http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

While we wait,a post from anothwer board worth considering.

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What conclusions can we draw from the last few RNSs and GKP TV about how much useful revenue GKP is making at the moment?

9-10k bopd on 9th Jan (RNS) increasing weekly towards 20k and finally 40k bopd..

10K X $20 (from ID) X75% = $150k per day or $54.75m annum
15K X $20 X75% = $225k $82.12m
20K X $20 X75% = $300k $105.5m
30K X $20 X75% = $450K $164.25m
40K X $20 X75% = $800K $292m

Not too shabby.I think it is wrong to assume that GKP is in any way `distressed`.
AIUI, GKP are being paid too which is good news indeed.

$2.5billion pa additional to the Kurds too on offer.

The link to the full article at the bottom

BAGHDAD'S LATEST OFFER
Late last year, culminating years of autonomous oil-sector development, the KRG threatened to export large volumes of oil via Turkey without Baghdad's involvement. The threat became more credible when Erbil signed a private agreement with Ankara in November to bring Turkish-backed companies into the Kurdish oil sector, and when an improvised pipeline became partially operational in December between KRG oilfields and Turkish export terminals at Ceyhan. These factors -- along with U.S. and Iranian encouragement of Baghdad-KRG reconciliation ahead of Iraq's April 30 elections -- have driven the Maliki government to propose a new mechanism for exporting and monetizing KRG oil. Key elements include:

Marketing. The federal State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) and KOMO will jointly market KRG crude, with details such as price and end users preapproved by a joint high committee. Although this would represent a blow to Erbil's aspirations of independent marketing, it would have few tangible costs for the Kurds.
Revenue management. The proceeds from the marketed crude will be processed using conventional accounting methods at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). KRG crude revenues will enter the Oil Proceeds Receipt Account, with 5 percent remittance made to Kuwait via the UN Compensation Committee as required by UN Security Council Resolution 1511. Baghdad will then transfer the remainder of the KRG revenues each month to Erbil's control via a subaccount of the Iraqi Central Bank account at FRBNY, with the understanding that Baghdad would withhold this amount from its routine monthly transfers to the KRG (see below). This offer goes some way toward meeting Erbil's demand to maintain stewardship of KRG-derived oil revenues, even though the process would not be entirely under KRG control.
Revenue sharing. The new upside for Erbil comes in the form of enhanced revenue sharing. Baghdad is offering to reduce strategic expenses by excluding $15 billion of federal petroleum costs incurred in the southern oil fields, thereby raising the value of the KRG's 17 percent "take" of monthly national revenues by an incremental $2.5 billion this year.
Budget revision. The draft budget currently requires the KRG to produce 400,000 barrels of oil per day for the federal government or see deductions from its monthly transfer. This provision would be removed if the Kurds take the deal outlined above.





http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/baghdad-krg-negotiations-closer-than-ever-to-a-fair-deal

From the S Times (written out by me)~

`...Nobody could accuse Simon Murray, the legonnaire turned swashbukling businessman of shirking a fight.

As vice chairman of Indian power Co Essar Energy the 73 year old is in the thick of it. This week Mumbai`s billionaire Ruia brothers are expected to bid to buy out the minority investors in Essar Energy on the cheap.

Cue shareholder outrage. Murray is no stranger to controversy. The former Chairman of Glencore, Murray now chairs GKP, the scandal-hit Kurdistan explorer.

He was also director of Sino- Forest, which went bust in 2012 amid allegations of `institutional fraud`- something it has always denied

I haven't posted on this site for years as I use a competitor. I find it remarkable that there's not much posting here being that GKP has many followers elsewhere. Cyril do you post anywhere else as I recognize some names that you've brought here.

ajor,no but i read around and pass on info which imo is worthwhile knowing?
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Will they ever agree?

Talks between Kurdistan and Baghdad point to progress over oil laws
Tuesday, February 18, 2014 by Proactive Investors

Talks between Kurdistan and Baghdad point to progress over oil laws
Talks are underway between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad to reach a solution to a standoff over oil laws and arrangements for revenue sharing.

Oil has been flowed through the recently completed export pipeline to Turkey, though export sales have not yet happened - as the KRG engage in the negotiations.

