What a chart, further to go, or not
Comments please

Half-Yearly Results for the six months to 30 June 2016

Tony Durrant, Chief Executive, commented:
"Delivery of a step change in production levels and a leaner operating cost base has addressed the lower commodity price environment. Full year production guidance is now increased, which will drive free cash flow generation. We have made substantial progress with our lending group on the principal terms of a refinancing. Our project portfolio has been expanded, positioning Premier for future growth at lower cost."

Entering new phase
· Moving to positive cash flow following a period of substantial investment
· E.On UK acquisition brings portfolio and financial benefits
· Full year production guidance raised to 68-73 kboepd
· Cost base reset
· Progress being made with lending group to amend financial covenants and to revise debt maturities

Strong operational performance
· Production averaged 61.0 kboepd (2015 H1: 60.4 kboepd)
· 93 per cent production efficiency
· Recent record production rates above 95 kboepd
· Solan on-stream

Solid financial performance
· Profit after tax of US$167.1 million, including E.On negative goodwill credit of US$106.9 million (2015 H1: loss of US$375.2 million)
· Operating cash flow of US$108.7 million (2015 H1: US$513.0 million)
· H1 operating costs of US$16.5/boe, 14 per cent below budget
· Weaker sterling exchange rate positively impacts forward opex, capex and debt
· Net debt slightly lower on end Q1 position at US$2.63 billion (31 December 2015: US$2.2 billion)

Future growth
· Catcher on schedule for 2017 first oil, capex 20 per cent lower than at sanction
· High return infill drilling in UK and Asia
· New development projects benefitting from improved economics
· Exploration prospects in Mexico, Brazil and UK Southern Gas Basin

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=5400116

Bought some at 66.96p

The large fall today and and now bounce back with strong order book on the bid side. Had a very large retracement from the 80p high.
Oil price have stagnated so far today after the the recent 2 weeks fall
Both PMO and Light oil had about 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

already at 69p
and the dollar has stopped rising and about time getting weak so oil prices and metals rising

intraday chart of MAM as usual not working properly showing 68.38p

Pound againts Dollar

Bloomberg - September 4, 2016

Saudi Arabia raises oil prices amid signs of growing demand

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, has raised pricing for October oil sales to Asia and the United States in a sign of strengthening demand.

The state-owned Aramco increased its official selling price for Arab Light crude to Asia by 90 cents a barrel, to 20 cents below the regional benchmark, it said on Sunday. The company had been expected to raise Arab Light prices by 50 cents a barrel, to 60 cents less than the benchmark for Asian buyers, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of seven refiners and traders in the region.

Brent crude has dropped about half from its average price in 2014, when Saudi Arabia led Opec to maintain production to drive out higher-cost suppliers. The group decided at a June 2 meeting in Vienna to stick to its policy of unfettered production, with ministers united in their optimism that global oil markets are improving. Opec will meet again this month in Algiers.

Saudi Arabia will not boost output to its full 12.5 million barrel-a-day capacity and flood the market, the kingdom’s energy minister Khalid Al Falih said last week. Saudi Arabia is not concerned about global demand in spite of a drop in prices and a slower economy, he said while on a state visit to Asian nations including China and Japan.

Saudi Aramco raised pricing for all other crude grades to Asia by a range of 70 to 95 cents a barrel against the benchmark, while it boosted pricing for all grades to the US by a range of 20 to 30 cents. The company cut all prices to north-west Europe and the Mediterranean region.

Global oil-market stability is impossible without the cooperation of Russia and Saudi Arabia, said Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Saudi Arabia hopes to work with Russia for stability in oil markets, Prince Mohammed said Sunday in a meeting with the Russian president in Hangzhou, China. World leaders are gathering in China this week for a summit of Group of 20 nations. Russia and Saudi Arabia will meet with other producers in Algeria this month to discuss oil markets.

