New Thread as requested by Wirral Owl.

6 Months Chart:-



10 Day Chart:-



Cheers

Ash

`Mr.Ashley James posting at 4.54 am , totally bombed,
what a weird bloke.

Hello Ashley. It is Saturday night [edited] I thought I would try to re-establish friendly relations.

How is it going with you? What are your bright ideas? I see Redstone is on the up and TIG too.

I have gone a bundle on the gold shares viz. AVM HIF HEV HPD REI DROOY AU MDG and HMY. Any thoughts? There seems to be quite a buzz around HIF. Sold out my POG for a goodish (well reasonable) profit.

Good old CER, moving now, what a turn up eh?

Ps I was banned off moneyam for "HTML abuse" apparently but have been reinstated after eating some humble pie and promising to be good, which indeed I will be.

Yours etc

Pat.

Patrick,

How are you, good to see you here!

Andy. (ahkeen on ADVFN)

BTW what did you do to be banned form "html abuse"?

Hi Andy. Re earlier qs no richer than I was 6 months ago! I came on to this thread to see if the old Ashley magic would work again!

[deleted in the interests of niceness]

Er Andy it's alarmingly simple. You put a particular HTML tag inside the "carrots" <> if that shows. All subsequent text appears at the top of the thread (at least on ADVFN & moneyam).

Patrick,

Ok I didn't know that!

Ashley is not too active on here at present, at least in comparison to ADVFN, but this BB is still developing, and currently lacks volume of discussion threads.

I have noticed an increase in discussion and posters here in the last couple of weeks, and ADVFN posters are gradually coming over here.

Resource threads are rare at the moment, but I guess they too will start up once there is a greater volume of posters.

Andy.

Well golds going up but this one hasnt started yet. A few more days with the Dow in the doldrums will get it moving.G

Avocet bags Tajik gold bargain

By: Ken Gooding

Mineweb 1997-2003


LONDON – The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank’s commercial lending arm, has accepted a modest $400,000 from AIM listed Avocet Mining (LSE:AVM) in exchange for 5 percent of Zeravshan Gold Company (ZGC) in Tajikistan, as well as $10.7m of loans made to ZGC.
Avocet acquired its first 44 percent of ZGC from Nelson Resources, a Canadian company that spent about US$40m on the mining complex since 1994. Production started two years later and since then the mine has produced 500,000 ounces of gold from an open pit at the Jilau deposit. ZGC is at present producing at an annual rate of between 60,000 and 70,000 ounces.

In all, Avocet has paid the equivalent of less than $6m for control of a $40m mining operation and the associated $90m of debt. And it had to stump up less than $2m in cash.

This is all part of Avocet’s strategy to turn itself into a “pure” gold company producing about 300,000 ounces a year by 2006. The company is also making headway again towards disposal of its tungsten business – it first listed in London in 1996 with the claim it was the world’s biggest producer of tungsten.

Avocet now owns 49 percent of ZGC as well as all the Tajik gold miner’s external debt of over $90m. It also has the right to 90 percent of ZGC’s cash flow and management control. Avocet has started negotiations with the Tajik government, which owns the rest of ZGC, in the hope of restructuring the debt. Jonathan Henry, Avocet’s finance director, says he hopes the restructuring will raise his company’s holding in ZGC to 75 percent and perhaps also give Avocet some tax holidays.

Nelson accepted $1.45m cash and 14m Avocet shares in exchange for its stake and share of the debt in ZGC. That gives it 17.6 percent of Avocet, valued today at 3.5m – but Nelson has undertaken not to dispose of any of the shares until November this year at the earliest.

So why are the IFC and Nelson wanting to quit? The main reason is that Jilau is a high cost operation with cash costs of $285/oz. As Henry says, it is cash-flow break even on the mining side but money has to be spent on capital projects and exploration. Avocet can cope with this as it is generating plenty of cash from its Penjom gold mine in Malaysia where cash costs are about $200/oz and output is over 100,000oz a year.

Avocet reckons it can increase ZGC’s annual output to about 100,000oz and cut costs, perhaps by introducing a heap leach operation. And, looking further forward, ZGC also has the rights over 3,000 sq. kms in the region surrounding Jilau where past Soviet exploration identified numerous gold deposits containing more than 8m ounces, including two partly developed underground mines. Between 2m and 3m ounces in the measured, indicated and inferred categories have been identified in these underground mines but the ore has very difficult and complex metallurgy. Avocet is considering trying a biox pilot plant to treat the ore.

