http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

> Still mo oil&gas law agreed?
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C&Ped.
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Thanks to LR2 for the link and Suka47 on triple i for producing the whole article, thus having to avoid registering to be able to read on:


Can Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited’s Share Price Return To 412p?
By Rupert Hargreaves - Tuesday, 14 January, 2014

Right now I’m looking at some of the markets most popular companies to try and establish whether or not they have the potential to return to historic highs.

Today I’m looking at Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LSE: GKP) (NASDAQOTH: GUKYF.US) to ascertain if its share price can return to 412p.

Initial catalyst
Of course, before we can establish whether or not Gulf Keystone can return to 412p, we need to establish what catalyst caused the company’s shares to reach this level in the first place. It would appear that Gulf Keystone reached this high at the beginning of 2012, concluding a rally that began during December the previous year.

As far as I can see, this rally was driven by two factors. Firstly, there was a significant amount of speculation in the market that Gulf Keystone was about to be acquired by a large peer. In addition, it seems as if this rally was fuelled by positive exploration results from the company’s world class Shaikan oil field.

But can Gulf Keystone return to its former glory?
Gulf Keystone’s Shaikan oil field is widely quoted as one of the largest oil discovery’s in recent times and the company’s positive drill results, as well as initial production rates have only confirmed the fields potential. Indeed, with this huge discovery behind it, I feel that Gulf Keystone has all the foundations in place to make another run at 412p.

In particular, according to Gulf Keystone’s own predictions, the company should be producing 40,000 barrels of oil per day for the majority of this year. This works out at 14.6 million barrels of oil per year, and if the price of oil remains around $100 per barrel, Gulf Keystone’s revenue for 2014 will be in the region of $300 million — not bad for the company’s first full-year of production.

What’s more, management has predicted that within 18 months the company’s production will hit 100,000 barrels of oil per day, which works out at more than $700 million in revenue per year.

In addition, I should mention that City analysts believe there are over 2.5 billion barrels of recoverable oil in Gulf Keystone’s Shaikan field. Gulf Keystone has an 80% interest in the field, so it would appear that Gulf Keystone’s Shaikan oil reserves alone are worth around $200 billion.

Foolish summary
So overall, Gulf Keystone has an interest in one of the largest oil discoveries ever and the company’s profits are set to explode during the next few years. As a result, I feel that the company can return to 412p.

Times addition yesterday 14/01.

When drilling for oil started in Kurdish Iraq in the midde of the last decade, it was a high-risk play. There is a perception today that much of that risk has evaporated.
Last week the authorities in Erbil, the region’s capital, announced that the first oil had flowed through a pipeline to Turkey. Previously, exports by producers such as Genel Energy and Gulf Keystone Petroleum had been by lorry and much of the oil produced had been sold into the local market.
Yet the political risk has not gone away. The regime in Baghdad, which admittedly has other things on its mind, claims that the export of oil is unconstitutional. Washington, for its own reasons, is not best pleased. The probability is that the oil will continue to flow and that the Kurds and Turkey will sign a gas supply agreement allowing another pipeline to be built.
The main beneficiaries from the start of exports are Genel, which would also benefit from a gas supply agreement, and Afren. The latter is more focused on its African assets, including a vast find off Nigeria, and does not even factor its Kurdish acreage, including the large Barda Rash field where it is the operator, into its estimates of reserves. Genel’s share price has soared over the past year, as the graph shows, to a point that it is about to trigger £100 million of payments to senior executives. A return to investors is further off, because the company has an expensive drilling programme in prospect off Malta and Morocco.
Its holdings in Kurdish Iraq are at the key Taq Taq and Tawke fields, but, as a cautious note from HSBC pointed out recently, there is little clarity on how much can be sold and at what price. At £11, off 13p, that share price is beginning to look a little toppy and investors might think about taking some profits.
Gulf Keystone will need to build its own pipeline spur from its Shaikan field to hook up with the new pipeline into Turkey and this should be ready within 12 to 18 months. The company has shrugged off the threat of litigation over ownership of those assets and there is the potential of further exploration at Shaikan. The most likely outcome remains a bid, before or after it gains a full listing.
The other Kurdish play is Petroceltic. Again, its exposure is limited; the huge Ain Tsila field in Algeria is of far more relevance.
As ever with such stocks, the risk is not to be dismissed. Political developments in Iraq may weigh more heavily on the shares this year than exploration success.

