http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

My question is will this ever go up ?....disappointing to say the least....

GFK is unfortunately still tainted by Cowboy Kozel, further damaged by his unseemly courtroom behaviour with the Excalibur Carpetbaggers

however, once the pipeline is completed, and a working relationship established with Baghdad, the i would hope that GKP sp will at least start to reflect the value of its apparent assets

AFR is certainly another that should be watched .... its holdings and assets in this region are very considerable, but if memory serves me correctly, these are only in their books at cost

http://www.investegate.co.uk/gulf-keystone-petrol--gkp-/rns/notification-of-proposed-aim-cancellation/201402240700187357A/

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Will they(BP.) show interest ithe KRG?

The future of BP's flagship Rumaila oilfield in southern Iraq is in jeopardy after a bureaucratic snarl-up in Baghdad forced the company to axe a hundred crucial contractor jobs. The move highlights the mounting challenges facing western oil majors in Iraq, and bodes ill for the country's ambitious plans to revive an oil industry still recovering from years of war and sanctions. Some oil majors are so disenchanted with the difficulties of doing business in Iraq that they are considering leaving the country for good. - Financial Times

but kurdistan is damn nearly a separate entity, and therein lies the clue
worth noting that, unless i'm much mistaken, exxon still has its feet firmly in kurdistan, and exxon is effectively an arm of us gov't

Also worth noting.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/23/how-dire-is-the-situation-for-these-oil-majors.aspx?

"Exxon's capital expenditure rose during 2013 by 6.7% to reach $42.5 billion. Roughly 10% of this amount, or $4.3 billion was allocated toward acquisitions. But in 2014, the company is likely to maintain a similar amount of capex. Chevron's capex sharply increased by over 22% in 2013, year over year, and reached $41.8 billion. Out of this amount, $4 billion was allotted toward new acquisitions. Chevron also plans to maintain its capital spending at $40 billion. But the lack of growth in capex doesn't necessarily mean these companies will grow slower; this could suggest that there are fewer assets worth investing in at current oil prices. Moreover, it will allow these companies to keep their dividend payments and reduce the financial risk they may face."

and the relevance of the above?

Available funds which could be used, if they decided to make an offer?

">

i.e. just a load of irrelevant clutter :-)

Time to walk the dog,me thinks.

http://www.basnews.com/en/News/Details/Turkish-Energy-Minister--Kurdistan-is-our-only-solution-to-tackling-gas-prices/13637

From our AB partner.

http://ir.mol.hu/sites/default/files/2013_Q4%20FlashReport_ENG_0.pdf

"These include the fast - track development of the Akri-Bijeel Block, which could already deliver its first oil by the second quarter of 2014."

"In the Akri-Bijeel Block after the successful tests of the Bakrman-1 exploration well(maximum flow rates of 3,192bbl light density oil with 40°API gravity and 10.19 MMscfd gas inflow)the FINANCIAL STATEMENTS IN THIS REPORT ARE UNAUDITED 6 commerciality of the Akri-Bijeel block was decleared in Q4 2013.
Two appraisal wells are under drilling at the moment in the Bijell Appraisal area. Drilling of Bijell-2 continued, actual depth was 3,903 m at end of December. Bijell-4 was spud on 1st December 2013, depth was 1,898 m at end of December.
After sidetracking Bijell-7 is temporary suspended. Surface facility for early production is ready and the hydrocarbons shall be introduced immediately after to the completion of Bijell-1B.
Full coverage 3D seismic acquisition was continued and expected to be available in H1 2014.

o In Shaikan Block the Field Development Plan of the block was approved in 2013. Daily oil production from PF-1 has reached 10,000bopd, export of the Shaikan crude, produced through PF-1 is commenced in January 2014. Shaikhan-4 has been connected to PF-1 and the contribution from this well is scheduled to commence soon. PF-2 is scheduled to be commissioned by end of March 2014. Drilling at Shaikhan-7 continued, depth at end of December was 2187 m."

dalesman


We are told that Shaikan is huge, equivalent to the distance between Heathrow and City Airport.