Baghdad had opposed the KRG’s export plans and had threatened to cut the semi-autonomous region’s budgets if sales were had without its consent.

Last week promised a possible breakthrough, however, as Baghdad made certain proposals which are now being negotiated. The offer would keep oil marketing within Iraq’s control, though using the Federal Reserve Bank of New York it would give the KRG a degree of control over revenues.

“Baghdad's promising offer on oil exports and revenues could provide vital breathing room to build a permanent revenue-sharing law,” Michael Knights of the Washington Institute said in an article.

Knight also called on the US to encourage Iraqi Kurds to agree with Baghdad’s proposals.

A lasting resolution would provide long awaited clarity over the region’s oil laws, and would be a de-risking boost for those with investment’s in Kurdistan’s fast development oil industry........



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One such post i found most interesting,
-------------------------------------------------------------------------THE NEW GKP / Drilling for Super Giants (moderated) - GKP
hydrocarbon1 - 12 Feb 2014 - 11:26:10 - 340036 of 341014
This is the kind of thing we used to get on this BB
Courtesy of
1waving 12 Feb'14 - 10:40 - 32132 of 32132 1 0

SH-7 --- Into the interesting zones now.

SH-7 was at 2343m by 10th Jan so should be going through zones such as this one from SH-1 prior to entering the Permian:--
"This second Triassic test (2582m to 2849m) produced 6000 bopd of 53 to 55 degree API oil and 21 mmscf/day of gas or 10,000 boe per day."

Will they go straight down to the Permian or investigate further on such productive Triassic sections as above ?

Could be into the Permian from a depth of 3,000m onwards.


From RNS 23 November 2009 :--

'Triassic Results

The Shaikan-1 well reached total depth (TD) at 2950 meters. Gulf Keystone then
conducted its second test in the Triassic (the first Triassic test flowed 2000
bopd and 2 million scf of gas). This second Triassic test (2582m to 2849m)
produced 6000 bopd of 53 to 55 degree API oil and 21 mmscf/day of gas or 10,000
boe per day.

The first Triassic test was severely limited by surface restrictions and down
hole tool problems. Internal engineering analysis of the test data indicates
that the first Triassic zone could have flowed at rates up to 14,000 boe per
day.

This gives the Triassic section alone, potential aggregate rates of about 24,000
boe per day.

The final TD of 2950 meters was determined by the fact that Gulf Keystone
encountered a zone of very active oil and gas inflow immediately below a sealing
layer at 2940m. This zone also exhibited high bottom hole pressures, well in
excess of what was anticipated, and thus exceeded the design specifications of
the well and the well head equipment resulting in the need to seal off this
portion of the well bore. Although there is no certainty, reliable data from the
nearest existing well indicates that this zone is possibly 50 or more meters
thick. This high pressure portion of the Triassic as well as the underlying
Permian zone will be high priority exploration targets at the bottom of the
Shaikan-2 appraisal well scheduled to be drilled starting in mid 2010.'

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What i find quite staggeringis the size of SH-7 bole hole compared to SH-1 hole,

SH-7 17.5inchs @below 2300mtrs ref. 09/01/2014

SH-1 9&5/8" @ 2275mtrs. ref 30/09/2009

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Almost 6 weeks on since last update,will we get an OP. RNS or do we have to wait
for T/Depth?

http://www.albawaba.com/business/iraq-erbil-kurdistan-reconstruction-real-estate-534552

http://www.shafaaq.com/en/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=8990:plans-to-establish-a-second-oil-pipeline-from-kurdistan-to-turkey&catid=48:business&Itemid=73

Gulf Keystone Petroleum
I haven’t written much about GKP lately as I know that they have a very busy quarter coming up and there hasn’t been much news recently as the company keeps its powder dry. Shareholders in GKP are notoriously savvy and also a tad impatient so the dearth of news has been how you say, uncomfortable. So what have they got to look forward to and what is good news and what is less so?

