anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

Mauritania Weighs On Exposed Oil Stocks

Thursday, August 04, 2005 3:17:18 AM ET
Dow Jones Newswires



0701 GMT [Dow Jones] Media reports of a coup in Mauritania are putting downward pressure on the shares of oil companies participating in the region, says Bridgewell Securities. Dual-listed Hardman (HDR.AU) has most exposure, having "material exploration portfolio in the region." Roc (ROC.AU), Premier Oil (PMO.LN), Sterling Energy (SEY.LN) and Dana Petroleum (DNX.LN) also exposed. The main source of information is likely to be Woodside (WPL.AU), the dominant operator in the region, which said this morning that it has maintained normal drilling operations. (PBA)

Don't panic Mr Mainwaring. Sell-off over. Normal service has been resumed.

So it seems pondy.........

I would still like to see something from Harry concerning the deal that he cut with Ould Taya, before I will believe that normal service has resumed.

denjonn on the another BB found this thought you might like a look

In today's 'The Business'


Small oil firms wait nervously for outcome of Mauritanian coup
By : Richard Orange August 07, 2005
PRESIDENT Maaouiya Ould Taya may not be the only victim of Wednesday's bloodless military coup in Mauritania - the world's newest and poorest petro-state. Smaller oil companies that have staked their future on a coming oil boom in the West African desert nation will be spending the weekend nervously checking on every news update.

Their reward for years of involvement in the country was not due to arrive until next March when the offshore Chinguetti discovery begins pumping 75,000 lucrative barrels per day. Set to cash in are the operator, Australia's Woodside, its partners, and, crucially, Mauritania's new rulers. Alongside Woodside are Australia's Hardman Resources, Roc Oil and UK firms BG Group, Premier Oil, and Sterling Resources.

But will they ever see the money? The biggest risk - that the new government comes in and tries to change the licence terms - is unlikely to come to pass. Chinguetti will produce Mauritania's first ever oil revenues and even the new junta won't want to jeopardise that. The junta, led by Colonel Ely Ould Mohammed Vall, has pledged to honour all of Mauritania's international obligations. It plans to rule for two years through a 17-member Council for Justice and Democracy.

One UK oil firm, though, has reason to be nervous. Sterling Energy's Mauritanian strategy is staked on its relations with the government and, crucially, with oil minister Zeidane Ould H'meida.

If he is ousted, the company could potentially see some of its existing deals questioned, while future deals may become impossible. Thus far, it is not clear whether he will go. The new leader, Colonel Ely Ould Mohammed Vall, was the director of national security in the deposed government.

In October Sterling brokered a deal under which it lent the government $130m to fund Mauritania's share of Chinguetti's development in return for the company pocketing two-thirds of the proceeds from the government's 12% stake. It paid the Mauritanian government $15m (8.4m, E12.3m) and paid $5m to a Kuwaiti company. What puzzled some was that fact that Mauritania could have funded its share more cheaply with $200m of unused loan capacity from the World Bank.

Sterling has been gearing up to repeat the Chinguetti deal when the government exercises its stakes in the Tiof field - thought to be three times the size of Chinguetti. Harry Wilson, Sterling's chief executive told The Business before the coup: "We saw that this model of funding the government in return for a slice of reserves could last for four to five fields. After that they'd be able to do it on their own."

The other risk is security. The junta will hold on to power longer than those behind the three last coups. But its leader may hit resistence beyond the capital. The lack of spilt blood may not last.

With Chinguetti 80km offshore, fighting won't halt oil developments. Further inland, though, it could halt France's Total, CNPC and Baraka Petroleum from exploring.

After sheltering Saddam Hussein's family in the first Gulf war, Taya attempted to win back US backing, announcing support for Israel. This, combined with harsh treatment of Islamist insurgents led to growing anger against his rule.

Earlier this year, nearly 200 people, including former President Mohamed Khoum Ould Hialeah, were put on trial for a series of alleged coup plots. There may also be a deeper struggle for dominance among rival powerful tribes. With the prospects of oil wealth also a likely driving force, Mauritania may be the latest nation to suffer the oil curse.

