.

to follow on 454 ..... MATD was an excellent example of exactly that, wasn't it mitzy!

For one moment i thought you were talking to me then cynic :)) glad I still hold but will look very carefully before close of day.

BB .... remember i bought the last lump out of pure greed when i was already heavily o'weight ..... i (effectively) sold those at a damn good profit considering the timescale + a modest additional number ..... i remain o'weight at cost and heavily so at current sp level

To be fair, matd had the flow rate results and we knew there was no immeadiate drilling program ahead and so should have got out at 1.90 but as usual for me, hung on too long. Xel still waiting for what we hope are good result, can anyone say if they're drilling again straight away or will winter weather hold things up??

I've got a lovely pair of coconuts..lol.

a good selection of banana skins too i dare say .... sorry mitzy; a bit cruel i'm afraid, but i just wanted to make a point

Today we have good volume......buys out way the sells by double and no clues on level 2 but much better volume so it should motor.

I've bought a few more this morning...if it's rising ...buy more...the trend is for the sp to rise...so....on a good flow...and I think it should be a good result...300p...minimum....I was right about 2 kinds of oil discovered...just a guess, but that's what it seems they have discovered...super share...super company....

Quite a positive post from III......... :)


http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AXEL.L&threshold=10&it=le&action=detail&id=7165973


AmeriKnowHow - Lets Talk GROSS!!

My real concern is that Block 9/3b (now joined by 9/3c and 9/3d) is an Immature Asset.

I am a seller now (potentially) at 20 - This was my target for 2015.

My 2015 Target is now 40+

I had hoped to sit on my shares (1/2 in ISA - 1/2 Unwrapped) for the next 5yrs and then live on Dividends/Drawdown as part/all of my Pension Funding.


There are believed to be 900MMbbls OOIP in the Bentley Field - as of Today's Date.

That is for Bentley alone with the East Bentley Upside Case bringing 70MMbbls into this 900MMbbl Party.

Oilfields always grow with time and even with today's developing technology XEL can expect to extract WELL over 50% of this total standing on its Head.

The Bentley Field is a potentially Massive 1000MMbbls + Structure in its own right.

ADD - IN the Brunel Prospect (another Dornoch Structure)
ADD IN the West Jurassic and South East Jurassic
ADD -IN Blocks c and d.
(the Jurassics as part of the Viking Graben)

These Outstanding Prospects on Block 9/3b, 9/3c and 9/3dcould EASILY be expected to DOUBLE the 1000MMbbls in the Bentley Main Field.

So what are you going to SELL out for??

The Current GROSS Value of Bentley OOIP is:-

1000MMbbls / 148 Million Shares in Issue = 6.75 barrrels per Share

@ $69 per bbl x 6.75bbls/share = $466 per Share.

The Now DOUBLED Figure is $932 per share.

The Bentley Alliance are going to extract and market the Bentley Oil for a cost of $33/bbl throughout the lifetime of the field.

A discount of no more than 10% to Brent Crude will apply (probably nearer to7-8%)

Current Budgeted OPEX costs will be reduced by 5% with the use of the East Bentley Gas Cap.

A 20% reduction in North Sea Oil Taxes will apply.

Where else are you going to go the get such a MASSIVE return on your investment??
Why SELL - OUT now to some pathetic POXY operation like Statoil or BP?

Do you WANT to spend the next five years living with the very limited growth prospects offered by BP or Statoil shares??

That is CERTAINLY NOT what I want to Do!!!.

GLA/DYOR Oilf.

currently 231/235 but only 1 x MM offering at 231

now that is a really typical and stupid post from iii and is exactly the sort of hyperbolic nonsense that gives BBs a bad name

Blatant ramping of the worst kind.....

typical pro stance.,.

to be fair, it wasn't Pros's twaddle - but then i would never have wasted space by pasting it here

6 V 1 on L2 so it looks like it should rise again,back down the mine clip clop clip clop

Checking on line limits :

MAX BUY = 10K @ 234.35p

MAX SELL = 25K @ 232.5p


L2 is 1 v 1 @ 231.5 / 235

So many nods and winks flying around its funny.

However, this is good that its having the first part of a move up now, this is the beginning.

So many people said they would only invest in XEL AFTER a commercially proven flow test is done, and so there is lots of money waiting for good news in order to pile in, the money that will not accept risk but is happy to ride for smaller gains (in comparison to those who take the risk and get much bigger ones, or not) with no risk.

Its all adding up for the perfect re-rating, just hope that well flows well ! ;) and if it does, then the fireworks start for real.

Such a nice thread , wish everything I touched performed like this.

Worth highlighting this post by Gramacho from 25th Oct 2010.


http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn:XEL.L&threshold=1&it=le&action=detail&id=7130851&prevpost=7130795&nextpost=7130854

The results so far look fantastic.

Per the Edison note Xcite also plans to tag an upside structure play potentially seen on 3D seismic with this well and, if the 3D interpretation is confirmed, this would increase the best estimate contingent resources to 235mmbbls.

Back in May broker Arbuthnott said:
However, we do acknowledge that the companys internal analysis of the 3D seismic data is pointing towards potential recoverable reserves of c.200mmbbl; this is substantially higher than even our high case scenario. BTW their high case of 166mmbbls was worth 712p/share or 642p/share with todays share register.

Given a successful test I think Arbuthnotts analyst Dougie Youngson will need to fire up his evaluation spreadsheet and plug in 200 mmbbl+ reserves!

With 100% Net:Gross in this part of the field it would seem difficult for the horizontal to miss!! lol

FWIW I have updated the extensive horizontal well rate estimate predictions in Parts 1 and 2 of my earlier posts. These were based on a pay thickness of 87ft. Should the 113ft net vertical pay encountered in the pilot be representative of the horizontal well then this should boost well potential by about 250-300 bbl/day.


The Expected Scenario discussed in Part 2 now reads as follows:

The following scenario makes allowance for this being XELs first attempt at a horizontal well and operational issues producing a non optimal skin. It could be considered a P50 or best estimate.

Kh = 7500md (Mid point of indicated range from well test using MDT sample viscosity)
Mhu = 627mD (Down hole MDT sample)
Kv/Kh = 0.7 (XEL best estimate)
L = 500m with 20% of wellbore length non effective (Intended length for 9/3b-R)
DP = 750 psi (not in CPR, based on intended range of 500 800 psi)
S = 10 (Allowance for undetermined operational issues restricting sand face clean up)

The model yields a rate of 2370 2650 bbl/d which would be exceeded by about 10% in the actual well, i.e. 2600 2900 bl/d. Converting to L = 800m, modelled rate would be 2880 3230 bbl/d with about 10% more in the well, i.e. comfortably in excess of 3000 bbl/d.

Fingers crossed now that XEL get the sand control completion design right. That looks the only thing between us and great test result.


Call me picky but I would have liked more clarification of the Jurassic results. It sounds like the Jurassic did not come in but I will ask for clarification at the end of the well. It was small beer in the scheme of things and is far outweighed by the news of the thicker Dornoch Sands in Bentley.

Regards and GLA

Gramacho

Sold two thirds , 130%+ in three/four weeks was enough for me.

Cheers guys.