Gulf Keystone Petroleum
I haven’t written much about GKP lately as I know that they have a very busy quarter coming up and there hasn’t been much news recently as the company keeps its powder dry. Shareholders in GKP are notoriously savvy and also a tad impatient so the dearth of news has been how you say, uncomfortable. So what have they got to look forward to and what is good news and what is less so?
In terms of how much they are producing and more importantly selling, I think the progress is still a bit pedestrian, as although they have received payment for two cargoes they are still waiting for one more. PF-1 is producing at nearly 10/- barrels a day which is a touch light but with Shaikan- 4 being worked over this should get up to nearer 15/- b/d by the end of March. Shaikan-8 which was due to be a gas injector may end up as a producer after all and PF-2 is due to completion next month and three wells are being prepared to feed it with a target of 20/- b/d although with sales uncertain at the moment I wouldn’t ink in too much revenue quite yet. Finally on drilling, Shaikan -7 which was about to spud when I visited back in June is still drilling, after some equipment problems, now fixed, I understand that the well is around three months away from TD as it is still in the Jurassic with the deeper and dicier Triassic still to come.
So whilst that news is ok, if a bit tardy what else is to come? Well I expect a host of announcements in the next month or two, all connected to the move up to the main market one way and another. The move will be accompanied by a new CPR which I expect in the second half of March and although there are some analysts expressing some concern about more possible than probable and proven it will be an opportunity for the company to give us all some real detail on the assets. The move up process, like almost everything, has taken longer than expected but if this really is imminent then it should be good news, after that the company can release results and get more information into the market.
The shares, like a lot of E&P companies, have suffered in the malaise attributed to the sector and in no way reflect the substantial value that exists in its portfolio. Rumours of bids and even the successful court case have not boosted the price at all lately and the chart is looking dangerously close to the 150p support, any further weakness and 130p is the next level. The company are doing all they can on an operational level to deliver the goods and over the next couple of months we shall see what this will mean, the truth is that they will need support from other operators in the region to restore faith in what is a notoriously tricky political and physical region. Whether it be oil sales by Genel and DNO, drill bit success by Hess or Chevron or cohesion between Erbil and Baghdad, as ever patience will be needed, I still think that the upside from this level is substantial but will be dependent in the first instance by a good CPR. Watch this space
Http://www.malcysblog.com/2014/02/oil-price-shell-ithaca-tullow-gulf-keystone-tv-finally/#sthash.hFRM2ydI.dpuf