Mauritania's economy grew at 4% in 2004 but it remains the poorest country in the Arab Maghreb Union. Per capita income is only $443 and almost 30% live on less than $1 a day.

denjonn on another BB found this thought you might like a look

In today's 'The Business'


Small oil firms wait nervously for outcome of Mauritanian coup
By : Richard Orange August 07, 2005
PRESIDENT Maaouiya Ould Taya may not be the only victim of Wednesday's bloodless military coup in Mauritania - the world's newest and poorest petro-state. Smaller oil companies that have staked their future on a coming oil boom in the West African desert nation will be spending the weekend nervously checking on every news update.

Their reward for years of involvement in the country was not due to arrive until next March when the offshore Chinguetti discovery begins pumping 75,000 lucrative barrels per day. Set to cash in are the operator, Australia's Woodside, its partners, and, crucially, Mauritania's new rulers. Alongside Woodside are Australia's Hardman Resources, Roc Oil and UK firms BG Group, Premier Oil, and Sterling Resources.

But will they ever see the money? The biggest risk - that the new government comes in and tries to change the licence terms - is unlikely to come to pass. Chinguetti will produce Mauritania's first ever oil revenues and even the new junta won't want to jeopardise that. The junta, led by Colonel Ely Ould Mohammed Vall, has pledged to honour all of Mauritania's international obligations. It plans to rule for two years through a 17-member Council for Justice and Democracy.

One UK oil firm, though, has reason to be nervous. Sterling Energy's Mauritanian strategy is staked on its relations with the government and, crucially, with oil minister Zeidane Ould H'meida.

If he is ousted, the company could potentially see some of its existing deals questioned, while future deals may become impossible. Thus far, it is not clear whether he will go. The new leader, Colonel Ely Ould Mohammed Vall, was the director of national security in the deposed government.

In October Sterling brokered a deal under which it lent the government $130m to fund Mauritania's share of Chinguetti's development in return for the company pocketing two-thirds of the proceeds from the government's 12% stake. It paid the Mauritanian government $15m (8.4m, E12.3m) and paid $5m to a Kuwaiti company. What puzzled some was that fact that Mauritania could have funded its share more cheaply with $200m of unused loan capacity from the World Bank.

Sterling has been gearing up to repeat the Chinguetti deal when the government exercises its stakes in the Tiof field - thought to be three times the size of Chinguetti. Harry Wilson, Sterling's chief executive told The Business before the coup: "We saw that this model of funding the government in return for a slice of reserves could last for four to five fields. After that they'd be able to do it on their own."

The other risk is security. The junta will hold on to power longer than those behind the three last coups. But its leader may hit resistence beyond the capital. The lack of spilt blood may not last.

With Chinguetti 80km offshore, fighting won't halt oil developments. Further inland, though, it could halt France's Total, CNPC and Baraka Petroleum from exploring.

After sheltering Saddam Hussein's family in the first Gulf war, Taya attempted to win back US backing, announcing support for Israel. This, combined with harsh treatment of Islamist insurgents led to growing anger against his rule.

Earlier this year, nearly 200 people, including former President Mohamed Khoum Ould Hialeah, were put on trial for a series of alleged coup plots. There may also be a deeper struggle for dominance among rival powerful tribes. With the prospects of oil wealth also a likely driving force, Mauritania may be the latest nation to suffer the oil curse.

Mauritania's economy grew at 4% in 2004 but it remains the poorest country in the Arab Maghreb Union. Per capita income is only $443 and almost 30% live on less than $1 a day.

Dr Square,

Thanks for posting that, and it mirrors my concerns re SEY going forward from here.

I have every confidence in the management, and SEY have proved they can deliver as a company, but, just as we are aproaching delivery, Ould taya is deposed in a coup!

My main concern is of course the relationship between SEY and the new governemt, and whether or not their contract will be honoured.

This throws the imediate future into some doubt, and most holders seem to have either sold or top sliced.

To date I have done neither, but am considering my options as SEY is one of my largest holdings.