From this am.


ladyboy21
07:34 Exxon Woos Gulf Keystone [link] Exxon Woos Gulf Keystone US oil supermajor Exxon Mobil is understood to have sounded out London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) over a possible deal that could value the Kurdistan-focused group at around £7bn.GKP has a market capitalisation of around £1.5bn and is listed on the junior Aim market, but its chief executive, Todd Kozel, believes the group could eventually go for double-figure billions. GKP is sitting on what is considered to be one of the world's great recent oil finds – Shaikan, about 50 miles north-west of Kurdistan's capital, Erbil – but the regional government is known to want a supermajor on board to properly fund and develop the field.It is thought that the board would not accept the estimated £8-a-share that Exxon is considering and that a number of other companies, perhaps including China's Sinopec and Californian giant Chevron, are monitoring the situation. There is even some speculation that an informal four-way auction for GKP might be under way, while it is also believed that the company has spoken to at least two smaller businesses about potentially developing its assets in a joint venture.Last month, it emerged that Exxon was the first of the oil industry's giants to enter Kurdistan, taking six licences. However, this has angered the government in Baghdad because there are old territorial disputes between Iraq and Kurdistan.Baghdad had threatened to terminate Exxon's existing deal in southern Iraq and it had been reported that the US giant might reconsider its licences in Kurdistan. However, the lucrative potential of the Kurdistan fields means that analysts expect Exxon will pursue opportunities in the semi-autonomous region and may already have taken additional positions to those licences previously revealed.There are suggestions that Exxon's interest in GKP was discussed at a board meeting 10 days ago and that initial soundings may have been taken at least six weeks ago. Last month, much of the oil world descended on Erbil for a conference that highlighted the extraordinary oil opportunities in Kurdistan, with Mr Kozel one of the key speakers.It is believed that Mr Kozel would be happy to sell up soon and has even started mulling over his next venture. The American businessman is one of the most colourful figures in the City and has a base of devoted retail investors who are waiting for a takeover of GKP to make them rich.GKP declined to comment. Exxon did not return calls.Posted 3 hours ago by Iain Jamieson Labels: bahamas oil, GENEL, gkp, GKP COURT CASE, gkp sold, gkp take over, gulf keystone, gulf keystone petroleum

UPDATE 1-Iraq to punish Turkey, Kurds over "smuggled" oil-minister

17 Jan 2014 - 14:31

(Adds details, background) BAGHDAD, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Iraq will take legal and other measures to punish Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan, as well as foreign companies, for any involvement in Kurdish exports of "smuggled" oil without Baghdad's consent, the oil minister said on Friday. Abdul Kareem Luaibi told reporters the government was preparing legal action against Ankara and would blacklist any companies dealing with oil piped to Turkey from Iraq's autonomous northern region without permission from Baghdad. The Kurdistan Regional Government said last week that crude had begun to flow through the pipeline, and exports were on track to start at the end of January, inviting bidders to register with the Kurdistan Oil Marketing Organisation. Luaibi said it was not in Turkey's interest to jeopardise bilateral trade worth $12 billion a year, saying Baghdad would consider boycotting all Turkish companies and cancelling contracts with Turkish firms if the oil exports went ahead. He also said the Finance Ministry had been told to calculate how much should be deducted from Iraqi Kurdistan's 17 percent share of the federal budget if the region failed to meet a government-set export target for this year of 400,000 barrels per day via the State Oil Marketing Organisation. [ID:nL5N0KP3NC] Preparations were under way, Luaibi said, "to raise a lawsuit against the Turkish government for allowing Kurdistan to pump oil through the export pipeline without the approval of the Iraqi central government, which represents ... a clear violation of the agreement signed between the two countries ... governing the export of Iraqi oil through Turkey". (Reporting by Ahmed Rasheed; Writing by Alistair Lyon; Editing by Dale Hudson) ((alistair.lyon@thomsonreuters.com)(+44 207 542 5212)(Reuters Messaging: alistair.lyon.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)) Keywords: IRAQ OIL/KURDISTAN

http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/170120141

OIL @ $ 60 will break putin in papers today.Hold GKP long term & Bid?

http://sharedealing.nandp.co.uk/broker-views/GKP/Gulf-Keystone-Petroleum
We downgrade our rating for Gulf Keystone to Neutral from Buy on a
delayed production ramp up versus our expectations. Since being
added to the Buy List on October 11, 2013, the shares are up 0.7% vs.
FTSE World Europe index up 3.8% and the European E&P sector up
2.7%. The relative weak performance has in our opinion been driven by
delays in the ramp up of production from the Shaikan field and the
associated impacts of this on the company’s funding position.

