a guide.

*Question on missed targets...Long rambling answer about it being a high risk investment and how operationally things have been basically very good WRT to where they geopolitically etc blah blah as before. I pointed out that the SP hadn`t reflected this operational `quality`. She took on board the missed targets wrt main listing. I said it was why folk were becoming mistrustful because of the missed targets.

*Question on IR: She wanted the website to have all the answers eventually...They are going to report quarterly and then update the IP on the website. Same answer as others have had about time taken answering queeries from PIs.

* Was the KRG holding any GKP news back, in any way: No, nothing delayed by the KRG.

* Spur and `Woods note` saying complete in 2015. Again a long rambling answer. I am very aware I can cause confusion here as I don`t fully understand- So this is ALL in my opinion (as is all of it ...but you know what I mean)...... Right,. the pipeline spur can be finished `quite quickly`. However, blending and pumping stations will not be operational til 2015-Ie when built. It is being built by a separate contractor organised by the MNR. So basically the Export option by pipeline for GKP will be in 2015.. In the mean time GKP will truck. I am presuming to local refineries as now? She also said other operators would be affected by this as pipeline so couldn`t operate at large amount unless it has a pumping station...So Genel? But presumably can operate at much lower rate.

*PF-2: Physically built and awaiting flow lines to be connected/built. Think she said update in IP.



All in my opinion and DYOR etc.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/launch-of-convertible-bonds-tap-issue/201310300704187218R/

Cantor note today:
"Gulf Keystone Petroleum (BUY) – $50m bond issue.
GKP has announced it will be issuing a further $50m convertible bonds on the same terms as the $275m October 2012 offering (6.25% coupon, due October 2017) by way of institutional private placement. Whilst the company’s cash position is relatively strong at $72.3m, the funds raised via the offering will enhance its cash position further as it seeks to complete its ongoing transition to the short-term production target of 40,000bopd from Shaikan. Management has confirmed that following completion of the offering, excluding any cash generated from the sale of oil, the company expects to have cash resources to fund its operations at least through to the middle of 2014.

Operationally, GKP is therefore on the verge of moving into a phase of significant production, with the capacity to produce up to 40,000bopd from Shaikan in the medium term and up to 400,000bopd in the coming years. If achieved, the company would therefore be a key contributor in meeting the KRG’s oil production targets of 1mbopd in 2015 and 2mbopd by 2019. Our model assumes that GKP will reach 20,000bopd in 2014 and 40,000bopd in 2016, which if sold into the export market, would represent a transformational milestone for the company, in our view. The share price has seen material gains since (+31%) our last published note (“Political issues weigh heavily on shares”), 18th June 2013 following a positive resolution with M&G and a conclusion to the legal dispute with Excalibur, but the addition of more convertible bonds invariably adds to volatility to the share price. Following the placement in October 2012 the stock fell 17% over the following week. Nevertheless, in our view the underlying fundamentals of the company remain robust and we retain our BUY recommendation and TP of 235p."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/iraqi-kurds-may-build-direct-oil-export-pipeline-in-18-months.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/31/mol-discovery-idUSB3N0GF01T20131031


BUDAPEST | Thu Oct 31, 2013 1:00pm EDT
Oct 31 (Reuters) - Hungarian oil and gas group MOL said on Thursday its wholly-owned subsidiary Kalegran Ltd. officially declared the Akri-Bijeel Block in the Kurdistan region of Iraq commercial based on discoveries made at two oil wells.
MOL is accelerating its work programme, employing additional rigs and planning to submit a field development plan for the whole block by the end of 2014, it said in a statement on the website of the Budapest Stock Exchange. (www.bse.hu)

"MOL is pleased to announce commerciality on the Akri-Bijeel block after recent successful long term tests in our Bakrman discovery," the statement cited Alexander Dodds, Executive Vice President for Upstream as saying.

Contractors on the block are Kalegran and Gulf Keystone Petroleum International Limited.

http://ir.mol.hu/en/commercial-discovery-declaration-and-acceleration-work-program-akri-bijeel-block/
Alexander Dodds, Executive Vice President for Upstream commented: ”MOL is pleased to announce commerciality on the Akri-Bijeel block after recent successful long term tests in our Bakrman discovery. Meanwhile, in the Bijell area we identified the potential to accelerate the work program and increase the number of rigs in order to finalize the appraisal activity as soon as possible and maximize EWT production during 2014. This declaration is another milestone in the fruitful relationship with KRG which covers not only the lucrative cooperation in the oil and gas industry, but also a wider area in supporting the development of local communities. ”


Operational details:

Bakrman field:
Following our announced discovery in the Triassic Kurra Chine B formation in the Bakrman-1 exploration well in February, a longer term, 24 days production test (MD 3,930– 4,100 m) was concluded from 25 July until 26 of August 2013. Test results confirmed light oil and sour gas saturation with maximal oil production level around 3,192 bbl/d and 10,19 MMscf/d of gas on 64/64” choke size.

