there seems to be some heavy resistance around these level with a lot of potential upside.

Approaching 10 again! Slightly tempted

Can't decide so won't
2:08GMT 21Nov2008-European pharmas suffers as risk appetite inches back
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Shares in European big cap pharma fall as investors see value in riskier
assets.
"What you are seeing now is that people may possibly move up the risk curve
a little bit in which case you see outflows out of the pharma sector," says an
analyst at a major bank. "Look at the chemicals sector that's reasonably strong
today."
"In relative terms pharma is not a cheap sector anymore if you look at one
year forward P/E relative or something like that. I think that is the sort of
macro trends we are looking at I don't think we are really seeing anything stock
specific.
Another analyst agrees, saying: "Maybe there's a bit of rotation, maybe
other sectors have become a bit too cheap relatively speaking".
He adds that with clients seeking to sell their stakes in funds, thin
volumes could suggest that clients may be asking fund managers are being forced
to selling off big cap holdings which often include pharmaceutical stocks.
At 12:32 GMT, Sanofi-Aventis was down 5.5 percent, Novartis was down 5.9
percent, Roche was down 5.4 percent, AstraZeneca was down 4.3 percent and
GlaxoSmithKline was down 3.1 percent.

Can't decide so won't
2:08GMT 21Nov2008-European pharmas suffers as risk appetite inches back
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Shares in European big cap pharma fall as investors see value in riskier
assets.
"What you are seeing now is that people may possibly move up the risk curve
a little bit in which case you see outflows out of the pharma sector," says an
analyst at a major bank. "Look at the chemicals sector that's reasonably strong
today."
"In relative terms pharma is not a cheap sector anymore if you look at one
year forward P/E relative or something like that. I think that is the sort of
macro trends we are looking at I don't think we are really seeing anything stock
specific.
Another analyst agrees, saying: "Maybe there's a bit of rotation, maybe
other sectors have become a bit too cheap relatively speaking".
He adds that with clients seeking to sell their stakes in funds, thin
volumes could suggest that clients may be asking fund managers are being forced
to selling off big cap holdings which often include pharmaceutical stocks.
At 12:32 GMT, Sanofi-Aventis was down 5.5 percent, Novartis was down 5.9
percent, Roche was down 5.4 percent, AstraZeneca was down 4.3 percent and
GlaxoSmithKline was down 3.1 percent.

U.S. flu shows resistance to flu drug, CDC says.

A common strain of influenza circulating in the United States this winter is resistant to Tamiflu, the most popular drug used to treat it, federal health officials said on Friday. Tamiflu is made by Roche AG and Gilead Sciences Inc.
The USA don't use a lot of antiviral drugs. But Doctors have been advised to use either Relenza, or Zanamivir produced by Glaxo.
No doubt a similar finding would result in a UK testing project. If it does, I understand that as we do use more antiviral drugs (please correct me if I am wrong, as not a medical expert by any means) it would mean a far higher use of Zanamivir.

Just can't quite crack 13 resistance, good Sterling hedge though with a divi

Hi Falcothou,

Nice to see someone post. I was beginning to think there was only you and me left.

With interest rates forever falling and guilts having problems, and possibly heading for worse (how long before government bonds do not look as much a guilt edged bet as they are intended to be) I feel that when punters start looking at the Stock Markets again with less negativity, companies such as GSK will be the first to attract investment.
GSK being a strong global company, with as you say a decent divi that is paying more than most bank connected investments, will be in the forefront of any uplift..

Hi Greekman ,
Very tranquil here. I have partially hedged with an AZN short as they don't seem to have the product stream that GSK does. The more cable weakens the stronger the pharms seem to get. Rogers seems to be anticipating parity!As you say Sterling in the bank is taking on a Zimbawean shape wonder if we will reach parity with Zim dollar!

With Gordon Browns record of selling gold at its bottom price just prior to the price rocketing, I would not be surprised if he declared that as the started to tumble he had bought the Zim Dollar by the bucket load.
Cant really think of any strategy, financial or otherwise that has proved positive by this government. Just hope when/if they decide to pump money into the country via purchasing collateral in companies, institution, shares and the like, they don't consider GSK. Now that would be a kiss of death.
Rant over.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=ajZsqwPBrs20&refer=uk

Could happen.

