What a chart, further to go, or not
Comments please

Oil price next move

66.50 Change: +1.75 (+2.70%)

most oilies on the up as the poo is rising from the start of the day

At 6.08am, WTI crude was up 1.79% to $43.80/bbl, and Brent was ahead 1.64% to $46.52.

A tad too gloomy by "Hub" ( Fri 10:52 ).....

OPEC meet in under 10 days and historically shorters have taken some weight off bets heading into those events. I don't think much will come from the Sept meet and they will likely pen in another meet in Oct, Nov and then the biggy in Dec. It's this one which I think may see some proper action implemented. I think the Saudi's and Russians and literally pumping like mad to get their 'freeze' levels higher so any deal simply caps Iranian and other producers while securing their higher production etc etc. But that's life!

So in summary, should see some bounces across PoO and commodities over next 10 days but after that meeting... who knows? Back to $45pb again, rinse and repeat?

PMO have debt talks ongoing regarding covenant tests etc and that's why they are trading differently to other peers who do not have such debt tests arriving.

As I have said before, PMO equity / shares are an asset and may well come into play with current debt discussions. For example, if you woke up to a headline on Monday saying debt covenants waived through to mid 2017 and xx stock issued to debt holders in options set at xx price, then you might not be too surprised.

Debt holders can make decent money simply by gaining some cheap shares and giving PMO another 6 to 9 months.

Each monthly extension could play into a VWAP pricing scenario. Eg; take average sp over last 3 months and issue as strike price for options.

No one likes dilution but I think any options issued would be moderate - perhaps represent a % of the interest gained per year etc

PMO with debt headroom has to be worth nearer 90p to 100p per share rather than 60p.

Historically - PMO were valued at 180p per share in 2015 when PoO was testing $60pb.

That's quite some slippage considering PoO is not far off $50pb and $60pb has to be within sights in H1 2017.

CEO has said that $45pb is the marker for 'safety' but worth noting this has to 'average' out over 2016.

Hence, even $50pb+ for Q4 may not get full 2016 average above $42pb.

Fed Reserve rate decision next week should come and go without a raise. This combined with following weeks OPEC meet could deliver a decent recovery bounce for market which look a little oversold on a 10 to 14 days basis

Bought some at under offer 71.75p or middle price

Has been lagging behind their peers lately, now retracement is done and oil price is bouncing higher, share price should do the same. Indicators: Stochastic at oversold and RSI should bounce from 50

72.125p +1.125p

Someone is loading with 250K buys at this low price, both paying premium 71.75p offer paying 72p, the last one paying 72.20p when offer was 72p

10:05:14
72.00
250,000
£180k

10:17:14
72.20
250,000
£180.50k

Added a few more @ 71.73p, still the same price as yesterday and Oil price well on the up since

At 8.37am, WTI crude was up 1.15% to $50.87/bbl and Brent was up 1.06% to $52.23/bbl.

now $51.02 for texas WTI and $52.40 for Brent

i was very surprised to note that TLW has easily outperformed PMO over the last 12 and 1 and 2 and 3 months

It looks like some Investors are selling today IAE , ENQ and FPM (they had a very good rise lately) and moving into PMO

Hhttp://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_9d67516e17a09f014d5dce2dd3037649.png

Bought some more at just below 62p

Has reached close enough to support, after having a very large drop recently.
Order book has change from being weak on the bid side to strong DEPTH 69 v 47

Another oil company shortly to be at the mercy of its lenders?

All a gamble at the moment-if they get an agreement on restructuring debt then yes sp will improve provided OPEC come at last to their senses... if neither happens then a serlously risky stock

55.75p +7.25p (+14.95%)

Premier Oil (LON:PMO) Rating
London: In analysts note made public on Tuesday, 15 November, Deutsche maintained their Buy rating on shares of Premier Oil (LON:PMO). They currently have a GBX 90.00 target price per share on the company. Deutsche’s target gives a potential upside of 72.25% from the company’s current price.

Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) Ratings Coverage
Out of 23 analysts covering Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO), 12 rate it a “Buy”, 3 “Sell”, while 8 “Hold”. This means 52% are positive. GBX 370 is the highest target while GBX 12 is the lowest. The GBX 111.57 average target is 113.53% above today’s (GBX 52.25) stock price. Premier Oil PLC has been the topic of 165 analyst reports since July 24, 2015 according to StockzIntelligence Inc.

The firm has “Buy” rating by Liberum Capital given on Wednesday, May 11. The firm earned “Neutral” rating on Thursday, March 3 by Davy Research. As per Friday, August 21, the company rating was maintained by Beaufort Securities. On Monday, November 16 the stock rating was maintained by Liberum Capital with “Buy”.

About 5.48 million shares traded hands. Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) has declined 7.62% since April 15, 2016 and is downtrending. It has underperformed by 11.55% the S&P500.

Http://www.whatsonthorold.com/2016/11/15/stock-rating-runner-deutsche-reaffirms-a-buy-rating-on-premier-oil-lonpmo-and-gbx-90-00-target/

FTSE 100 about to get exciting

Chart pattern emerging

Taking a wider view of the blue-chip index, we see an interesting chart pattern building, not dissimilar to the simple wedge pattern we saw develop during September.

