http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

OIL @ $ 60 will break putin in papers today.Hold GKP long term & Bid?

http://sharedealing.nandp.co.uk/broker-views/GKP/Gulf-Keystone-Petroleum
We downgrade our rating for Gulf Keystone to Neutral from Buy on a
delayed production ramp up versus our expectations. Since being
added to the Buy List on October 11, 2013, the shares are up 0.7% vs.
FTSE World Europe index up 3.8% and the European E&P sector up
2.7%. The relative weak performance has in our opinion been driven by
delays in the ramp up of production from the Shaikan field and the
associated impacts of this on the company’s funding position.

Current view
We see 22% upside potential to our 12-month target price of 220p,
however on a sector-relative basis we now see better opportunities
elsewhere. We reduce our 12-month target price from 283p to 220p as
we update our modelling assumptions for the Shaikan field. We update
our valuation to reflect a slower ramp up in production from the field
and model a lower recoverable resource as a whole for the block.
Kurdistan remains one of the few geographies globally with material
undeveloped resources that the international majors have access to but
are not yet exposed. To that end we continue to view GKP’s position in
the region as highly strategic, however in the near term we see better
opportunities elsewhere particularly given the relatively limited
visibility on the ramp-up and funding for the Shaikan development in
both the near and medium term.

Our 12-month SOTP-based target price of 220p uses a 15% cost of
capital and $100/bl oil price. We assume a 50% weighting for M&A for
those assets we deem to be strategic at an 8% cost of capital. We
update our estimates to reflect our revised production and capex
assumptions for the Shaikan development. We also introduce our 2016
and 2017 estimates and update for FX.

Key upside risks to our view and price target are M&A activity ahead of
expectations and higher oil prices than we expect. Key downside risks
are a delay in the ramp up of the Shaikan field, the inability to secure
debt funding for the development of the field and a reserve update for
the Shaikan field (as part of the CPR for the company’s main listing)
below expectations. From a regional perspective a delay in the ramp up
of exports from Kurdistan or higher political risk in

why on earth should oil fall to $60 - i assume you mean texas light, as that is the usual benchmark?
opec - aka saudi - will not allow that happen, and yes they can control it pretty well by just cutting back on production

http://www.shafaaq.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8731:-flooding-in-erbil-in-pictures-&catid=49:community&Itemid=74

i think that's actually in somerset!

lol.,.

100,000 x 365 =36500000 into 700,000,000 19.17 per barrel ? reply to above
post please correct me,post nice one Cyril 14 Jan maths are wrong?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/30/iraq-kurdistan-pipeline-idUSL5N0L42VW20140130?rpc=401

Kurdistan alliance: Baghdad is no longer insist on Sumo supervision on oil exports
Sunday, 02 February 2014 13:17

altaltShafaq News / Kurdistan Alliance in the Iraqi parliament confirmed on Sunday making a progress in the talks between the federal government and Kurdistan Region on the export of Kurdish oil.

“ Baghdad is no longer insisting on the supervision of Iraqi oil export company " Sumo " which is state-owned on Kurdistan exports,” the member of Kurdistan Alliance , Qassim Mohammed told “Shafaq News”.

He added that this position represents the beginning of a breakthrough in the crisis .

Earlier , Reuters quoted Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy , Hussain al-Shahristani announcing some progress in talks on oil dispute with Kurdistan.

Kurdistan has signed last year agreements with Turkey to export Kurdish oil through a new pipeline that extends to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean to sell it in global markets .

This development has raised the anger of officials in Baghdad that assert that the federal government has the only right to manage Iraq's energy resources .

GKP new York brokers/ investment houses contact uk some appear ,to be ok
telling a good story,if it happens s/p so they say £3 2015

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http://www.economy-news.co.uk/shares/share-price-drivers/3668-gulf-keystone-petroleum-limited-share-price-gkp-443543

Page 1 / 2
Feb 05, 2014 07:13:01 AM [BFW]
Iraq Makes 3 Proposals to Kurds for Crude Oil Export, IMN Says
By Nayla Razzouk
Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Parliament session on 2014 federal budget delayed to next wk due to political disputes, mainly with self-governed Kurdistan Regional Government, state-sponsored Iraqi Media Net reports on its website.
1st proposal: Central govt to pay dues owed to foreign cos working in Kurdish region, give KRG its 17% share of federal budget in return for KRG handling all crude produced in Kurdish region to central govt which will be responsible for selling it
2nd proposal: KRG commits to allowing central govt to sell 400k b/d produced in Kurdish region, and if quantity falls, central govt can take the difference from KRG’s share of federal budget
3rd proposal: Central govt handles all production, export of crude from Kurdish region similarly to other provinces in country, in return for central govt to provide all financial dues to KRG stipulated by country’s laws

Those 3 proposals all mean the same!!

http://www.malcysblog.com/2014/02/oil-price-fraccing-bp-kurdistan-caza-finally/


Kurdistan There are a few rumours (more than usual) doing the rounds and I get the feeling that the temperature may well be about to rise a few degrees. Just to clarify my position I think that it might be a good year for companies operating over there but not without the usual problems on the way. Genel has come back a long way with all the recent worries about not being able to sell the crude that is currently filling the pipeline, as I said on TipTV last week I think that there is still huge upside here and that below 1000p it is a bargain. As for Gulf Keystone the price stays the same despite plenty of potentially good news on the horizon and I am hearing from a number of sources that a bid might be being warmed up. Either way the MOL situation interests, as Akri-Bijeel once for sale, now on the back burner could be a key asset in the shake-up and also my friends at Taqa are on the move. For Petroceltic it too will be a big year and I know that Hess are optimistic about their prospects. That just leaves Exxon and Chevron and a few other majors!