Stockbroker Collins Stewart is covering its bets and upgrading UK drugs company AstraZeneca to hold from sell on the off chance that it may become the subject of a bid with GlaxoSmithkline seen as the most feasible bidder.

I hope not, that would really screw up my pairs trade! I would be happier if they hoovered up the cash strapped tiddlers with long patents and emerging market exposure which I gather from paper today is exactly what Pfizer didn't do.

Glaxo have been delving into tiddler hoovering with drug patents of late. I feel Glaxo taking over Astra especially when they have already stated and implemented a more cash reserve strategy would be a long shot and possible an over reaching step too far, but as often said of late, normal market behaviour (if there ever was such a thing) went out of the window many months ago.

I would hope that GSK would take note of Fred the Shred and Rio's Behemoth ambititions,debt will not be in vogue for a while yet I hope, though these Bank bail-outs seem to be being used for bonuses and acquisitions (juicy m&a fees) rather than lending out to small fry.

A few points from the results today:-

Summary

EPS before major restructuring -9% CER, up 6% in sterling terms

-
excluding previously announced Q4 legal charge of 278 million, 2008 EPS 109.3p -6% CER as expected

-
net cash inflow from operating activities 7.3 billion up 19% in sterling terms




Early progress to globalise and diversify

-
Emerging Markets sales up 12% in 2008; 4 transactions executed

-
vaccines sales 2.5 billion up 15% aided by Cervarix and Rotarix

-
consumer brand acquisitions, including Biotene; EU approval of alli in January 2009




Sustained pipeline progress from discovery to approval:

-
12 products launched in 2008, including Promacta, Tyverb, Rotarix and Kinrix

-
17% of FDA approvals for NCEs and new vaccines in 2008

-
US filing of pazopanib and phase III start for Syncria announced today

-
more than 10 key products currently filed with regulators worldwide

-
30 assets in late-stage development

-
70 internal and external drug discovery engines




Existing restructuring programme expanded

-
pre-tax annual savings increased from 0.7 billion to 1.7 billion by 2011

-
pre-tax charges increased from 1.5 billion to 3.6 billion

-
savings in 2009 mitigate expected decline to gross margin due to product mix changes and support further investment behind strategic priorities

Cash flow
Net cash inflow from operating activities for the year was 7,311 million, up 19% in sterling terms. This was used to fund net interest paid of 410 million, capital expenditure on property, plant and equipment and intangible assets of 2,069 million, and acquisitions of 454 million. In addition, dividends paid to shareholders totalled 2,929 million (up 5% compared with 2007) and share repurchases amounted to 3,706 million. These, together with issuances of $9 billion under the US shelf registration statement and 700 million under the EMTN programme in the year, only partly offset by the repayment on maturity of existing debt, contributed to the increased cash position at 31st December 2008.


Net debt
Net debt increased by 4.1 billion during the year to 10.2 billion at 31st December 2008, comprising gross debt of 16.2 billion and cash and liquid investments of 6 billion.

The Group is well placed financially having completed its debt financing programme earlier in 2008. At 31st December 2008, GSK had short-term borrowings (including overdrafts) repayable within 12 months of only 1 billion with a further 0.7 billion repayable in the subsequent year.

Dividends
The Board has declared a fourth interim dividend of 17 pence per share resulting in a dividend for the year of 57 pence, a four pence increase over the dividend of 53 pence per share for 2007. The equivalent interim dividend receivable by ADR holders is 49.4564 cents per ADS based on an exchange rate of 1/$1.4546. The ex-dividend date will be 11th February 2009, with a record date of 13th February 2009 and a payment date of 9th April 2009.

Thanks Kim divi increase helpful with current savings rates

And when you look at that cash generation (7.3Billion from operating activities), the divi looks safe for the time being.

Agreed. It's as you say a good divi that looks safe. A lot more than can be said about general interests rates. Over the next 12 months I can see many investors coming back into the market looking for good divi returns, especially after the .5% drop in interest rates announced earlier today.

Lower sales, that was expected though. GSK has a bit of a debt but RBS can loose that much cash in 6 months, with nothing to show at the end!

Near 1 year low. Should this be in this market? As you said above good divi. Defensive which given that this bear isn't over yet should serve it well. Only slight concern will be the impact of falling dollar over the medium term on earnings.

Drugs pipeline?

http://sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=2632957