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Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP)     

goal - 15 Mar 2005 17:17

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

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cynic - 11 Nov 2013 08:06 - 4575 of 5505

looks like a bit of a silly market reaction to the above so arguably a point at which to buy, even if only as a quick trade

halifax - 12 Nov 2013 13:18 - 4576 of 5505

sp 156p down 5%, time to buy?

HARRYCAT - 12 Nov 2013 13:28 - 4577 of 5505

A sobering note from Wood & Co from a few weeks ago:
"We see material downside risk (in a no-M&A scenario) in Shaikan development as GKP continues to disappoint operationally missing both its own guidance and our more conservative expectations. In our view, in a no-deal case, Gulf Keystone may not be able to execute fast-track development of the Shaikan field: i) low quality of the crude makes it barely marketable on the domestic market in the KRI; ii) export infrastructure is not expected to become available before 2015, which materially lowers our production expectations for the next three-to-four years.
We believe that heavy FDP commitments and huge funding gap over the next three years may cast a pall over the share price in the near term. Nevertheless, GKP remains one of the most appealing takeover candidates in the region, in our view. Yet, elevated political risks and geologically challenging Akri-Bijeel field in GKP’s portfolio may delay M&A until we see a decision from the KRG on exports reopening and/or Akri-Bijeel stake sell-down. Overall, sizeable risks and stock performance of over 20% since our initiation in July 2013 makes us take a more conservative stance on GKP’s investment case.
Shaikan’s production severely constrained. The field was sealed for over a month in September-October. In our view, Shaikan’s heavy oil is struggling to find a market in the KRI, as the company was selling to only one customer during the production period at heavily discounted prices, averaging at USD 43/bbl.
Export infrastructure remains out of reach. GKP now expects the export pipeline for Shaikan only in 2015. The timing of completion of the dedicated Shaikan heavy oil exports pipeline (which is crucial, in our view, to monetise the field) remains unknown.
Takeover expectations revive after a court victory. GKP is seen as one of the most appealing takeover candidates in the KRI. We see GBp 191-325/sh takeover bid range @ 13.5% WACC. Prevailing political risks, however, may significantly delay M&A activity in the KRI.
We see over USD 600m funding gap in 2014-16 which may force GKP to go for potentially dilutive financing. GKP has an extensive development programme on the Shaikan block, which in our view will require over USD 600m in additional funding for the company. The planned listing on the LSE Main Market may provide access to new money, but it may still not be possible to cover GKP’s financing needs with non-dilutive sources.
We see the value of the on-trend blocks (Shaikan, Sheikh Adi, Akri-Bijeel and Ber Bahr) as ranging between USD 1.89-2.28 per barrel, implying core NAV of GBp 191/share. Embedding the heavily risked upside from the E&A portfolio and accounting for the cash pile, we arrive at our GBp 191/sh PT."

Shortie - 12 Nov 2013 15:59 - 4578 of 5505

Purchased another future today..

niceonecyril - 15 Nov 2013 08:52 - 4579 of 5505

http://mobile.businessweek.com/articles/2013-11-14/2014-outlook-kurdistans-oil-ambitions



Kurdistan, the self-governing region of northern Iraq, is poised to realize a gusher in revenue from its oil fields. Estimated reserves of about 45 billion barrels of crude have piqued the interest of several of the world’s largest oil companies. Although getting crude out of the country has until now been a challenge, the opening of a pipeline into Turkey at the start of 2014 will make it significantly easier to get the oil to markets. “We’re looking at multibillion barrels,” says Dougie Youngson, an analyst at VSA Capital in London. “The operators are sitting on huge resources that they want to start commercializing.”

Once it gets going, the pipeline, built and owned by the Kurdistan Regional Government, could result in exports of about 400,000 barrels of oil annually, according to the government. The output will jump to 1 million barrels a year by 2015, and 2 million barrels by 2019, says Ashti Hawrami, Kurdistan’s minister of natural resources. Such estimates have prompted ExxonMobil, Total, Chevron, and Gazprom to sign exploration agreements with the government. If it were a country, Kurdistan would rank 10th among the largest oil-holding sovereigns in the world. It produces about 200,000 barrels per day, with 50,000 of that exported to Turkey by truck. Southern Iraq’s oil fields pump out about 3 million barrels per day.

The substantial reserves will help meet increasing global demand at a time when three of the largest producers—Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia—are closed to many Western oil companies. “Iraq is the only country in the world where you can put a pipe in the ground and the oil starts flowing,” says Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency. “It’s the last easy oil.”