Proposals for new oil from the Kurdistan region to Baghdad

February 6, 2014 10:41 Last Updated: February 6, 2014 10:41

2989906.jpg
Holds the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Rose Nuri Shaways with proposals to the federal government in Baghdad on the settlement of disputes oil export related. According to newspaper rectitude A member of the Kurdistan Alliance bloc on Radio Tigris Mahmoud Othman said "proposals province include that they can be the export of oil through the company Como in Kurdistan instead of a proposal SOMO national, or that they can be deducted the region's share of the sales of the region's oil and the remainder goes to the federal government. " Othman predicted that "the parties reach agreements by the end of this week and early next week before the presentation of the federal budget to the first reading at next Tuesday ".



Read more:

HTTP://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/171815-proposals-for-new-oil-from-the-kurdis

While we wait,a post from anothwer board worth considering.

-----------------------------------------------------------


What conclusions can we draw from the last few RNSs and GKP TV about how much useful revenue GKP is making at the moment?

9-10k bopd on 9th Jan (RNS) increasing weekly towards 20k and finally 40k bopd..

10K X $20 (from ID) X75% = $150k per day or $54.75m annum
15K X $20 X75% = $225k $82.12m
20K X $20 X75% = $300k $105.5m
30K X $20 X75% = $450K $164.25m
40K X $20 X75% = $800K $292m

Not too shabby.I think it is wrong to assume that GKP is in any way `distressed`.
AIUI, GKP are being paid too which is good news indeed.

$2.5billion pa additional to the Kurds too on offer.

The link to the full article at the bottom

BAGHDAD'S LATEST OFFER
Late last year, culminating years of autonomous oil-sector development, the KRG threatened to export large volumes of oil via Turkey without Baghdad's involvement. The threat became more credible when Erbil signed a private agreement with Ankara in November to bring Turkish-backed companies into the Kurdish oil sector, and when an improvised pipeline became partially operational in December between KRG oilfields and Turkish export terminals at Ceyhan. These factors -- along with U.S. and Iranian encouragement of Baghdad-KRG reconciliation ahead of Iraq's April 30 elections -- have driven the Maliki government to propose a new mechanism for exporting and monetizing KRG oil. Key elements include:

Marketing. The federal State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) and KOMO will jointly market KRG crude, with details such as price and end users preapproved by a joint high committee. Although this would represent a blow to Erbil's aspirations of independent marketing, it would have few tangible costs for the Kurds.
Revenue management. The proceeds from the marketed crude will be processed using conventional accounting methods at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). KRG crude revenues will enter the Oil Proceeds Receipt Account, with 5 percent remittance made to Kuwait via the UN Compensation Committee as required by UN Security Council Resolution 1511. Baghdad will then transfer the remainder of the KRG revenues each month to Erbil's control via a subaccount of the Iraqi Central Bank account at FRBNY, with the understanding that Baghdad would withhold this amount from its routine monthly transfers to the KRG (see below). This offer goes some way toward meeting Erbil's demand to maintain stewardship of KRG-derived oil revenues, even though the process would not be entirely under KRG control.
Revenue sharing. The new upside for Erbil comes in the form of enhanced revenue sharing. Baghdad is offering to reduce strategic expenses by excluding $15 billion of federal petroleum costs incurred in the southern oil fields, thereby raising the value of the KRG's 17 percent "take" of monthly national revenues by an incremental $2.5 billion this year.
Budget revision. The draft budget currently requires the KRG to produce 400,000 barrels of oil per day for the federal government or see deductions from its monthly transfer. This provision would be removed if the Kurds take the deal outlined above.





http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/baghdad-krg-negotiations-closer-than-ever-to-a-fair-deal

From the S Times (written out by me)~

`...Nobody could accuse Simon Murray, the legonnaire turned swashbukling businessman of shirking a fight.

As vice chairman of Indian power Co Essar Energy the 73 year old is in the thick of it. This week Mumbai`s billionaire Ruia brothers are expected to bid to buy out the minority investors in Essar Energy on the cheap.

Cue shareholder outrage. Murray is no stranger to controversy. The former Chairman of Glencore, Murray now chairs GKP, the scandal-hit Kurdistan explorer.

He was also director of Sino- Forest, which went bust in 2012 amid allegations of `institutional fraud`- something it has always denied

I haven't posted on this site for years as I use a competitor. I find it remarkable that there's not much posting here being that GKP has many followers elsewhere. Cyril do you post anywhere else as I recognize some names that you've brought here.