After completing Triassic EWT, Bakrman-1 sidetrack was drilled targeting Jurassic reservoir in updip position. Jurassic target was drilled 236m higher compared to vertical well. Reservoir was tested in interval 1936 – 2000 mMD, no inflow was obtained and only traces of bitumen and heavy oil were recovered. The well is temporary suspended as future Triassic producer.

Kurra Chine B formation Discovery is subject to Appraisal Work Program which has been started with a 3D seismic acquisition fully folding the Bakrman structure.

At current stage we plan to drill 2 appraisal wells and deploy an Early Production Facility already in 2015 in order to commence early oil production.

Further wells in the Work Program target Jurassic reservoirs as well, currently as an upside potential.


Bijell field:
Bijell Extended Well Test ("EWT") surface facility construction and commissioning was finished. Total gross capacity of the EWT facility is 10,000 boepd in phase-1, while storage tanks have 30,000 boe capacity. Under current technical conditions, it is subservient to deviate the well to exclude or minimize the water inflow and increase the oil productivity.Bijell-1B sidetrack drilling, testing and completion to be finished in Q1 2014.

Drilling of Bijell-7 appraisal well was finished at total depth of 5,050 m at end of June, drilled 10 km to the south-south-east of the Bijell‑1 discovery well. Jurassic reservoir section found tight during the vertical drilling. It was followed by a highly deviated sidetrack which confirmed oil saturation, however, the reservoir was poorly fractured and was not capable of flowing naturally even after stimulation.

Bijell-2 well was spud on 13 March 2013, currently drilling the upper Jurassic section. Planned TD is 5330m, will be tested in Q1 2014.

Further steps aiming at the completion of the appraisal program including the drilling and testing of Bijell-4 & -6 by Q3 2014 in case of both wells. A full coverage 3D seismic will be available for the Bijell area in November 2013.

Early oil production could be resumed from Bijell-1B in Q1 2014, subsequently adding B-2, B-4 and B-6 on stream by the Q3 2014. Expected EPF plateau of 10,000 bbl of oil could be achieved by the end 2014.

AB confirmed by GKP.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/akri-bijeel-block-declared-commercial/201311010700129409R/

Http://ir.mol.hu/en/commercial-discovery-declaration-and-acceleration-work-program-akri-bijeel-block/

Based on the Cantor note, following the convertible bond issue, a very rough calculation would put the sp at about 150p. No date for the new bond issue, that I can find.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/update-on-excalibur-litigation/201311110700126377S/



11 November 2013







Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)



("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")



Update on Excalibur litigation and proposed move to the Main Market



On 10 September 2013 the English Commercial Court provided a summary of its decision to dismiss all of the claims asserted by Excalibur Ventures LLC ("Excalibur") against the Company, its two subsidiaries and Texas Keystone Inc. (together the "Defendants") and decided all issues in favour of the Defendants.



The Company today confirms that the English Commercial Court has set 10.30am on 13 December 2013 as the date for both the handing down of its full judgment (the "Judgment") and the hearing of consequential matters, including the costs of the litigation and any application that may be made by Excalibur for permission to appeal the Judgment.



The Company believes that clarity in the Excalibur litigation process is important for the move-up to the Main Market of the LSE. In view of the date for the handing down of the Judgment and Excalibur's right to apply for permission to appeal at the Hearing, (or to the Court of Appeal if the English Commercial Court refuse permission to appeal), the board of Gulf Keystone expects conclusion of the proposed admission to trading on the Main Market to be as soon as practicable in 2014.



Further announcements will be made as appropriate.

looks like a bit of a silly market reaction to the above so arguably a point at which to buy, even if only as a quick trade

sp 156p down 5%, time to buy?

A sobering note from Wood & Co from a few weeks ago:
"We see material downside risk (in a no-M&A scenario) in Shaikan development as GKP continues to disappoint operationally missing both its own guidance and our more conservative expectations. In our view, in a no-deal case, Gulf Keystone may not be able to execute fast-track development of the Shaikan field: i) low quality of the crude makes it barely marketable on the domestic market in the KRI; ii) export infrastructure is not expected to become available before 2015, which materially lowers our production expectations for the next three-to-four years.
We believe that heavy FDP commitments and huge funding gap over the next three years may cast a pall over the share price in the near term. Nevertheless, GKP remains one of the most appealing takeover candidates in the region, in our view. Yet, elevated political risks and geologically challenging Akri-Bijeel field in GKP’s portfolio may delay M&A until we see a decision from the KRG on exports reopening and/or Akri-Bijeel stake sell-down. Overall, sizeable risks and stock performance of over 20% since our initiation in July 2013 makes us take a more conservative stance on GKP’s investment case.
Shaikan’s production severely constrained. The field was sealed for over a month in September-October. In our view, Shaikan’s heavy oil is struggling to find a market in the KRI, as the company was selling to only one customer during the production period at heavily discounted prices, averaging at USD 43/bbl.
Export infrastructure remains out of reach. GKP now expects the export pipeline for Shaikan only in 2015. The timing of completion of the dedicated Shaikan heavy oil exports pipeline (which is crucial, in our view, to monetise the field) remains unknown.
Takeover expectations revive after a court victory. GKP is seen as one of the most appealing takeover candidates in the KRI. We see GBp 191-325/sh takeover bid range @ 13.5% WACC. Prevailing political risks, however, may significantly delay M&A activity in the KRI.
We see over USD 600m funding gap in 2014-16 which may force GKP to go for potentially dilutive financing. GKP has an extensive development programme on the Shaikan block, which in our view will require over USD 600m in additional funding for the company. The planned listing on the LSE Main Market may provide access to new money, but it may still not be possible to cover GKP’s financing needs with non-dilutive sources.
We see the value of the on-trend blocks (Shaikan, Sheikh Adi, Akri-Bijeel and Ber Bahr) as ranging between USD 1.89-2.28 per barrel, implying core NAV of GBp 191/share. Embedding the heavily risked upside from the E&A portfolio and accounting for the cash pile, we arrive at our GBp 191/sh PT."