Kurdistan’s oil fields do have their political complications. Exxon and Total—both active in southern Iraq—face increased tensions with the central government in Baghdad given a long-standing dispute between Iraq and the Kurds over control of the northern oil fields and export revenue. In September, Hussain al-Shahristani, Iraq’s deputy prime minister for energy affairs, called Exxon’s intention to explore in the region a “serious error.”

But the upside of easy oil outweighs the risks of upsetting Baghdad, for large and smaller producers alike. “This is transformational for both Kurdistan and Genel,” says Tony Hayward, the former chief executive officer of BP who was appointed CEO of Genel in November 2011. The Turkish company is one of two foreign explorers, along with Norway’s DNO International, operating in Kurdistan and trucking out its exports. The pipeline, Hayward says, will give Kurdistan greater control over its exports and access to more markets. “For us,” he adds, “not only will we get higher realizations, we’ll get much greater volumes. It allows us to unleash the capacity we already have and to build a lot mor

niceonecyril - 17 Nov 2013 08:13 - 4580 of 5505



The Energy Minister Taner Yildiz told reporters in Ankara that “The system we will establish will certainly help resolve the dispute between the Kurdish regional government and the central government.”

Iraq’s federal government in Baghdad and autonomous Kurdistan have long been divided over how to split energy revenue, which has paralysed development of new oil and gas projects in the region. Energy-hungry Turkey is keen on seeing progress on the issue to satisfy its growing energy needs.

Yildiz also said “Ankara has suggested it can serve as an independent intermediary by having oil revenues deposited into an escrow account at a Turkish state bank. Both Baghdad and Kurdistan would have full information on funds in the account and would decide between themselves on the percentage of revenue to be paid to each,” noting that ” I discussed the proposal with Hussein al-Shihristani, Iraq’s deputy prime minister responsible for energy affairs, during a visit to South Korea last month.”

“Baghdad wasn’t sure what type of system it wanted, adding that “energy should be used as an instrument for peace, not tension,” pointing out, Asked about US response to the Turkish proposal for mediation, Yildiz said: “I am of the opinion that the formula we have developed will be approved. The more this pipeline operates at full capacity, the more revenues Iraq will receive.”

Turkey is planning to increase use of the existing pipeline more active and wants to add additional oil and gas pipelines along the route.

Read more: hxxp://www.iraqinews.com/baghdad-politics/turkey-proposes-to-mediate-long-running-dispute-between-baghdad-kurdistan-region-over-dividing-oil-revenue/#ixzz2koIkQFIO
Follow us: @IraqiNews_com on Twitter | IraqNews on Facebook

niceonecyril - 17 Nov 2013 08:15 - 4581 of 5505

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/16/us-turkey-kurdistan-idUSBRE9AF05L20131116?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=992637
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Clearly the completion of the 1st pipeline is focusing minds.

niceonecyril - 21 Nov 2013 16:16 - 4583 of 5505

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-20/iraq-kurds-to-pump-oil-to-turkey-in-truce-with-baghdad.html


Iraq Kurds to Pump Oil to Turkey in Truce With Baghdad
By Selcan Hacaoglu & Onur Ant - Nov 20, 2013 8:28 AM GMT

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Iraq’s Kurds plan to start pumping oil to Turkey next month via a pipeline controlled by the central government in Baghdad, signaling an easing of their dispute over resources, according to two people familiar with the plan.

The new line will take Kurdish oil into the existing pipe that runs from Kirkuk in Iraq to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, initially carrying 150,000 barrels a day starting in December, according to the Turkish energy industry officials who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. An Iraqi energy industry manager, who requested anonymity for the same reason, said the state oil company has accounted for the extra oil in 2014 plans.

Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdish Regional Government’s natural resources minister, said at a press conference last month that the 40-kilometer pipeline will have a capacity of 300,000 barrels a day. Mehmet Sepil, president of London-listed Genel Energy, said at the same conference that the pipeline from Dohuk to Fishkabur on the Turkish border will carry 200,000 barrels a day from its Tawke and Taq Taq fields.

The Iraqi official said the Kurdish oil will be metered when it feeds into the main pipeline, at Fishkabur near the Turkish border, and again when it arrives at Ceyhan.

The agreement signals a truce on the issue between the Iraqi Kurds, who say they should have control over oil and gas resources in the north, and the Baghdad government, which argues that all energy transactions need central approval.
More Willing

Iraq’s government under Nouri al-Maliki, which has sought to block energy agreements between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds, is struggling to control a wave of deadly sectarian attacks.

“Maliki is now more willing to taking to consideration the interests of Turkey and the Kurdistan regional government because he needs stability,” Stephen Larrabee of Rand Corp., a policy institute based in Santa Monica, California, said in an interview in Ankara.

