looks like its hit oil, don't know whats gonna happen, any idea's ???

Barclay, you might need to show me your working before I could agree with those figures (and I agree with Rutherford that one does have to remember to convert US$ to Sterling at some point!). Don't forget that "earnings" in the price/earnings ratio is the expression of profits per share, not turnover.

From 1,000 boepd at US$60 per barrel, I can't find more than about 80p per share at a P/E of 15, and that's using some fairly wild assumptions about profit margins.

Northern is more than likely worth 400p per share, given time, but it'll take more than a couple of thousand bopd to get it there.

All IMO, etc.

I used 60dboe because current world events could see oil going to this price in
the short term, i could l go lower, but because oil production has peaked i thought this long term figure was reasonable.

I multiplied 1000 bopde by 60dollars (sorry my mistake using pounds)
I then used a 5 day week to multiply by this figure, (it could be seven which would change the figures a lot) and then by 52 weeks

this came to 16600000 turnover, because i dont know the exact costs and profit
share i should have halved this amount and divided it by the current market cap which gave 19.5cents, half of 19.5cents per share 9.75 which on p/e ten gives 97.5, but northern will be aiming to do 7000bopde by 2008
so all things being equal 7 times 9.75 = 6.825 dollars=3.61p

Thats on a lower oil price and the figures are very rough and the oil price could be 80 dollars by then, i just thought i'd try to cheer everybody up!

Thanks Barclay - we're cheered :o)

I think you can probably use a seven-day week for the calculation of oil output, as the nodding donkey doesn't get weekends off! I usually use a 360-day year, which is an old habit picked up from how banks calculate interest in certain currencies.

ST, do you think we will get a sp rise in the run up to Avington testing in 3 weeks time.

If testing is positive, this will surely add clout to Northerns assets.

http://northpet.com/news/news-2006/news/26-06-06.html

Good question, Barclay.

NOP's share in Avington isn't huge, only 5%, but it will be a useful addition if hydrocarbons are found. I'm not sure it's big enough to justify a lot of SP increase on pure anticipation, due to NOP's small share. The target is supposed to be 100 million bbl or upwards, which gives NOP 5 million barrels. Give it a net present value of 3 a barrel and that's 15 million; if the market reflects 50% of that value (which is about par for the course at the moment with NOP) you get 7.5 mil, divided by 70 million shares = 10.7p per share.

So on a fair view of current circumstances, the SP might go up 10p on news of success at Avington, maybe more if it gives a reviving kick to an oversold share. I've used a NPV estimate based on $60 oil with a 10% NPV factor; some people might prefer a lower oil price and higher NPV but it doesn't make a huge difference. (if you use $50 oil and 15% NPV factor your NPV/share is 13.4).

If of course the market should come over all bullish again then you'd be talking about a larger increase.

All in all, it's better than nowt, but it's no company-maker. The income from production would be nice though!

all IMO, PDYOR, etc.

Up 5.5p, doing quite nicely. Seems some of my holding is now creeping back up again....

Good news on production front, AFX news says Dutch licences recieved and
oil production could be started sooner than was originally planned.

I hope this news gets norther's share price heading towards a more justifiable value!

I hope we'll get some more detail in due course about how the production prospects have improved. Don't worry, Barclay, the SP will improve in time; I have a feeling that after the summer things might start to pick up.

Look on the bright side - at least we know what a cracking prospect Northern is, and you can't say that about every share.

Lots of takeover rumours going around! How much would you accept?

Anything that will leave me with enough to buy a house after tax!

Seriously, the last NAV of this co was just north of 3 a share. And since I firmly believe that NOP has ten-bagger potential, any T/O price ought to include some sort of a premium to reflect that. The problem is that if share prices are depressed as at present, co's like this one will be going cheap unless a bidding war starts.

I would rather wait and get my ten-bagger if it's all right with everyone. Then maybe I could add a few more shs along the way.

Sorry, let me clarify a little. I think that one day NOP could have a mkt cap in excess of 400 mil. At present, that's around 570p per share. I think 270p would be a reasonable offer for a cards-on-the-table, no-tears takeover if the alternative is a long wait for things to improve SP-wise, but I'm not in the industry and it's not my money. I think I'd feel insulted with much less than 250 though; it would be a pity to see this gem swallowed up by something larger and more pedestrian.