Henry says Avocet is confident of meeting the 300,000oz a year target it has set itself as the company expects, from the middle of next year, to be producing another 50,000 to 60,000oz from the North Lanut project in North Sulawesi, Indonesia, at cash costs of $150/oz. North Lanut was acquired from Newmont and Avocet suggests it could be brought into operation at a cost of $10m with an initial mine life of five to six years.

Avocet, which nearly went bust in 2001 because of production problems at the Penjom mine and low tungsten prices, is quite capable of financing North Lanut itself but is now in the fortunate position of being able to pick and choose the method of funding, Henry insists. The options include raising more equity to strengthen the balance sheet but any paper transaction is ruled out at present because the directors feel Avocet’s shares are undervalued at 25.25p today. The price has been down to 12p in the past 12 months but also they have traded at 43.5p.

Avocet is confident of finding more mineable gold on the 40 sq mile North Lanut concession area but for the time being is concentrating on getting the initial output flowing.

More importantly, for investors, the company is also confident that it can find more gold to extend the present life of its cash generating Penjom mine from the present four to five years.

Meanwhile, getting rid of the tungsten operations is proving to be more difficult than Avocet first hoped. Some operations have been disposed of but Avocet is left with the Panasqueira tungsten mine in Portugal, owned by Avocet's wholly owned Portuguese subsidiary, Beralt Tin & Wolfram, and a 10.6 percent interest in the Lermontov mine, located in the Russian Far East.

Avocet hoped to sell these to Salish Ventures, a Canadian company, in exchange for shares representing less than 50 percent of Salish and with the intention of eventually cutting the holding below 20 percent. This deal fell apart and. instead, Avocet has ended up with about 75 percent of Salish and has had to continue to provide management for the tungsten business as well as providing US$275,000 of cash.

Henry says his company decided to push ahead with the revised Salish deal because “it is easier to divest a listed entity.” Salish is listed on the Toronto Venture Exchange and is changing its name to Primary Metals Inc. He says there might be someone willing to do a deal because Beralt, although loss-making at present, holds a key position in the tungsten market. “And we are talking to a number of interested parties.G

Record Production Figures From Principle Mine.

Avocet Mining PLC
09 May 200


FOURTH QUARTER GOLD PRODUCTION


Avocet Mining is pleased to announce fourth quarter gold production of 46,240
ounces, bringing the total for the financial year ended 31 March, 2003 to
134,581 ounces.


Gold production from Penjom in Malaysia amounted to 30,560 ounces for the fourth
quarter bringing Penjom's total production for the financial year to a new
annual record of 108,905 ounces. Total cash costs at Penjom are estimated to be
US$190/oz for the fourth quarter and US$204/oz for the financial year (2002:
US$239/oz and US$225/oz respectively).



Production from Zeravshan Gold Company (ZGC) in Tajikistan for the fourth
quarter was 15,680 ounces, bringing total production for the five months since
acquisition to 25,675 ounces. Total cash costs at ZGC are estimated to be US$278
/oz for the fourth quarter and US$284/oz for the five months since acquisition.



Avocet is a mining company listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of
the London Stock Exchange. The company's principal activities are gold mining
and exploration in Malaysia (as owner of the Penjom mine, the country's largest
gold producer), Tajikistan (as 49% owner and operator of the Zeravshan Gold
Company, Tajikistan's principal gold mine), and Indonesia (where it has an
advanced stage gold exploration property in North Sulawesi, currently at the
feasibility stage).









__________________________________________________________________________________________________

For further information please contact:

Avocet Mining PLC 4C Communications Ltd

John Catchpole (Chief Executive) Carina Corbett

Jonathan Henry (Finance Director) 020 8949 7171

020 7907 9000 020 7907 4761


www.avocet.co.uk
--------------------------


This information is provided by RNS

Buys flying in on this one and price already up 7%.

Dont miss the boat.G

LOL

Just done a review of what profit I feel Avocet will make after the production figures produced this morning and its quite an outstanding figure.
I have been slightly conservative, using a gold price of $310. I get the following:

Penjom = 108905*$116 = $11,543,930
Zerevashan = 25675*$26 = $667550

Total = $12,211,480 or 7,592,880

Pretty darn impressive for a company capitalised at just 17m!.

When N.Lanut comes on stream, you can add the following to your calculation :

50K production per annum @ cost of $150/oz. = $7.5m profit or 4.68m

(and that's taking gold @ just $300/oz !)