In terms of how much they are producing and more importantly selling, I think the progress is still a bit pedestrian, as although they have received payment for two cargoes they are still waiting for one more. PF-1 is producing at nearly 10/- barrels a day which is a touch light but with Shaikan- 4 being worked over this should get up to nearer 15/- b/d by the end of March. Shaikan-8 which was due to be a gas injector may end up as a producer after all and PF-2 is due to completion next month and three wells are being prepared to feed it with a target of 20/- b/d although with sales uncertain at the moment I wouldn’t ink in too much revenue quite yet. Finally on drilling, Shaikan -7 which was about to spud when I visited back in June is still drilling, after some equipment problems, now fixed, I understand that the well is around three months away from TD as it is still in the Jurassic with the deeper and dicier Triassic still to come.

So whilst that news is ok, if a bit tardy what else is to come? Well I expect a host of announcements in the next month or two, all connected to the move up to the main market one way and another. The move will be accompanied by a new CPR which I expect in the second half of March and although there are some analysts expressing some concern about more possible than probable and proven it will be an opportunity for the company to give us all some real detail on the assets. The move up process, like almost everything, has taken longer than expected but if this really is imminent then it should be good news, after that the company can release results and get more information into the market.

The shares, like a lot of E&P companies, have suffered in the malaise attributed to the sector and in no way reflect the substantial value that exists in its portfolio. Rumours of bids and even the successful court case have not boosted the price at all lately and the chart is looking dangerously close to the 150p support, any further weakness and 130p is the next level. The company are doing all they can on an operational level to deliver the goods and over the next couple of months we shall see what this will mean, the truth is that they will need support from other operators in the region to restore faith in what is a notoriously tricky political and physical region. Whether it be oil sales by Genel and DNO, drill bit success by Hess or Chevron or cohesion between Erbil and Baghdad, as ever patience will be needed, I still think that the upside from this level is substantial but will be dependent in the first instance by a good CPR. Watch this space


Http://www.malcysblog.com/2014/02/oil-price-shell-ithaca-tullow-gulf-keystone-tv-finally/#sthash.hFRM2ydI.dpuf

http://www.basnews.com/en/News/Details/KRG-could-cut-water-supply-to-Iraq-to-put-pressure-on-Baghdad-/13484

<
Deleted post as no confirmation.

My question is will this ever go up ?....disappointing to say the least....

GFK is unfortunately still tainted by Cowboy Kozel, further damaged by his unseemly courtroom behaviour with the Excalibur Carpetbaggers

however, once the pipeline is completed, and a working relationship established with Baghdad, the i would hope that GKP sp will at least start to reflect the value of its apparent assets

AFR is certainly another that should be watched .... its holdings and assets in this region are very considerable, but if memory serves me correctly, these are only in their books at cost

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/notification-of-proposed-aim-cancellation/201402240700187357A/

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Will they(BP.) show interest ithe KRG?

The future of BP's flagship Rumaila oilfield in southern Iraq is in jeopardy after a bureaucratic snarl-up in Baghdad forced the company to axe a hundred crucial contractor jobs. The move highlights the mounting challenges facing western oil majors in Iraq, and bodes ill for the country's ambitious plans to revive an oil industry still recovering from years of war and sanctions. Some oil majors are so disenchanted with the difficulties of doing business in Iraq that they are considering leaving the country for good. - Financial Times

but kurdistan is damn nearly a separate entity, and therein lies the clue
worth noting that, unless i'm much mistaken, exxon still has its feet firmly in kurdistan, and exxon is effectively an arm of us gov't

Also worth noting.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/23/how-dire-is-the-situation-for-these-oil-majors.aspx?

"Exxon's capital expenditure rose during 2013 by 6.7% to reach $42.5 billion. Roughly 10% of this amount, or $4.3 billion was allocated toward acquisitions. But in 2014, the company is likely to maintain a similar amount of capex. Chevron's capex sharply increased by over 22% in 2013, year over year, and reached $41.8 billion. Out of this amount, $4 billion was allotted toward new acquisitions. Chevron also plans to maintain its capital spending at $40 billion. But the lack of growth in capex doesn't necessarily mean these companies will grow slower; this could suggest that there are fewer assets worth investing in at current oil prices. Moreover, it will allow these companies to keep their dividend payments and reduce the financial risk they may face."

and the relevance of the above?

Available funds which could be used, if they decided to make an offer?

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i.e. just a load of irrelevant clutter :-)