PS - there were takeover rumours in March too. Now it's July. Could just be a case of City boys trying to make their lives more interesting now that the football's over . . .

all IMO, DYOR, etc.

From the 19th June Panmure Gordon research note, produced after the results:

"We maintain our Buy recommendation and 320p price target."

This is already a ten bagger for me as initially bought in at 2.5p then 4p and then again at 4.5p. Obviously before consolidation of 5--1.
I hope a take over does not come off as I believe NOP management will deliver the goods for us all in the longterm and I am certainly in for that.
Although if someone offered me 3.20 pounds today I must be honest and say I would grab it with both hands.
There are other NOP,s out there!
Soultrader I think your market cap for NOP of 400 million in the future is conservative if they get Italy off the ground.
Think we are in for a blue week with NOP!

Good morning Ruthers, fair comment. Although I am reluctant to stick my neck out too far on the potential market cap as it's just too easy to say "This co will be worth a billion . By Christmas," and not have a clue what I am on about, hence my conservatism. JKX is my more or less my benchmark for what NOP could do. Agree that prospects in Italy are potentially very exciting.

Agree soul trader.
JKX are fortunate in that they have a production level of around 12000/day so a bit ahead of NOP and I think we need Italy on the move to reach these kind of figures and also if takeover was to happen it would be given a fair price as right now italy is only potential and gives very little to the share price where-as if it was producing from even one well then the potential of the rest become more real.
I am hoping NOP is my retirement and still have a few years to go so I hope we get to see this one through as I believe it has the most potential and one of the least risky plays in the exploration business.

soul* - not uninteresting though for better or worse a notifiable 48% is held by institutions and NMS is only 10,000 with averdage dealings a bare 500,000 .... indicates a very tight and thus volatile market

Cynic, it can be volatile in the right direction as well, though. Watch and see :o)


Here's a nice AGM statement from 26th July for those who missed it (i.e. me!).

I'd have thought that this would be worth a rise in the SP, but apparently not under the current market conditions.

Stock News - RNS
Northern Petroleum PLC - AGM Statement
For immediate release: 26 July 2006

Northern Petroleum Plc

(the 'Company')

Result of AGM & AGM Statement

At the Annual General Meeting ('AGM' or 'the meeting') of the Company held
today all resolutions were passed.

At the meeting the Chairman, Richard Latham, made the following statement:

'It has been a good year during which we have further established our position
to become the second largest onshore operator in The Netherlands and in terms
of area under management the second largest exploration licencee in Italy. We
now have proven plus probable reserves of 60.5 million barrels of oil
equivalent which has been independently evaluated by petroleum engineers.

Now that we have secured funding from the recent placing and with the support
of Standard Bank to provide the project finance, I can look forward to the
period ahead in which we will establish ourselves as oil and gas producers in
The Netherlands and conduct active drilling programmes in Italy and the south
of England.

It is noticeable to me that both Italy and The Netherlands have recently seen
an increase in the number of incoming oil exploration companies following in
the wake of a path which I feel we have set, that of seeking to put oil and gas
discoveries into development and conduct exploration in known petroleum systems
in safe parts of the world. I believe this last point is much overlooked by
many commentators and investors in an increasingly troubled political scene. We
have sought to acquire reserves and conduct our exploration in what we deem to
be safe and stable political environments. Our progress has been steady and I
believe we are about to reap the rewards of much hard work and patience without
being nervous as to legitimacy of title, government seizure nor in a material
way to the whimsical additional 'windfall profits' taxes by Finance Ministers
with a black hole.

Now that the award and transfer of licences in The Netherlands is being
realised our operations team is investigating possibilities to accelerate the
oil field developments and increase the initial levels of production. Once
these plans are finalised and receive local approvals I look forward to
advising shareholders.

I feel particularly confident that we have now built a very experienced core
team at a time when experienced personnel are greatly sought after. I am
impressed with the enthusiasm and dedication of the team, and this above all
else leads me to suggest that we should all have confidence in the future of
Northern Petroleum.