Into this huge anticline we have only drilled 8 wells, which in term of the vast area covered by Shaikan is a very small number on which to assess reserves.

A reserve engineer will err on the side of caution.

He will calculate the volumes in a small radius around each drilled well and effectively say that within that small radius he can be certain of x million barrels which he assigns the tag P1 (Proven) he will then assign a further figure as P2 (Proven + Probably) and finally a P3 figures (Proven+ probable + possible)

The area that is covered by these figures, will be small and so in this first CPR I expect a low number to be assigned to 2P Reserves. That figure is only the beginning, the starting point and that figure will rise over time.

Just for emphasis I’ll say it again, this is not a final number.

As further development drilling takes place in the spaces between existing wells, this uncertainty due to extreme distances will be resolved. These gaps in understanding will be filled and the 2P figure will rise over time.

Determining what lies outside a small circle described around a well bore is a tricky business for the reserve engineer and his reputation will be on the line - hence I expect a conservative report.

If connectivity can be proved to his satisfaction between wells then the reserve figure will also rise and this may well be the case for some of the wells at Shaikan, particularly those clustered around PF1.

Without this additional insight the reserve engineer has no way of assessing if the intervals between wells are tight or the fracture system is continuous over a large area.

He needs to know the properties of the fracture system, its ability to channel oil to the well bore and he needs to assess the possibility of compartmentalization in various far flung areas of the field. (I'm thinking of the Shaikan 6 area)

The ultimate 2P figure will undoubtedly rise with time and with production, more insights will be available to the reserve engineer. The depletion rates will become available and these too can be fed into the equation. As an aside John G has said that the depletion rates at SH1 have been minimal – good news.

Add into this mix the application of enhanced recovery methods and the 2P reserves WILL rise. Shell raised a 0.3% RF to 30% in tight fractured carbonates in Oman using steam injection.

In conclusion to this section of my post I'm not at all worried about a lowish
reserve figure as it is just the starting point. The figure is needed for listing.

This figure also allows a considerable amount of reserve based lending to be available to the company.

As well as reserves a CPR will also allocate contingent/ prospective resources.

Reserves, Contingent and Prospective resources all require a recovery factor to be applied and this will be the first time that a definitive RF will have been produced.

Both CR and PR will have a value, which can be also be applied to GKP.


The reserve figure will in addition allows a considerable amount of reserve based lending to be available to the company should it be needed.

Indeed the current talk about these first reserve figures is actually a distraction.

We are at the beginning of the race towards the prize. The reserve figures will be considerably greater in the future and will increase as many more wells are sunk.

Look at the figures for DNO. Their reserve figures have been dramatically elevated over time as development wells were drilled.

As DNO has moved to drilling horizontal wells, DNO have also been increasing production. It is this increase in production that should be the focus for GKP PI’s, not reserves.

In addition (IMHO), we have not yet been given the final OIP numbers for Shaikan. Nothing has ever been quantified for the cretaceous and additional areas to the NW I believe have still not been included in the final figures. 21 billion OIP is IMO a distinct possibility and any such addition will lift the final valuation.

A major will have its own valuation and IMHO it will be applying figures for forward production and what it believes it can elevate that production over the length of the contract (which I think it would re negotiate) including the application of ERM.

I therefore don’t see a low ball CPR as a problem.

What we SHOULD be focusing on is the RISING production figs.

20,000 to 40,000 to 100,000 and on to 250,000 bopd +.

In all this talk about reserves these figures are conveniently being lost and yet it is the production figures that should be the prime focus for investors.

The reserve figures are only part of the mechanism for listing to be achieve.

Concentrate on the rising production and you then get a truer valuation of the company, and a greater understanding of the potential that GKP offers to its shareholders.