Iraq’s Kurds want to raise oil production and expand beyond the capacity of current pipelines, and say they’ll build a link to bypass the Baghdad-run network.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s output may increase to 1 million barrels a day by the end of 2015 and 2 million barrels by 2020, Hawrami said on Oct. 31. Kurdistan currently exports 30,000 to 50,000 barrels a day in trucks to Turkey.

“As Iraq normalizes, Turkey will meet its energy needs through oil and natural gas deals with Iraq,” Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz told NTV television in an interview in Paris today. “Contracts with northern Iraq and agreements with the central government are part of this chain and it will done transparently.”

Yildiz said a new oil terminal with similar capacity to Ceyhan may be built on the Mediterranean coast.

“The entry of northern Iraqi oil would not affect the price of oil in world markets but it is an important step for normalization of whole of Iraq and for Turkey’s supply security,” he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Selcan Hacaoglu in Ankara at shacaoglu@bloomberg.net; Onur Ant in Ankara at oant@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Andrew J. Barden at barden@bloomberg.net
More News:

Middle East ·
Sustainability ·
Energy

niceonecyril - 22 Nov 2013 14:09 - 4584 of 5505

It would appear that the written judgement date is the 13th Dec?

niceonecyril - 24 Nov 2013 09:13 - 4585 of 5505

Atlantic Council Summit

When it comes to northern Iraq, there is always speculation about the future. This is how John Roberts, senior partner at MeThinks Ltd., opened the session on the opportunities in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRG). Questions range from the future of Iraq’s tremendous oil and gas resources to the role can it play in the region’s economic development and what, if anything, the Iraqis, their neighbors, and partners can do to overcome existing barriers.

In an attempt to explore new landscapes and development opportunities in Eurasia, the Atlantic Council Energy & Economic Summit devoted two sessions to barriers and opportunities in Iraq, and particularly in its northern region of Kurdistan. Panel members included government representatives: Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq Minister of National Resources Ashti Hawrami, and Iraqi Member of Parliament Adnan Al-Janabi; and leaders from the private sector: Chevron VP for Europe, Eurasia, and Middle East Exploration and Production Ian MacDonald; General Energy CEO Tony Hayward; Crescent Petroleum CEO Majid Jafar; and Iraqi Energy Institute Executive Director Luay Al-Khatteeb.

Discussants agreed that the KRG has achieved tremendous success during the past decade and were very hopeful about the KRG’s future and the large cross-border energy projects.

“We set an example of how natural resources can be used for the benefit of ordinary people,” said Dr. Hawrami, who stressed more than once that the realization of large energy projects will benefit not only KRG residents, but all of Iraq. More importantly, he continued, it is economic and trade relations that build bridges between nations; a revival of Turkish-KRG relations is the best example of how trade can shape modern international relations However, the debate continues about how Iraq’s huge oil and gas resources can reach local and international markets. Hayward ensured the audience that big oil always finds its way to the market. Fluid and transparent cooperation between the KRG government and the major energy investors is another, more tangible, reason to be hopeful about the future.

“I am confident that oil and gas from northern Iraq will flow and that it will be a significant contribution to the Turkish and Iraqi economy,” said Chevron’s MacDonald.

Intensified bilateral relations between Turkey and the KRG; the US government’s open and unequivocal support for further exploration, development, and export of Iraqi energy resources; and the KRG’s readiness to continue discussing various schemes and mechanisms of revenue-sharing between Arbil and Baghdad further strengthen the general optimism for the future of the region

Http://gkpinvestor.proboards.com/thread/2361/strong-optimism-future-kurdistan-region
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Next week should give a clearer picture, via the SREAM Conference(dec 1-4).

cynic - 24 Nov 2013 11:30 - 4586 of 5505

it'll be very interesting to see what happens to Genel sp next week ..... read ST for more

kimoldfield - 24 Nov 2013 12:57 - 4587 of 5505

"Shares in the oil explorer founded by former BP boss Tony Hayward and tycoon Nat Rothschild are set to soar thanks to the completion of a key pipeline."

Certainly one to keep an eye on!

halifax - 24 Nov 2013 18:09 - 4588 of 5505

which one GKP or GENEL?

cynic - 24 Nov 2013 18:27 - 4589 of 5505

one will follow the other at a guess

kimoldfield - 24 Nov 2013 19:11 - 4590 of 5505

Genel initially probably but GKP may follow!

halifax - 28 Nov 2013 16:55 - 4592 of 5505

Is a RNS imminent?

cynic - 28 Nov 2013 17:07 - 4593 of 5505

a pretty srn would be even more welcome :-)

patsym - 28 Nov 2013 18:23 - 4594 of 5505

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/media-centre/video-library

Interesting
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