Then, a series of higher lows over a three-month period following the post-referendum crash formed a solid uptrend.

Predicting the market's next move is harder than ever - just watch the trendAt the beginning of October, that uptrend converged with the downtrend from the April 2015 high. An inevitable chart breakout was worth over 200 points and a new record high.

Now, another uptrend from the same June low is converging with that same downtrend begun 18 months ago. Expect a similarly dramatic outcome, although which way the break goes is unclear. Given the weak bounces off the uptrend, the prognosis does not look particularly good.

However, it's been very obvious in recent sessions that predicting the market's next move is harder than ever. Just watch the trend.

56.60p +2.125p

Trading and Operations Update - 17 November 2016

Premier today provides a Trading and Operations Update for the period 1 January to 31 October 2016.

Highlights
·
Comprehensive term sheet for refinancing in final stages of negotiation with the Group's banks and private bondholders
·
Production averaged 69 kboepd year-to-date; current run rate of >80 kboepd, on track to meet previously increased full year guidance of 68-73 kboepd
·
Outperformance from the Huntington, Chim Sáo and Natuna Sea Block A fields; production currently constrained at the Solan field
·
Catcher on schedule for first oil in 2017 with total capex now estimated at $1.7 billion, 24% lower than at sanction; FPSO outfitting continues apace and well delivery remains ahead of prognosis
·
Exclusivity period with preferred bidder for the Pakistan business has ended; discussions continue with the previously preferred bidder and new third parties; Pakistan assets substantially outperforming in 2016, value to be retained by Premier
·
Forecast 2016 operating costs of $15.9/bbl and gross G&A of $196 million, both significantly below budget
·
Forecast 2016 exploration and development capex expected to be below previous guidance of $730 million; 2017 capex anticipated to be materially lower at $300 million
·
Net debt of $2.8 billion at 31 October, marginally down from Q3, with cash and undrawn facilities on hand of c. $600 million

Tony Durrant, Chief Executive, commented:
"Against a challenging commodity price backdrop, Premier continues to deliver operationally. The company is benefitting from a step change in production with a significantly lower cost base while excellent progress has been made on the Catcher project, which remains on track for first oil next year. Refinancing of the Group's debt has taken longer than anticipated but will, once completed, put Premier in good stead to reinvest in the business while, at the same, time paying down debt. In the medium term, Premier sees increasing value in the Tolmount area, the Sea Lion projects and its exploration acreage in Mexico."

Vulnerable if there is another slide in the oil price.

The Oil Man: Oil price, Premier Oil - By Malcolm Graham-Wood | Thu, 17th November 2016 - 10:23

Oil prices drifted yesterday; to begin with there wasn't much news, so the American Petroleum Institute news from after the close eased things off a bit.

Later the Energy Information Administration (EIA) numbers proved to be worse: a build of 5.3 million barrels of crude and modest rises in products were bigger than expected, despite a rise in refinery utilisation from 87.1% to 89.2%. The EIA put this down to a rise in imports - last week 910/- barrels.

Fortunately, Russia came to the rescue, saying that it would support "any OPEC" decision at the upcoming meeting. Secretary General Barkindo is still travelling; at the moment he is meeting the Venezuelan oil minister in Caracas.

Premier Oil

A trading update from Premier (PMO) this morning which is pretty much the same as other recent trading news, i.e. operationally things are going very well - with the usual exception of Solan, of course.

Production continues to beat estimates, at the moment it is 80/- barrels per day (b/d) with an annual average of 69/- b/d and recently upgraded guidance of 68-73/- b/d still very much achievable.

Catcher is still on target for production in 2017 and down 24% on costs, whilst at Sea Lion FEED work is ongoing and break-even costs are $45 per barrel and falling.

As to the debt, which stands at $2.8 billion, the good news is that the term sheet for the refinancing is in the "final stages" of renegotiation and it looks as if it is pretty well what the company needs.

It is for the full amount, gives headroom for Catcher, gives security and appropriate economics to the lenders and, as one might expect, has governance controls in the process.

This has all taken longer than expected and, of course, given rise to speculation in the market that some of the lending group were keen to jump ship - 'twas ever thus, I suspect - but it looks as if it has got far enough to be a runner…

At the moment I am still giving the Premier team the benefit of the doubt for doing a great job.

As oil price was rising for the second day after the OPEC cut of 1.2M, the share price reached at one time 69.50p, as it bounced from 50p yesterday.

in % terms it has certainly done better than TLW, though the latter has been no slouch either
from a longer term perspective, the latter is probably a better bet

Macquarie today downgrades its investment rating on Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) to neutral (from outperform) and cut its price target to 80p (from 103p).
"On Premier, alongside our recommendation change, we have reduced our TP from 103p to 80p on lowered expectations for Solan production due to P2 underperformance."

Jefferies International today (09/01/17) reaffirms its buy investment rating on Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) and raised its price target to 116p (from 88p).