What a shame that a well run company with many loyal holders waiting patiently have possibly had their reward as investors taken away by totally unconnected events!

Thanks Doc. Like Andy I am watching and waiting.

Stock Ould Dog
(I think the seriousness of the situation requires my full name)

Sad to see my risk statement coming to pass. ref earlier posting
However been here before many times - though not in Mauritania.
These events tend to be corriographed
The new lot are not too different normally to the old bunch, in many cases they are the same people under a different label.
In spite of the posturing the Govt of the day still needs revenue etc and usually continue to act out previous arrangements.
This generally is an attempt to get international acceptability, long term loans and assistance continued.
I would be very surprised if SEY management have not got a contingency plan and the necessary arrangements in place
For the present I hold my position, though I will be watching like a hawk for signs that are different to the normal "little local difficulty"

Stockdob,

;-)




Sunray41,

I agree that I expect the new government to require the funds, and international acceoptance will only come from honouring contracts made previously, but it's the SEY special arrangement that concerns me.

They have (apparently) paid the $15,000,000 signature bonus, so with a new regime in place, and the money paid to the old one, will the agreement still stand?

I have contacted SEY, and am awaiting a reply.

i am away in beautiful Cape Cod and this all starts. not only a coup, but SWW - not a holder! at least buy a cheeky 25,000 to keep it on your books!

seen this all before. lived in indonesia through the Suharto departure, was trading he Philippines when Estrada was overthrown and traded Malaysia when Mahatir imposed the capital controls...(hey maybe i attract this stuff!).

In ALL cases, upheavel followed the staus quo with optimism. ALL commercial agreements were not only unchanged after the takeovers but in fact reiterated and enforced. these contracts are the lifeblood of thje nation and not to support an SEY contract would be seen as political and national suicide. you think these guys want sanctions. Pakistan is a great e3xample, sure there was upheaval but all the multinationals were welcomed and invited with open arms and in some cases enlarged contracts.

As said in posts above, don't panic. if anything there may be some great trading opportunities but NO WAY 97 million will be taken or repaid. if they did they would invite sanctions and then would be royally fcuked.

keep the faith, ride out the storm and for g-ds sake SWW buy a scap to keep me happy!

rgds
PT (ps i highly recommend whale watching)

proptrade,

At the AGM the $97 million was still banked in London!

No fears there for me, just the $15 million, and the ongoing royalty payment.

Still holding, albeit ponderously!

Things do look dark at the moment and the above thoughts mirror mine.

I bottled and sold and have no quarms in having done that.

Of course I also believe there is a very good chance that this will trun around, but I do not see the poiunt in risking my money till it does.

Those that are brave may experince a champagne cork effect on the sp if that happens and you will deserve it.

Good luck, I will still monitor and contribute if I have anything relevant.

Hello prop.

Just saw your post.

I'll think on it.

Did you swim with Great Whites?

Or was that just your Missus?

proptrade - thaks for words of wisdom which echo my own position. BTW as you suggest, the common factor in one's life experiences is, of course, oneself!

SWW - is a quarm a new sub-atomic particle peculiar to the oil business?

s(o)d

It is a mixture of the Charm quark - whether it is the up or down variety is anyones guess.
Nam

Prop - I can go back to the days of the Sukarno " foundations " and Dr M putting the squeeze on.
Nothing changes and they dont tend to kill the goose no matter the public posturing.
Have a good hol --- but watch the sharks !!
sr

Mauritanian Goverment Developments, (This keyboard can't speel)

Just been quoted 19.22p for 50k online.

So, any sells over 19p are in fact buys imo.

SEY had a tremendous wright up & recommendation in Money Week on Friday, obviously written before the advent... i am pretty shore the share price would have gone up instead of going down a little, & because the price is reasonably stable i will hold. Regards goal.

I dont think it will hold.

I see this drifting down until the situation is made more transparent in respect of Sterlings interests.

Someone has said the Oil Minister is still in place, which may help matters.

Obviously the spectre of Civil War is never far away either.

You can't please all of the people all the time