Purchased another future today..

http://mobile.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-14/2014-outlook-kurdistans-oil-ambitions



Kurdistan, the self-governing region of northern Iraq, is poised to realize a gusher in revenue from its oil fields. Estimated reserves of about 45 billion barrels of crude have piqued the interest of several of the world’s largest oil companies. Although getting crude out of the country has until now been a challenge, the opening of a pipeline into Turkey at the start of 2014 will make it significantly easier to get the oil to markets. “We’re looking at multibillion barrels,” says Dougie Youngson, an analyst at VSA Capital in London. “The operators are sitting on huge resources that they want to start commercializing.”

Once it gets going, the pipeline, built and owned by the Kurdistan Regional Government, could result in exports of about 400,000 barrels of oil annually, according to the government. The output will jump to 1 million barrels a year by 2015, and 2 million barrels by 2019, says Ashti Hawrami, Kurdistan’s minister of natural resources. Such estimates have prompted ExxonMobil, Total, Chevron, and Gazprom to sign exploration agreements with the government. If it were a country, Kurdistan would rank 10th among the largest oil-holding sovereigns in the world. It produces about 200,000 barrels per day, with 50,000 of that exported to Turkey by truck. Southern Iraq’s oil fields pump out about 3 million barrels per day.

The substantial reserves will help meet increasing global demand at a time when three of the largest producers—Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia—are closed to many Western oil companies. “Iraq is the only country in the world where you can put a pipe in the ground and the oil starts flowing,” says Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency. “It’s the last easy oil.”

Kurdistan’s oil fields do have their political complications. Exxon and Total—both active in southern Iraq—face increased tensions with the central government in Baghdad given a long-standing dispute between Iraq and the Kurds over control of the northern oil fields and export revenue. In September, Hussain al-Shahristani, Iraq’s deputy prime minister for energy affairs, called Exxon’s intention to explore in the region a “serious error.”

But the upside of easy oil outweighs the risks of upsetting Baghdad, for large and smaller producers alike. “This is transformational for both Kurdistan and Genel,” says Tony Hayward, the former chief executive officer of BP who was appointed CEO of Genel in November 2011. The Turkish company is one of two foreign explorers, along with Norway’s DNO International, operating in Kurdistan and trucking out its exports. The pipeline, Hayward says, will give Kurdistan greater control over its exports and access to more markets. “For us,” he adds, “not only will we get higher realizations, we’ll get much greater volumes. It allows us to unleash the capacity we already have and to build a lot mor

The Energy Minister Taner Yildiz told reporters in Ankara that “The system we will establish will certainly help resolve the dispute between the Kurdish regional government and the central government.”

Iraq’s federal government in Baghdad and autonomous Kurdistan have long been divided over how to split energy revenue, which has paralysed development of new oil and gas projects in the region. Energy-hungry Turkey is keen on seeing progress on the issue to satisfy its growing energy needs.

Yildiz also said “Ankara has suggested it can serve as an independent intermediary by having oil revenues deposited into an escrow account at a Turkish state bank. Both Baghdad and Kurdistan would have full information on funds in the account and would decide between themselves on the percentage of revenue to be paid to each,” noting that ” I discussed the proposal with Hussein al-Shihristani, Iraq’s deputy prime minister responsible for energy affairs, during a visit to South Korea last month.”

“Baghdad wasn’t sure what type of system it wanted, adding that “energy should be used as an instrument for peace, not tension,” pointing out, Asked about US response to the Turkish proposal for mediation, Yildiz said: “I am of the opinion that the formula we have developed will be approved. The more this pipeline operates at full capacity, the more revenues Iraq will receive.”

Turkey is planning to increase use of the existing pipeline more active and wants to add additional oil and gas pipelines along the route.

Read more: hxxp://www.iraqinews.com/baghdad-politics/turkey-proposes-to-mediate-long-running-dispute-between-baghdad-kurdistan-region-over-dividing-oil-revenue/#ixzz2koIkQFIO
Follow us: @IraqiNews_com on Twitter | IraqNews on Facebook

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/16/us-turkey-kurdistan-idUSBRE9AF05L20131116?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=992637
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Clearly the completion of the 1st pipeline is focusing minds.

A worthwhile listen when time permits.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-kurdish-crescent-new-trends-in-syria-turkey-iraq-and-iran#.UoP-oe8IeQo.twitter