Current view
We see 22% upside potential to our 12-month target price of 220p,
however on a sector-relative basis we now see better opportunities
elsewhere. We reduce our 12-month target price from 283p to 220p as
we update our modelling assumptions for the Shaikan field. We update
our valuation to reflect a slower ramp up in production from the field
and model a lower recoverable resource as a whole for the block.
Kurdistan remains one of the few geographies globally with material
undeveloped resources that the international majors have access to but
are not yet exposed. To that end we continue to view GKP’s position in
the region as highly strategic, however in the near term we see better
opportunities elsewhere particularly given the relatively limited
visibility on the ramp-up and funding for the Shaikan development in
both the near and medium term.

Our 12-month SOTP-based target price of 220p uses a 15% cost of
capital and $100/bl oil price. We assume a 50% weighting for M&A for
those assets we deem to be strategic at an 8% cost of capital. We
update our estimates to reflect our revised production and capex
assumptions for the Shaikan development. We also introduce our 2016
and 2017 estimates and update for FX.

Key upside risks to our view and price target are M&A activity ahead of
expectations and higher oil prices than we expect. Key downside risks
are a delay in the ramp up of the Shaikan field, the inability to secure
debt funding for the development of the field and a reserve update for
the Shaikan field (as part of the CPR for the company’s main listing)
below expectations. From a regional perspective a delay in the ramp up
of exports from Kurdistan or higher political risk in

why on earth should oil fall to $60 - i assume you mean texas light, as that is the usual benchmark?
opec - aka saudi - will not allow that happen, and yes they can control it pretty well by just cutting back on production

http://www.shafaaq.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8731:-flooding-in-erbil-in-pictures-&catid=49:community&Itemid=74

i think that's actually in somerset!

lol.,.

100,000 x 365 =36500000 into 700,000,000 19.17 per barrel ? reply to above
post please correct me,post nice one Cyril 14 Jan maths are wrong?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/30/iraq-kurdistan-pipeline-idUSL5N0L42VW20140130?rpc=401

Kurdistan alliance: Baghdad is no longer insist on Sumo supervision on oil exports
Sunday, 02 February 2014 13:17

altaltShafaq News / Kurdistan Alliance in the Iraqi parliament confirmed on Sunday making a progress in the talks between the federal government and Kurdistan Region on the export of Kurdish oil.

“ Baghdad is no longer insisting on the supervision of Iraqi oil export company " Sumo " which is state-owned on Kurdistan exports,” the member of Kurdistan Alliance , Qassim Mohammed told “Shafaq News”.

He added that this position represents the beginning of a breakthrough in the crisis .

Earlier , Reuters quoted Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy , Hussain al-Shahristani announcing some progress in talks on oil dispute with Kurdistan.

Kurdistan has signed last year agreements with Turkey to export Kurdish oil through a new pipeline that extends to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean to sell it in global markets .

This development has raised the anger of officials in Baghdad that assert that the federal government has the only right to manage Iraq's energy resources .

GKP new York brokers/ investment houses contact uk some appear ,to be ok
telling a good story,if it happens s/p so they say £3 2015

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http://www.economy-news.co.uk/shares/share-price-drivers/3668-gulf-keystone-petroleum-limited-share-price-gkp-443543

Page 1 / 2
Feb 05, 2014 07:13:01 AM [BFW]
Iraq Makes 3 Proposals to Kurds for Crude Oil Export, IMN Says
By Nayla Razzouk
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Parliament session on 2014 federal budget delayed to next wk due to political disputes, mainly with self-governed Kurdistan Regional Government, state-sponsored Iraqi Media Net reports on its website.
1st proposal: Central govt to pay dues owed to foreign cos working in Kurdish region, give KRG its 17% share of federal budget in return for KRG handling all crude produced in Kurdish region to central govt which will be responsible for selling it
2nd proposal: KRG commits to allowing central govt to sell 400k b/d produced in Kurdish region, and if quantity falls, central govt can take the difference from KRG’s share of federal budget
3rd proposal: Central govt handles all production, export of crude from Kurdish region similarly to other provinces in country, in return for central govt to provide all financial dues to KRG stipulated by country’s laws

Those 3 proposals all mean the same!!