That then gives total pre-tax of near on $20m or 12m !!.

N Lanut will not be in this years account though.

G

from memory i think avm have hedged a proportion of this years production at 285$ - $310 might not be a bad average to have used. Depends how much AVM have decided to hedge this year

A company which is way undervalued in my opinion. Should be at least 45p to 50p based on its latest procution figures for the year.G

Analysts Predictions.


Analyst Forecast
AVOCET MINING PLC (AVM.L)

CONSENSUS RECOMMENDATION.


OUTPERFORM.



Consensus Next Earnings Company Fiscal Last
Recommendation (approx.) Year End Month Updated
Outperform 12-Nov-03 March 13-May-03




CONSENSUS ESTIMATES TRENDS


Current 1 Week
Ago 4 Weeks
Ago 8 Weeks
Ago 13 Weeks
Ago
Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03
Year Ending Mar-04
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90
Year Ending Mar-04
Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03
Year Ending Mar-04
Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03
Year Ending Mar-04

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence



ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS AND REVISIONS


1-5 Linear Scale Current As of 4
Weeks Ago As of 8
Weeks Ago As of 13
Weeks Ago
(1) Buy 1 1 1 1
(2) Outperform 0 0 0 0
(3) Hold 1 1 1 1
(4) Underperform 0 0 0 0
(5) Sell 0 0 0 0
Mean Rating 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00




CONSENSUS ESTIMATES ANALYSIS


# of
Ests. Median
Est. High
Est. Low
Est. 1 Year
Ago
Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03 25.00
Year Ending Mar-04
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03 1 1.90 1.90 1.90 4.80
Year Ending Mar-04
Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-03 4.50
Year Ending Mar-04
Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Mar-03 0.00
Year Ending Mar-04

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence



HISTORICAL SURPRISES


Estimate vs. Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise (%)
Sales (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 26.00 26.00 --
Year Ending Mar-01 26.00 25.00 -1.00 -3.85
Earnings (per share)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 1.44 1.44 --
Year Ending Mar-01 2.60 0.20 -2.40 -92.31
Profit (in millions)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 0.94 0.94 --
Year Ending Mar-01 1.70 0.19 -1.51 -88.82
Dividends (per share)
Year Ending Mar-02 0.00 0.00 0.00 --
Year Ending Mar-01 0.00 0.00 0.00 --

Sales and Profit Figures in Pound Sterling
Earnings and Dividend figures in British Pence



ESTIMATE REVISIONS SUMMARY


Number of Estimate Revisions Last Week Last 4 Weeks
Revised Up Revised Down Revised Up Revised Down
Earnings
Year Ending Mar-03 0 0 0 0
Year Ending Mar-04 0 0 0 0


G

I reckon this thing hit its peak at 37p when I bgt. in, barring another hike in the pog eg we attack Saudi or similar gut wrenching event, I see it rangebound


but------------!!!!!!!

When working out profit figures for this - or any mining company - beware of using cash costs.

If Ashley taught me anything at all (hi, Ash!) it's to find out what true production costs are and work on them.....however, most companies fight shy of publishing true costs, and only quote cash. There can be a HUGE difference.

POG now just shy of $355. Noted above re- to costs. This company will come out with around a 7.5 million profit and that is very conservative.G

Wendypops,

Hi trying to become a bit of a DJIA specialist so not really concentrating on AVM, but think this will hit 50p to 65p by end March to May 2004 or maybe sooner think this ABC will take us to 40p, believe very quickly when 30.50p pops.

AVM production costs high which gives you leverage if you can see a 6500 DJIA or 6000 DJIA by October, and gold above US$400

Watch gearing, watch Canacord interest, otherwise well boring but potentially hell of a lot safer than Minnie IMHO, saying which Malaysia and Kazakhstan?

Oh well who cares all I care about is the chart nowadays. (;-)0

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash

Goldfinger,

AVM starting to break up now, needs to break 31p really for next stage 36p/36.50p.

1:50PM Gold futures close with a nearly $10 gain ($XAU, $GOX, HMY, GG) by Myra P. Saefong
Gold futures closed the session with a nearly $10-an-ounce gain as concerns about the dollar continued to keep investor interest in the precious metal high. June gold closed at $364.40 an ounce, up $9.50. Metals indexes are following suit, with the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) and CBOE Gold Index ($GOX) both up more than 3 percent. Shares of Goldcorp (GG) are up 6.4 percent to $11.68 and Harmony Gold (HMY) are up 5.5 percent at $13.45.