May I add, that whilst success can never be guaranteed - particularly in an E &
P company - it can be earned by intelligence, experience and sheer well aimed
hard work. It can then become deserved - and I and my Board feel that if any
team deserve success it is this one. They are a real pleasure to work with and
deserve our unstinting gratitude for a highly successful year. I have complete
confidence of even greater achievements next year and beyond'.

-Ends-

RNS out today:

Northern Petroleum PLC - Farmout Agreement
Embargoed: 0700 hrs on 23 August 2006

Northern Petroleum Plc

('Northern' or the 'Company')

Farmout Agreement

Wholly owned subsidiaries of Northern Petroleum Plc and ATI Oil Plc ('ATI')
have concluded a farmout agreement with Stratic Energy Corporation ('Stratic')
covering the Longastrino and Savio licences in the Po Basin in Italy, subject
to the usual governmental and regulatory approvals.

Under the terms of the agreement, Stratic has committed to fund the acquisition
of seismic data together with related technical interpretation work up to a
maximum of Euro 1 million in exchange for the options to drill a single well on
each permit to earn a 50% working interest in both permits. Stratic's total
commitment, if the options on both permits are exercised, is Euro 9.05 million.
At this time, both Northern Petroleum and ATI Oil, who currently each hold 50%
of the licences, will have their interest decreased by 25% respectively, with
Northern Petroleum (UK) Ltd retaining operatorship.

The Longastrino and Savio licences are located in the prolific Po Valley area
near the eastern coast of northern Italy, adjacent to Grove Energy's San Marco
acreage upon which the Abbadesse gas discovery has recently been made.
Furthermore, in 2002, the Agosta gas field was discovered by ENI on a licence
adjacent to Longastrino. Nine stratigraphic leads in the acreage have been
identified and further seismic data over the next six months will be acquired
to enable these leads to be firmed up for drilling in 2007.

Derek Musgrove, Managing Director or Northern, commented,

'We are delighted to welcome Stratic as partners to two of our Italian
licences. The Directors' past experience of success in Italy, with Enterprise
Oil, which was taken over by Shell, is certain to make a valuable contribution
to our combined efforts.'

For further information contact:

Northern Petroleum Plc Investec

Derek Musgrove, Managing Michael Ansell
Director
Tel: +44(0)20 7597 5000
Graham Heard, Exploration
Manager

Tel: +44(0)20 7743 6080

Panmure Gordon & Co Hansard Communications

Katherine Roe Chris Roberts / Ben
Simons
Tel: +44(0)20 7459 3600
Tel. +44(0)20 7245 1100

Notes to editors:

The Po Valley

The Po Valley is Italy's most prolific gas basis, having produced more than 4
tcf (trillion cubic feet) of gas since the 1950s from more than 30 fields.
Access to the area by international companies was restricted until the late
1990s as the state oil company had exclusive rights over the vast majority of
the acreage in the region. Most hydrocarbons (biogenic gas) in the region are
found in Pliocene or Pleistocene reservoirs in anticlinal thrust belts and,
lately, in stratigraphic traps. On the Longastrino and Savio permits target
reservoir zones are in the range 2,500 - 3,000 metres. Italy operates a 'drill
or drop' licensing regime, under which companies have the option, after
fulfilling data acquisition commitments, to drill a well to secure acreage into
further activity phases, or to drop the acreage if prospectivity is low. A tax
and royalty regime is operated in the country with an overall local and state
tax take of approximately 35%.

Northern Petroleum

Northern Petroleum is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company,
focussed on the EU, with major assets in the Netherlands, Italy and the UK.
Northern holds a 50% interest in 22 licences and successful applications in
Italy covering 12194 square kilometres which will represent the second largest
area under exploration in Italy by any one company.

Stratic Energy Corporation

Stratic is an international exploration and development company with gas
developments in Turkey, oil developments in the UK North Sea and exploration
acreage in Morocco and Syria. Further information can be found on the company's
website at www.straticenergy.com

Drilling due on up to nine leads in 2007, subject to these being confirmed by further seismic.

Looks promising for Italy, IMO; as it says in the RNS, the Po Valley is Italy's most prolific gas basin.

Why havn't we heard anything from Avington yet? The testing wassupposed to take 4 weeks, it's been about 6 weeks now.

Does this mean it maybe bad news on that score.