http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Thoughts on Rockhopper:

Negatives: The recent 14/10-3 result and the current share price.

These two are, quite rightly IMO, directly linked. Since the original 14/10-2 discovery well, Rockhopper, as a company, has been valued on the Sea Lion CPR P90 figure (58 million bbls), plus potential for the rest of the field (669 million bbls, Volumetric Report, high estimate), plus sentiment.

The 14/10-3 exploration well, at a stroke, slashed the potential part of the equation, and gave the sentiment a hammering too.

After Desires infamous oil to water shenanigans, the last thing that Rockhopper needed was an RNS suggesting that Sea Lion was full of water. The totally unnecessary use of the word un-commercial in that RNS certainly didnt help either. Sentiment, understandably, has fallen since then.

Desire will now have the rig for the next month, before Rockhopper will be able to continue with their appraisal programme. This lack of action has, understandably, seen the exit of many short term traders, as well as the usual gang of rainbow chasers, as they move onto the next big thing. Weakness in the share price, at this stage, was almost guaranteed.

Positives: Misunderstanding and over-reaction to the 14/10-3 RNS, excellent 14/10-4 result, southern acreage & 3D seismic, unrealised potential elsewhere on Sea Lion.

Since the 14/10-4 RNS was published, it looks as though there has been a shift in the way that the market values Rockhopper. This first appraisal well in the Sea Lion discovery area has more than doubled the P90, from 58 million bbls, up to approximately 130 million bbls. Current market cap values this oil at around $8 per barrel, with absolutely no value added to the company for cash, potential or sentiment.

Since 14/10-4, we have moved on from having to use words like could, may, and probable, when describing the contents of the Sea Lion reservoir. We can now use words like does, is, and proven, but only at the P90 level.

IMO, adding value to the company from here, will require adding barrels of oil to the P90 figure.

So whats not priced in, then?

> 7 metres of net pay, in the northern lobe of Sea Lion, found in 14/10-3.

> The potential for oil trapped within the hammerhead of the northern lobe, up dip of the 14/10-3 location.

> The potential for oil trapped against the eastern margin of the northern lobe, up dip of the 14/10-3 location.

> The entire S2 fan! We know that oil has migrated, northwards, through the northern lobe of Sea Lion, and we know that the down dip location, drilled at the southern extremity of S2, had oil shows. Whats up dip in S2?

> The potential for thicker net pay, up dip of the OWC, in the Sea Lion southern lobe. 14/10-4 found 30m of oil-bearing net pay in the Sea Lion main fan and a further 48m below the OWC. The contours of the reservoir to the west, south and east of the 14/10-4 location all rise, bringing more of the sand package above the OWC. Thicker sand above the OWC = more oil in place.

> The (huge) potential of the southern acreage. In one fell swoop, the 3D seismic of this area (which, as we know, is currently being fast-tracked by Rockhopper) could not only re-coup the potential that was lost by drilling 14/10-3, but could significantly increase it. Does anyone seriously believe that Sea Lion just stops at the southern boundary of the currently held 3D seismic?

> Sea Lion Lower. This fan was not penetrated by 14/10-4, is not in communication with the main fan, and therefore will have its own, deeper, OWC. The un-appraised P90 figure for this fan is currently only 8 million barrels. Appraisal of this reservoir could prove up as much as a further 148 million barrels (44 million best estimate), depending on reservoir thickness and OWC.

> Prospectivity for deeper fans. 14/10-2 found 2m of deeper net pay. 14/10-4 found 3m of deeper, oil-bearing, net pay, below the water leg of the upper sands. What is this sand? Where does it go? What does it become? Does it suggest that Sea Lion Lower could have a deeper OWC than expected?

> 200 million in cash. This alone, is worth 77p on the share price.

> The entire CPR portfolio! Theres a lot more to the North Falkland Basin than Sea Lion alone and Rockhopper currently have the cash to go and explore it.

So, IMO, from here on in, there should be little downside for Rockhopper, as the company is underpinned with a commercially viable asset.

There is, however, a large potential upside.

Make no mistake, 14/10-4 has turned the North Falkland Basin into a new oil producing province.

Current P90, 130 million barrels of recoverable oil = a $15 billion asset. Deduct $1.5 billion capital expenditure, and $1.5 billion of operational expenditure for the life of the field (RPSs figures, not mine), and youre left with $12 billion worth of oil (at current spot price) that can be brought to market.

Theyre not going to leave that in the ground.

The following is the last line from the 14/10-4 RNS:

Following this well, Rockhopper will commence work on development planning for the Sea Lion discovery.

Once more, for effect:

Following this well, Rockhopper will commence work on development planning for the Sea Lion discovery.

So, what are our Rockhopper shares worth?

Theyre worth what someone is prepared to pay for them. And currently, thats somewhere around 2.60.

Is it a fair price? Probably.

Is it a sensible price? No.

Am I bovvered? Nah! At this price, Im buying.

The future's bright. ;-)

ef.

not bad just a hmmmm
gla
Chances of finding Falklands oil are slim and the risks are highRobin Pagnamenta, Energy Editor It is the oil well that has sparked a diplomatic incident, but whether or not the Ocean Guardian the rig that began drilling into the seabed 60 miles north of the Falkland Islands on Monday will find anything more than mud and sand is doubtful. Desire Petroleum, the company behind the operation, says that the drilling campaign at its Liz prospect will take 30 days to reach a target depth of 3,500 metres (11,500ft).

There can be no doubt that the new drilling campaign is high risk, says Ross McCracken, of Platts, the oil and gas information service, who stressed that relatively little was known about the geology of the South Atlantic.