"Our countries are the two biggest oil producers, that’s why there can’t be a stable policy in the sphere of oil without the participation of Russia and Saudi Arabia," said Prince Mohammed. Mr Putin said it is important for the two countries to "maintain a permanent dialogue".

70.25p +1.75p

the bounce continues, as the oil price has spike up

Oil price next move

66.50 Change: +1.75 (+2.70%)

most oilies on the up as the poo is rising from the start of the day

At 6.08am, WTI crude was up 1.79% to $43.80/bbl, and Brent was ahead 1.64% to $46.52.

A tad too gloomy by "Hub" ( Fri 10:52 ).....

OPEC meet in under 10 days and historically shorters have taken some weight off bets heading into those events. I don't think much will come from the Sept meet and they will likely pen in another meet in Oct, Nov and then the biggy in Dec. It's this one which I think may see some proper action implemented. I think the Saudi's and Russians and literally pumping like mad to get their 'freeze' levels higher so any deal simply caps Iranian and other producers while securing their higher production etc etc. But that's life!

So in summary, should see some bounces across PoO and commodities over next 10 days but after that meeting... who knows? Back to $45pb again, rinse and repeat?

PMO have debt talks ongoing regarding covenant tests etc and that's why they are trading differently to other peers who do not have such debt tests arriving.

As I have said before, PMO equity / shares are an asset and may well come into play with current debt discussions. For example, if you woke up to a headline on Monday saying debt covenants waived through to mid 2017 and xx stock issued to debt holders in options set at xx price, then you might not be too surprised.

Debt holders can make decent money simply by gaining some cheap shares and giving PMO another 6 to 9 months.

Each monthly extension could play into a VWAP pricing scenario. Eg; take average sp over last 3 months and issue as strike price for options.

No one likes dilution but I think any options issued would be moderate - perhaps represent a % of the interest gained per year etc

PMO with debt headroom has to be worth nearer 90p to 100p per share rather than 60p.

Historically - PMO were valued at 180p per share in 2015 when PoO was testing $60pb.

That's quite some slippage considering PoO is not far off $50pb and $60pb has to be within sights in H1 2017.

CEO has said that $45pb is the marker for 'safety' but worth noting this has to 'average' out over 2016.

Hence, even $50pb+ for Q4 may not get full 2016 average above $42pb.

Fed Reserve rate decision next week should come and go without a raise. This combined with following weeks OPEC meet could deliver a decent recovery bounce for market which look a little oversold on a 10 to 14 days basis

Bought some at under offer 71.75p or middle price

Has been lagging behind their peers lately, now retracement is done and oil price is bouncing higher, share price should do the same. Indicators: Stochastic at oversold and RSI should bounce from 50

72.125p +1.125p

Someone is loading with 250K buys at this low price, both paying premium 71.75p offer paying 72p, the last one paying 72.20p when offer was 72p

10:05:14
72.00
250,000
£180k

10:17:14
72.20
250,000
£180.50k

Added a few more @ 71.73p, still the same price as yesterday and Oil price well on the up since

At 8.37am, WTI crude was up 1.15% to $50.87/bbl and Brent was up 1.06% to $52.23/bbl.

now $51.02 for texas WTI and $52.40 for Brent

i was very surprised to note that TLW has easily outperformed PMO over the last 12 and 1 and 2 and 3 months

It looks like some Investors are selling today IAE , ENQ and FPM (they had a very good rise lately) and moving into PMO

Hhttp://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_9d67516e17a09f014d5dce2dd3037649.png

Bought some more at just below 62p

Has reached close enough to support, after having a very large drop recently.
Order book has change from being weak on the bid side to strong DEPTH 69 v 47

Another oil company shortly to be at the mercy of its lenders?

All a gamble at the moment-if they get an agreement on restructuring debt then yes sp will improve provided OPEC come at last to their senses... if neither happens then a serlously risky stock

55.75p +7.25p (+14.95%)

Premier Oil (LON:PMO) Rating
London: In analysts note made public on Tuesday, 15 November, Deutsche maintained their Buy rating on shares of Premier Oil (LON:PMO). They currently have a GBX 90.00 target price per share on the company. Deutsche’s target gives a potential upside of 72.25% from the company’s current price.

Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) Ratings Coverage
Out of 23 analysts covering Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO), 12 rate it a “Buy”, 3 “Sell”, while 8 “Hold”. This means 52% are positive. GBX 370 is the highest target while GBX 12 is the lowest. The GBX 111.57 average target is 113.53% above today’s (GBX 52.25) stock price. Premier Oil PLC has been the topic of 165 analyst reports since July 24, 2015 according to StockzIntelligence Inc.

The firm has “Buy” rating by Liberum Capital given on Wednesday, May 11. The firm earned “Neutral” rating on Thursday, March 3 by Davy Research. As per Friday, August 21, the company rating was maintained by Beaufort Securities. On Monday, November 16 the stock rating was maintained by Liberum Capital with “Buy”.

About 5.48 million shares traded hands. Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) has declined 7.62% since April 15, 2016 and is downtrending. It has underperformed by 11.55% the S&P500.

Http://www.whatsonthorold.com/2016/11/15/stock-rating-runner-deutsche-reaffirms-a-buy-rating-on-premier-oil-lonpmo-and-gbx-90-00-target/

FTSE 100 about to get exciting

Chart pattern emerging

Taking a wider view of the blue-chip index, we see an interesting chart pattern building, not dissimilar to the simple wedge pattern we saw develop during September.

Then, a series of higher lows over a three-month period following the post-referendum crash formed a solid uptrend.

Predicting the market's next move is harder than ever - just watch the trendAt the beginning of October, that uptrend converged with the downtrend from the April 2015 high. An inevitable chart breakout was worth over 200 points and a new record high.

Now, another uptrend from the same June low is converging with that same downtrend begun 18 months ago. Expect a similarly dramatic outcome, although which way the break goes is unclear. Given the weak bounces off the uptrend, the prognosis does not look particularly good.

However, it's been very obvious in recent sessions that predicting the market's next move is harder than ever. Just watch the trend.

56.60p +2.125p

Trading and Operations Update - 17 November 2016

Premier today provides a Trading and Operations Update for the period 1 January to 31 October 2016.

Highlights
·
Comprehensive term sheet for refinancing in final stages of negotiation with the Group's banks and private bondholders
·
Production averaged 69 kboepd year-to-date; current run rate of >80 kboepd, on track to meet previously increased full year guidance of 68-73 kboepd
·
Outperformance from the Huntington, Chim Sáo and Natuna Sea Block A fields; production currently constrained at the Solan field
·
Catcher on schedule for first oil in 2017 with total capex now estimated at $1.7 billion, 24% lower than at sanction; FPSO outfitting continues apace and well delivery remains ahead of prognosis
·
Exclusivity period with preferred bidder for the Pakistan business has ended; discussions continue with the previously preferred bidder and new third parties; Pakistan assets substantially outperforming in 2016, value to be retained by Premier
·
Forecast 2016 operating costs of $15.9/bbl and gross G&A of $196 million, both significantly below budget
·
Forecast 2016 exploration and development capex expected to be below previous guidance of $730 million; 2017 capex anticipated to be materially lower at $300 million
·
Net debt of $2.8 billion at 31 October, marginally down from Q3, with cash and undrawn facilities on hand of c. $600 million

Tony Durrant, Chief Executive, commented:
"Against a challenging commodity price backdrop, Premier continues to deliver operationally. The company is benefitting from a step change in production with a significantly lower cost base while excellent progress has been made on the Catcher project, which remains on track for first oil next year. Refinancing of the Group's debt has taken longer than anticipated but will, once completed, put Premier in good stead to reinvest in the business while, at the same, time paying down debt. In the medium term, Premier sees increasing value in the Tolmount area, the Sea Lion projects and its exploration acreage in Mexico."