.

Blatant ramping of the worst kind.....

typical pro stance.,.

to be fair, it wasn't Pros's twaddle - but then i would never have wasted space by pasting it here

6 V 1 on L2 so it looks like it should rise again,back down the mine clip clop clip clop

Checking on line limits :

MAX BUY = 10K @ 234.35p

MAX SELL = 25K @ 232.5p


L2 is 1 v 1 @ 231.5 / 235

So many nods and winks flying around its funny.

However, this is good that its having the first part of a move up now, this is the beginning.

So many people said they would only invest in XEL AFTER a commercially proven flow test is done, and so there is lots of money waiting for good news in order to pile in, the money that will not accept risk but is happy to ride for smaller gains (in comparison to those who take the risk and get much bigger ones, or not) with no risk.

Its all adding up for the perfect re-rating, just hope that well flows well ! ;) and if it does, then the fireworks start for real.

Such a nice thread , wish everything I touched performed like this.

Worth highlighting this post by Gramacho from 25th Oct 2010.


http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn:XEL.L&threshold=1&it=le&action=detail&id=7130851&prevpost=7130795&nextpost=7130854

The results so far look fantastic.

Per the Edison note Xcite also plans to tag an upside structure play potentially seen on 3D seismic with this well and, if the 3D interpretation is confirmed, this would increase the best estimate contingent resources to 235mmbbls.

Back in May broker Arbuthnott said:
However, we do acknowledge that the companys internal analysis of the 3D seismic data is pointing towards potential recoverable reserves of c.200mmbbl; this is substantially higher than even our high case scenario. BTW their high case of 166mmbbls was worth 712p/share or 642p/share with todays share register.

Given a successful test I think Arbuthnotts analyst Dougie Youngson will need to fire up his evaluation spreadsheet and plug in 200 mmbbl+ reserves!

With 100% Net:Gross in this part of the field it would seem difficult for the horizontal to miss!! lol

FWIW I have updated the extensive horizontal well rate estimate predictions in Parts 1 and 2 of my earlier posts. These were based on a pay thickness of 87ft. Should the 113ft net vertical pay encountered in the pilot be representative of the horizontal well then this should boost well potential by about 250-300 bbl/day.


The Expected Scenario discussed in Part 2 now reads as follows:

The following scenario makes allowance for this being XELs first attempt at a horizontal well and operational issues producing a non optimal skin. It could be considered a P50 or best estimate.

Kh = 7500md (Mid point of indicated range from well test using MDT sample viscosity)
Mhu = 627mD (Down hole MDT sample)
Kv/Kh = 0.7 (XEL best estimate)
L = 500m with 20% of wellbore length non effective (Intended length for 9/3b-R)
DP = 750 psi (not in CPR, based on intended range of 500 800 psi)
S = 10 (Allowance for undetermined operational issues restricting sand face clean up)

The model yields a rate of 2370 2650 bbl/d which would be exceeded by about 10% in the actual well, i.e. 2600 2900 bl/d. Converting to L = 800m, modelled rate would be 2880 3230 bbl/d with about 10% more in the well, i.e. comfortably in excess of 3000 bbl/d.

Fingers crossed now that XEL get the sand control completion design right. That looks the only thing between us and great test result.


Call me picky but I would have liked more clarification of the Jurassic results. It sounds like the Jurassic did not come in but I will ask for clarification at the end of the well. It was small beer in the scheme of things and is far outweighed by the news of the thicker Dornoch Sands in Bentley.

Regards and GLA

Gramacho

Sold two thirds , 130%+ in three/four weeks was enough for me.

Cheers guys.

Good profit but perhaps too soon...lot more to come from this gem....

Am torn between being sensible and doing the right thing and sell half.....Monday could be sooooo good....and I know the opposite...

More chances of this being a great success than failure...fingers crossed....

Done the stupid thing ..........and bought somemore.......lol

interesting call isn't it ..... while with hindsight the heart regrets banking some hefty profits, the brain knows it was absolutely the right thing to do

l bought first thing this morning in volume at a tad shy of 222 and 226, and being a percentages player, intended to sell before mkt closed what with todays nice percentile rise ; but got carried away writing on bloody AMER thread and mkt closed..........

lol.,.

At a guess : another jump on monday morning......this could be valued somewhere between 300p to 400p on a good test.....(that's my estimated guess)....

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/22762/investors-bet-on-north-sea-success-as-xcite-hits-a-new-record-22762.html

Investors bet on North Sea success as Xcite hits a new record

Friday, November 05, 2010 by Jamie Ashcroft
Share

Xcite Energy (LON:XEL, TSX-V:XEL) is certainly living up to its name with the share price up almost 50 per cent this week and an incredible 500 per cent in the past year.

This of course is a pivotal period for the heavy oil specialist, which is developing the Bentley field 100 miles east of the Shetland Islands.

Work on well 9/3b-6 began in September and the Ocean Nomad semi-submersible rig hit its target depth at the end of last month. The next step is a 500 metre horizontal drill from the eastern flank of Bentley into the main pool. Flow testing will occur later this month.