Kind regards

Dalesmann

A reserve engineer will err on the side of caution.

he might, but the likes of TK sure won't, he said cynically

hxxp://www.aa.com.tr/en/rss/294344--iraqi-speaker-kurdish-region-leader-to-discuss-oil?.

Iraqi speaker, Kurdish region leader to discuss oil

27 February 2014 20:13 (Last updated 27 February 2014 20:26)
Talks will address tensions over oil exports and budget distribution

IRBIL, Iraq

Iraq's Parliament Speaker visited Irbil on Thursday to hold talks with the Kurdish Regional Government's (KRG) leader in an attempt to solve tension between the sides over oil exports and budget distribution, according to diplomatic sources.

Tension has mounted recently between Baghdad and Irbil over the latter's right to export oil independently of the central government.

The Kurdish administration maintains it has a constitutional right to sign export deals without the prior approval of Baghdad, which, for its part, refuses to acknowledge agreements signed between Irbil and foreign oil companies.

Iraqi member of parliament Jamal Gailani told AA that Parliament Speaker Osama Al-Nujaifi would try to convince KRG leader Massoud Barzani to resolve the crisis.

"Iraq's budget could not be voted on after 57 Kurdish MPs did not attend the parliamentary session... Nujaifi will express demands to Barzani," said Gailani.

Iraqi lawmakers were set to meet Thursday to vote on a number of bills, but the session was postponed indefinitely because of a lack of quorum.

Relations between Baghdad and the KRG have been strained since early 2013, when Iraq's parliament passed a budget for the Kurdish region over Kurdish officials' objections.

Iraq, which holds the world's fourth largest oil reserves, had previously announced plans to increase its daily production to eight million barrels per day by the end of 2017.

Current daily oil output from KRG alone stands at between 350,000 and 400,000 barrels per day, according to the latest reports.

englishnews@aa.com.tr

WATCH: Todd Kozel, CEO of Gulf Keystone Petroleum, visits Kawargosk refugee camp in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

Gulf Keystone Petroleum give 1USD of each barrel of oil sold to support refugees in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company is dedicating human resources to make a lasting difference in the lives of the refugees.

Click here to watch

http://www.worldbulletin.net/news/129926/iraq-to-pay-kurdish-region-salaries-in-return-for-oil-revenues

EU Parliament discusses Erbil- Baghdad problems

EU parliament held a special session about the current tensions between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the federal government of Iraq in Strasbourg, France. Throughout the sessions EU PM, Charles Tannock talked about the Kurds and their rights. “the KRG can use its capital and resources independently based on the federal or confederation principles,” Tannock told the EU parliament. “KRG has been able to largely improve the principles of democracy and human rights, despite it being located in a very dangerous area,” said Tannock. Kurdish Representative in the EU, Dlawar Ajgeyi was present in the meeting and said “the EU MPs’ stance is very positive in regards to the Kurdistan Region, they expressed their support for Kurdish demands in the meeting.”...basnews.com

hxxp://www.basnews.com/en/News/Details/EU-Parliament-discusses-Erbil--Baghdad-problems-/13996

EU Parliament discusses Erbil- Baghdad problems
01.03.2014
BasNews, Erbil

EU parliament held a special session about the current tensions between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the federal government of Iraq in Strasbourg, France.

Throughout the sessions EU PM, Charles Tannock talked about the Kurds and their rights.

“the KRG can use its capital and resources independently based on the federal or confederation principles,” Tannock told the EU parliament.

“KRG has been able to largely improve the principles of democracy and human rights, despite it being located in a very dangerous area,” said Tannock.

Kurdish Representative in the EU, Dlawar Ajgeyi was present in the meeting and told BasNews: “the EU MPs’ stance is very positive in regards to the Kurdistan Region, they expressed their support for Kurdish demands in the meeting.”

According to information obtained by BasNews the EU is expected to release a statement condemning Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s use of violence in Iraq and his treatment of the KRG.
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