The drill-bit of the 14,400 tonne platform will descend through layers of sandstone and Lower Cretaceous rock beneath the seabed at an average of 116m (380ft) a day. Geologically, the area is not dissimilar to the North Sea, and the company claims that if a discovery is made, the field could contain nearly 400 million barrels of oil. But independent analysis of the rock structures claim that the operation has only a slim chance of success about 17 per cent, to be precise.

A commercial find is likely to send the share prices soaring, but the probability of such a find is fairly low. These are, after all, wildcat wells on almost virgin territory, Mr McCracken said.

same just a hummmm...
i am to buy back not yet though
but who am i????????????? lol

British drilling for Falklands oil threatens Argentine relationsHannah Strange, Frank Pope, Ocean Correspondent, and Deborah Haynes, Defence Editor Britains relations with Argentina fell last night to their lowest point since the Falklands conflict in a row over an oil platform that is due to arrive north of Port Stanley next week.

The Ocean Guardian is expected to complete its journey to the disputed waters 100 miles off the Falklands coast from the Scottish Highlands as part of a campaign that Britain hopes will bring a black-gold rush to the windswept, sparsely populated islands.

But, almost three decades after Britain and Argentina fought a bloody 72-day conflict over the islands, its impending arrival has stoked fury in a country that is still intent on claiming the territory as its own.

Amid an intensifying war of words, Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana warned on Thursday night that his Government would take all measures necessary to preserve our rights.

Related Links
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He reiterated that Argentina had a permanent claim on the islands, saying Buenos Aires would complain to the UN over the oil project and might take the case to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

Unconfirmed reports by the waiting crew claimed the platform had been shadowed by Argentine aircraft as it made its journey. The Ministry of Defence and the Foreign and Commonwealth Office said they were unable to confirm the reports. Desire Petroleum, the company heading the operations, and AGR Petroleum Services, which willl operate the platform, said they were not aware of any fly-over.

As Buenos Aires said it would take all necessary steps to prevent the illegal operations in Las Malvinas, as they are known in Argentina, the Falklands government warned against such sabre-rattling, pointing out the high level of military protection the islands enjoyed. Britain has more than 1,000 military personnel on land and more than 300 at sea in the region, as well as four Typhoon aircraft, one destroyer and one patrol boat.

Were very well defended, said Phyllis Rendall, director of the islands Department of Mineral Resources. Weve got four of those Eurofighters. We certainly didnt have that kind of protection in 1982. Back then we had only 50 Marines.

The British Foreign Office denied that the oil operations were illegal. We are absolutely clear this is legitimate business in Falkland Islands waters and we will continue to reiterate our position that we have no doubt about our sovereignty over the Falkland Islands and the surrounding maritime areas, a spokesman said.

Analysts say that as many as 60 billion barrels of high-grade oil could be found in a 200 sq mile zone surrounding the islands, which is to be developed by Desire, AGR and Diamond Offshore Drilling. That could make the Falklands one of the worlds largest oil reserves, comparable with the North Sea, which so far has produced about 40 billion barrels.

The Falklands government noted that in 2007 Argentina tore up an agreement between Britain and Argentina to co-operate over hydrocarbon discoveries. I dont think theyre really willing to share at all, Ms Rendall said. Theyre all about land-grabbing. Its a matter of national pride.

While the Falklands dispute is long settled in the British consciousness, in Argentina where school textbooks show Las Malvinas as part of the national territory it remains a thorny subject. The Argentine leader, Cristina Ferndez de Kirchner, has made the countrys claim a key theme of her presidency, rousing nationalist sensibilities around a cause which has become even more significant with the approach of presidential elections next year.

On the last anniversary of the war, Mrs Kirchner insisted that the claim would never be surrendered and demanded Britain adhere to UN resolutions requiring dialogue.

In January Britain rejected Argentinas latest claim to the territory occupied by the British in 1833, and wants to extend its rights to waters surrounding the islands and lock in a vast tract of seabed off the coast of Antarctica.

they are an month or 2 old but still relevant

only 4 typoons in the maldives...
gulp!
Amid an intensifying war of words, Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana warned on Thursday night that his Government would take all measures necessary to preserve our rights.

Falklands weather is much better than the Maldives...no Typhoons!

seems to me I read this one correct....250 coming up.,.

bb is that your floor price?...... might drift lower in the absence of tangible news.

I agree hali, possible to go back to 230ish. just didn't want to be out for too long incase news came. happy with my buy's at mo, won't jump in on 250 yet.,.

A stop in for 245

Starting to think that maybe I should add on Friday anyway just in case it goes ballistic over the weekend - out of the action for three days at the start of next week.

StockMarketWire.com
North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company Rockhopper Exploration plc said it noted an announcement by Desire Petroleum that the 14/15-3 exploration well on the Ninky prospect was spudded early today (Mar 29).

Rockhopper has a 7.5% interest in the well. It said the operator would make a further announcement once logging was complete.

and what announcement when another duster confirmed?

40p up after a successful appraisal well of Sea Lion.CRACKERS..and so is the share price.

Need an update with numbers in it!!!!!!

Surprising drop.....should be around or above 300p....242p....ridiculous....I hope that a Ninky duster is priced in already....

news is on way

Don't forget that, until commerciality is proven to be possible, RKH has merely moved from 'very speculative' to 'speculative'. Still in the white knuckle ride territory as far as I'm concerned. Patience required!

sp slipping away in the absence of tangible news heading towards 200p.

Don't like to say i told you so RF.,.

18:00hrs HSBC Global Custody Nominees (UK) Ltd 12,910,473 5% Share holding

Well worth a read if you have 5 minutes

http://mastershanusinterps.zxq.net/14104_4interp.htm