Initial results showed the oil column was around 40 foot thicker than expected, with 113 feet of oil in a high quality Dornoch reservoir. The oil column has 100 per cent of oil net-to-gross, while oil-water contact at 3,729 feet.

Its this information which lit the blue touch-paper under the share price, and elicited some very positive comments from Xcites finance director Rupert Cole when we interviewed him shortly after the release of the update on October 25.

This is a significant outcome as it justifies the placement of the horizontal well, he told Proactive Investors.
The 100 per cent net to gross is outstanding.

Xcite believes the results from the pilot section will lead to a significant increase in the Bentley fields oil in place.

Indeed Coles view was echoed by Arbuthnot Securities analyst Dougie Youngson. This is a fantastic result for Xcite and should give investors encouragement in the drill programme, he said.

The share price, up 34.48p at 248.98p today, is slowly homing in on the valuations set by the brokers of between 235p and 299p a share.

However they were set long before Xcite began work on 9/3b-6. The current drill programme could significantly de-risk the project, which in turn would transform the valuation of this company.

A successful outcome of the 9/3b-6 well should significantly de-risk the project and remove shareholder doubts regarding the technical ability to bring Bentley on-stream, with the potential to unlock shareholder value, said Edison analyst Ian McLelland in a recent research note.

The neighbouring close analogue Bressay field, operated by Statoil, will also provide additional confidence of success as it is moved through development.
Although technically it is difficult to compare Xcites contingent resources to the 2P resources of the majority of its North Sea peers, the company is trading at a low level for the region.

Chief executive Richard Smith and his team should be applauded for the way they have tackled what is a tricky and lets face it unfashionable project.

Heavy oil in the North Sea is not the sort of thing that normally gets investors pulses racing. Off-shore Ghana perhaps. Northern Kurdistan definitely.

But Xcite has the managerial expertise in this field of getting this more viscous crude out of the ground. It has found the financing for the first stage of what is essentially a development project. And most importantly it has brought on board a number of blue-chip partners including Amec and BP under the umbrella of the Bentley alliance and yet has still maintained control of the project.

The company intends to fund most of its field development through an alliance structure with key project partners, McLelland said.

As well as providing the necessary billion dollar funding required for such a major North Sea development this points to the confidence major industry players have in working with Xcite.

Funding details and partner off-take agreements for both the first stage production and full field development have still to be published and these will ultimately determine the netback value to Xcite.

Flow testing of well 9/3b-6 later this month will determine whether Bentley is commercially viable. But if all goes according to plan we could see oil production from the field next year.

According to one report, the plan is to be extracting 15-20,000 barrels a day using a floating jack-up rig through to 2014, when it is hoped Xcite's commercial partners will have a more permanent solution ready to take over. Plateau production is expected to hit 60-80,000 barrels a day.

EO. (Encore) - Market Cap presently 367 million.

Potential of "Cladhan" = 300 mmbo OIP.
Recovery @ 40% = Cladhan 120 million barrels recoverable
Encore share is 17% = Cladhan for Encore Maximum 20.4 million barrels.

Presently proven OIP is just 89 million barrels so presently Cladhan represents 6 million barrels net to Encore.

In summary :

Cladhan presently represents 2C of 6 million barrels and upside with more drilling is 20.4 million recoverable barrels total.

Catcher is very similar for Encore as Cladhan.

So in summary the present 369 million market cap is supported by 2C of approx 12 million recoverable barrels (6+6) and upside potential which would take it to perhaps 50 million recoverable barrels (generous 25+25).

Throwing Encore a very generous 15 US$ a barrel in the ground as its light crude
that would mean.

Present 12mmbo net to EO. recoverable = 111m (using a 15 US$ in ground price)
Going for 50mmbo net to EO. recoverable = 465m (using a 15 US$ in ground price).

But market cap is presently already 367m.


++++++++++++++++++

Compare to XEL

Going for what looks like 200mmbo recoverable. Use a 10 US$ per barrel in the ground price, discounted due to heavy oil but raised for new government tax breaks on heavy oil production.

100% owned.

200mmbo x 10 US$ = 1,242m (potential to be up to 235mmbo recoverable)

Present market cap of XEL is about 377m (adding on recent shares)



In summary based on market caps and based on a successful flow test and based on the drilling results so far giving a 100% gross to net for the pay and a thicker pay by 40 feet resulting in a hoped for 200mmbo recoverable I would suggest :

EO. has a lot of future success in the price already, but should still rise but not by too much or too quickly as a lot is already in there.

XEL has very little in the price "if" success comes with the flow test and should rise by significant amounts on good news due to its present undervaluation.


Ignore the share price rise, look at the reasons why and the potential ahead and what the valuation metrics should be. As is the case of RKH as is the case of XEL, they own 100% of the project and so valuing them you do not have to cut out the other partners shares, as the oil is 100% to one company and not shared between many.


(Just illustrates the potential of XEL, not aimed as a dig at EO., which I know is popular with many people, just in case the post grinds a few people who own EO.)

PROS - the above MAY have some validity, though it would be useful to know the source - certainly not you - so please advise so one may judge it's impartiality

personally, i am very happy to be holding and doing extremely well from both stocks