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Tern – after the ramp to 27p comes the Placing at 12p. But what’s this?
By Nigel Somerville, The Deputy Sheriff of AIM | Monday 10 August 2015
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Well surprise, surprise! As expected (see HERE) AIM listed Tern plc (TERN) has announced a placing in the wake of the monumental rise in the lead-up to its Interims last week, and the explosion following chairman Angus Forrest’s mega ramp of an interview with paid-for Proactive Investors. With the shares having peaked at 27p on Thursday, the company announced a placing of shares this morning – at just 12p. One might only imagine how anyone who was sucked in to paying 27p last week might be feeling now.
As I write, the share price is down 30% today at 11p (mid) - below the placing price and not a good sign.
Of course, one cannot blame Tern for taking advantage of a strong share price so as to shore up the balance sheet. Although the Chairman’s Statement in last week’s interims noted a “healthy level of current assets” it was clear to me that the company needed to raise cash in order to meet its funding commitments to Cryptosoft whilst still being able to keep the lights on. And so now the company has brought in £720,000 before expenses (perhaps around £684,000 net). Certainly, now, the company is well enough cashed up for the time being – although suggestions of further investments on the horizon may see that change.
What is clear, however, is that the Proactive interview was just a bare-faced ramp and now we know why. Placing discounts on AIM can be steep, but this looks particularly savage. Even against the close last Friday of 15.75p (mid) a placing at 12p is a 24% haircut. Anyone who bought at 27p last Thursday has just watched a few people walk off with about 12% of the company having coughed up 56% less per share. Now they are watching people able to buy shares 59% cheaper in the market than they did.
As to the Proactive interview, it all sounded jolly exciting – as one would expect from a piece of PR puffery. Discussions with household names, members of the Fortune 500, expectations of a portfolio sale in the next six months and another in the next twelve are mentioned. Maybe.
When asked about contracts for Cryptosoft the reply was “I can’t tell you who it is talking to and signing with…” er, so there are contracts being signed? Should that not be in an RNS, then? But remember, this interview is not Nomad-approved, whereas the Interims (which were released the same day) were. The Interims referred to “major c
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TERN eye opener report............MickTKipper Sun 15:07
Tern rockets on Interims and a Proactive Interview but Hargreave Hale sells again
By Nigel Somerville, The Deputy Sheriff of AIM | Sunday 9 August 2015
Phew - what a ride! One moment share of Tern plc (TERN) are drifting at around 6.5p a share and then in the blink of an eye they have rocketed to 15.75p, having peaked at a whopping 27p. Ahead of Wednesday’s interims which showed a balance sheet of just £1.2 million, the Tern rocket had ascended to about 15p a share to value the company at around £7 million. They slipped a little on release of the RNS before a paid-for interview with company chairman Angus Forrest on Proactive Investors ignited the booster rockets and off we went again, up into the clear blue skies above, notching up a peak of 27p (market cap £12.3 million), and a four-fold re-rating. Post-excitement slippage then saw the shares close a wild week at 15.75p, a market cap of £7.2 million. What was all the excitement about?
Of course, this is all about investee company Cryptosoft which has recently appointed Mr Darron Anthill as CEO. We have had news of a tie-up with ThingWorx (although no financials have been released) after Cryptosoft’s newly improved security platform had been formally launched. Mind you, for all the fireworks of last week, Cryptosoft remains pre-revenue. Tern has announced funding of £700,000 in total to fund the jewel in its crown although the actual funding delivered thus far looks to be of the order of £375,000. Never mind all that, Tern appears to be the talk of the town down at bulletin board central, where commercial success for Cryptosoft seems to be a given. I think that is a dangerous assumption to make.
Tom Winnifrith has highlighted the current penchant of the market for giving sky-high valuations to pre-revenue technology companies. I would suggest that Tern is a case in point. Its interim balance sheet showed net assets of £1.2 million. First half revenues of £60,000 are recorded, although this looks to have got only as far as the receivables column rather than cash in the bank. It would also appear that these revenues are simply fees and charges levied by Tern on its investee company, Cryptosoft, paid for out of the cash that Tern is investing into it. Out of approx. £375,000 pumped into Cryptosoft since last autumn, it seems that £96,000 has been booked back out again in fees. All a bit of a merry-go-round, but which conveniently swells Tern’s balance sheet.
At the peak, this investment company with a £1.2 million balance sheet was somehow worth £12.3 million. In fact £300,000 of convertible director loans which are expected to be converted in due course at 1.25p (£270,000) into 21.6 million shares, and 2.016p (£30,000) into c. 1.5 million shares on top of the now existing c. 45 million shares. That would imply a resulting balance sheet of about £1.5 million and a pea